An a-scientific paper, poor contribution of NGS to the enlightenment of its members.
Story submitted by Michel de Rougemont
I just finished reading the article « The age of disbelief » in the March edition of the National Geographic.
It is one of the most a-scientific articles about science that I ever could read.
Joel Achenbach, the author, pretends that sceptics have no place in the scientific debates because of their incompetence, their prejudices, their doubts in science, and, last but not least, their alienation to powerful lobbies, as for example the fossil fuel industry in climate matters.
First he makes a nice amalgam between deniers, as for example opponents to vaccine or flat earth believers, and sceptics. He may not have ever tried to learn what a sceptic is looking for, what are the motives of not being satisfied with generally accepted beliefs.
Then he looks for an authority, which we should all obey, that settles the scientific truth, or at least the correct way toward this truth. Here he demonstrates his inability to conceive that such authority cannot exist. Scientific societies can laugh about such pretension, well knowing how chaotic their progresses are. Only IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, not a scientific but a governmental institution created in 1988) and its followers have that arrogance.
Amazingly he affirms: “In this bewildering world we have to decide on what to believe and how to act on that”. I agree with this statement. But for him a sceptic who forged his opinion on contradictory evidences is just making the wrong decision. And since he wants to believe in approximate theories such as the anthropogenic nature of climate change, this is a settled “consensus” that no one dares question.
When he will have looked at disturbing facts that IPCC never explains, as for example that the glaciers began to melt long before the industrial age, that the rate of rise of the seas was already quite spectacular at the end of the 18th century, that two periods of warm have alternated with two cold ones over the past two millennia without having anything to do with the burning of fossil fuels, and that the rates at which temperature or sea level are varying show no correlation with the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide, then he may ask why anthropowarmism has installed itself as indisputable dogma within the past thirty years.
He would like science to stay in the realm of rationality, but he is advocating dogmatic views. This article was a poor contribution of the National Geographic Society to the enlightenment of its members.
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my first wife when she was my girlfriend in London we split up. I had nothing to do with her for a month or something then I got on a train in some French railway station and I sat down opposite to my first wife. 2 weeks after that I got on a ferry in Italy and she was waiting on the gangway knowing I would be there and I knew she would be on that boat although I had only that day decided to do that.
This sort of ridiculous set of coincidences suggests to me there is more going on than “science” can explain.
NG gave me my first glance at the nude female form, so they have had a special place in my memories. But now they are dead to me.
I kid you not, this author received an award in 2011 from the National Capital Area Skeptics…who claim to be “Promoting Critical Thinking and Scientific Understanding.” They (and he) seem to be out to do anything but that.
Orwell would be proud.
National Geographic started dying in the 80’s when it started doing liberal social articles. By the end of the 90’s it did few articles on its traditional topics and I cancelled my subscription.
“First he makes a nice amalgam between deniers, as for example opponents to vaccine or flat earth believers, and sceptics.”
What a cheap and ugly propaganda trick, quite similar to the techniques of Stalinism & co. There, the destroyed enemies of the “Revolution” were not only “Skeptics” of the beloved leader Stalin and his infallible truth, but were also declared to be “Capitalists”, Enemies of the simple people”, “Secret clericals and tsarists”, “Immoral sex-freaks”, “Sick lunatics” and so on and on…
Just read Orwell’s “ANIMAL FARM” and you know it all…
Such poor and shame-less propaganda methods do only expose the pitiable intellects of some CAGW proponents!
“opponents to vaccine”
I just noticed there isn’t even a plural here: “vaccine”, as in THE vaccine “science”.
Influenza or smallpox vaccine, it’s the same thing: vaccine!
You criticize the MMR vaccine? You must be a smallpox DENIER!
Buy all or trash all.
