Despite all the gloom and doom from people like Paul Ehrlich and the warmers who say global warming will stunt food production, the reality is far different. It seems the increase in CO2 along with adaptive crop genetics may have combined to produce this bonanza.
Based on the latest forecasts for production and utilization, world cereal stocks at the close of crop seasons ending in 2015 would surge to 627.5 million tonnes, up 8.3 percent from an already large volume at the start of the season and its highest level in 15 years. Maize would account for the biggest increase, followed by wheat, while rice stocks are forecast to decline, albeit from a record level. The overall positive outlook, if realized, will result in the cereal stocks-to-use ratio increasing to 25.2 percent in 2014/15 from 23.5 percent in 2013/14, and the highest since 2001/02.
That’s the message on Tuesday from Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply, marking the start of the 2013-2014 harvest season. The ministry anticipates a record year for Brazilian agriculture and the agribusiness sector.
The ministry forecasts a record harvest of 90 million tons of soybeans, which could help it overtake the U.S. as the world’s top soybean producer. The 193 million tons of projected harvested grain also moves Brazil closer to the ranks of the world’s top food producers, a circle dominated by the U.S., China and India, among others.
Global wheat consumption for 2014/15 is raised 4.1 million tons to a record 714.1 million reflecting both higher food and feed use. Global wheat trade is raised with exports up 1.2 million tons to 156.0 million.
Global wheat production will be larger than previously expected amid an improving outlook for supplies from the European Union and Ukraine, the International Grains Council said.
Wheat output worldwide will rise to a record 717 million metric tons in the 2014-15 season, higher than last month’s forecast of 713 million tons and 0.6 percent bigger than the previous year, the London-based IGC said in an e-mailed report today. The agency also raised its forecast for global corn production to 974 million tons, 0.1 percent more than the August estimate while still below last season’s record harvest of 983 million tons.
“Wheat output is already seen at its highest ever level, while prospects for exceptional yields in the U.S. and EU help to boost the global maize forecast to within 1 percent of last season’s biggest-ever crop,” the IGC wrote. “Expectations for large grains, rice and oilseeds supplies continued to weigh on global export prices.”
h/t to Dennis Ambler and Patrick Moore.