One of the most acerbic, caustic, and self-absorbed climate blogs has gone AWOL, and there has been no new information seen since the middle of July. The antithetically named ‘Open Mind’ blog run by the blogger known as ‘Tamino’ aka Grant Foster from Maine, has gone silent. And, there has been no explanation for his hiatus either by announcement, or in comments, that I can find. Below is a screen cap of his last posting on July 18th, 2014.
Doing a blog is hard work; doing a blog on climate science is even harder. It requires dedication, research, tolerance, and huge amounts of effort. There have been times when I’ve just wanted to walk away from it, to get my life back so that I could spend much more time with my wife and children, who have been sorely deprived of my company at the expense of WUWT on many occasions. So, I “get” how somebody could just walk away after deciding it isn’t worth it anymore. In the case of “Open Mind” the numbers he had been getting were in a “death spiral” long before he decided to quit in mid-July of this year.
Shown above is the graph I get from my Alexa dashboard, which gives me more details than is available to non-subscribers, which doesn’t provide any data once you slip below the ranking waterline of 100,000.
Was it by choice, or is it some personal or professional crisis that forced it? Did he have an epiphany over ‘the pause’ in global temperature and the disparity between climate models and reality? Did he finally realize that climate sensitivity is lower than has been claimed, and thus not a crisis as advertised? Did he finally realize that climate skeptics are starting to be embraced rather than reviled, and thus there is no longer a place for the sort of vitriol he had peddled in the past?
Like this?
[added]
I have no idea.
But, despite us being at odds over the issues of climate science, I wish him and his family well. I hope that it is nothing more than just needing to recharge and re-invest in himself, as we all need to do sometimes. The never ending grind of this effort can take its toll, and I more than anyone know just how much of a personal impact that can become.
Whatever the outcome, I sincerely wish you good luck, Grant Foster.
Does this mean Tamino’s mind is now … Closed?
Anthony, you’re a class act.
Not sure if sarcastic…
The real debate has not occurred where it should have occurred, in Congress and in the media and in the hallowed halls of science. In those places we saw pal-review and megalomania led by a megalomaniac-in-chief. Instead the real debate and real peer-review has occurred here and at other sites, including even Tamino’s.
In the future the records of web-sites, and especially this website, likely will be studied in the same way we now study the Hansard records to understand the psyche of Britain before World War Two.
If you have the time it is well worth pouring through the Hansard records of the statements of members of Parliament before a significant historical event. (At http://hansard.millbanksystems.com/ ) It is somewhat amazing how utterly wrong very smart people can be, and what lousy prophets most of us mortals are.
The most clear example of this involves the fact Winston Churchill was seen as a war-mongering anachronism, up and until a certain historical event involving a madman. After that event his harshest critics became abruptly silent.
Sometimes we are confronted by an event that is so glaringly unexpected that we need to stop and think. Things grind to a halt. We are “given pause.”
I think this may be happening in the case of Tamino. The question then becomes, “What was the event that was glaringly unexpected?”
IMHO it was the behavior of megalomaniacs, and the megalomaniac-in-chief, in Washington. It is increasingly apparent they don’t care a hoot about science, or about the scientific debate about Global Warming. In fact it would not surprise me if they quit funding scientists, and abandoned the pretense of requiring proof. They must know they have lost that battle, and I fear they may now employ tactics that are less civilized.
It does give one pause, when one realizes that the person they are trying to persuade isn’t listening.
“They must know they have lost that battle…”
They lost the science battle years ago, Caleb, and that didn’t stop them. What is derailing their train is the public battle. The media din is as noisy as ever, but the public is completely tuning out. The New York climate summit was an utter disaster; even paying rent-a-mobs couldn’t bring out a respectable turnout. Everything that’s happened in the past four years has just served to confirm the end of any international agreement after it froze to death in the Copenhagen snow in 2009.
I hope you are right. However whenever I see a rent-a-mob I have a queasy feeling in my gut, and imagine that same rent-a-mob arriving at my door on a witch-hunt. After all, I’m a Yankee from New England, and we do have a blotch on our record involving trials in Salem in the 1600’s….and it is getting close to Halloween…
However worry is a waste of energy. It is better to use energy simply speaking the truth, over and over and over and over….
http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/567477/20140925/australia-un-climate-summit-change-obama.htm#.VDtE4VduowQ
And they keep beating a dead horse. Why?
