Guest essay by Joseph D’Aleo and Allan MacRae
Global warming alarmists continue to over-emphasize the danger of heat and ignore cold in their papers and in stories for the media. The danger associated with this misdirection is that cold weather kills many more people that hot weather.
This conclusion is clearly supported by many studies of populations in a wide range of climates. Examples are provided below from a study of thirteen countries, as well as national studies from the United Kingdom, the USA, Canada and Australia.
Furthermore, this conclusion is not new, but has been known for many decades.
WORLD
Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings were published in The Lancet.
The Summary states:
[excerpt]
We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA.
…
We analysed 74 225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7.71% (95% empirical CI 7.43–7.91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3.37% (3.06 to 3.63) in Thailand to 11.00% (9.29 to 12.47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7.29%, 7.02–7.49) than by heat (0.42%, 0.39–0.44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0.86% (0.84–0.87) of total mortality.
…
Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimize the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios.
[end of excerpt]
UNITED KINGDOM
The UK Guardian examined Excess Winter Mortality after the 2012/13 hard winter. A total of about 50,000 Excess Winter Deaths occurred that winter in the UK.
[excerpt]:
Each year since 1950, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) has looked at excess winter mortality…
Excess winter mortality was 31,100 in England and Wales in 2012/13 – up 29% from the previous year. Figures for Scotland were also released recently showing a much smaller increase in winter deaths, up 4.1% to 19,908. In Northern Ireland meanwhile, the raw numbers were low but the increase was large – a rise of 12.7% to 559 deaths.
The methodology behind the maths is surprisingly simple; the ONS take an average of deaths in winter (those in December to March) and subtract the average of non-winter deaths (April to July of the current year and August to November of the previous year). The result is considered ‘excess’.
[end of excerpt]
In the milder climates of western and southern Europe, the Excess Winter Mortality is greater than in the colder northern climates, where people are more accustomed to colder winters and homes are built to keep the residents warm (better insulation and central heating). Also energy costs in Europe are much higher due to the early adoption of inefficient and much more expensive renewable energy schemes.
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UNITED STATES
Similarly, the USA death rate in January and February is more than 1000 deaths per day greater than in July and August.
Indur M. Goklany wrote in 2009 [excerpt]:
Data from the US National Center for Health Statistics for 2001-2008, shows that on average 7,200 Americans died each day during the months of December, January, February and March, compared to the average 6,400 who died daily during the rest of the year. In 2008, there were 108,500 ‘excess’ deaths during the 122 days in the cold months (December to March).
[end of excerpt]
– National Center for Health Statistics
MORE RECORD LOWS THAN HIGHS IN USA
Despite claims that extreme heat in increasing and cold decreasing, the data the un-adjusted state extreme temperature data shows the opposite.
23 of the state all-time record highs occurred in the 1930s and 38 before 1960. There have been more record lows since the 1940s than record highs.
Source: Dr. John Christy, Senate and House Testimony
CANADA
Statistics Canada also reports deaths by month. The graph below shows that the Canadian death rate in January is more than 100 deaths/day greater than in August, for the years 2007 to 2011. See more here.
AUSTRALIA
Even down under in Australia we see the same story. Queensland University of Technology found (Source Science Daily) Australians are more likely to die during unseasonably cold winters than hotter than average summers.
[excerpt]
Across the country severe winters that are colder and drier than normal are a far bigger risk to health than sweltering summers that are hotter than average.
QUT Associate Professor Adrian Barnett, a statistician with the Institute of Health and Biomedical Innovation and the lead researcher of the study, said death rates in Australian cities were up to 30 per cent higher in winter than summer.
The researchers analyzed temperature, humidity and mortality data from 1988 to 2009 for Adelaide Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney.
Professor Barnett said the finding that hotter or more humid summers had no effect on mortality was “surprising.”
“We know that heat waves kill people in the short-term, but our study did not find any link between hotter summers and higher deaths,” he said.
[end of excerpt]
WINTER ECONOMIC IMPACT
An article in the Associated Press stated: [excerpt]
There’s something strange about the U.S. economy in the first three months of every year: It frequently grows at a much slower pace than in the other nine months…
Alec Phillips, an economist at Goldman Sachs, noticed that from 2010 through 2014, growth in the first three months of the year has averaged 0.6 percent, while it has averaged 2.9 percent in the other three quarters.
And Macroeconomic Advisers, a forecasting firm, has found that the pattern goes back further: Since 1995, outside of recessions, the first quarter has grown at half the pace of the other three. [end of excerpt]
The government agency charged with calculating the economy’s growth rate said it would adjust its methods in an effort to resolve the problem. Other economists, including at the Federal Reserve in Washington, have concluded that the government’s figures are largely accurate. The first-quarter weakness over the years may be due in part to harsh winter weather.
