Hurricane forecasting evolving with new storm surge products, upgraded modeling
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season will likely be below-normal, but that’s no reason to believe coastal areas will have it easy.
For the hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, NOAA is predicting a 70 percent likelihood of 6 to 11 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including zero to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). While a below-normal season is likely (70 percent), there is also a 20 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.
“A below-normal season doesn’t mean we’re off the hook. As we’ve seen before, below-normal seasons can still produce catastrophic impacts to communities,” said NOAA Administrator Kathryn Sullivan, Ph.D., referring to the 1992 season in which only seven named storms formed, yet the first was Andrew – a Category 5 Major Hurricane that devastated South Florida.
![Outlook_2015_FINAL[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/outlook_2015_final1.jpg?quality=83)
“The main factor expected to suppress the hurricane season this year is El Niño, which is already affecting wind and pressure patterns, and is forecast to last through the hurricane season,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “El Niño may also intensify as the season progresses, and is expected to have its greatest influence during the peak months of the season. We also expect sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic to be close to normal, whereas warmer waters would have supported storm development.”
Included in today’s outlook is Tropical Storm Ana, but its pre-season development is not an indicator of the overall season strength. Ana’s development was typical of pre-season named storms, which often form along frontal boundaries in association with a trough in the jet stream. This method of formation differs from the named storms during the peak of the season, which originate mainly from low-pressure systems moving westward from Africa, and are independent of frontal boundaries and the jet stream.
With the new hurricane season comes a new prototype storm surge watch/warning graphic from NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, intended to highlight areas along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts of the United States that have a significant risk of life-threatening inundation by storm surge from a tropical cyclone.
The new graphic will introduce the concept of a watch or warning specific to the storm surge hazard. Storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property from a tropical cyclone, and it can occur at different times and at different locations from a storm’s hazardous winds. In addition, while most coastal residents can remain in their homes and be safe from a tropical cyclone’s winds, evacuations are often needed to keep people safe from storm surge. Having separate warnings for these two hazards should provide emergency managers, the media, and the general public better guidance on the hazards they face when tropical cyclones threaten.
Also new this season is a higher resolution version (2 km near the storm area) of NOAA’s Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model (HWRF), thanks to the upgrades to operational computing. A new 40-member HWRF ensemble-based data assimilation system will also be implemented to make better use of aircraft reconnaissance-based Tail Doppler Radar data for improved intensity forecasts. Retrospective testing of 2015 HWRF upgrades demonstrated a five percent improvement in the intensity forecasts compared to last year.
This week, May 24-30, is National Hurricane Preparedness Week. To help those living in hurricane-prone areas prepare, NOAA offers hurricane preparedness tips, along with video and audio public service announcements at www.hurricanes.gov/prepare.
“It only takes one hurricane or tropical storm making landfall in your community to significantly disrupt your life,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Joseph Nimmich. “Everyone should take action now to prepare themselves and their families for hurricanes and powerful storms. Develop a family communications plan, build an emergency supply kit for your home, and take time to learn evacuation routes for your area. Knowing what to do ahead of time can literally save your life and help you bounce back stronger and faster should disaster strike in your area.”
NOAA will issue an updated outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.
NOAA also issued its outlook for the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific basins. For the Eastern Pacific hurricane basin, NOAA’s 2015 outlook is for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season. That outlook calls for a 70 percent probability of 15 to 22 named storms, of which 7 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, including 5 to 8 major hurricanes. For the Central Pacific hurricane basin, NOAA’s outlook is for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season with 5 to 8 tropical cyclones likely.
Be afraid…be very afraid.
Well, if the past few years of NO hurricanes is normal, I’d like to see how far below normal they can go.
Prepare to be… STARTLED:
This was first put out in March, and issued publicly again on April 12
http://www.weatherbell.com/2015-hurricane-forecast
Lower end numbers are far more likely.
With ENSO induced strong wind shear,
virtually all systems will be forced to
develop outside of the deep Tropics.
1992 would likely be a good analog.
7-total storms. Andrew was sheared
into an open wave before it was dynamically forced in the sub-tropical
Atlantic.
Another bunch of useless scenarios.
For useful forecasting, head to The Tropical Meteorology Project:
(Dr. Philip J. Klotzbach, Dr. William M. Gray. Colorado State University – CSU), at http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/
They will be issuing a seasonal update of the 2015 Atlantic basin hurricane forecasts on Monday 1 June.
Dr Kongpop U Yen has been working on the correlation between solar flaring and tropical storm formation and intensification. The correlation is impressive to behold (Large M and X class flaring causes storm formation and intensification, lack of flaring sees them weaken and/or fail to form).
While ever our sun remains as quiet as a mouse I would expect the hurricane/cyclone/typhoon drought to continue (not that you’d know it, since every storm is now “unprecedented” in the media’s eyes).
In the sense that the world is never quite the same as before, every phenomenon is ‘unprecedented’ if you go into sufficient detail…
haha.
A fair point.
Oh, I thought political hacks did the hurricane forecasts with Hollywood productions.
How many years of “below normal” must we experience before “below normal” because “normal”?
How about a post-mortem on last year’s forecast, and maybe for the past 10 years? How good / bad are these forecasts? And please, for the love of God, change the color scheme on the pie chart: low numbers of hurricanes in green, medium number of hurricanes in yellow, high number of hurricanes in red!
An interesting Article on the Major Hurricanes that hit the Gulf Coast in the early 1960s.
Summary for OilPro Here
The OilPro article Monster Hurricanes: The Gulf Of Mexico O&G Industry Comes Of Age is based upon a paper in PDF (31MB) by Professor Joseph A. Pratt, Chairman of History at the University of Houston. “The Brave And The Foolhardy: Hurricanes And The Early Offshore Oil Industry,” (pages 117-135) (2005)
The article is centered around what the Oil Industry learned about major hurricanes as it stepped out into deeper waters on the shelf in the late I950s and during the 1960s.
The takeaway here was the apparent climate change of a series of catastrophic hurricanes that blew the 100-year storm and 100-year wave predictions out of the water. So, it is an example of a change in extreme weather that can serve as a benchmark in talking about future storms as we bask today in the longest hurricane landfall drought on record.