Michigan State professor labels skeptics as "global warming cynics" due to not getting on board with the extreme weather link

From Michigan State University, and the Department of Junior Lewandowskys, where this angry looking guy obviously thinks global warming manifests itself in every weather event, we have the same old ad hominem argument, except published.

Global warming cynics unmoved by extreme weather

“Many people already had their minds made up about global warming and this extreme weather was not going to change that, ” said Michigan State University sociologist Aaron M. McCright.

EAST LANSING, Mich. — What will it take to convince skeptics of global warming that the phenomenon is real? Surely, many scientists believe, enough droughts, floods and heat waves will begin to change minds.

But a new study led by a Michigan State University scholar throws cold water on that theory.

Only 35 percent of U.S. citizens believe global warming was the main cause of the abnormally high temperatures during the winter of 2012, Aaron M. McCright and colleagues report in a paper published online today in the journal Nature Climate Change.

“Many people already had their minds made up about global warming and this extreme weather was not going to change that,” said McCright, associate professor in MSU’s Lyman Briggs College and Department of Sociology.

Winter 2012 was the fourth warmest winter in the United States dating back to at least 1895, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Some 80 percent of U.S. citizens reported winter temperatures in their local area were warmer than usual.

The researchers analyzed March 2012 Gallup Poll data of more than 1,000 people and examined how individuals’ responses related to actual temperatures in their home states. Perceptions of warmer winter temperatures seemed to track with observed temperatures.

“Those results are promising because we do hope that people accurately perceive the reality that’s around them so they can adapt accordingly to the weather,” McCright said.

But when it came to attributing the abnormally warm weather to global warming, respondents largely held fast to their existing beliefs and were not influenced by actual temperatures.

As this study and McCright’s past research shows, political party identification plays a significant role in determining global warming beliefs. People who identify as Republican tend to doubt the existence of global warming, while Democrats generally believe in it.

The abnormally warm winter was just one in an ongoing series of severe weather events – including the 2010 Russian heat wave, Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the 2013 typhoon in the Philippines – that many believed would help start convincing global warming cynics.

“There’s been a lot of talk among climate scientists, politicians and journalists that warmer winters like this would change people’s minds,” McCright said. “That the more people are exposed to climate change, the more they’ll be convinced. This study suggests this is not the case.”

###

McCright’s co-authors are Riley E. Dunlap of Oklahoma State University and Chenyang Xiao of American University.

Nature Climate Change is part of the Nature Publishing Group, which publishes the flagship journal Nature.

 

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Steve in SC
November 24, 2014 7:59 pm

Department of Sociology. That means that he knows nothing about any real world phenomena.

mike restin
Reply to  Steve in SC
November 25, 2014 1:54 am

“Department of Sociology. That means that he knows nothing. about any real world phenomena.
——————————————–
There ya go…fixed it.

zenrebok
November 24, 2014 8:16 pm

Off topic – I know, but I’m thinking we need a REAL Earth day to show the sociologists how to treat a planet properly.
Get a big old industrial bottle of CO2, and have a very public, CO2 Party – for the plants benefit.
Seriously, just how much trouble would one get into, deliberately releasing a full bottle of the good stuff?
I suppose in the US, the EPA would drone taser you from low orbit.
In the E.U. they’d drop leaflets on you from Greenpeace, using one of the two working euro fighters they have.
In Australia they’d confiscate your plants, and put them in a facility in Naru, then watch some Aussie rules.
In New Zealand they’d sell your plants to the lowest bid Corporate, who’d strip them of fruit and sell the stalks as future investment instruments back to the Government, tax payers would foot the bill.
In Canada they’d give them back to the first Nations folks, who’d sell them to a US conglomerate as Bio-fuel feed stock. Matt Damon would star in an advert promoting it.
In Germany they’d deny there were any plants, that if there were plants they weren’t in Germany, if they were in Germany they probably crossed the border illegally.
In Holland they’d give the Plants a new garden, a years supply of plant food, free schooling at the local school, and blame the Dutch if the plants got out of hand and caused a riot.
In the UK the Tories would blame Labour and Labour would blame the Liberal Dems who’d blame the UKIP who’d roll into an electoral victory by blaming immigrants from Germany for bringing in the plants.
In France they’d add the plants to an appetizer.
In Italy they’d add the plants to an appetizer.
In Russia they’d buzz you with a Bomber, just to remind you, they have lots of Plant food they’re not going to give you this coming Winter.
China would bottle the CO2 again and sell it back to you.
India would manufacture a bottle, rebadge it with a PRC flag and sell it to the Chinese.
And finally, in Belgium, they’d try to inhale the CO2, thinking it Helium or Nitrous Oxide, only to become plant food themselves…a win for everyone.