Expect more of this from the newly-released movie Merchants of Doubt. Roger Ebert.com gave it a thumbs-up even though it admits:
” The film is mainly useful as one-stop shopping for the opposition. Scored with mischievous caper music, it keeps revisiting an ominous (and purely metaphorical) archive filled with damning documents (picture the warehouses at the ends of “Citizen Kane” or “Raiders of the Lost Ark”). It uses computer graphics and digital compositing to show incriminating papers gliding out of folders and floating through the air as if manipulated by accusing spirits, and superimposes the filing cabinets with news footage of industry bigwigs and hired “experts” going on talk shows and appearing before government committees to deliver an approved script.”
Reasonable, rational people doubt what only appears to be science at first glance. They are able to dig deeper in other words, rather than being content to being sheeple. All of the things he mentions are pretty well grounded in science, with the exception of climate “science”.
Pretty well grounded is not science
Science is the never ending search for fact.
A disappointing but predictable contribution to the agw debate. Defines the sceptical argument as denying reality of climate change a logical fallacy. A sceptical argument is that climate change is real has always been real and will always be real. The fallacy sidesteps the real argument that climate sensitivity isn’t any whete near as sensitive to CO2 as models predict.
I’m sure the article will find a persuaded contempory audience and will be heard up as absurd in ten years time.
I did not renew my subscription of COSMOS (a so called Australian scientific magazine) because they were engaging in ad hom attacks on skeptics and I will seriously consider doing the same to my National Geographic subscription because they appear to have completely lost the plot in the last 12 months. A bit disappointing considering that I have subscribed to this once worthy magazine for about 39 years.
BA in political science … well that settles it.
(That’s almost like a degree, right?)
It’d probably pass for a science degree these days.
Like countries that feel the need to put the word ‘democratic’ in the name of their country – there is so little support for it that it is necessary to advertise. We-too fields that append ‘science’ to their discipline names are exactly the same. They’d best advertise because what they do would not be recognized as science. The fact the ‘University Lite’ courses have played heavily in whatever ‘debates’ there are in climate science is telling. Maybe in some distant future, when doomers have all retired and some progress is made in Climate, they will feel confident enough to simply call the study “Climate”. I hate that the venerable science of Geology has egregiously been “liberalized” and belittled by baptism about 30 years ago with the moniker ‘Earth Sciences’. It still sounds like something from agriculture (oops I mean agricultural sciences). I also hate it that the naked emperors of this domain are the heads of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. The ozzies have even felt the need to shore the field up even more with Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Centres of Excellence, because the ‘excellence’ wasn’t showing through adequately. Soon, if trends mean anything, we will be able to call them ‘Democratic Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Centres of Excellence”.
… and they will have DEASCE jobs …
If you have to put “science” as part of the name of your discipline, it isn’t.
The world might be in for some dark dystopian future if science is ever dictated from a set authority and has become religion to much of the populace. Even if their picture of skepticism was accurate in this case, which it isn’t.
We are living in the “Twilight Zone” of climate science.
Where a planet that is greening up and most of it’s life is responding positively to the best weather and climate since the Medieval Warm Period has resulted in widespread claims of just the opposite.
What can one expect from a society that tried to drown the Statue of Liberty… the poor lady.
I am sure similar articles would have been written by the church in Galileo’s time. You know, the ones who believed the sun orbited the earth.
Couldn’t disagree more. The concept that “we have to decide what to believe” is very juvenile, belonging in the realm of concrete thinkers rather than genuine inquirers. For myself, I am more than capable of holding two contradictory thoughts at the same time. Once we decide what to believe we move from scientific inquirers to campaigners who are no longer open to contradictory evidence.
…. slow clap…
There’s an antibiotic for that.
“Belief” is an inherently un-scientific concept. I “believe” in God, but I have _confidence_ that most current life-forms developed the way they are through evolution. But I don’t BELIEVE in evolution. I don’t have FAITH in evolution, because “faith”, like “belief”, is a RELIGIOUS concept.
I “believe” and “have faith” in concepts that cannot be proved. If it’s provable, I expect proof – or at least some evidence that I can be “confident” in.
