WUWT contributor Dr. Ryan Maue writes on his Twitter feed:
Can’t ask for better setup for enormous rainfall totals over NorCal & now linto Bay Area in 5+ days
Looking at the model output below, I tend to agree, if the pattern holds. It sets up Northern California for the perfect orographic lifting enhancement in the Sierra Nevada mountain range that will not only provide a bounty of liquid precipitation, but a significant boost to the well below normal California snowpack.
Most or northern California will get some benefit from this “super soaker” storm:
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts show some parts of Northern Calfornia getting as much as 20″, along with many mountain areas getting 5″ or more.
How much will be snow? That’s anyone’s guess at this time, it depends entirely on how much air and moisture is advected into the low pressure system to collide with colder air.
We’ll know more as we get closer to the event.
Graphics courtesy of Dr. Ryan Maue and WeatherBell.com
This is excellent news! [assuming it happens]. Dr. Maue has been pretty darn accurate in the past.
For folks in Kansas, the California snowpack is the critical part. It stores water that flows to the ocean throughout most of the year. Without a good snowpack, drought in summer gets much worse.
Many years ago Southern California tried to take lots of water from NorCal, via what was called the Peripheral Canal. Gov. Wilson [IIRC] pushed it, and it would have been built. But the enviro groups of the day got together with the northern part of the state and circulated an initiative petition to stop it. The initiative passed, even with the help of SoCal voters, so the water was never diverted.
The argument at the time was that the water would just flow out into the ocean. True. But that indicates that there is probably adequate water, at least for people. The problem is all the water taken from farmers to ‘save’ critters like the Snail Darter — a minnow!
Around the same time the enviros got the massive Auburn Dam project canceled before it was complete. A billion dollars was used up [when $1 billion was a lot of money]. Now it’s just some old construction projects. They still crow about destroying that water storage. In the mean time, the state’s population has almost doubled.
That political power gave the ‘green’ groups immense prestige, which they have parlayed into more power, and into an unaccountable income stream. They support politicians, who are then beholden to them. As usual when there is zero oversight, corruption has become rampant [a Greenpeace director was recently caught flying 1st class from his home to where he worked, when there was a commuter train available; their dues-paying members are so credulous that Greenpeace hardly lost any of them].
I believe that human ingenuity will provide for sufficient water. As in any similar situation, the cost of water will rise. That’s the deal. But there will always be water available for people.
Anyway, people in California talk about the rain like folks in other places talk about the weather in general. More is always very welcome. My money is on Anthony and Ryan Maue, and I look forward to this weekend. ☺ ☺ ☺
DB,
You’ve highlighted what is perhaps the greatest modern threat to individual lives and liberty and that is the threat posed by (hidden) agenda driven, unregulated and unaccountable NGOs.Those NGOs are nearly universally controlled by the barest handful of elites, men and women who are too often grasping sociopaths and worse, with no one’s interest in mind, except their own. Those elites have no end of either means or aid, from both willfully mercenary and unwitting accomplices, to speed their acquisitions.This is the way of the world and the reason that mankind can not rid itself of war. It’s an us against them situation.
vigilis salutis
What does the California snowpack have to do with Kansas?
The Wizard of Oz (1939)
Dorothy says “I’ve got a feeling we’re not in Kansas anymore.”
The folks from Kansas are really really nice but prior to the time of the movie they didn’t get out much. So things have to be ‘splained to them.
dbstealey:
With the level of the California reservoirs still low, it really does not matter for our water supplies how much of this falls as snow rather than rain over the Sierras.
When the reservoirs are relatively full, it is better for the long term supply to have more fall as snow and not reaching the reservoirs until the spring snowmelt. There have been winters when rainfall from warm winter storms like the one we are expecting mean that a lot of water has to be dumped. But that is certainly not the situation now.
I think that its even likely that rainfall that flows quickly into the reservoirs will be somewhat better than snow — a lot of which will sublimate before it gets a chance to melt and run into the reservoirs.
dbstealey,
I will join you in hoping that we actually get walloped by a big soaker. Our reservoir’s have room for lots of run off and any snow pack would be good snow pack. However, your description of the water issue as “people vs. fish” is a gross oversimplification that I repeatedly see both on the internet and in the MSM. I present the following from the perspective of an old fashioned “wise use conservationist” who has lived in Southern California, the San Francisco Bay Area, the Central Valley, and who now lives near Sacramento. I am an attorney who has followed both the legal and environmental water issues in Central California for the last 10 years, and I have represented farmers and small water districts, worked with attorneys who represented the big water districts who are fighting to take more water from the Delta, and dealt with the California Department of Water Resources.
