Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Another day, another bizarre claim about global warming – this time a study which claims that global warming is making our children shorter.
According to a study performed by scientists from [Johns] Hopkins University and Bloomberg School of Medicine;
“El Niño is responsible for natural disasters and infectious disease outbreaks worldwide. During the 1997–1998 El Niño, northern Peru endured extreme rainfall and flooding. Since short stature may occur as a result of undernutrition or repeated infections during childhood, both of which are highly prevalent during natural disasters, we sought to determine if the 1997–1998 El Niño had an adverse effect on stature and body composition a decade later. In 2008–2009, we measured height, weight, and bioimpedance in a random sample of 2,095 children born between 1991 and 2001 in Tumbes, Peru.
Results
Height-for-age increased by 0.09 SD/year of birth between 1991 and 1997 (P < 0.001), indicating overall improvements in health over time in the study area; however, this rate fell to 0.04 SD/year of birth during and shortly after El Niño, less than half the rate prior to El Niño (P = 0.046). Height shortfalls were even greater in children residing in households most likely to be flooded after El Niño. Any improvement over time was completely blunted and became negative in children living in households with flood likelihoods of ≥7% (P = 0.001). In the subset of 912 children with bioimpedance measurements, those born after the onset of El Niño had less lean mass (P < 0.001), whereas fat mass was unaffected (P = 0.48).
Conclusions
”Children born during and after 1997–1998 El Niño were on average shorter and had less lean mass for their age and sex than expected had El Niño not occurred. The effects of El Niño on health are long lasting and, given its cyclical nature, may continue to negatively impact future generations.”
The study: http://www.climatechangeresponses.com/content/1/1/7
Of course, if Peru had a modern, rich, industrial economy, perhaps the Peruvian people could afford enough food, so they wouldn’t suffer nutritional shortages when floodwater messed up the household cabbage patch. But this would require evil infusions of large scale commercial investment – an unlikely prospect, given the local Peruvian political climate.
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Why am I several inches taller than my twin brother ?
Are you wearing heels?
Only at weekends.
… when I go dancing.
Diet?
I was rather small at the age of 14 so, wanting to be taller, I binged on extra milk and meat for about 4 years. I ended up at 6′ 1″ while all my brothers are around 5′ 10″. But then I more resemble my mother’s side of the family (German/Irish) while my shorter brothers more resemble my father’s side (Italian). Diet/genetics?
because he is shorter than you….. 🙂
thanks dma lol. ( and also the Heels on weekends etc!) and to a later post by humourme , you didn’t.
An interesting study, but – I suggest – one that may not have captured all the variables. Local diseases: check. But . . .
Parental stature?
Political constraints?
Local migration, perhaps?
I am sure that other effects might be espoused.
Doesn’t make this bad [I’ve not reviewed the full paper] but the abstract does raise queries . . . . . . .
Might this be – “Send more grant money”? Maybe not.
May be not.
Auto.
Actually, the Abstract does not appear to blame global warming. Unless our climate obsessed friends now blame CO2 for El Nino’s. Which also would mean CO2 can travel back in time, since they have occurred for as long as the Pacific ocean has had its present geographic shape. I guess this is a question for Bob Tisdale, but could the case be made that El Nino events have actually weakened the past decade or so?
Hunter,
See the paper’s conclusion HERE. They blame “Some investigators”.
Well of course there is the acknowledgmenent of the CO2 devil……..
The existence of the sentence “Some investigators hypothesize…” in the conclusion section can only be read as an editorial endorsement of those hypotheses, or even of the elevation of those hypotheses to theories.
Given that, the chain of implied causation here is simply amazing. Global warming causes more El Ninos. More El Ninos cause more Peruvian floods. More Peruvian floods cause increased malnutrition and disease. More malnutrition and disease causes Peruvian children to not grow quite as fast.
So, better water storage that could mitigate both floods and droughts is the answer? Let’s not forget about Peruvian children during non-El Nino drought years. Surely they could suffer malnutrition if crops are inhibited by drought, too, no? And what about in a perfect weather year, when an outbreak of some childhood disease bends the curve in a year they didn’t study? Omigod! We need better Peruvian doctors and nurses! We need a bigger Peruvian Child Protective Services budget!
