Satellite Animation Shows February Return of the Pineapple Express to California

As originally predicted in this WUWT story from Monday, the pineapple express is here according to NASA:

pineapple-express-feb4-2015
An animation of satellite imagery from NOAA’s GOES-West satellite from Feb. 1 to Feb. 4, 2015 captured the movement of a stream of clouds associated with moisture called “The Pineapple Express.” Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project, Dennis Chesters

The “Pineapple Express” has set up again and is bringing wet weather to the U.S. Pacific Northwest. An animation of satellite imagery from NOAA’s GOES-West satellite from Feb. 1 to Feb. 4, 2015 captured the movement of a stream of clouds associated with moisture that is expected to bring rain and snow to the region over the next several days.

The ”Pineapple Express” occurs when warm air and lots of moisture are transported from the Central Pacific, near Hawaii, to the Eastern Pacific Ocean.

A wide-field movie by NOAA’s GOES-West satellite shows the Pineapple Express’ stream of clouds and moisture moving into the Pacific Northwest. The video was created by NASA/NOAA’s GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

“Good news for Northern California and the Pacific Northwest,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. “Beginning Wednesday, a series of storms pumped up by a moisture-laden ‘Pineapple Express’ system surging out of the warm tropical Pacific will deliver some small relief to rain and snow starved California. Though not a drought buster, we Californians are hoping this might be a preview of coming attractions for February and March. We are in the fourth quarter of our winter rain season and need a ‘hail mary’ to beat this drought down,” Patzert said.

On Feb.4 NOAA’s National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (NPC) in College Park, Maryland issued a short range forecast discussion about the Pineapple Express. NPC noted: A weather system that’s tapping into abundant moisture in the Pacific will bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the Pacific Northwest beginning Wednesday. The rain will spread into northern California on Thursday and is expected to continue through the weekend. Some areas could see in excess of 10 inches of rain through early Saturday.

The Pineapple Express is expected to affect areas from northwest California into coastal Oregon and Washington State. NPC noted that the “Express” is expected to produce mostly light to moderate rainfall totals for the coastal Pacific Northwest on Feb. 4, with much heavier totals expected the following two days.

GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth’s surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric “triggers” for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes.

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mark
February 4, 2015 2:32 pm

How would that moisture eventually end up affecting the east coast?

hunter
Reply to  mark
February 4, 2015 9:44 pm

It will swoop down SE, across the Gulf Coast and up the East coast, or it will travel due east across the Great Plains to the East coast.

cg
February 4, 2015 3:04 pm

I hope God gives you all the rain you need and some to spare for your ground water tables. I’ll say a few Hail Mary’s tonight on my Rosary for you Californians.

Paul Mackey
Reply to  cg
February 5, 2015 4:46 am

Suppose hail would do just as well……

Reply to  Paul Mackey
February 5, 2015 11:53 pm

It is the snow that is needed the most. I live in Northern California. A steady moderate rain started around 2 hours ago, and this morning there was a good downpour. Just north of me is the Trinity Alps. I was in town yesterday to where there is a good view of the peaks. The snow levels are still slim. It has remained to the warm side this winter. The last 3 winters were around 25 F colder than this current winter.

C.K.Moore
February 4, 2015 3:07 pm

Good old erratic, changeable California rainfall–wait long enough and eventually it shows up. Now, if we can manage to store some and not flush it all down the river to keep Delta smelt enthusiasts happy, we might have enough water for awhile–until the unpredictable cycle repeats itself..

george e. smith
Reply to  C.K.Moore
February 4, 2015 4:11 pm

Well there aren’t any delta smelt enthusiasts. But there are plenty who don’t like to see our northern California water which is adequate for us, being sold for a mere pittance to send south to water golf courses in the deserts of SoCal.
It’s bad enough that goof courses are the second most wasteful use of valuable real estate, but then to waste water on anything except 20 feet around the hole, is a travesty.
g