IMNSHO, a much better perspective is to recognize that the dispute is between groups of people who want to put the water to alternative uses, and the disputes are as nasty as they are because the allocations are made by political and legal processes rather than by markets. I.e., we’ve got water supplied by government agencies subject to the pressure groups, lobbyists, and lawsuits instead of water being supplied by private parties selling to the highest bidders according to the principles of supply and demand. As always, this results in what economists call misallocation / uneconomic uses of the resource–and all the nasty behavior is as predicted by public choice economics (or any experienced observer of human events).
In other words, surface irrigation water from California’s extensive system of reservoirs is supplied at artificially cheap prices to users who are chosen in part based on riparian property rights and in part by contracts with government agencies, which contracts are subject to alteration–within various limits–by bureaucratic, legislative, and judicial action. Any new dams or other facilities–such as the proposed Delta diversion tunnels or the proposed Sites or Temperance Flat reservoirs–would also be built by the State government, although who would bear how much of the very expensive cost of each is still up in the air.
The particular group of 600 farmers in the San Joaquin valley who lead the constant litigation over protection “for that little fish” are growing subsidized crops with subsidized water that is pumped with expensive electricity (that they don’t pay for) in soil naturally high in toxic salts–including Selenium–irrigation of which creates a drainage problem that their deal with the U.S. government for the construction of the dam and canals to irrigate their land required them to solve to the tune of several hundred million dollars–which they never have. The toxic run off from their land created a huge problem with deformed baby birds, etc. at the Kesterson Wildlife Refuge about 20 years ago that caused that refuge to be drained and closed. They are now trying to get Senator Feinstein to ram through a bill relieving them of that obligation and giving them a higher priority for water than they currently have. As of now, they have the lowest priority water rights. In dry years, they are the first ones to have their allocation cut. It’s been that way for fifty years. Before Lake Oroville and the canals were built, they didn’t have that water supply in any year, but they’ve grown pretty rich as ag welfare queens, and they’d like to secure their position, and get richer if possible. If they secure their rights, they may even turn around and sell some or all of their water rights to users who would put a higher value on the water (think Southern California urban users, who use a fraction of the total amount that Central Valley agriculture uses). Other water districts near Bakersfield have already done that.
The competing water users are: 1) several hundred less wealthy farmers located in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta who draw their irrigation water directly from the Delta; 2) several thousand recreational fisherman and pleasure boaters who bring millions of dollars of economic activity to the economies of the numerous towns in and around the Delta; 3) groups of bird watchers and other nature lovers who flock to the Delta during the winter migration. (Don’t laugh. Incredible numbers of waterfowl winter here, including Sandhill cranes, which are very impressive birds, and significant numbers of folks come down to see them.) If the Delta tunnels are ever built, all these folks will suffer because the diversion of high quality fresh water from the Sacramento River north of the Delta will likely result in a severe deterioration of water quality in the Delta. This will include increased salinity where the local farmers draw their irrigation water and an acceleration of the ongoing decline in the populations of most species of fish in the Delta, including the most popular sport fish.
And then there are certain environmental groups who may or may not just hate the thought that people are making money and doing something productive with the water. While several of them are involved in the lawsuits over water diversions from the Delta, local fishing groups are also involved and very active in trying to limit–not stop–the amount of pumping from the Delta. The ecosystem of the Delta and the rivers that flow into it has been greatly altered from what it was in the 1840’s and will never be that way again. (I don’t think any rational person would even want it that way if it could be made that way costlessly. But man, the fishing must have been great… but I digress.)
While the environmental lawsuits were first filed by several environmental NGO’s and used the status of the Delta Smelt to force reductions in pumping, the point is not just to protect a few thousand “little baitfish.” The point is to stop the tremendous declines in the populations of almost all of the fish in the Delta. (I’m talking 95-99% declines over 25 years for several as revealed by trawl surveys.) While water exports for agriculture are not the only issue, they are clearly a major one. The second set of pumps in the Delta was turned on in the early 1970’s after numerous dams were completed in previous decades. During the 1990’s, water exports were around 4 million acre-feet per year and most of the populations were (relatively) stable, if lower than previously. In 2002, the Schwarzeneggar administration increased the exports to over 6 million acre-feet per year, and fish populations quickly plummeted, which led to the recent spate of lawsuits that resulted in a cut back to a level that is still above 4.2 million acre-feet per year (but which I don’t recall at the moment) and restrictions on pumping at certain times and under certain conditions.