Hot weather deaths on the St. Louis news mostly involve the elderly who are unable or unwilling to run air conditioners and have their windows nailed shut for security from my memories. There are also the cases where infants or children are left in cars by unfit parents (which there are many of in the ghettos). There is also the occasional kid at summer football practice who dies of an otherwise undiagnosed condition exacerbated by the heat and excess humidity which is so plentiful along the Mississippi river.
the National Weather Service reports far more deaths from hot weather than cold which appears to be the source of Obama’s recent comments that heat kills. Our Government provides something for everyone.
They give number of deaths for hot and cold weather, but these deaths are for “Extreme Cold” and “Extreme Heat”. However they give no definition of what they consider “Extreme”.
They also provide a summary of Natural Hazard Statistics report including Monthly Weather Related Fatalities. These are much higher in the summer months than in the winter months. However they give no information on how such is defined or collected.
Entropy. Basic thermodynamics. The environment “wants” to pull us complex creatures to its equilibrium level, which is usually far below the temperature of the human body. Among other factors to be considered: radiation, wind chill and heat index (effect of humidity). All this should be elementary to atmospheric researchers and readily explicable for competent media.
Statistics are skewed in the US due to such factors as poverty and immigration, but I think sun exposure needs to be looked at very carefully, and more specifically, vitamin D3 levels. Taking a pill does not give the same effect as getting some sun every day. Our bodies are adapted to being outside most every day.
Studies looking at vitamin d supplementation are flawed due to the extremely small amounts given as compared to how much is made in a person’s skin from exposure to sun.
Living in a higher latitude, I take a D3/K2 capsule at 5,000 IU/1100 mcg once a week during the months of Nov. thru March. I have never been a fan of sunblock, nor of purposely baking in the sun. Moderation in all things.
A couple of points regarding Christy’s record state high and low temperatures:
• His numbers include temperatures that match past records. For example, Connecticut’s 1995 record high matches 1916, and South Dakota’s 2003 record high matches 1936. If the original dates of the extremes are used, the lack of new records is even more pronounced.
• The 1994 record highs for Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico were all set at weather stations created between 1986 and 1991 in the hottest parts of their respective states. (Hmm. Did this influence the installation of a new station in Death Valley in hopes of beating the 1913 record?)
Growing up in a cold climate area, Northern Iowa, I remember the sisters of my good friend’s dad commenting on living in Southern California vs Iowa…..”it’s just easier”…..in 1962. Good to see the smartest people in the room are catching up to 1960s midwest hayseeds.
It’s much harder to dig holes and fill them in when the ground is frozen.
Yes Allan, but I have always wondered, why the 17th century, which was the centre of the Maunder minimum, was Holland’s “Golden Age” during which miserable weather did not prevent that country to be become wealthy, as Commerce and the Arts prospered and blossomed.
(Simon Schama -” The Embarrassment of Riches”, 1988)
Hello Albert,
At the risk of starting a religious war on these pages, I suggest that Holland’s Golden Age had much to do the Rule of Law and greater economic freedom that the Protestant Reformation brought to European societies.
During the cold Maunder and Dalton Minimums of the Little Ice Age, there was huge loss of life in Europe – the populations of some Northern nations reportedly declined by up to ~25%. Nevertheless, these societies did advance.
To try to “fight climate change”, they also burned tens of thousands of witches – almost equal to Al Gore’s carbon footprint. Plus ca change, plus ca change pas.
I would really like, just for comparison, look at similar graphs for countries/states without cold winter.
Is there stats like this available for Florida or for Bahamas and such?
Hi Udar – please see Figure 2, Table 1 and Table 2 from The Lancet study.
This data supports the hypo that adaptation is the key to survival in winter – and perhaps flu shots when they work). Adaptation includes better home insulation and heating systems, and cheap reliable energy,
The very high death rates attributed to cold weather occur in China, Italy, Japan and the UK.
The next highest group includes Australia, South Korea, Spain, and the USA.
Next come Canada, Sweden and Taiwan.
Brazil and
TaiwanThailand have the lowest death rates.http://www.thelancet.com/action/showFullTextImages?pii=S0140-6736%2814%2962114-0
The Yellowstone Plateau in winter is one of the coldest places in North America – mid-latitude, but high altitude and continental interior. Even in summer the nights can drop to hazardous temperature levels, and rain can aggravate the problems. If you go there to work or play please heed an advisory from the Wyoming Game and Fish Department that is also pertinent elsewhere:
“Make camp while you still have a reserve of energy. Allow for the fact that exposure greatly reduces your normal endurance. You may think you are doing fine when the fact that you are exercising is the only thing preventing your going into hypothermia. If exhaustion forces you to stop, however briefly:
Your rate of body heat production instantly drops by 50% or more. Violent, incapacitating shivering may begin immediately. You may slip into hypothermia in a matter of minutes.”