Not true. “Believe in” means nothing more than “accept the evidence for”. If you believe in evolution, than you accept the evidence that has been presented for it; no more, no less.
Ultimately, it almost always comes down to having to accept somebody’s word. We cannot reproduce every experiment for ourselves.
Not in the language you’re writing in. 🙂
The Befuddled Autumn;Where Have All the Colors Gone?
[FINAL Edition]
The Washington Post (pre-1997 Fulltext) – Washington, D.C.
Author: Achenbach, Joel
Date: Nov 3, 1990
Start Page: d.01
Section: STYLE
The non-hysterical person would have to admit there are some fabulous bursts of gold in the sugar maples, some yellow action in the cottonwoods, an occasional red oak that lives up to the billing, but for the most part the leaves seem confused, stuck between green and brown, laden with chlorophyll when they should be showing off their anthocyanin and carotene and xanthophyll. You could plot the great trees on a map with a single box of red pins: a fine maple on Macomb two blocks off Connecticut, a good bank of oaks near Pierce Mill in the Rock Creek Park, and so on.
From Oct. 6 to 15, when a cold snap should have shocked at least some color into the leaves, the average high temperature in metropolitan Washington was 82.4 degrees. Now it is early November and shirt sleeves are still in order. At Baltimore-Washington International Airport it is the warmest year on record, and it is the second warmest at National Airport. Before the year is out, National Weather Service meteorologist David Miskus said yesterday, 1990 may go down as the warmest year in the Washington area since the Grant administration.
For a real injection of gloom one might talk to Bill McKibben, author of “The End of Nature.” It is a book of immense gravity, even the blurbs on the jacket are scary (“It’s a matter of life and death to read this book,” says one from Harold Brodkey). McKibben said this week that he’s enjoyed a great fall up in the Adirondacks, but still feels the weight of global warming. That’s because nature used to be something apart from man, something immutable, greater, untouchable, but now is just another human artifact. “It’s finally dawning on us that we do have the power to alter the world in fundamental ways,” McKibben says. “Before, the leaves changing color was something that just happened, and now we’re beginning to understand that we may have a large role.”
Achenbach is a native of Gainesville, Florida and graduated from Princeton University in 1982 with a B. A. degree in Politics.
The question was “Science or dogma?”
For National Geographic Society it is sadly now always dogma.
Science does not sell any more and political masters demand dogma.
This is worth a share to anyone who still accepts the dogma
https://m.youtube.com/watch?t=324&v=4Ew05sRDAcU
Many years ago I cancelled my subscription to National Geographic (after more than 20 years subscription) when it became obvious that almost every article had an element of green/warmist propaganda.
Like many publications it had become infested with leftist/green editorial control.
I have not looked at one of their issues since.
I found this interesting in the National Geographic article. First Achenbach tells us that we are largely motivated by emotion and the need to fit in and remain tight with out peers. “People still have a need to fit in, and that need to fit in is so strong that local values and local opinions are always trumping science.”
Then, having just explained how peer pressure is always “trumping science,” he goes on to explain how to use peer pressure to convert climate skeptics. “Throwing more facts at them doesn’t help… people need to hear from believers they can trust, who share their fundamental values.” In other words, use trusted peers, rather than facts and science, to persuade them. His laughable example of the use of such persuasion is a conversation between Liz Neeley and her skeptic father:
Liz asked her father, “Do you believe them or me?” She told him she believes the scientists who research climate change and knows many of them personally. “If you think I’m wrong,” she said, “then you’re telling me that you don’t trust me.” Her father’s stance on the issue softened. But it wasn’t the facts that did it.
Since when have alarmists ever tried to use facts? They have always appealed to authority, as well as emotion, peer pressure, exaggerated speculation, and the output of climate models. None of which have anything to do with facts.
You convinced me, I think.
Now could you say it again, but slower ?
The line between arrogance and stupidity is easy to cross.
