Climate alarmists are celebrating in the wake of the US / China emissions agreement, that if everyone does what they promised to do, global temperatures will only rise by 3 degrees by the end of the century.
According to the (Australian) ABC;
“PROJECTED GLOBAL WARMING this century will slow but will still be at a severe rate after promises by China, the United States and the European Union to limit greenhouse gas emissions, a scientific study showed on Monday.
The Climate Action Tracker, produced by an independent group of scientists, said temperatures were set to rise by about three degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times by 2100, the lowest since the tracker was set up to monitor promises made by governments in 2009.
The study, issued during United Nations talks on climate change in Lima, said the rate was 0.2 to 0.4°C less than previously projected after pledges by China, the United States and the European Union in recent weeks to rein in emissions.”
http://www.abc.net.au/environment/articles/2014/12/09/4145031.htm
All that pain, all that misery, all that unbelievable financial cost, which, even if alarmists are right, is for the sake of a temperature change so small most people couldn’t even detect it, unless they squint really hard at their household thermometer.
It’s the fire and brimstone warning chart to pay up on dues to the high priests, or else.
Who will be the next Martin Luther? As before, the pointed protest must come from within the learned elite and not the common rabble that pays the price for all of it.
Maybe a list of theses describing the atrocities of science and policies born of them nailed to the Capitol Building door?
This claim appears to based solely on the forcing of CO2 emissions, so it seems naive to use it to construe future temperature trends, even to a lay observer.
Just to show you how stupid the alarmists are. Instead of denying “the pause” they should be crediting their backwardassed policies for it. When it comes to propaganda, it’s amateur hour for alarmists.
If true, in 6 years we could expect a 0.15C rise in average global temps IF the eco-green accept that the current temp is normal, i.e. their prior values for the radiative forcing of CO2 were too high. If they continue to say a natural but negative force has temporarily kept temps down and id ending, then in 5 teard we should expect a rise of perhaps 0.22C.
Very noticeable.
If only they could be held accountable for their claims and projections.
I am kind of amused by the uncertainty range of 1.3°C, it leads to an interesting possibility.
Using their graphic, and uncertainty being what it is, if we do nothing it is possible temperatures will rise by 2.5°C but if we turn world economies upside down could rise to 3.8°C.
I know they want us to think that uncertainties in both scenarios run in tandem, but we are talking about uncertainties and an uncertainty range that is pretty large, so I’ll I’ll take my chances with doing nothing.
Much cheaper to adapt, then to try to prevent in this case.
A way with words.
“That was over faster than a knife fight in a phone box. One minute the US and China are ready to join forces to save the world, the next they split on the precise mechanism for measuring that modest aim.”
More at http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/12/08/UN-Climate-Commitment-in-Tatters-Due-to-Chinese-Secrecy
As a Meteorologist of 30 years, I would like to say that these prognosticators will be long dead by the time their assertions come about. If they are aiming for a legacy, they probably have it because no matter what way they go, they claim victory. Just as with every cold and warm snap the rhetoric heats up…lol
Come off it :
An elementary order-of-magnitude calculation – relying on the Zeroth Law of Thermodynamics – shows that, even when allowing the IPCC calculation of man-mad global warming by 2100 reputedly caused by CO2, it’s so trivial when compared to solar input variability alone, as to be totally irrelevant to ‘climate’: http://cleanenergypundit.blogs…
What a joke. Even if their predictions meant anything, they are counting on countries keeping promises for 85 years. How many promises made by countries 85 years ago are still being kept? Does it even matter?
Sounds to me like the alarmists have realised their predictions were much too high and have now decided that it’s better to claim that the lower temperatures are a result of their actions. It’s rubbish of course but it protects status and funding.
I always find it sort of odd when folks claim the CO2 problem started with something called the industrial period sometime after 1700. (See 2nd comment by Hugh)
Here is a line from an old text: “So Hiram gave Solomon cedar trees and fir trees according to all his desire.”
It seems that Solomon’s desire involved quite a few trees along with much stone. It is reported that ten thousand men worked for months to meet the need for trees and great stones. Next to go –the trees of southern Europe, then northern and western Europe, then peatlands. In North America, wood was required to heat homes and as Boston grew the source of that wood became more distant, requiring a canal to transport it.
Some references claim Solomon’s Temple was constructed about 2500 years before the industrial revolution.
Should the Climate Action Tracker and others use temple-building-time for the base period?
All this alarm, and still the World’s temperature is not rising at all!
Listening to the ABC this morning, I detected a new tack in the language. They have, as we know, long moved on from “global warming” to “climate change”. Well, now they are moving on further to “extreme weather”. Perhaps they’re hoping people forget the old “weather isn’t climate” mantra, and that they only need repeat the new theme often enough. Given that any number of extreme weather events happen in a given country every year, it’s far easier to argue in the face of embarrassing pauses or growing ice sheets. In any event, it will be interesting to see whether this CO2-causes-more-extreme-weather-without-warming test balloon gains traction amongst the warmistas and an increasingly skeptical general public.
Transcript is here: http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2014/s4145650.htm
“If everyone keeps their promises…
No-one does. We’re doomed.
If temperatures don’t rise because CO2 sensitivity is much lower than estimated, or because there are negative feedbacks that counter global-warming gasses, I can guess what the warmists will say. They will still claim it was due to this agreement, even if nobody keeps it. But they will never admit to being wrong about global warming.
Reblogged this on Centinel2012 and commented:
The really sad thing is that there is no man made global warming its a natural process that has been going on for close to 4000 years now. The effect from CO2 is minor and not really an issue as most current scientific paper show. since the rate of increase has gone from 3.0 to about 1.0 in the last 20 years. At a level of 1.0 degrees C per doubling this is no problem