Better forecasts for sea ice under climate change?

The changing Arctic
Dr. Hoel, who has just returned, reports the location of hitherto unknown coal deposits on the eastern shores of Advent Bay – deposits of vast extent and superior quality……The oceanographic observations have, however, been even more interesting. Ice conditions were exceptional. In fact, so little ice has never before been noted. The expedition all but established a record, sailing as far north as 81o29′ in ice-free water. This is the farthest north ever reached with modern oceanographic apparatus…..
In connection with Dr. Hoel’s report, it is of interest to note the unusually warm summer in Arctic Norway and the observations of Capt. Martin Ingebrigtsen, who has sailed the eastern Arctic for 54 years past. He says that he first noted warmer conditions in 1918, that since that time it has steadily gotten warmer, and that to-day the Arctic of that region is not recognizable as the same region of 1868 to 1917.
Many old landmarks are so changed as to be unrecognisable. Where formerly great masses of ice were found, there are now often moraines, accumulations of earth and stones. At many points where glaciers formerly extended far into the sea they have entirely disappeared.
The change in temperature, says Captain Ingebrigtsen, has also brought about great change in the flora and fauna of the Arctic. This summer he sought for white fish in Spitsbergen waters. Formerly great shoals of them were found there. This year he saw none, although he visited all the old fishing grounds.
There were few seal in Spitzbergen waters this year, the catch being far under the average. This, however, did not surprise the captain. He pointed out that formerly the waters about Spitzbergen held an even summer temperature of about 3º Celsius; this year recorded temperatures up to 15º, and last winter the ocean did not freeze over even on the north coast of Spitsbergen.
http://www.climate4you.com/ClimateAndHistory%201900-1949.htm#1922: The Changing Arctic; warming in Svalbard

Nothing new under the sun, again.
Back in 1983, this guy actually did some science and physically measured the strain on icebergs:
Polar Ice: Problems with a Potential Natural Resource, Article #606 by Larry Gedney
http://www2.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF6/606.html
“Icebergs taller than a 50-story building and larger than the country of Belgium have been documented (it should be stressed here that we are speaking of fresh water ice derived from continental glaciers–not ice floes which are flat expanses of frozen sea water sometimes the size of small continents).
One might regard such a massive piece of real estate as being almost indestructible (except through melting, of course), but the fact is that they are remarkably fragile, and often unexpectedly shatter into many smaller fragments. The tendency for them to do this has long baffled investigators.
Now, Vernon Squire, an oceanographer with the Scott Polar Research Institute in Cambridge, England, may have discovered the reason.
Squire and his colleagues mounted “strainmeters” on a number of icebergs in the Antarctic and monitored the small distortions resulting from the “surf” around the bergs’ margins. It was found that each iceberg has a unique resonant frequency of vibration, depending on its size and shape. Although it would seem that ordinary ocean waves should have little effect on such a massive body, if the wave frequency matches that of the iceberg (or of one of its harmonics), the expansion and contraction induced could build to the point where the iceberg shatters. A good analogy, says Squire, would be that of a singer’s voice shattering a wine glass.
The process is then repeated with the smaller pieces, each of which has a higher resonant frequency, until the bulk has been reduced to the point that only waves of unattainable frequency could damage it further.”
Vernon Squire continued his research at the University of Otago NZ, does no-one do academic research before they come up with a “new” idea?
“Break-up of Sea Ice by Ocean Waves” Vernon Squire, Pat Lanahorne, U. Otago
“Waves are the principal determinant in the breakup of sea ice, acting both to fracture sheet ice initially into discrete ice floes and to limit the size of ice floes thereby formed. While mathematical models to predict how waves propagate into and through sea ice exist, they do not synthesize all we know about the properties of sea ice. In particular, this project investigates how the incessant action of intense waves in Arctic and Antarctic waters can hasten the eventual demise of sea ice, by gradually weakening it in the manner of the fatigue of an aircraft wing subjected to continuous oscillation in flight. The aim is to estimate the lifetime of sea ice in various scenarios.”