Reply to  zenrebok
November 24, 2014 8:26 pm

+1000

ROM
Reply to  davidmhoffer
November 25, 2014 2:25 am

And another +1000

Alastair Brickell
Reply to  zenrebok
November 24, 2014 10:08 pm

That is a fantastic idea…would get the skeptics cause no end of publicity and might even get people thinking for a change.
In the US would the EPA arrest you???
I would be happy to give it a go here in New Zealand but obviously a worldwide campaign would be best. Any other takers?

rogerthesurf
Reply to  Alastair Brickell
November 24, 2014 10:18 pm

Sounds good.
Here in Christchurch we could light a fire in Latimer Square or use a steam generator and label it CO2 generator.
The thing is you can’t see CO2 but one can see the steam. Give some of the authors, who illustrate steam from industrial process or power generation as CO2, some of their own medicine.
Cheers
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com

Cold in Wisconsin
Reply to  zenrebok
November 24, 2014 11:05 pm

The best comment ever.

Annie
Reply to  zenrebok
November 25, 2014 3:36 pm

Brilliant! +1000

zenrebok
Reply to  Annie
November 25, 2014 10:27 pm

Thanks fellow travelers.
I have no idea how to kick off a global campaign, but its worth looking into.
We’ll need a caption/slogan…any copywriters out there?
And some kind of legal review, no one should be prosecuted for feeding plants, the steam idea appeals (Thanks Rodger!).
A strategic date needs to be considered.
And a reason goes down well too,…we’re doing this to [enter sound reason here] ~ No trolls invited.
Merchandising? T-Shirts! Balloons with logos and captions inflated with CO2?
And a bit of misdirection for the rent a riot crowd, that always pushes its, ugly, cultural skid-marxist face into Human business.
Think Local, Act Global! (its a well mixed gas) ~ now with 0.04% added CO2!
(yes not the actual caption, more of a rallying cry).
Anti-Socialize! The BIG Gas Off 2015!
(the polar bears made me do it)

Wondering Aloud
November 24, 2014 8:40 pm

Leaving aside the fact that extreme weather events are not on the increase: If their theory is right and the warming occurs at the poles first that would mean a reduction in extreme weather events. Is this just someone so desperate to evangelize his religion that he doesn’t even know which events he should be talking about?

philincalifornia
Reply to  Wondering Aloud
November 24, 2014 10:47 pm

They have a theory ? When are they going to tell us what it is ?
Has it ever risen above the level of a conjecture (now discredited) ?

November 24, 2014 9:26 pm

Now I read the abstract and looked at some of the figures with this article. Here’s the Abstract from :

Abstract:
Although perceptions of common weather phenomena moderately align with instrumental measurements of such phenomena, the evidence that weather or climatic conditions influence beliefs about anthropogenic climate change is mixed. This study addresses both foci, which are important to scholars who investigate human–environment interactions and observers who expect greater exposure to weather or climate extremes to translate into stronger support for climate change adaptive measures and mitigative policies. We analyse the extent to which state-level winter temperature anomalies influence the likelihood of perceiving local winter temperatures to be warmer than usual and attributing these warmer temperatures mainly to global warming. We show that actual temperature anomalies influence perceived warming but not attribution of such warmer-than-usual winter temperatures to global warming. Rather, the latter is influenced more by perceived scientific agreement; beliefs about the current onset, human cause, threat and seriousness of global warming; and political orientation. This is not surprising given the politicization of climate science and political polarization on climate change beliefs in recent years. These results suggest that personal experience with weather or climate variability may help cultivate support for adaptive measures, but it may not increase support for mitigation policies.

Seems to me that conclusion is honest. People will agree to pay for adaptation (i,e. better infrastructure) which is common-sense. But their feelings on mitigation, such as drastic CO2 reduction measures, are not affected by weather events. Good news.
Now if Prof McCright did call Climate cynics out for not believing in the climate change fraud, then he is a kool-aid drinker.
I did find it encouraging that “Only 35 percent of U.S. citizens believe global warming was the main cause of the abnormally high temperatures during the winter of 2012.” Sounds like at least there’s hope for 1/3 of the US population to avoid the Liberal Lies.

Charles Nelson
November 24, 2014 9:27 pm

Mc Wrong?

Annie
Reply to  Charles Nelson
November 25, 2014 3:39 pm

I thought of that one but refrained from adding it!