Reply to  george e. smith
February 4, 2015 4:37 pm

It’s a travesty in the U.S. A few years ago I was on the Isle of Man, at a hotel next to what I was told was a world-famous golf course [St. Andrews, I think they said it was].
That golf course was a field of weeds and grass. Mown, yes. But half brown. It looked like a semi-untended kids’ playground, or a soccer field in winter here. Only the greens were well watered and green. They looked like the greens here.
I don’t see any reason why a golf course needs to be immaculate and well watered between holes, on the fairways. Maybe some golfers could explain it for me. But as george says, it takes a huge amount of water.
So there’s a place they could start. Everyone would have the same handicap, right?

maccassar
Reply to  george e. smith
February 4, 2015 5:37 pm

I played the Old Course at St Andrews in 2003 and it was the most enjoyable round of golf of my life. It is the birthplace of golf and was founded in the 1500s. Don’t let the greens superintendent hear you call the growth there weeds. :). Many of the courses in Scotland are known as links ( come to be thought of as open without trees and bordering the sea) courses and have similar conditions to St. Andrews. Very little watering needed. Bobbie Jones played St. Andrews and hated it for his first few trips over there, but learned to love it due to its need for strategic excellence. To say it is a quirky course, is a vast understatement. No course in America looks like it, even though some have tried to replicate it. People come from all over the world to play it. We entered in a lottery the day before and were lucky to get on and teed off at 6:30 am. Others showed up at 3 am to get in line in case an opening developed.
American golf courses and expectations of conditions are vastly different from the Scottish courses. Golfers in the US certainly can enjoy themselves without the watering from tee to green, but over the last 70 years the design, construction and types of grass etc have come to depend on extensive watering. The kinds of grass and watering requirements vary significantly by region. The northern grasses look and play different than those in the South. In the end, it is a matter of priority and someone is going to have to decide in California what is more important. Personally, I believe most courses water way beyond what is needed for an enjoyable round.

Reply to  george e. smith
February 4, 2015 5:50 pm

My family was from a small rural county in Northern California but I ended up in the Los Angeles area. My father said we could have all the water we wanted, subject to how much we could fit into our Volkswagen. There was a statewide vote on big project to take Northern California water to the south, and 96% of the voters in the county were against it.

C.K.Moore
Reply to  george e. smith
February 4, 2015 6:20 pm

You’re right about that George.

Streetcred
Reply to  george e. smith
February 4, 2015 7:58 pm

I’m a keen low handicap golfer, George … at my club (a prestigious one), we collect our own stormwater from around the courses and pump to large strategically located storage dams. Our irrigation water use is supplemented with recycled water from the city sewerage plant. Our grounds are in pretty good condition year round other than in the drought times.
How much water exactly is diverted to the desert courses in Arizona ? It can’t be that much in the scheme of things.
db … for as many that ‘enjoy’ the arid conditions of the ‘Home of Golf’ at St Andrews there are that many that despise it … though there are few, if any, that despise its history. Those hard dry surfaces eventually play havoc with a golfer’s body causing inflammation of the joints and muscle damage akin to ‘tennis elbow’.

Richard M
Reply to  george e. smith
February 4, 2015 8:05 pm

Lot’s of changes in this area in the last decade. Many golf courses in arid climates are cutting back their water usage and letting much of the course revert back to native conditions. I’ve seen estimates of a 70% reduction in water usage.

redc1c4
Reply to  george e. smith
February 5, 2015 12:55 am

golf courses are a waste of a perfectly good shooting range…
we should convert them all!

Reply to  george e. smith
February 5, 2015 6:30 am

The St. Andrew’s on the IoM is (obviously) not the same St. Andrew’s in Scotland considered to be the birth place of golf. Personally, my fortnight at the IoM TT precluded wasting any time looking for or at a golf course. The only course I was interested in was the TT course.
Motorcycle road racing – as a matter of fact, it IS rocket science.

george e. smith
Reply to  george e. smith
February 5, 2015 10:38 am

And for streetcred and other goofers; yes I am aware that on most (Cal) courses they do use recycled or grey water. BUT !! that is still water that could be used to water crops.
Then of course there is the silliness of adding chlorine and fluorine, and maybe cough syrup or other medicines to water, so that the 0.001 % of the water that we drink will be good for the little kiddies and their teeth; could add liquid foods as well for their nutrition.
Of course in Silicon valley, we then have to spend billions of dollars each year to remove all that government crud from the water so that it can be used in processes that require water to be H2O and NOTHING else. Typically has to have a resistivity of 18 megOhms or more. I’m sure that Ohm metres or somesuch.
g

