Yes Virginia (and everyone else) there is an El Niño coming

Guest essay by Joe Bastardi

I am a bit surprised at some of the waffling in the meteorological community on the ENSO event ( then again, maybe it is I who will be surprised).  Its evolving . I stated on our weatherbell.com site at the start of the month to get ready for the drop in the SOI  that would allow the warmer sub surface water to come up and its like clockwork, its coming. Look at the SOI this month, and notice how over the last 15 days, alot of double digit negatives have shown up  after a period that was basically a wash. I don’t know why there is all the hand wringing with this event.

The JAMSTEC el nino index has had this nailed from the get go. The  REASON IT IS CALLED EL NINO  is in many cases its effects mature late in the year, and the reason for that I think is that rising pressures over Asia  force the shift in the global wind oscillation so that the feedback needed, when all things are equal, to produce the linkage occurs. It has been a mainstay of our idea all year ( if you remember the trashing of the Super Nino I did when that was being pushed). But its been interesting watching update after update hemming and hawing, the range going from the Super Nino in mainly public circles to an idea I saw last night, that low solar means no el nino.  Actually the opposite is true, as every sunspot min since the 50s has had an el nino around it within 18 months.

Here is the sunspot cycles with el ninos in X’s next to the mins. It is not to say that el ninos do not occur because of the more standard ideas, there are other el ninos that have occurred, it is to say, that when the sunspot cycle is weak, el ninos tend to show up, so the idea of less solar radiation means cooler, so no el nino does not look good when confronted with the facts seen here.

Which would make some sense since a reduction of incoming radiation in the tropics,  would have the effect of perhaps changing the pressure patterns and slowing the easterlies, allowing warm water to come to the top. In any case, check out the SOI fall  pattern the last couple of weeks in the dailies

The latest daily

The warmer water is there, and is coming to the top

The JAMSTEC has had this all along,  back in April when we had to debunk super nino hysteria

At that time the CFSV2 had this going to plus  2, the Jamstec had plus 1.25

The CFSV2  has this reaching a plus .8 or so now this winter, the Jamstec is consistent with its a shade over plus 1

It is interesting to note  2 things  1)  it was too warm too quick, but maintained about the same value for the winter  2)  The cry of the Super Nino crew that has changed from Super nino to  2 year nino, citing the CFSV2 is not agreed with at all by a) The D Aleo method that says in the cold PDO decadolly,  these warm spikes last on average  9 months and b) by the JAMSTEC  which agrees with Joes  theory, and the physical realities of the overall pattern.  That monster warm look in the Pacific 2 years from now is likely to be almost opposite of what it is now. Look at the  current  SST ( left)  then  in Jan 1958 middle, then in Jan 1961

Amazing, isnt it

Now a snide climate comment., what do you think is going to happen to the global temp, since here, the last 10 years,

when this predictable cyclical flip occurs?

Let’s remember while September was  1st warmest ever by NOAA’s bullhorn, it was 8th in the NCEP satellite era, 7th in Dr Roy Spencers UAH  and  9th in the RSS. Of course if you look at everything, then you see everything, but if you refuse to look, then you blindly report only on what you see. ( especially if it fits your missive