As many WUWT readers know, I have been using alexa.com for quite sometime to gauge the performance of WUWT. Reader “Pat” brought this recent strange disparity to my attention. When you see things like the Drudge report plummet and MSNBC soar, you know immediately that something isn’t right:
Those who run watchdog news websites are scratching their heads and trying to make sense of the latest data released by a California company that measures website traffic.
According to data for July through September, almost every major website – from WND to the Drudge Report and Breitbart – saw its rankings drop on Alexa.com while pro-government sites mostly went up.
Source: WND
The claim seems to be true when you look at Alexa’s publicly reported traffic graphs. Here’s the Drudge Report according to Alexa:
(Lower numbers are better, for example, Google is #1)
![drudge[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/drudge1.jpg?quality=83)
And here is MSNBC according to Alexa:
I find that hard to believe. I find this even harder to believe, Fox News according to Alexa:
![Alexa_Fox[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/10/alexa_fox1.jpg?quality=83)
And the Soros driven Center for American Progress, aka thinkprogress.org according to Alexa
The exception to that knee up for left leaning websites starting in September is CNN.com according to Alexa:
So, this may be some sort of reporting or tracking goof. But, the oddity does not stop there.
Now, look at WUWT compared to the eco-news website “Grist”, which we long ago surpassed.
First, here is WUWT according to Alexa. Note the same “knee” in the graph as seen on the Drudgereport earlier:
And here is grist.org according to Alexa. Same “knee”, opposite direction:
Hmmm.
My internal wordpress.com counter for WUWT shows that WUWT had its best month ever in total views, nearly 5 million:
And, WUWT’s best ever day in its seven year history was in September 2014:
Something is broken at Alexa that seems to favor one sort of website over another. What’s up with that?
It may have to do with this recent “upgrade” at Alexa that explains a new method of calculating its rankings based on what it says is a wider panel of viewers.
“We’re excited to announce that after a lot of hard work, the size of Alexa’s global traffic panel will be significantly increasing,” writes Leigh Katcher in the blog. “Over the next month we’ll be incorporating lots of new data points, which will help improve the accuracy of our metrics. As a reminder, our data panel is a sample of global Internet traffic used to calculate Alexa ranks and estimate non-Certified metrics.”
The blog posting continued, “With better data, we’ll be able to offer deeper insights into your site, your competitors’ site and overall traffic strategy. One immediate result of the additional data is that you may see your traffic rank fluctuate, especially for sites ranked greater than 100,000.”
One wonders how such an “upgrade” can affect one type of site more than others. In the WND article, they say the disparity even extends to things like Planned Parenthood versus Lifenews, two sites that offer politically opposing viewpoints.
Here’s hoping its just a mistake – it would just be pathetic beyond words if a web ratings agency decided they had to cook the books to help the cause.
It’s all propaganda. Once you realize that simple fact you can see so much more that is complete BS.
“cook the books to help the cause” — noooo! Surely not? A ‘progressive’ outfit cooking the books.? Moral authority is an unerring force for good, How can moral authority lead to cooking the books?
sarc off/
This is happening with increasing regularity. George Orwell would understand.
One of the few legitimate polling outfits left [the Gallup Poll] lists ‘climate change’ as the very least important to the public. Everything else rates higher:
http://content.gallup.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/h7fjmcrciu6d7y5yx_-zjq.png
So if climate change is least important to people, why is it surprising that traffic to this site is decreasing?
I hate to say it but you can’t trust Gallup either. They folded last election cycle to pressure from Holder’s DoJ. We are living in a post legal world. “Our” government is pressuring (and by that I mean acting as an extortionist) our banks to stop doing business with perfectly legal businesses. Privately owned businesses are being forced to take jobs that directly conflict with their religious beliefs by an out of control judiciary. Freedom of speech is being systematically turned into Progressive censorship with the full power of an out-of-control federal government with 2.8 MILLION petty bureaucrats behind it… and that’s the sad truth.
Perhaps it’s time to dump Alexa. http://www.similarweb.com provides a slightly better presentation format anyhow.
It’s not looking good for “mistake”.
Remember Alexa is run by Amazon. Something very similar happened previously with rankings for sceptic books in their climate books rankings.
This time the site bias looks too distinct to be computer error.
It is not an uncommon practice. The IMDb, for instance, fixes ratings of “ecomedia” while dissenting comments fail to make it through.
The thing to do is what’s been done now, that is, to denounce it publicly. I would bet that there very few cases where this sort of thing happens due to “orders from the top”. Most likely, it is the random eco-soldier taking matters into his/her hands.
Eric: You mean “massage the data” don’t you?
Obviously it’s a result of station moves, equipment changes, and “adjustments”. 😉
You missed “Time of observation bias”. TOBS explains everything.