Playboy Magazine: Naked white girls.
National Geographic: Naked brown girls.
When I was about 10 my grandmother paid $500 to get me a lifetime subscription to National Geographic. Lets just say that was about 50 years ago. Many time I thought about canceling my subscription, but because it was already paid for I figured I better get my Grandmother’s money worth. I can’t bear to read the articles, so I look at pretty pictures. However when this issue came I tossed in in the garbage without removing the plastic cover. I didn’t have to read the article to know it would be full of bull.
The Tempest
By Joel Achenbach
Sunday, May 28, 2006
As evidence mounts that humans are causing dangerous changes in Earth’s climate, a handful of skeptics are providing some serious blowback
IT SHOULD BE GLORIOUS TO BE BILL GRAY, professor emeritus. He is often called the World’s Most Famous Hurricane Expert. He’s the guy who, every year, predicts the number of hurricanes that will form during the coming tropical storm season. He works on a country road leading into the Front Range of the Rocky Mountains, in the atmospheric science department of Colorado State University. He’s mentored dozens of scientists. By rights, Bill Gray should be in deep clover, enjoying retirement, pausing only to collect the occasional lifetime achievement award.
He’s a towering figure in his profession and in person. He’s 6 feet 5 inches tall, handsome, with blue eyes and white hair combed straight back. He’s still lanky, like the baseball player he used to be back at Woodrow Wilson High School in Washington in the 1940s. When he wears a suit, a dark shirt and tinted sunglasses, you can imagine him as a casino owner or a Hollywood mogul. In a room jammed with scientists, you’d probably notice him first.
He’s loud. His laugh is gale force. His personality threatens to spill into the hallway and onto the chaparral. He can be very charming.
But he’s also angry. He’s outraged.
He recently had a public shouting match with one of his former students. It went on for 45 minutes.
He was supposed to debate another scientist at a weather conference, but the organizer found him to be too obstreperous, and disinvited him.
Much of his government funding has dried up. He has had to put his own money, more than $100,000, into keeping his research going. He feels intellectually abandoned. If none of his colleagues comes to his funeral, he says, that’ll be evidence that he had the courage to say what they were afraid to admit.
Which is this: Global warming is a hoax.
“I am of the opinion that this is one of the greatest hoaxes ever perpetrated on the American people,” he says when I visit him in his office on a sunny spring afternoon.
He has testified about this to the United States Senate. He has written magazine articles, given speeches, done everything he could to get the message out. His scientific position relies heavily on what is known as the Argument From Authority. He’s the authority.
“I’ve been in meteorology over 50 years. I’ve worked damn hard, and I’ve been around. My feeling is some of us older guys who’ve been around have not been asked about this. It’s sort of a baby boomer, yuppie thing.”
Gray believes in the obs. The observations. Direct measurements. Numerical models can’t be trusted. Equation pushers with fancy computers aren’t the equals of scientists who fly into hurricanes.
“Few people know what I know. I’ve been in the tropics, I’ve flown in airplanes into storms. I’ve done studies of convection, cloud clusters and how the moist process works. I don’t think anybody in the world understands how the atmosphere functions better than me.”
In just three, five, maybe eight years, he says, the world will begin to cool again.
We sit in his office for 2 1/2 hours, until the sun drops behind the mountains, and when we’re done he offers to keep talking until midnight. He is almost desperate to be heard. His time is short. He is 76 years old. He is howling in a maelstrom.
Parallel Earths
HUMAN BEINGS ARE PUMPING GREENHOUSE GASES INTO THE ATMOSPHERE, warming the planet in the process.
Since the dawn of the industrial era, atmospheric carbon dioxide has risen steadily from about 280 to about 380 parts per million. In the past century, the average surface temperature of Earth has warmed about 1 degree Fahrenheit. Much of that warming has been in the past three decades. Regional effects can be more dramatic: The Arctic is melting at an alarming rate. Arctic sea ice is 40 percent thinner than it was in the 1970s. Glaciers in Greenland are speeding up as they slide toward the sea. A recent report shows Antarctica losing as much as 36 cubic miles of ice a year.