Dawtgtomis
November 24, 2014 9:55 pm

“… People who identify as Republican tend to doubt the existence of global warming, while Democrats generally believe in it.”
I’d bet those people were actually asked about ACGW rather than just GW.
Was his previous study on this possibly reading the NYT exit poll, or was he also not interested in the opinions of independents?
Why are critical thinkers generally labeled as cynics and societal dropouts?

November 24, 2014 10:27 pm

Only 35 percent of U.S. citizens believe global warming was the main cause of the abnormally high temperatures during the winter of 2012, Aaron M. McCright and colleagues report in a paper published online today in the journal Nature Climate Change.

So that means that 65% of US citizens have more common sense than this ‘know-nothing’ “scholar”.

marque2
November 24, 2014 10:29 pm

Kinda interesting, this sociologist is harping 2 year old information. Is it too early yet to talk about 2013? Was the extreme cold also AGW? Has he looked outside the window in 2014 – not much warmth in Michigan this year.

4TimesAYear
November 24, 2014 10:35 pm

Warmer winters? Where?

AP
November 24, 2014 11:01 pm

I thought it said he was a scientologist for a second.

AP
Reply to  AP
November 24, 2014 11:03 pm

Science+meteorology =

Katherine
Reply to  AP
November 24, 2014 11:40 pm

More like science + astrologist =

AP
November 24, 2014 11:06 pm

Do you know that certain people are predisposed to falling for scams. This is why con artists seek out those they can identify as previous victims of other con artists. So it’s no surprise that Democrat voters believe in global warming.

steverichards1984
November 24, 2014 11:14 pm

And here lies the problem: “we do hope that people accurately perceive the reality that’s around them”.
Just what is the reality when temperatures refuse to rise?

Cold in Wisconsin
November 24, 2014 11:18 pm

I think the sociologists should study the belief in other unrealistic ideas like ending poverty or creating a socialistic utopia and see which political tendencies agree or disagree with those as well? My guess is the conservatives will be a bit more skeptical and the liberals more accepting. As usual the libs believe they can “fix” the unfixable by their intellectual and moral superiority, which just amounts to arrogance and hubris. On the other hand, the conservatives would prefer to do nothing most of the time, which in many cases is the least harmful, as at least there are no unintended consequences. Unless you can wage a war…….no unintended consequences there.

Dave Wendt
November 25, 2014 12:12 am

Maybe someone should point out to this brain dead bozo that most of the CAGW crowd, at least those who are still trying to maintain the illusion of scientific integrity, don,t subscribe to the notion that individual weather events can be reliably ascribed to climate change. This is especially true since the events listed may be unusual, but they are far from unprecedented. Even in the very limited instrumental record there are multiple examples of all these phenomena. I’ve lived in SE MN for 65 yrs. Several yrs ago I went through several yrs of of daily weather records searching for that rarest of al MN weather phenomena i.e. a perfectly “average” day when the daily high, daily low and daily precip matched exactly the long term average. Over about a decade of data the yearly average number of such days was between 2 and 3 with a range of 0 to 5. In addition over 65yrs I can’t recall a “usual” year in any one of them,

Bob Ryan
November 25, 2014 12:16 am

Sociology as a discipline found its way into the universities in the 60’s and 70’s as the new universities of that era, had to find some way of capturing the interest of students. It did indeed capture their interest with its absence of any requirement for formal analysis – no mathematics, no laboratories, and no hard thinking required. It also drew into academic life teachers who, by and large, would not have been remotely considered for appointment in any mainstream discipline. It’s intellectual pedigree: the writings of Max Weber, Emile Durkheim and Karl Marx. Karl who? Yes, you read it correctly – the author of the Communist Manifesto and a variety of other tracts which led to that abomination of a political creed which enslaved half the world. But that wasn’t enough – they declared that the modern era ended with the holocaust and that we were no longer modern but ‘post-modern’. With thinking like that who needs reality? They did away with that too – reality is socially constructed. Sociology is the intellectual apologia for the left in politics – when we understand that, the rest falls into place.

Tucci78
Reply to  Bob Ryan
November 25, 2014 1:40 am

At 12:16 AM on 25 November, Bob Ryan uttered a blanket condemnation of sociology as a field of organized study, writing:

Sociology as a discipline found its way into the universities in the 60’s and 70’s as the new universities of that era, had to find some way of capturing the interest of students. It did indeed capture their interest with its absence of any requirement for formal analysis – no mathematics, no laboratories, and no hard thinking required. It also drew into academic life teachers who, by and large, would not have been remotely considered for appointment in any mainstream discipline. It’s intellectual pedigree: the writings of Max Weber, Emile Durkheim and Karl Marx. Karl who? Yes, you read it correctly – the author of the Communist Manifesto and a variety of other tracts which led to that abomination of a political creed which enslaved half the world. But that wasn’t enough – they declared that the modern era ended with the holocaust and that we were no longer modern but ‘post-modern’. With thinking like that who needs reality? They did away with that too – reality is socially constructed. Sociology is the intellectual apologia for the left in politics – when we understand that, the rest falls into place.