I think you are right TOBS adjustment seems to be the way how they did it. Nevertheless, I still wonder how the algorhytm runs…
And the adjustments are probably based on models. Why bother to measure actual results when you can just use models to get the results you want?
“Over the next month we’ll be incorporating lots of new data points, which will help improve the accuracy of our metrics. As a reminder, our data panel is a sample of global Internet traffic used to calculate Alexa ranks and estimate non-Certified metrics.”
Or, just like ‘The Hottest Year Ever’, it was hidden where no one lives.
Isn’t the Y axis of Alexa’s graphs upside down?
Yes… only the two of us seem to have noticed that 🙂
The Y axis is the log of the rank. Lower numbers indicate higher rankings.
From the author’s OP, “(Lower numbers are better, for example, Google is #1)”
It’s not a measure of the # of views, but the popularity. Just chant to yourself “Watch out for Number 1” when you’re on their site and the graphs will make more sense.
Would be nice if graphs had their axes labeled. I find this is semi-often a problem on this site. Not that I am complaining!! Still the best site for science, in general, as far as I am concerned.
Deliberate, to show “better” as up (lower numbers) and worse as down. I.e. better ranking goes up on the graph. Perfectly fine as long as it’s done consistently.
“One wonders how such an “upgrade” can affect one type of site more than others.”
Maybe they added data from Oakland?
I think it is a time of observation difference.
I wonder which collection procedure is more accurate. I’m more interested in how they changed things and what was wrong with the old way. And what is wrong with the new way.
The scale at left is “upside down”, no? So the ‘leftier’ sites are losing, t’udders increasing.
“You know Homer, the traditional way to cheat at golf is to lower your score.”
That’s because since lower is better, the inverted y-axis gives a more intuitive display.
“V” or “straight” tail?
They do “homogenization”?
You beat me to it!
What is a MSNBC?
Microsoft National Broadcasting?
Microsoft National Broadcasting Comrades
🙂
The ugly offspring of the union of Microsoft and NBC (National Broadcasting Company). The child is so ugly that Microsoft abandoned it in the wilderness a few years after its birth.
Is Alexa now measuring tree ring width, and employing a new and unique multivariate analysis, to measure viewership rates.
How about an algorithm that can turn random numbers into a hockey stick/viewership curve?
The Tiljander Syndrome?
Very good! [Maybe a little too much inside baseball for some…]
Oh, I see they are owned by Amazon. Jeff Bezos having a word with his Alexa CEO I guess.
Perhaps he asked them to Mann up.
A couple of those actually look like hoc… no, probably an optical illusion. (Sorry!)
If the data does not fit THEIR model , it MUST be adjusted…..
Maybe some disillusioned crimatologists have taken up new employment 🙂
they possibly switched to monitoring traffic indicators that represent more government activity than private individual activity.
This could be done without it being obvious, and all the while genuinely seeming as if the coverage were becoming more representative – and while actually, literally covering a greater portion or a more “geographically” representative portion of web traffic.
Overall, I have no problem believing it has been done on purpose. The Marxists have been well aware of the relevance of media consumption. This is the basis of a couple leading totalitarianism control efforts that appear well-meaning: the concept that conservatives are in an “echo chamber” and the concept that the government must ensure “diversity” in media so that the public has a sufficient knowledge base to participate in democracy.
The term is “deliberative democracy.” Sunstein The Totalitarian has a book out on this: “Democracy and the Problem of Free Speech.”
Sunstein is a leading edge for the totalitarians. He takes their wolf views and puts them in sheep’s clothing. After reviewing his views on why the govt should dictate portions of viewpoints flowing through the media, in this book, you can then review how he believes the Constitution needs to be re-written: The Partial Constitution. [You can also visit the website of this movement: find the website for “The Constitution in 2020.”]
We know Al Gore censored Google. That was well-documented: when climategate broke, many googled “climategate.” This should have prompted auto-complete to yield “climategate” if you typed “climateg ” into google search bar. But it did not. Even after this censorship was widely shared, and many people virally tried it themselves – the auto-complete failed to respond to the massive google searches for climategate.
https://www.seroundtable.com/archives/021306.html
These people are not regular U.S. Constitution-believing citizens who happen to be democrats; they are using the democrat party and label to advance their farther-left views. Enjoy.
Thanks for the information. It is always hard to keep up with our “betters” and how they want to improve on our freedoms.
Why would they release graphs with an inverted Y-axis? Misleading doesn’t even cover it. It’s just bizarre.
It isn’t inverted: a higher score means a worse performance and lower means better. Look at it this way: if you were top your score would be 1; if you were 100th your score would be 100.
It’s their algorithms, I suppose they can cook them anyway they wish. But if they misrepresent the value of the data to advertisers they risk their own business.