The permafrost is melting across broad swaths of Alaska, Canada and Siberia. Tree-devouring beetles, common in the American Southwest, are suddenly ravaging the evergreen forests of British Columbia. Coral reefs are bleaching, scalded by overheated tropical waters. There appear to have been more strong hurricanes and cyclones in recent decades, Category 3 and higher — such as Katrina.
The 1990s were the warmest decade on record. The year 1998 set the all-time mark. This decade is on its way to setting a new standard, with a succession of scorchers. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a global effort involving hundreds of climate scientists and the governments of 100 nations, projected in 2001 that, depending on the rate of greenhouse gas emissions and general climate sensitivities, the global average temperature would rise 2.5 to 10.4 degrees Fahrenheit between 1990 and 2100. Sea levels could rise just a few inches, or nearly three feet.
All of the above is part of the emerging, solidifying scientific consensus on global warming — a consensus that raises the urgent political and economic issue of climate change. This isn’t a theory anymore. This is happening now. Business as usual, many scientists say, could lead to a wildly destabilized climate for the first time since the dawn of human civilization.
But when you step into the realm of the skeptics, you find yourself on a parallel Earth.
It is a planet where global warming isn’t happening — or, if it is happening, isn’t happening because of human beings. Or, if it is happening because of human beings, isn’t going to be a big problem. And, even if it is a big problem, we can’t realistically do anything about it other than adapt.
Certainly there’s no consensus on global warming, they say. There is only abundant uncertainty. The IPCC process is a sham, a mechanism for turning vague scientific statements into headline-grabbing alarmism. Drastic actions such as mandated cuts in carbon emissions would be imprudent. Alternative sources of energy are fine, they say, but let’s not be naive. We are an energy-intensive civilization. To obtain the kind of energy we need, we must burn fossil fuels. We must emit carbon. That’s the real world.
Since the late 1980s, when oil, gas, coal, auto and chemical companies formed the Global Climate Coalition, industries have poured millions of dollars into a campaign to discredit the emerging global warming consensus. The coalition disbanded a few years ago (some members recast themselves as “green”), but the skeptic community remains rambunctious. Many skeptics work in think tanks, such as the George C. Marshall Institute or the National Center for Policy Analysis. They have the ear of powerful leaders in the White House and on Capitol Hill. The skeptics helped scuttle any possibility that the United States would ratify the Kyoto treaty that would have committed the nation to cuts in greenhouse gas emissions (conservatives object to the treaty for, among other things, not requiring reductions by developing nations such as China and India).
In the world of the skeptics you’ll come across Richard Lindzen, an MIT climate scientist who has steadfastly maintained for years that clouds and water vapor will counteract the greenhouse emissions of human beings. You’ll find S. Fred Singer, author of Hot Talk, Cold Science, who points to the positive side of the melting Arctic: “We spent 500 years looking for a Northwest Passage, and now we’ve got one.” You’ll quickly run across Pat Michaels, the University of Virginia climatologist and author of Meltdown: The Predictable Distortion of Global Warming by Scientists, Politicians and the Media . You might dip into TCSDaily.com, the online clearinghouse for anti-global-warming punditry. You’ll meet the Cooler Heads Coalition and the Greening Earth Society.
The skeptics point to the global temperature graph for the past century. Notice how, after rising steadily in the early 20th century, in 1940 the temperature suddenly levels off. No — it goes down! For the next 35 years! If the planet is getting steadily warmer due to Industrial Age greenhouse gases, why did it get cooler when industries began belching out carbon dioxide at full tilt at the start of World War II?
Now look at the ice in Antarctica: Getting thicker in places!
Sea level rise? It’s actually dropping around certain islands in the Pacific and Indian oceans.
There are all these . . . anomalies.