Unfortunately, this is rather more an argumentum ad hominem (using a few prominently odious exemplars to take a whack at a whole approach to the study of certain phenomena) and a blanket dismissal of methodologies.
I’m not a sociologist, and I tend to agree with the general observation that modern American university-level Sociology Departments are raddled with leftards, but then what university-level academic departments today tend not to be totally dominated by government-as-god statist (indeed, explicitly socialist) doctrinaires?
In the so-called “squishy sciences,” however (and here we refer commonly to fields such as sociology, psychology, and political economics), because they are condemned as manure-polishing, there has been a tendency over the past half-century and more to apply the tools of mathematical analysis à outrance to support illusions of precision and validity which simply do not exist.
Vide econometrics, which are almost universally employed “…to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.” In other words, duplicity in the service of con artists.
Might be better to call the approach “economeretricious,” and be damned to ’em.
However, the study of purposeful human action – praxeology, a term most commonly associated with Ludwig von Mises and the Austrian School of economics – ought not be dismissed simply because the information under consideration is acknowledged to be analog rather than digital.
So to speak.

Mathematical logic is appropriate to physics – the science that has become the model science, which modern positivists and empiricists believe all other social and physical sciences should emulate. In physics the axioms and therefore the deductions are in themselves purely formal and only acquire meaning “operationally” insofar as they can explain and predict given facts. On the contrary, in praxeology, in the analysis of human action, the axioms themselves are known to be true and meaningful. As a result, each verbal step-by-step deduction is also true and meaningful; for it is the great quality of verbal propositions that each one is meaningful, whereas mathematical symbols are not meaningful in themselves. Thus Lord Keynes, scarcely an Austrian and himself a mathematician of note, leveled the following critique at mathematical symbolism in economics:

It is a great fault of symbolic pseudo-mathematical methods of formalizing a system of economic analysis, that they expressly assume strict independence between the factors involved and lose all their cogency and authority if this hypothesis is disallowed: whereas, in ordinary discourse, where we are not blindly manipulating but know all the time what we are doing and what the words mean, we can keep “at the back of our heads” the necessary reserves and qualifications and the adjustments which we have to make later on, in a way in which we cannot keep complicated partial differentials “at the back” of several pages of algebra which assume that they all vanish. Too large a proportion of recent “mathematical” economics are mere concoctions, as imprecise as the initial assumptions they rest on, which allow the author to lose sight of the complexities and interdependencies of the real world in a maze of pretentious and unhelpful symbols. [6]

Moreover, even if verbal economics could be successfully translated into mathematical symbols and then retranslated into English so as to explain the conclusions, the process makes no sense and violates the great scientific principle of Occam’s Razor: avoiding unnecessary multiplication of entities.
— Murray Rothbard

Vince Causey
Reply to  Tucci78
November 25, 2014 12:46 pm

After reading Azimov’s Foundation trilogy, I expect these people are wanabee Hari Seldons, searching for the holy grail of something resembling Psychohistory.

Reply to  Vince Causey
November 26, 2014 5:55 am

The difference is that Hari Seldon’s science required real science (he was also the greatest mathematician). Sociology does not.

mike
November 25, 2014 12:50 am

Dear MSU prof,that’s ok . We think you’re a fascist or communist whore of Gore or Soros from a corrupt wanna be U.

Man Bearpig
November 25, 2014 1:04 am

You know, I’m sure that Sou, this guy and many others make statements like this so they end up on here, they must love the accolade of getting a mention on the multiple award winning – best science blog in the world, WUWT !

ren
November 25, 2014 1:22 am

Frosty weather front was surprised the entire northern United States. The unusually harsh weather in this part of the world is also convinced Polish crew transport Mamry, which contributed to the largest lake water freshwater USA – Michigan.
http://redir.atmcdn.pl/scale/o2/tvn/web-content/m/p5/v/e94f63f579e05cb49c05c2d050ead9c0/352ea7da-73ed-11e4-85a0-0025b511226e/S/000.jpg?type=1&quality=100&srcmode=3&srcx=1/2&srcy=0/1&srcw=632&srch=358&dstw=632&dsth=358

November 25, 2014 1:31 am

Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the 2013 typhoon in the Philippines – that many believed would help start convincing global warming cynics.