Auto
Reply to  george e. smith
February 5, 2015 12:20 pm

“Golf – a good walk spoiled.” Mark Twain – another man at home on the roaring waters. If you are seeking amusement, do read his ‘Life on the Mississippi’.
Maybe try – http://www.gutenberg.org/files/245/245-h/245-h.htm
Auto

DD More
February 4, 2015 3:16 pm

“Good news for Northern California and the Pacific Northwest,” said Bill Patzert, climatologist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. “Beginning Wednesday, a series of storms pumped up by a moisture-laden ‘Pineapple Express’ system surging out of the warm tropical Pacific will deliver some small relief to rain and snow starved California.
Said by a man not having to deal with 10″ of rain over a period of days.

KS
February 4, 2015 3:18 pm

According to Howard Scheckter at MammothWeather.com this is not a Pineapple Express event.
”Tuesday AM Update:
The town is buzzing with weather rumors so I’ll give you all the straight scoop! First of all this not a Pineapple Connection or Pineapple Express. Those are specific patterns that combine specific anomalies across the northern pacific. You may very well read or hear about this being a pineapple express. However that term does not apply here. However, this is an “AR” event, or formally an atmospheric river event. Here is the difference, all pineapple expresses are AR events, however, not all AR events are Pineapple Expresses.
I can go into and explain the pattern of a Pineapple Express, but I will save that for another time.”
So what defines a Pineapple Express?

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  KS
February 4, 2015 5:07 pm

I was thinking the same. There is a nice low but the rest looks a bit disorganized.

John F. Hultquist
Reply to  John F. Hultquist
February 4, 2015 5:14 pm
Johanus
Reply to  KS
February 5, 2015 7:14 am

UPDATE from Scheckter at mammothweather.com

Additionally, I am “Out Voted” on the term Pineapple Express. Although “I do not agree” that this particular event is the colloquially known pattern of the Pineapple Express, in other words this particular version of an AR. Two noted and respectable Meteorologists disagree…..So I yield……;-)

Impossible to validate, because Scheckter never specified why it shouldn’t be called a “Pineapple Express”
I think he might have been quibbling about P.E.’s origin being from a Madden-Juiian Oscillation in the far west Pacific. This one looks like it was spawned in the mid-Pacific. But otherwise it is a slowly moving eastward deep convection AR, coming off an equatorial wave, which is also true for P.E.s. (and can be easily verified from the morphed microwave/mean-GFS-wind animations)
I think the reason these flows stand out better in MIMICS than GOES IR/WV is
1) passive microwave more sensitive to phase changes in water than IR (wnich tends to saturate at 6-microns)
2) the blended GFS winds are averaged over more of the troposphere, thus capturing/filtering the “deep convection” aspect of these equatorial waves.

beng1
Reply to  KS
February 5, 2015 8:28 am

So what defines a Pineapple Express?

A fast freight-train carrying Del Monte canned pineapple-slices.

David S
February 4, 2015 3:19 pm

Wish we could trade you some of our Michigan snow in exchange for some California sunshine.

jmichna
Reply to  David S
February 4, 2015 6:42 pm
adrian smits
February 4, 2015 3:41 pm

Will this affect the watershed for Lake Mead?

February 4, 2015 4:00 pm

Expect it to be hyped like it was something which never happened before humans mucked things up.

emsnews
February 4, 2015 4:33 pm

Everything is amazing all the time with global warmists. There is no past and the future is roasting hot no matter how cold today is.

Windsong
February 4, 2015 4:35 pm

Washington and Oregon ski resorts not as excited about this as Mr. Patzert is. Snow levels will be as high as 7,000 feet. Much of the remaining paltry amounts of low elevation snow in the PNW will melt and add to the runoff.

Dawtgtomis
February 4, 2015 4:36 pm

Here’s a bet that NOAA’s drought map doesn’t change much.