The skeptics scoff at climate models. They’re just computer programs. They have to interpret innumerable feedback loops, all the convective forces, the evaporation, the winds, the ocean currents, the changing albedo (reflectivity) of Earth’s surface, on and on and on.
Bill Gray has a favorite diagram, taken from a 1985 climate model, showing little nodules in the center with such labels as “thermal inertia” and “net energy balance” and “latent heat flux” and “subsurface heat storage” and “absorbed heat radiation” and so on, and they are emitting arrows that curve and loop in all directions, bumping into yet more jargon, like “soil moisture” and “surface roughness” and “vertical wind” and “meltwater” and “volcanoes.”
“It’s a big can of worms!” Gray says. It’s his favorite line.
The models can’t even predict the weather in two weeks, much less 100 years, he says.
“They sit in this ivory tower, playing around, and they don’t tell us if this is going to be a hot summer coming up. Why not? Because the models are no damn good!”
Gray says the recent rash of strong hurricanes is just part of a cycle. This is part of the broader skeptical message: Climate change is normal and natural. There was a Medieval Warm Period, for example, long before Exxon Mobil existed.
Sterling Burnett, a skeptic who is a senior fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis in Dallas, says that even if he’s wrong about global warming, mandating cuts in carbon emissions would mean economic disaster for poor countries, and cost jobs in America: “I don’t know any politician anywhere who is going to run on a platform of saying, ‘I’m
going to put you out of work.'”
The skeptics don’t have to win the argument, they just have to stay in the game, keep things stirred up and make sure the politicians don’t pass any laws that have dangerous climate change as a premise. They’re winning that battle. The Senate had hearings on climate change this spring but has put off action for now. The Bush administration is hoping for some kind of technological solution and won’t commit itself to cuts in emissions.
The skeptics have a final trump in the argument: Climate change is actually good. Growing seasons will be longer. Plants like carbon dioxide. Trees devour it. This demonized molecule, CO2, isn’t some kind of toxin or contaminant or pollutant — it’s fertilizer.
The Free Market Solution: Zoos
.
AL GORE IS ABOUT TO COME ON THE BIG SCREEN. Fred Smith is eagerly awaiting the moment. We’re at a media
preview of “An Inconvenient Truth,” the documentary on Gore and global warming (it debuts this week in Washington). Smith is not exactly a Gore groupie. He is the head of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a factory for global warming skepticism.
CEI has 28 people on staff, “half a platoon,” Smith likes to say. They’re in the persuasion business, fighting for the free market. They lobby against government regulations of all kinds. Smith writes articles with titles such as “Eco-Socialism: Threat to Liberty Around the World.” These promoters of capitalism don’t really operate a commercial enterprise; like any think tank, CEI relies on donations from individuals, foundations and corporations. The most generous sponsors of last year’s annual dinner at the Capital Hilton were the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, Exxon Mobil, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, and Pfizer. Other contributors included General Motors, the American Petroleum Institute, the American Plastics Council, the Chlorine Chemistry Council and Arch Coal.
Smith is short, stocky, bearded. He talks extremely fast and sprinkles his remarks with free market jargon, climate change lingo, historical references and various mysterious words that seem to come from a secret conservatives-only code book.
As we wait for the movie to start, I ask him how he would define his political beliefs. “Classical liberal,” he says. He explains that civilization is a means for allowing individuals to liberate their energies and their genius — an emergence from primitive, tribal, collectivist social arrangements. When humans switch from collectivism to private property, he says, “you have greater freedom of ideas.” This prompts the thought that the federal government owns way too much land in the West. Much of it should be privatized, he says.
Including national parks? I ask.
“Probably wouldn’t touch it for political reasons,” he says.
The movie begins: Images of a river. Lush foliage. Gore’s voice, almost sultry, rhapsodizes about nature. Then we see him take a stage in an auditorium. He is in a suit and tie and looks very much like a candidate for political office…..
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