Then the conclusion states “…it is imperative that we continue to explore the extent to which they [those slightly shorter Peruvian children] are affected to design prevention strategies and target aid and relief during future El Niño episodes.” Well, clearly the researchers want more money. But what prevention strategies are they talking about? More international trade in food stuffs? Carbon dioxide emission reductions? Better levees, dams and irrigation systems in Peru?
We need to reduce the funding to the NIH and NSF so that taxpayer money isn’t wasted on this kind of bulls**t science.
This paper doesnt say Global Warming shrunk kids. It says that El Nino did. The statistical tests look pretty reasonable and the causation makes sense. The link to global warming is quite tentative (” Some investigators hypothesize that global warming will translate into more frequent El Niño episodes” in the conclusion) and ends by saying we should do more to combat the effects of bad weather on poor children. It does the sceptic camp no good to brand such anodyne analysis and prescriptions as alarmist.
humourme,
do you know what made El Ninos stronger in the past?
Humourme:
So they are advocating coping rather than ‘preventing’. That’s very sensible. One could as well make the same argument showing cold crop seasons reduce the availability of food with the same effect. Very reasonable. Real science. Who know food affected health??
The only thing I see wrong with the test is the statement that El Nino is a ‘cycle’. The idea that El Ninos will become more frequent is interesting. I wonder if they have some indication that they were less frequent during the Little Ice Age and more frequent during the MWP.
[Wasted effort by a banned sockpuppet. Comment DELETED. -mod]
[Wasted effort by a banned sockpuppet. Comment DELETED. -mod]
There have always been and always will be el Ninos. Why the excitement?
To me, this is the insidious part of the “global warming/climate change” advocacy.
The paper may not say “global warming” or even state “climate change”, but anything that happens in the world of weather gets an implied link to the “climate change” meme. If something is linked to “climate change” then it is linked to “global warming” which is linked to CAGW by C02. Doesn’t matter if it is a subtle linking or out right blatant, the inferred connection is there.
Another part of the insidiousness – a claim that the North Pole will be ice free for the first time in 50 million years goes around the world while the correction stating that it is a very normal occurrence that has happened numerous times in the past gets hidden in the back page of the newspaper.
Since El Nino has been around well before that region was “settled” it is interesting that after the 98 one the growth rate should have dropped. If there is a real relationship rather then just coincidence. Did this one cause more associated misery then usual?
Diet would come to mind first and if crops failed after the event for some time then it is possible that growth is affected of course, but why this time and not at other times also? Did they cut down on hormone levels in meat around that time?
Perhaps the growth rate of Peruvian children accelerates after the age of 10-12 compared to the average growth rate from baby to adulthood. The before El Nino versus after El Nino 98 ages.
Boys in particular have this spurt from 14/15 on. Anything known about that for that region.
Looks like cherry picking results so we can go back to the funding board as there “could” be an AGW related issue here. To be sure we need a test that runs for at least 30 years. Which would mean that my job is secure till retirement, thank you sir/madam.
outheback
“Which would mean that my job is secure till retirement, thank you sir/madam.”
Thank you.
I agree that – potentially – thus could be an outcome.
I am sure science is above money-grubbing of the sort suggested.
Isn’t it?
Auto
How does this study explain the reduction in lean mass while at the same time body fat is not reduced significantly?
It seems to me that you have to be ingesting excess calories in order to maintain body fat given no change in physical activity. Is the El Nino causing a reduction in dietary protein, or does it cause increased laziness?
How does this study explain the reduction in lean mass while at the same time body fat is not reduced significantly?
It seems to me that you have to be ingesting excess calories in order to maintain body fat given no change in physical activity. Is the El Nino causing a reduction in dietary protein, or does it cause increased laziness?
Why does my comment appear twice when I only posted once?
Poverty makes you more likely to suffer from ill health and nutritional effects. Doh!
Same could be said for the cold.
They have not considered the effect of warfare on height. Napoleon famously reduced the average height of French men by 5 centimetres in just over a decade by conscripting every tall strapping young man and killing them in the battles or frozen wastes of Russia.