Aussiebear
Reply to  Dawtgtomis
February 4, 2015 5:45 pm

To paraphrase…The children just won’t know what rain is…

February 4, 2015 4:49 pm

Reblogged this on Sierra Foothill Commentary and commented:
We need the water, bring it on!

pyromancer76
February 4, 2015 5:03 pm

We should all be working on an abundance of water. Enough of waiting for drought, which will always come to California, sometimes centuries at a time, and waiting for drought to end. Technology has now brought us affordable desalinization and the west coast is awash with water. Everyone needs to think abundance, not scarcity. Stop high speed rail; go desalinization plants.

Alan Robertson
February 4, 2015 5:12 pm

Someone remarked to a dairy farmer friend that the drought we were in looked endless and Ernie the farmer said, “It’ll rain again. It always does.”
It’s up to the people to take the steps necessary to deliver adequate water for everyone, when it is needed. While the needs of Californians have been subverted several times in recent past by environmental activists, the majority allowed and often approved the actions which brought their suffering. Have Southern Californians learned their lessons, yet?

clipe
February 4, 2015 5:27 pm

Give it a week and this thing will be sucking moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and dumping snow on Toronto.
Or not. 😉

clipe
Reply to  clipe
February 4, 2015 6:11 pm
ren
Reply to  clipe
February 4, 2015 11:18 pm

It will be a record snowfall in the Northeast.
http://www.meteoexploration.com/maproom/figures/wind500AK060.png

Johanus
February 4, 2015 5:28 pm

This Hawaiian AR (“atmospheric river”) seems to be shifting northward, which you can see in this Morphed Integreated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMICS):
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global/main.html
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/epac/anim/latest72hrs.gif
It’s a little harder to see this northward shift in the IR water-vapor (6-micron) loop, which is the cyclonic flow, apparently transporting most of the precipitable moisture. (Click on “NCEP Fronts” button to see the cold and warm fronts at the northern boundary of the AR)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-wv.html
Accordingly, HPC has issued new precipitation forecasts, reducing the expected 5-7 day totals to a couple of inches or less:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif

H.R.
Reply to  Johanus
February 4, 2015 6:06 pm

Oooooo, nice! Thanks, Johanus.

joelobryan
February 4, 2015 6:49 pm

oddds are this pattern, once established, will keep repeating itself every few weeks for the next two months.
Bring it.

dp
February 4, 2015 7:50 pm

In Washington State the Pineapple Express has always involved the jet stream until the new and scary sounding atmospheric river moniker was hijacked. Last I looked the current location of the jet stream is ripping through California.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-108.78,20.47,482

February 4, 2015 9:01 pm

Thanks. Good article.
Good news for California, this pineapple water conveyor.

February 4, 2015 9:31 pm

Less than two weeks into winter and we’re already in the “4th quarter” of our winter rain season where only a Hail Mary can save us?

Mark T
Reply to  Bob Johnston
February 4, 2015 11:30 pm

6 weeks, dude, and the winter rain season begins before winter.
Mark

patrick healy
February 5, 2015 2:08 am

In this part of the northern hemisphere which I have inhabited these three score and ten, we have four seasons. Spring (Feb,Mar, and April) Summer (May, June and July) Autumn (Aug, Sept and Oct) Winter (Nov, Dec and Jan)
This is according to the calender. Quite often when I am playing the best golf course in the world (my home club Carnoustie) we can get all four seasons during a round on our verdant well watered links
Obviously California is different – so what else is new?
Good luck with your much needed rain BTW.

John in Oz
February 5, 2015 12:29 pm

Once the CAGW alarmists get their way and are able to control the weather, will there be more or fewer Pineapple Expresses?
/sarc