Huh? It makes perfect sense. Up is good, down is bad. Would you suggest the opposite?
That’s why I think they invert it.
Did the Ministry of Truth get involved?
I don’t think Alexa is to blame, it is just counting page views. Something made a lot of people – or at least their computers – to view pages that are otherwise seldom visited, increasing their rank and pushing ranks of other pages down without really affecting their traffic.
It might be related to Ebola for what I know.
Ebola makes people visit Grist?
The only thing that could cause a surge in Grist’s traffic would be if people turned en masse into middle-aged, liberal women. I’m using Alexa’s own information here.
I don’t see Grist getting out of its fluctuation noise level. The same for MSNBC, the same for thinkprogress. I think it’s a bit early to start spinning conspiracy theories.
A better indicator would be Google trends, which measures pretty much everything. The first link is for Watts up with that. The second link is for Thinkprogress.org. The third is for msnbc.com. The fourth for CNN.
WUWT: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%2Fm%2F0bh9jm4&cmpt=q
Thinkprogess: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=ThinkProgress.org&cmpt=q
msnbc: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22msnbc.com%22&cmpt=q
CNN: http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22cnn.com%22&cmpt=q
Also, if you enter terms for global warming and climate change, it shows a declining interest in the results graph. I think people are just not interested in the subject, which may explain why it ranks dead last in polls measuring what people are most concerned about.
Thanks. That really shows where “Think Progress” sits. What do the numbers actually count? Is it some multiplier of hits or searches?
So WUWT is hotter in South Aftrica and India than in the US? Hmm…
People have left off believing the alarmists. That’s why it’s less of an issue with them. They want jobs for loggers more than they care about the spotted owl. Drill, baby, drill!
Must be “models” aka “just making it up to fit a political meme”.
Sounds like consensus climate science.
Well, I suppose Audit Bureau of Circulation they ain’t … the only metric that matters … $$$
Alexa does not matter. What matters is your own stats coming in – actual visitor. The only problem is that you cannot easily compare – but you can compare yourself to yourself.
PS I vaguely remember that Alexa only has data for those who bother to download their toolbar. I maybe mistaken.
I have my own webiste and I use Google Analytics. I compare my past performance to today. I could not give a rat’s fart what others are doing.
Google often produces curious results dependent on how political the query is. I’ve always put that down to Al Gore being a Senior Adviser to their board. Perhaps he’s now got another nice little earner as a Senior Advisor to Alexa as well?
Pointman
Well, he invented the internet, after all!
Yahoo search as well Pointman. Whose CEO is/was a major Obama campaign finance bundler.
Yes, I knew Google was rigging things against alternative Internet media when they announced they were going to add extra points to “expert” web sites. I don’t remember any explanation of what “expert” meant to them. Maybe Mann, probably not WUWT.
Alternative media meaning independent perspectives, libertarians, conservatives…
Seems like there may be a niche opening up. Hard to crack the Google shell, but….
It sounds like Alexa is not actually counting page views, but using a sample set of “people’ and extrapolating what pages they view to the global population – a bit like Nielsen ratings or opinion polls. Such methods are prone to a major source of error – that the sample set does not represent the whole population. There are two ways to address this – try to get a “better” sample set (i.e. more representative), or weight the results based on how you think your sample is biased. Both of these allow room for positive discrimination (getting the result you want) and so there is always the need to consider the source of such sample-based polls.
If Alexa have changed their sample set or changed their weighting, then you might expect a step change in the rankings (as was mentioned above). However, since the ranking would not be a instantaneous thing, but probably based on a using a gradually reducing weight of past views together with present views, there would be a gradual change to the new levels as the older data has a gradually reducing effect on the ranking.
On the whole, I would surmise that Alexa has changed their weighting algorithm to reflect what they think is a better representation of the whole population. This could be an innocent change (you always think that more people think like you) or deliberate (as has been suggested), but regardless some explanation from Alexa is required as these ratings are used by many people to gauge public opinion and are thus of more than just passing interest.
Another major source of error in polls are that they reflect the views of the sort of people who self-select themselves for doing polls.
So you think this is like overweighting Democrats in political polls (saying 35% are Dems/25% Republicans when the registration numbers are reversed)? That seems a good guess. Thanks for your insight.
I think Rob Potter above nailed it:
October 15, 2014 at 6:49 am
“….On the whole, I would surmise that Alexa has changed their weighting algorithm to reflect what they think is a better representation of the whole population. …”
And from the way how the graphs move it really look like they use some adjustments – as Hector Pascal said, October 15, 2014 at 7:39 am
” You missed “Time of observation bias”. TOBS explains everything.”
Wonder when they will move to models and name it “data”. That must come as next step….