With regard to dams: Unfortunately, we have already put dams in all the good places to put them in California. None of the current dam proposals make economic sense–too much cost, too little extra storage–and all of them will have significant impacts on river habitats. I liver fairly close to the Auburn dam site and have listened to the arguments for and against it for a decade. Even if you don’t consider the earthquake fault in the dam site to make it a non-starter, the current dam won’t provide any additional storage because the water is already spoken for, and the flood control benefits have mostly been addressed by the improvements that are almost done at Folsom Dam downstream.
maybe union pacific will end up needing to break out the rotary snowblowers again.
those are cool to watch.
a good video
http://www.trainvideodepot.com/DVD-Rotaries-Avalanche-on-the-Mountain-DVD-_BA-ROTARYDVD
Amazing video thanks, amazing “technology” I guess these guys must just love putting it to use once in awhile!
they are cool to watch, same production company also did good video of the spreaders.
I am looking forward to rain in the Bay area, but…..I’ll believe it when I see it.
Lived in the Bay Area in the mid 70’s. A three year drought was in progress and EBMUD had us on a 120 gal/day ration. My wife was at home with two small children so I petitioned and received an extra 30 gal/day allotment. Lake Shasta was down to 20% of full capacity and the experts in such things predicted 10 years of normal precipitation was needed to bring it to near 100%. The winter of ’77/’78 was sufficient to bring it to “full”. Methinks this may be another such winter.
Eastern Pacific Clouds:
https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/paw/usus_west_clds_anim_none.html
Is there a way to swing this system about 100 miles south?
Don’t give them any ideas!
Absolutely!
You just adjust LA’s CO2 to 270 ppm.
That should do it.
Let us see forecast for February 9.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reemnh1682.gif
Many major news outlets are reporting this morning that January 2015 was San Francisco’s driest January on record.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/san-francisco-experiences-driest-january-record-28646269
The linked article concludes with this note::
San Francisco’s recorded weather history dates back to the Gold Rush era of the mid-19th century.
150-200 years is a span of time that virtually disappears on any geological time scale.
Meanwhile, out in the California desert, we’ve had a little rain this winter, and some hardy grasses have begun sprouting in the sparkly sand where the golf courses haven’t been developed, yet. The number of golf courses in the Coachella Valley is given variously as between 100-150, and they are mostly green.
Coachella is an orthographic flub, and not just because WordPress sez so.
Early maps show the area as “Conchilla,” the Spanish word for “seashell.” Since the area was once a part of a vast inland sea, tiny fossilized mollusk shells can be found in just about every remote area. Local lore explains the change in the name from Conchilla to Coachella as a mistake made by the map-makers contracted to transcribe the data supplied by the Southern Pacific Railroad’s survey party. Rather than redraw the expensive maps, the railroad chose to instead begin calling the area by the misspelled name “Coachella” rather than its traditional name “Conchilla.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coachella_Valley
Latest guidance it, it will fizzle around 38 N and be a very weak storm from the Bay Area south. While every bit helps, we had only 2/100ths at my (orographically favored) location for all of January. We are so far behind the 8 ball now, it would take 10 like this to give even a sliver of hope. Thing of it is, El Nino is just about gone and PDO is obviously still negative. Many factors are against breaking the drought.
Problem is with the Pineapple Express is that the moisture tends to be warm, melts snow, runs off quickly.
1962/63 was a pretty dry year in California, too. While SF had no measurable rain in January, other California cities did. Southern California had rain in January.
There is on old bush saying in Aussie land.
“At the end of every drought, there is a good rain”.
Hope the forecast is more accurate than the East Coast blizzard one.
Blizzard forecast was accurate for Boston, but they got the far western edge of it wrong for NYC. Had the storm been about 25 miles farther to the west, the NYC forecast would have been correct. That was a difficult storm to forecast and the forecasts were constantly moving around.
While temperatures will briefly rebound to near 40 F on Wednesday, the combination of an Alberta Clipper storm moving in from the west and a system swinging up from the south could make for a close call with accumulating snow on Wednesday night into Thursday.
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_02022015_hd29.jpg
Someone over at Bishop Hill posted a link to meteoexploration.com
http://www.meteoexploration.com/maproom/gfsmaps.php?lang=en&mvar=sumprecip&tstp=144®ion=AK#map
Horrors….. It’s going to rain hard, after a period of drought.
Oh – The Humanity…..
/sarc
Thanks for the ‘meteo’ link, clipe!
This is looking like it may be a one-and-done event. The ridge is prog’d to return starting Sunday. A figurative drop in the bucket (especially considering we are behind the 8 ball for the 4th year in a row).