As we the Hip and Yip know from the 60’s, war is not good for children and other living things.
Yup, and the US is on track for a reduction in “average height” by the next census …. given the fact that that 20+- million new “shorty” illegal immigrants will then be “citizenized”.
Crispin in Waterloo
December 1, 2014 at 4:47 am
“They have not considered the effect of warfare on height. ”
That’s a nice way to describe the swinging action of a Zweihänder sword.
Yet another stupidly useless waste of taxpayer’s money. When will this sçàt stop ?
We have more natural disasters here Oz than almost anywhere in the world. Since moving here I have noticed far more people taller than me than anywhere else I have been, and I’ve been a lot of places. I am 192cm / 6′ 2″.
Obviously natural disasters cause taller people!
Jerome, if you are 192cm tall you are closer to 6’4”. Before I shrank, I was 191cm rounded to 6’3”. Alas, tall people have more to lose as age affects their spine so now I’m back to a measly 189cm. As for people shrinking due to the Little Ice Age, this appears to be borne out by the height of doorframes in Middle Ages homes in UK, which were a real chore for a visitor from Oz like me.
El Nino must have made Peruvian children into dwarfs back in the day. Oh the horror!
jimbo: Your ability to research the internet for adequate data.
but more: filter the threads topic for basic informations required.
Astounding. Thanks for documenting real ground.
Hans
When will it ever end. Height and weight depends on diet, breeding and such. Men from Kentucky couldn’t fight in the Civil War for the Drought in the early 1800s cause diseases and many lost their teeth to things like Scurvy, Discintary and such.
Thus, they lost their teeth which made things even worst for to be in the Civil War, one had to bite off the pre-measured gunpowder packets for their muskets. Thus Kentucky sat out the war.
When the US entered the first World War, some were captured and placed amongst the local population in a propaganda photo. It backfired. Do to inbreeding of white European races in the USA and better Diet, the US soldiers stood at least 12 to 18 inches taller than the local inbred German population.
To blame this on climate change is just another example of poor research, assumptions and of course, conclusions.
Show them to the door.
Paul Pierett
That’s quite a difference, Paul. So compared to our 6-footers, the German men averaged 4’6″ to 5′ tall?
Last 3 generations here in Germany saw big gains in height, so yes, Germans around 1914 probably were pretty short on average.
Germany at that time had a population explosion, and, being densely populated, the Reich was running out of arable land – crops at that time had a much lower yield, and a lot of land was needed for feedstock.
So the Reich set up the Ukraine as a future grain source – ca. 1905 – ; and later, Hitler fantasized of Lebensraum im Osten, planning to colonize the slawic lands to the East with German settlers – undeterred by the fact they were already inhabited by someone else.
In the age before international trade with mega ships, food supply was a serious issue even for an upcoming industrial powerhouse like the Reich in 1914.
But at least the world will smell nicer:
Could global warming make our flowers smell nine times sweeter?
Here is another tall story Or is that short?
Japanese population started to increase in height when they included a western diet.
Here in Britain, we are seeing young boys grow taller and young girls have bigger boobs. You can’t help but notice it…that boys are taller, I mean.
I thought that was due to the hormones in milk….the boobs I mean.
The paper doesn’t specifically blame “global warming”, but it doesn’t need to. Notice the site is called “Climate Change Responses”. “Climate Change”, of course is shorthand for “manmade climate change”.
Those of us who have seen a couple of 6 foot tall 14 year olds consume a large chicken, cooked for the whole family, will consider global warming a blessing.
I have one of those at home too. Just a hair away from being taller than me, to his delight
A couple of 6′ 14 year olds devouring one chicken, wow you are lucky I have ONE 14 year old 5’10” do that!
Look chaps this WUWT post on El Nino was a way for the authors to get quick funding. Just the hint of global warming makes their lives easier. Who can blame them. Here is their conclusion:
I have already shown how El Ninos were stronger in the past with less that 350ppm. So it might do the same again without any help from man.
This finding is DIASTROUS:
for John Hopkins University and for Bloomberg School of Medicine.