This annoys me. If this guy was genuine and if Nature Climate Change was a peer reviewed journal then it would be noticed that the IPCC has this to say about hurricanes like Sandy.
From IPCC AR5 TS 5.8.2 (page 106)

There is low confidence in the projections for the tropical Atlantic— both for the mean and interannual modes, because of large errors in model simulations in the region. Future projections in Atlantic hurricane sand tropical South American and West African precipitation are therefore of low confidence.

Which is not surprising as we learn in section 2.6.3 (page 216)

No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.

Hurricane Sandy should have no impact on belief in AGW.
When will Nature Climate Change be wound up?

Larry Fine
November 25, 2014 2:58 am

The same group of people who were Grubered by their political party on Obamacare also believe their other scams? Sounds about right.
And now for something completely different. Here is the skeptic’s case in 12 minutes.
http://youtu.be/0gDErDwXqhc

Eliza
November 25, 2014 3:23 am

You will find that 70% republicans don’t believe in AGW and 70% democrats do.You will also find that 70% under 35’s do as well and that 70% democrats are under 35. Replicate same worldwide. Same as Y2K2, socialism/communism in the 70’s ect. It will simply die out with time and aging. Be assured this AGW meme will take a full decade to die out, but it will. Expect maybe <0.1% of world population to believe in AGW by 2025. I'm sure if someone did an age survey it would show a large majority of seniors would not believe in AGW but a majority of juniors would. LOL

more soylent green!
Reply to  Eliza
November 25, 2014 11:00 am

Y2K2? Y2K — the major computing problem that was tested, verified to be real and corrected? Or something else?

DirkH
Reply to  more soylent green!
November 26, 2014 6:29 am

Some code was known beforehand to be affected. Storing only two digits for a year in your database is a hint. Mostly COBOL progs at the banks. No control circuits I know of were found to be affected.
Hysteria was out of proportion. Mountain out of molehill. At best this would have broken the stock market – but currently NYSE or NASDAQ break every other week and nobody cares. Likely intentionally even.

Editor
November 25, 2014 3:47 am

Also open for discussion at More On Miriam O’Brien’s Hot Whopper:
http://moreonmiriamobrien.wordpress.com/2014/11/25/miriam-obrien-says-belief-trumps-fact-at-wuwt-and-are-fake-sceptics-cynics/
Spinning Sou tries (and fails) at criticizing Anthony’s post.

Bruce Cobb
November 25, 2014 4:33 am

I think the question more is what will it take for True Believers like this Airhead M. McNumnuts to stop believing? Because clearly, he isn’t interested in the actual science, truth or facts. A true sociologist would find that question to be the more interesting one.

Khwarizmi
November 25, 2014 4:37 am

= = = = = = = = = = =
Those results are promising because we do hope that people accurately perceive the reality that’s around them so they can adapt accordingly to the weather,” McCright said.
= = = = = = = = = = =
http://funwithdysfunction.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/Siberia-kindergarten-kids-in-underwear-in-snow-and-freezing-water.jpg
-inaccurate perception of reality, with inappropriate adaptation (a huge problem in poor communities that can’t afford a climate scientist)
= = = = = = = = = = =
The abnormally warm winter was just one in an ongoing series of severe weather events … that many believed would help start convincing global warming cynics.
= = = = = = = = = = =
“And as global warming continues to heat oceans, freezing winters could increase” – DailyMail UK, September 2014
“So maybe sceptics should start arguing that it is milder winters, not colder ones, that refute global warming after all.” – Telegraph UK, October 2014
Q: What will it take to convince skeptics of global warming that the phenomenon is real?
A: an affliction with bipolar disorder

DirkH
Reply to  Khwarizmi
November 26, 2014 4:58 am

Sociolojournalists. Or Journasociologists.

John Endicott
November 25, 2014 4:57 am

Quote – “What will it take to convince skeptics of global warming that the phenomenon is real?”
Easy: for propoments of global warming to actually put forth a scientific arguement that includes falsification. When Global warming means snow is a thing of the past *and* it means more snow, it’s not falsifiable and thus not scientific. When global warming means wetter *and* it means drier, it’s not falsifiable and thus not scientific. When global warming means it gets warmer *and* it means it gets colder, it’s not falsifiable and thus not scientific.
Also, it would help if global warming proponets could make just one prediction before hand that turns out correct. So far they’re batting zero. Hurricanes have not increased or gotten more intense. ditto tornadoes. The artic still isn’t ice free (and the ice has been increasing). etc. Science is predicitive, global warming’s predictions have all been a bust.

Vince Causey
Reply to  John Endicott
November 25, 2014 12:48 pm

Or even simpler – if real world temperatures tracked what the models predict, instead of parting company.

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