Earlier in this post I provided a link to the GOES-WEST water-vapor loop for the north-east Pacific, which renders this current Pineapple Express at a synoptic scale.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/02/02/super-soaker-pineapple-express-organizing-for-heavy-rain-in-california-this-weekend-as-much-as-20-inches-in-some-areas/#comment-1850359
Again, the GOES WV loop of is “real”, i.e. not modeled, in the sense that it is rendering reading 6-micron IR readings where they manage to escape into space from the mid-troposphere.
I think it’s much better to view these phenomena at a planetary scale, where it then can be seen that these are really planetary waves, spawned from the equatorial monsoon trough. But the caveat here is that these images are created using a technique called “blended advection” which blends passive microwave emissions from water vapor with “blended” wind data, derived from modeled winds (GFS, weighted avg of 1000mb, 850mb and 700mb). So the resulting imagery is almost but not quite “real” (as you can tell from the occasional glitches) but provides a very informative view of water vapor advection with respect to the general circulation of the Earth’s atmosphere, especially around equator and the ICTZ.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global/anim/20150131T000000anim72.gif
The current ‘Pineapple Express’ shows up in this image in the Pacific area, but is less intense in terms of preciptable water vapor concentration compared to similar flows now occurring in the southern hemisphere.
[Recall that this same advective blending technique is also being used to analyze columns of CO2 detected by the OCO2 satellite:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/12/20/agu14-nasas-orbiting-carbon-observatory-shows-surprising-co2-emissions-in-southern-hemisphere/#comment-1818214%5D
Here’s the previous Pineapple Express which occurred this last December 2014:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global/anim/20141210T000000anim72.gif
A more powerful P.E. hit California in December 2010
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global/anim/2010/20101217T000000anim72.gif
You can access the archive of these MIMIC-tpw images, produced by CIMSS at Univ of Wisconsin:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global/anim/?M=D (archive)
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/global/main.html (home page)
Johanus,
Very interesting and enlightening!
Thanks for the animations and the links,
Mac
I agree with Mac, those are very interesting animations. Thanks.
I trust Ryan Maue is right about rain this weekend. Normally I would be skeptical, but not so much this time — and I have a very good reason.
I am constructing a bedroom addition on my house. The concrete foundation is complete, and all the framing is done. The roof was supposed to be installed this week, but the guy got sick and he won’t be back to work until next week. All the framing is exposed.
So on the principle of the Gore effect, or on the principle of ‘if I get my car washed it will rain’, I fully expect the exposed wood framing will get drenched. And yes, the bread does usually fall on the floor peanut butter side down.
This forecast is very hopeful; it probably won’t happen. El Nino has failed to occur for the past 11 months ENSO watch period. NOAA/CPC has been jiggering the chances around week after week and have never seen the atmosphere fully cooperate with the ocean. What little snow fell in the mid California Sierra back in December has largely been melting or sublimating away. I cross over the Carson Pass highway about once a week and I keep and eyeball on the snowpack’s behavior and its now pretty much gone. Another storm this week would be nice but the satellite view is not very encouraging. Perhaps Southern Oregon will get wet but further South looks less likely.
This is too bad as I run a small grape vine farm in the Lodi area of the central valley. We’re planted to Cabernet Savignon. We rely on well water. Good thing I upgraded our pumping capacity a year ago. This drought could last another 3 or 4 years, especially without an El Nino in the near future. The proletariat of the state will be screaming for heads on pikes by then but mother nature could give a rats behind about what they think. Perhaps the idea of desalinization will finally be considered by the enviros as a reasonable solution Or not.
A Hard Rain – song written by Bob Dylan but worth a listen if you have never heard this version by Joan Baez:
Let it rain…
oops, sorry, that link doesn’t seem to work maybe this one will. It’s worth a listen:
http://grooveshark.com/#!/search?q=hard+rain+joan+baez
Wow the 7 day qpf from the HPC has gone nuts along with 12 to 15″ of precip from San Francisco to Seattle. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a massive widespread AR event. That’s a distance of over 800 miles. Let’s see if it verifies or even comes close.
Now the “7-day totals” forecast is up to 17.8 inches for parts of Washington!
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif
It will be big snowstorm further east.
February 5, California will get the whole lot of rain, the Low-pressure area will be at the coast.
I wonder what will be the convection, where warm air from the Pacific Ocean collides with cold continental?
Thanks, Dr. Maue.
May your forecast become reality.
That last set of storms already filled many of our reservoirs to above average:
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/reservoirs/RES
Hopefully we get some more snow pack sometime soon…
Many? Not to “rain” on your parade, but the reality is that there are a small number of relatively small reservoirs full, way up north. The large ones, in the central area, are pathetic.
I said many are above average and I could have said most. Most of the reservoirs are now above average. Look at my link^^^. They’re nowhere near full, but many are now above average. I think we’re all rooting for more rain. 🙂