[97% of climatologists find live data is harder to hit than dead horses. .mod]
Caleb,
South of New England we don’t worry about a mob crashing thru the door. We, as individuals have a perfect means to counter it. 😉
It is amazing to learn that many in Europe and the US were very slow to realize that there were plans underway to exterminate people in the late 1930s and early 1940s by that madman and some others of his party.
Serious question for Mr. Watts re. Real Climate. What are the numbers on that site these days? Used to be an interesting place, but now it seems as though it’s Hank Roberts posting to himself, and even the Bore Hole has lost its juice. Still viable?
Have you ever wondered why sceptical blogs kept winning the blogger awards for specified categories? I suspect they are in the loud minority.
As always in the way of mankind there will also come a time when Anthony Watts, Jo Nova, Andrew Montford, Pierre Gosselin, Judith Curry, Steve McIntyre and many other prominent skeptic bloggers who have been central to both raising the questions about the claims and the predictions of the Climate warming alarmists and central to the spreading of alternative views on climate science will call it a day.
They have all excelled in their own ways in raising extremely relevant questions about the over the top claims of a climate catastrophists and in creating the outlets to both provide an outlet for the frustration , the doubts and the opinions of the ordinary interested citizen as well,
Through their blogs they have created a facility for community discussion on the claims of the alarmists and much else in science, domestic politics, international politics, energy and renewable energy and much else and how it all affects the lives of the ordinary citizen.
As the alarmist meme collapses as it appears to be now doing as “Nature” completely refuses to co-operate with any predictions regardless of whether from models or from trend lines out of hard data, they , the Skeptic bloggers will also take stock and many or most of them will decide they have accomplished what they set out to do, they have had enough and it is time to go onto another stage in their lives.
As Anthony has increasingly pointed out, the immense mental and psychologically draining efforts needed to keep a blog running for many years will have taken it’s toll on their mental, physical, family and social life and it will be time to close down the blog or just use it as a irregular outlet for their thoughts on some subject when they feel like it as Steve McIntyre now does.
For many of the Skeptic bloggers it will be a departure that is deeply regretted by their fans and denizens of their blogs but it is also very much a case of it being far more personally satisfying to those bloggers if they hear the message from their many fans and the community as;
“Why did you go” ?
rather than
“Why don’t you go”?
For most that time is still to come in the next few years ahead but the whole climate catastrophe cause is moving into the end game and the essential and critical role that the skeptic climate bloggers filled is now also drawing towards a closure.
I think you will find that AGW is basically dead and that unfortunately ALL climate related sites will vanish as people lose interest in the subject. I for one am beginning to lose interest as its obvious the skeptics have won and obvious that the alarmists know that they have lost but will simply just fade away..The proof is in the pudding… BTW Most lukewarmer sites as well, ie aka Lucia rarely posts anything these days ect ect…..
“ ect ect….
Might want to get that looked at.
The warmist blogs are moderating themselves to state of irrelevance. Punters aren’t going to visit a blog if they are not able to contribute. Blogs are not going to attract corporate sponsorship if the numbers of hits are not there. It is a credit to Anthony that he runs an inclusive blog that has heaps of content from guest contributors.
The other key thing is that comments are closed on his blog and have been since late July.
Thank You Mr Watts!
But lets not count the chickens before all the eggs have hatched… no way this is over. It’s a temporary setback for the warmists. They are plotting a new strategy as we speak and will be back reincarnated in another form, much like the communists did after the fall of the Soviet Union.
It is not over. Medusa has many heads and the main brain has yet to be cut off…
Anthony, you are too much of a gentleman sometimes! Do you believe he would reciprocate the sentiments in your final paragraph if the roles were reversed ?
No, but I have my own set of rules about how to treat people.
There is little doubt that Anthony has done an absolutely sterling job, and I agree with Caleb that this and some other outstanding sites will be a source of fruitful research by many a sociologist and historian. But we have much to do yet, and while we now see the tide turning, it is really only a few of the Generals that we see starting to leave the field of battle. The MSM will be some of the last to know. So let’s keep our muskets ready, and our powder dry! Also, there’s plenty more powder and shot on the way.
