From the El Nino didn’t come this year department
Source: http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/
WASHINGTON – Warm temperatures in February contributed to further snowpack decline in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada, according to data from the third 2015 forecast by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). Snowpack in Nevada, Utah and Idaho also fell further behind normal.
“Nearly a third of our SNOTEL sites in the Cascades and Sierra Nevada are reporting the lowest snowpack ever measured,” NRCS Hydrologist Cara McCarthy said. “For the first time, some sites were snow-free on March 1st. These areas can expect reduced summer streamflow.”
Recent storms helped relieve dry conditions in the Southwest. However, drought conditions persist in California, Nevada and Utah, as well as in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado. Areas in Washington and Oregon also remain in drought.
In Western states where snowmelt accounts for the majority of seasonal water supply, information about snowpack serves as an indicator of future water availability. Streamflow in the West consists largely of accumulated mountain snow that melts and flows into streams as temperatures warm in spring and summer. NRCS’ National Water and Climate Center scientists analyze the snowpack, air temperature, soil moisture and other measurements taken from remote sites to develop the water supply forecasts.
The Cascades of Oregon and Washington have received near normal levels of precipitation this water year, but it’s mostly fallen as rain instead of snow. Rainfall captured by reservoirs in those states will help mitigate dry spring and summer months.
NRCS monitors conditions year-round and will continue to issue monthly forecasts until June. The water supply forecast is part of several USDA efforts to improve public awareness and mitigate the impacts of climate change, including drought and other extreme weather events. Through the creation of the National Drought Resilience Partnership, launched as part of the President’s Climate Action Plan, federal agencies are working closely with states, tribes and local governments to develop a coordinated response to drought.
Since 1939, USDA has conducted snow surveys and issued regular water supply forecasts. Other resources on drought include the U.S. Drought Monitor. For information on USDA’s drought efforts, visit USDA Disaster and Drought Information. And to learn more about how NRCS is helping private landowners deal with drought, visit the NRCS’ drought resources.
View information by state
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According to Wikipedia, California has had two mega-droughts in the last millennium or so: 850 AD – 1090 AD (240 years) and 1140 AD – 1320 AD (180 years). But who cares, given the complete lack of news or political value in history?
I knew this would happen!
More than one person has pointed out that California has had normal rain this year so far. Yes, the reservoirs are not full enough! But this is due to huge population growth and water use coupled with hardly any change in water reserves!
My family lived in California since the Gold Rush. The bellowing about the rain shortage is most irritating. If people hate the dry weather so much, maybe they can all move to Michigan. But they won’t.
“Yes, the reservoirs are not full enough! But this is due to huge population growth and water use coupled with hardly any change in water reserves!” +1
Fortunately two of the largest reservoirs, Shasta and Oroville, are significantly above last year at this time. However with the lower snow pack, we will see what the rest of the year brings.
The numbers. Since 1970, California’s population has grown 87%. It’s water storage capacity has grown 28%. Agriculture, which ordinarily under western water law takes priority by prior use doctrine, takes the hit. Goofy state.
The American “Geophysical” Union rallies to send a letter to Senator Ted Cruz.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/af/Klan-in-gainesville.jpg
Go away.
Now I’m confused. Where’s the catastrophic change? Are these the reasons the Earth’s civilized, democratic part needs to be taxed idle?
Since economic growth seems to have a beneficial impact on atmospheric CO2 levels, there is still one more thing worth trying. Let’s leave the green supermen to save the planet with their own devices. Sooner or later Gaia will bless these areas with water in one form or another and homo sapiens sapiens can be given a break.
Apologies for my inadvertent lapse in political correctness. The more neutral term is perhaps ‘green lanterns’.
All that Californian snow has gone off to southeastern Europe. Det “Polar Vortex” duzza strainch tings peeple!
Snow pack levels are only important because humans have set up a society that depends on them. Mother Nature doesn’t give a damn about what humans want or need. Oh, and as a reminder, Florida is full don’t come here.
Um USDA, there is no indication of increased weather extremes or drought based on your fantasy called global warming. Got it?. Good. 😒
Jet-stream synoptics — unusual cold (and heavy snow) in the east & unusual warmth (and little snow) in the west is not an uncommon situation. The only thing unusual is the fear-mongering and hand-wringing — at least compared to the last couple centuries.
Virgin sacrifices are no longer popular remedies, so fossil-fuel sacrifices have become popular.
Anthony There are different enso events. The type of event we are in now is a weak enso 3.4 very similar to the very warm dry western winter in 76-77. ( see the chart at the end of this linked) The enso was supposed to be a modoki event. We have just had the 5th straight month of the enso 3.4 above .5C, which is indicative of the weak modoki. Our forecast from weatherbell.com forecasted a very cold winter over the east and midwest, further east than last year. . The se pac hurricane season was as close to 1976 as you can get. The November this year went after 1976. This was followed by a very similar Dec/Jan that we saw in the 1957-1958 winter. I dont mean to sound harsh, but broad brushing any enso event simply is not the right thing to do. In fact we may find the interior southwest spring, like the fall turns wet. Remember after the enso event of 76-77, the el nino continued and it got wet in the southwest the following wnter . While this winter is dry and I expected it to be wetter there ( bust) , there are many sensible events that turned out very close to the result of the enso event we are looking at, most notably the major eastern cold in the latter part of the season. The sudden SOI crash in mid Jan, was similar to what we saw in Jan 10 that preceded snowmeggedon ala mid atlantic, and if you remember the cries of winters over were ringing out loudly that winter too. If you look at the entire set of enso events where 3.4 is warmer than 1.2 than you will see February went to the cold that is the signature of that. I would suggest an objective player on this matter is the excellent JAMSTEC site, as it seems to be unbiased observer of the whole thing.