philincalifornia
Reply to  John in Oz
February 5, 2015 5:50 pm

Yes

clipe
February 5, 2015 8:52 pm


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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
000
FXUS61 KBUF 060425
AFDBUF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1125 PM EST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT SUPPLYING THE
REGION WITH A COLD WIND THROUGH THE NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS EVENING TO
AREAS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THOUGH NOT
EXTREME...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF SNOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 1100 PM...RADAR SHOWS A SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED LAKE EFFECT
BAND OFF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY NEAR FULTON.
THIS IS CAPTURED BY THE ARW/NMM MESOSCALE GUIDANCE IN THE QPF
FIELD...WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING THE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY BUT NOT
THE QPF. THIS SUPPORTS RADAR TRENDS WHICH LIFTS THE AREA NORTH AND
LIMITS THE INLAND EXTENT AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE
LAKE. THE AREA SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
DUE TO INCREASED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. BEFORE THIS EXPECT A BRIEF
BURST OF SNOW TO PRODUCE A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW NEAR THE
LAKESHORE IN OSWEGO COUNTY.
OUTSIDE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS TONIGHT IT SHOULD BE DRY AND VERY
COLD TONIGHT. THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 850 HPA WILL MODERATE
SOME...FROM -22C TO AROUND -14 TO -18C BY TOMORROW MORNING A
FRIGID NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP OVER THIS DEEP SNOWPACK. TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALREADY DROPPED WELL BELOW ZERO (-20F AT WATERTOWN) EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP A BIT MORE LATE
THIS EVENING...BUT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE
LATE EVENING...WITH SLIGHTLY RISING TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE. WIND CHILLS...HOWEVER...WILL BE IN THE
15 TO 25 BELOW RANGE WITH THE INCREASE IN WINDS OFFSETTING THE
RISE IN TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION.
FRIDAY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM JAMES BAY TO
CENTRAL QUEBEC. SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE WE WILL HAVE MODEST ISENTROPIC
LIFT ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT TOWARDS THE STATE
LINE. THIS LIFT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO AND CANADA. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT
SYNOPTIC SNOWS...A WESTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE A
LIGHT BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. A FAIR AMOUNT
OF WIND SHEAR SHOULD PROHIBIT THIS SNOW BAND FROM ORGANIZING INTO A
STRONGER BAND OF SNOW...BUT STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW FROM THIS FEATURE. GREATEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AND ALONG THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE TUG HILL.
HERE AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH LOW-END LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS.
ADDITIONALLY TOMORROW AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TO 40 MPH AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL REACH INTO THE TEENS
WITH LOWER 20S ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD AND OVERALL SNOWY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO WILL WIND DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
NEXT SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. WIDESPREAD GENERAL SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH PERHAPS A HEAVIER PERIOD OF SNOWFALL SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY STRONG JET IN PLACE ACROSS THE COUNTRY. MODELS CONSENSUS
KEEPS THE STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH THE BEST ISENTROPIC / OVERRUNNING ASCENT ON THE POLEWARD
SIDE OF THE FRONT...RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SETUP WILL
ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEAK SHORTWAVES RIDING ALONG THE JET
WILL ACT TO FOCUS TIMES OF INCREASED SNOWFALL RATES...LIKELY
SATURDAY MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE CLOSER TO FREEZING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER...TAPERING OFF TO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AWAY FROM THE SURFACE FRONT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS INHERENT WITH WHERE THE SURFACE FRONT SETS UP. IF
FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN THE SOUTHERN TIER MAY NOT SEE
MUCH SNOWFALL...BUT FARTHER SOUTH MAY GIVE LESS SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
TIER AS THEY WOULD BE TOO FAR INTO THE COLD AIR. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...THE CONTINUOUS LIGHT SNOW WILL ADD UP OVER
THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. WE COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES
SATURDAY...A COUPLE INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND A COUPLE INCHES SUNDAY.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GFS/EC ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT A STRONGER WAVE THAT COULD BECOME CUTOFF JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS PA. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO PRODUCE MUCH
STRONGER QG FORCING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...COULD PICK UP 4 TO
7 INCHES OR MORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THESE AMOUNTS
LARGELY HINGE ON THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE LOW HOLDING COURSE...AND
WILL LIKELY NEED HEADLINES ONCE FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES. FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE IN THE HWO.
WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN SATURDAY AND MONDAY COULD ADD UP TO A
FOOT OR MORE FOR MANY LOCATIONS...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT
THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER A THREE DAY PERIOD. THE
PROLONGED LIGHT SNOWFALL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY NOT CAUSE MUCH
IMPACT...AS SNOW REMOVAL SHOULD BE ABLE TO KEEP PACE WITH THE
SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...THE PERIOD WHICH BEARS WATCHING REMAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE SYSTEM COME TOGETHER AS MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING...THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE A TOUGH ONE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID WEEK SHOULD BRING A BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE SNOW AS THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE BREAKS DOWN BEHIND THE MONDAY WEATHER SYSTEM. THE
EXCEPTION WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE.
BY LATE WEEK...MODEL CONESUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL. IN FACT...OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE
WELL SUPPORTED BY THEIR ENSEMBLES THAT BY NEXT FRIDAY...A LARGE
AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH WOULD
ALLOW A DEEP TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST. NAEFS STANDARDIZED
ANOMALIES SHOW A TWO STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ALL THE WAY NORTH ACROSS CANADA
AT 192 HOURS OUT! THIS PATTERN OPENS UP THE NORTHEAST CONUS TO
ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS...WHICH THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING. THESE
IMPRESSIVE SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLES ALL POINT TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND. SNOW CHANCES ARE
HARDER TO PIN DOWN AT THIS TIME FRAME...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...WITH
SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS SOUTH AND EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO ARE LIKELY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 04Z...VFR CONDITIONS WERE IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION...WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT
ALL TAF SITES UNTIL A DEVELOPING SW FLOW BRINGS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INTO ART LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A 45KT
LLJ WILL CROSS THE AREA 09Z TO 15Z. THIS WILL BRING EITHER BRING
GUSTY WINDS (BUF/IAG) OR LLWS (JHW/ROC). MOISTURE FROM A SHORTWAVE
WILL ALSO BRING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CIGS
ON FRIDAY. THIS ALSO WILL ENHANCE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHICH SHOULD LARGELY STAY SOUTH OF THE WATERTOWN
TERMINAL. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY EVENING WITH
LOWERING BUT STILL VFR CLOUD DECKS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IFR IN LIKELY SNOW.
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS SE OF
THE LAKES.
&&
.MARINE...
BY LATE TONIGHT AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE...WITH WINDS
REACHING UP TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY ON LAKE ONTARIO.
THIS INCREASE IN WIND WILL AGAIN BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...WITH THE SCA STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TOMORROW.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ001>008-
010>014-019>021-085.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LOZ043-044.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR LOZ042.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
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Page last modified: Jan 15th, 2015 00:11 UTC