Both institutions have now achieved ZERO credibility.
If it makes people shorter, then let’s start polluting away! Because it is not working by any stretch of the imagination.
El Nino, La nina, at this point, “what difference does it make, I am still growing taller then my hair.
Hottest year ‘evah’ BBC.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30225511
The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley,
Is it just a coincidence that the BBC article is about UN climate negotiators meeting in Peru?
Here is the dire effect of global warming since the end of the Little Ice Age.
In good old French fashion they finally didn’t have to “carry” the weight.
How does this compare with the dinosaurs who go bigger when the climate was warmer? I am 5′ 10″ my father was 5′ 6″ my son (who was born in 1995) is 6′ 2″
The only stunted development AGW is responsible for is the minds of the “scientists” who continually peddle this rubbish!
You have just got to wonder who is footing the bills for all these ‘determined outcome’ studies.
They ain’t spendin’ their own money.
…and they don’t have any adult supervision
I swear I saw a report in my paper (Telegraph – I get it for the crossword)that before too long, we will all be sort of brown coloured, the men having longer …. Erm …. Appendages and women having more “perky” ….. Erm …. thingies. I am sure it must have been peer-reviewed, but I fear I cannot give chapter and verse. Could have been Leviticus?
Tanning booths, appliances and cosmetic surgeries… I’d better call my broker and invest.
Reblogged this on gottadobetterthanthis and commented:
–
A good indicator that global warming is simply alarmism is the fact that it is said to be responsible for everything. While the statement here isn’t actually blaming global warming, it does pretend warmth caused during El Nino causes people to be shorter. Perhaps these people need some fossil fuel so they can run air conditioners. More importantly, they need petrol and a strong economy (and protected property rights and general freedoms) in order to be able to overall better their lives. Then they will be equipped to deal with mother nature as they see fit.
In general, global warming is blamed for most everything. http://dailysignal.com/2009/11/17/global-warming-ate-my-homework-100-things-blamed-on-global-warming/
Note, measured global warming is less than our ability to reliably measure temperature. Here is a more updated list with a note indicating how much warming there is on an average annual basis. http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/globalwarming2.html
This article is another example of acedemia looking right past policy and blaming nature for folks struggling in the third world.
oops… academia
and wouldn’t you know, right on schedule for Lima!
UN climate talks begin as global temperatures break records
BBC News-2 minutes ago
NOAA: 2014 is shaping up as hottest year on record
CNN – Nov 30, 2014
Australia has hottest spring on record as temperatures soar
BBC News – 2 hours ago
Australia sweats over extreme hot weather
BBC News – 14 hours ago
CNN and BBC. Factual, trusted and fearless broadcasting as always. Fighting the good fight against global governance and anti-democracy elites attempting to dominate our civilization and subjugate our sovereignty. Gotta love ‘em.
Once again this idea that we should be surprised that the warmest years are at the back end of a warming trend. If I were to save £100 per month for a year then reduced it to 1p per month for each consequent month every month would have a record balance, the rate at which the balance was increasing would have dropped enormously however. One might even say the rate of increase was statistically insignificant 😉
They’re getting the announcements in before December takes the shine off the records.
“Some investigators hypothesize that global warming will translate into more frequent El Niño episodes..”
More frequent El Nino decreases the upper OHC causing longer term cooling. El Nino is a negative feedback (with a large overshoot) to low solar plasma forcing, and cooling from stratospheric volcanic aerosol events.
I’m 5 foot 10. I’m sure my 20 y.o. son (6 foot 3) would agree with this cr4p if stopped laughing long enough. As would his 19 y.o. best friend (6 foot 6). Lols.
Or the meme “Global warming has “obviously” increased average life expectancy in developed countries by ten years from 1950 to 2007″!
Correlation is NOT causation!
Contrast the change in life expectancy with dietary changes since the end of World War II
Change in average life expectancy in major developed countries
Similarly consider Japanese stature since 1950
Errata: Change in average life expectancy in major developed countries
http://www8.cao.go.jp/syokuiku/data/eng_pamph/pdf/pamph3.pdf