There’s nothing unusual about a blog suddenly stopping without any prior announcement. Bloggers often get tired of making the effort, or they run out of new things to say, or they get discouraged by the small size of their audience. Sometimes they take a break to deal with real-world stuff and find that they don’t want to go back. It’s the blogs that continue for year after year without ever slowing down that are unusual, because it requires such an exceptional degree of commitment.
I used to have a hard time avoiding erasure at “Open Mind”. I started my blog to write comments without having to worry about editorial control, so in a sense people like Tamino helped me get free to write. The problem I face is that I don´t usually agree with anything. This is why later I decided to get more serious and start writing science papers, with references and everything. I don´t think the Tamino blog would like most of what I write, but one never knows, maybe he´s growing up?
What will eventually occur is that when it becomes irrefutable that climate sensitivity to CO2 is absolutely incorrect, the entire group of Warming Alarmists will go dark. And when the global climate begins to steadily but slowly cool, they will all reemerge as Global Cooling Alarmists. They will do this without embarrassment nor irony. In 15-20 years they will have proven that man-made CO2 causes Global Cooling (children in the Northern Hemisphere will be warned that hot, dry summers will become a thing of the past).
Anthony you are very kind and classy to one who would likely gloat if the tables are turned.
My opinion of the situation:
“off the perch ” indeed..
The fate of blogs may be one of the best indicators of reality. For example, you can find everything you need to know about “Peak Oil” by checking out the rise and fall of ” The Oil Drum”.
He’s hiding in the abyss.
You’re a good man, Anthony Watts, to wish someone like that well. I don’t think he’d return the favor if you took a break of any kind.
Based on the Climategate emails, I’d expect that the Hockey Team would have a party if WUWT took a breather. You are appreciated, thanks for your hard work!
Tamino’s climate currency seems to have been spent. Suits me fine.
E. Grant Foster had a couple valid citations as a lay volunteer in a real astronomer’s work product but, as far as I can tell, no actual academic credentials, and yes, in the aftermath of the defamations per se he threw at me in 2010 that caused WordPress to freeze his blog until he removed them (he chose to delete all), I had looked. If anyone has knowledge to the contrary, please do share it.
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.”
– “Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds”, Charles Mackay, 1841
E. Grant Foster’s recovery can be expected to be slower than average.
A list of pamphlets (12 to 71 pages) of light curves by the late astronomer, Dr. Janet Mattei, that E. Grant Foster contributed to are here:
http://www.paperbackswap.com/E-Grant-Foster/author/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janet_Aky%C3%BCz_Mattei
More of his actual useful work at AAVSO (2 out of 3)
http://www.aavso.org/new-stats-book-grant-foster
http://www.lulu.com/spotlight/archimedesbooks
The alarmist book found at the last link has usual suspect mandias (Scott Mandia, BS/MS meteorology, a community college professor) describing Foster as a “world class mathematician” but doesn’t specify which world Mandia was referring to.
I do not hope or pray that he has simply gone away for a while to ‘recharge his batteries’.
Nor do I hope he or his are experiencing personal problems or tragedy.
I sincerely hope he’s reconsidered his position in light of the evidence. That would be a breakthrough.
Once the cabal starts to shed members, the ‘dark age’ of climate science will quickly come to an end. And maybe we’ll start to learn things about our climate again.
Perhaps our children’s lives will be better for it.
Open Mind??? Tamino’s “Open Mind” never existed….
It was the name of a blog but never a reality.
Reminiscent of a Sherlock Holmes solution, “there never was such a person”….
Is a commenter being open minded when he/she tries to persuade other commenters to accept the positions of the virtually unpersaudable Grant Foster (aka Tamino)?
John
Anthony, I’m curious: what’s been happening with the Alexa ranking of Peter Sinclair’s ClimateCrocks.com? Is it sinking, too?
I was active there for several years, because it was the only alarmist blog I could find that didn’t censor polite skeptical comments. But Sinclair banned me on February 24th. I wonder how his blog has fared since then?
Yes, it does appear in this thread that WP is not posting some comments in chronological order.
Example: the below comment seems to have been posted out of chronological order:
John
The reason for the prolonged decline in “Open Mind” readership is quite simple: like many blustering blog-lions, Tamino had no real expertise in analyzing climatic time series. This was made evident by his amateurish take on various analytic issues and by his naive use of “FFT filtering” among many other lapses.
Maybe Tamino forgot the password.