Sadly this Torontonian has to go across the lake for an accuratish weather forecast.

ren
Reply to  clipe
February 6, 2015 6:32 am

It will be a lot of snow in Canada and the northern US with this storm.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/comp/goes/nhem/ir2.html

ren
Reply to  clipe
February 6, 2015 6:52 am

Blockade in the zone of the ozone over Canada.
http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/ozone/images/graphs/o3_maps/current.gif

asybot
Reply to  ren
February 7, 2015 2:16 pm

There will be less than forecasted (periods of rain are now showers) and a lot of the moisture is rain as freezing levels are very high (~6000-6500 feet). Temps yesterday 11.5 C, rainfall 5mm ( @1200′ ASL) these are observations past 24 hrs. 200 miles inland from Vancouver BC.

James at 48
February 6, 2015 4:14 pm

This ended up being merely a garden variety cold front with a slight subtropical tap. Not a foot of rain, more like an inch. Another front’s supposed to hit Sunday, which is prog’d to be weaker. Then back to the ridge.

Richard G
Reply to  James at 48
February 7, 2015 11:17 am

So instead of 10″-20″ by Monday, maybe 8″-12″ with most areas 3″-6″?

asybot
Reply to  Richard G
February 7, 2015 2:18 pm

I hope with this trend it does not get worse Cal. needs the water.

Richard G
Reply to  Richard G
February 7, 2015 10:08 pm

As of Sat 2/7 Honeydew, CA reports 11.4″ so far. The NWS 7 day precip map shows quite a few areas in N.W. California above 10″ and one small area in S.W. Oregon at 20″. With 2 days left in their original forecast, I would say their forecast looks like it will pan out.
On a side note, the California reservoirs as a group are showing 60% of historical average for this time of year. A long way to go to bust the drought but I’m curious if by late next week when all this rain settles into the watershed, if it can push it up towards 68%. That would be more than 1.3M AF of additional storage.

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