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html
The opening statement from them:
ENSO forecast: The SINTEX-F model prediction and present observations show that an “El Niño Modoki”condition prevails in the tropical Pacific. As per the model predictions the warmer than normal SST anomalies are expected to continue in the central Pacific through the boreal summer.
But all enso events are not created equal and the warm water that is still present around Australia will continue to limit what this can get to. The most dangerous enso winters in the east are the warm PDO but the enso 3.4 warmer than 1.2, which has cooled to below normal. As this evolved the hammer from the arctic responded. We may have it again next year!
I would also suggest reading Nemias on the winter of 57-58 http://www.calcofi.org/publications/calcofireports/v07/Vol_07_Namias.pdf and also Nemias on the winters of the late 1970s as they supply insight into the type of enso events we are looking at. One thing I will say, the winter this year did not blend analogs nicely. Its like a family reunion. Everybody starts drinking and sometimes they all get together and are nice, sometimes fights break out. This winter was the latter. It seemed like different analogs took over at different times.. starting with 76-77 then going to the 57-58 event ( which was a multi year event).. CPC agreed with our assessment that we are in a very similar period decade wise as the late 1950s.) I think the danger, and you saw it with the noaa forecasts, is to broad brush the enso event. We are in a period where the PDO is spiking but overall is going be cold in the decadol sense. The atlantic is cooling as Gray/Klotzbach show with their AMO, which I think is the gold standard on that. The point is you have many things, including the solar, that are going at once. In fact I think this is the golden age for meteorologist, as we are getting a chance to really observe what has happened before, but could not see.I believe we are in a great climatic shift again, opposite of the sudden warming of the late 1970s and there will be a collapse of Pacific SST’ within a couple of years.. If you look at the evolution in 1957-1961 you can see this. After the cooling in the early 50s, it warmed late, then went into the tank after that. Once the Atlantic flips for good, then its on against the AGW ilk as there should be the corresponding global temp drop that will make the post enso drops we have seen since 2007 look like childs play. I think we are heading back, by 2030 to where we were in 1978 global temp wise, at the end of the last cold cycle and I think overall we are very close to the late 1950s with that.
57 was much stronger than where we are now, and I think we could see this get to moderate, but too much going against it in other parts of the basin to allow the kind of super nino that the AGW ilk cherishes and busted severely on from last April. Of that there is no doubt. . They are getting their warmer readings more so because of the NPAC and their super nino missive was a huge bust. In any case, the latest 3 month in Feb, though not on this yet, was .6 which would fulfill the 5 month .5 or greater needed to “declare” the enso event. Notice how these weak events are associated with the major cold eastern winters!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
cheers mi cumpare
[Thank you sir. .mod]
Which brings up something I have been thinking for a while. What can be discovered regarding a prolonged La Nada, neutral, El Nado and the subsequent swing up or down? This extended pattern of not being either one may be an important predictor. How long has it been since we have had such an extended period of time?
I think that is an excellent question myself.
Great comment, Joe. One question: Do you think it’ll be pretty much downhill from here to 2030, or will there be a bump upward in between that will have the AGW crowd claiming proof of AGW?
JB, no doubt the Modoki call was nailed and verified. But why such a rant on a poorly worded headline? JAMSTEC models you quoted (the past few years) also were bullish on precip for all of west coast for DJF….Modoki included. It’s all in the opening statements of their seasonal outlooks as well….just scroll a wee bit. Something about a “California Nino”….
What on earth did CFS and JAMSTEC especially see in their seasonal forecasts for west coast precip being above average? –They should have looked in the atmosphere– Your accurate warm west cold east played out well, when there is a warm west cool east it is almost always is dry in CA with Nino, Nina or nada. only exception I know of is 77-78 El NIno The CFS forecast an El Nino signature precip pattern and JAMSTEC was almost a combo Nino and Nina for WA, OR and CA.
How important is the wind you can see after the temperature of Humboldt. La Nina is coming.
Will rapidly accrete the ice around Antarctica.
We know with absolute certainty that snow pack has been much lower for a much longer period of time in the not-so-distant past.
http://www.hcn.org/issues/44.22/underwater-forest-reveals-the-story-of-a-historic-megadrought
got about 10″ of snow today (maine) I will gladly send them.
actually not positive on amount as I have not steppe doutside all day but is at least 8 and some drifts around 14 so 10 is an informed estimate.
[Come on! Sno’ claims of scientific inaccuracy without a measurement at least! We require a ruler in the snowbank, standard deviations, trends over the past years, and at least one peer-reviewed ruler. 8<) .mod]
LOL you come shovel off deck and I will then take measurement from protected area i use 🙂
living up here in snow country we get pretty good about estimating at a glance and it is odd for me to be off more than 2″ and thats usually only when a lot of drifting.
been a bad year, burned out more snow blower belts (some cost 80$) this year than last 4 years combined. not so much the amount but the amount in short time in Feb and having to move the banks back. get odd looks when people see a tractor sitting close to vertical in a snow bank clearing the tops off. deestone superlugs directional lugged tires REALLY dig in well LOL
too well sometimes but I digress.
just over 9″ so I was close enough for climate science…
Raining hard at 500ft ASL and raining/snowing similarly in the Washington State Cascades and Olympics.
No shortage of moisture here!
See Joe Bastardi’s Satuday Update: http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-march-14-2015
He’s predicting a late, cold, wet spring for the Great NorthWet……
And Seattle just set an all time record high amount of rainfall for the date. The water is out there, just that a persistent ridge of high pressure is keeping it out of California. Not a global climate issue — a local weather issue.