…And what we might expect from the GISS, NCDC and UKMO products.
Guest Post by Bob Tisdale
Alarmists from around the globe are awaiting the global temperature product update from GISS, which should be released sometime around the 15th of this month. As a separate listing, see the data page here, GISS provides the annual-average December-to-November data, what is referred to as the “Meteorological Annual Mean”. I thought it would be interesting to see in advance of the GISS release where the RSS and UAH “Meteorological Annual Mean” lower troposphere temperature anomalies came in for 2014. See Figure 1.
Figure 1
As one might expect, due to the additional volatility of the lower troposphere temperature anomaly products, the “Meteorological Annual Mean” values for 2014 are nowhere close to the record highs for the RSS and UAH global temperature products.
WHAT WE MIGHT EXPECT FROM GISS, NCDC AND UKMO PRODUCTS
IF (big if) the December-to-November mean is close to the November-to-October mean, Figure 2, then the “Meteorological Annual Mean” for GISS should be similar to 2010.
Figure 2
The NCDC product for November 2014 will appear a few days later, on the 18th. It should be at record highs, Figure 3, if the December-to-November mean is close to the November-to-October mean.
Figure 3
Last, toward the end of the month, the November 2014 UKMO HADCRUT data will be published, and based on the same big-if scenario, Figure 4, the December-to-November mean will probably be about the same as 2010.
Figure 4
So strap yourself in for some alarmism. I suspect we’ll be hearing about global surface temperatures for the next few months.
Of course, we know that the record high global surface temperatures in 2014 are primarily a response to a prolonged weather event in the North Pacific. If this is news to you, please see the post here. Maybe, after the mainstream media get their fill and something else takes the alarmist stage, there will be a report from some agency that provides an open explanation for the 2014 record highs…maybe not.
If RSS is an ‘outlier’ , then it is probably more accurate. Accuracy is not something that you come across often these days in Climate prediction..
Thanks, Bob.
We shall see, others will not even look at the data; they already know what they want to think.
I do not trust any temperature measurements outside of the satellite data. That we had record Northern Hemisphere snow cover November 2014 tells me all I need to not trust the other data regards how warm it was in the Northern Hemisphere.
I still think 1998. Indeed, the surface records have been adjusted so many times that they are absolutely hopeless.
RSS closely follows the USCRN data trends. I would think that would give it greater credibility.