Eric Worrall writes: The British and Icelandic MET offices are expressing concern about the possible effect on the climate, of a potentially enormous volcanic eruption in Iceland.
According to The Express, a UK daily newspaper;
“BRITAIN could freeze in YEARS of super-cold winters and miserable summers if the erupts, experts have warned.
Britain could face a freezing winter if the Icelandic volcano erupts Britain could face a freezing winter if the Icelandic volcano erupts.
Depending on the force of the explosion, minute particles thrust beyond the earth’s atmosphere can trigger DECADES of chaotic weather patterns.
…
The first effect could be a bitterly cold winter to arrive in weeks with thermometers plunging into minus figures and not rising long before next summer.
The Icelandic Met Office has this week warned of “strong indications of ongoing magma movement” around the volcano prompting them to raise the aviation warning to orange, the second highest and sparking fears the crater could blow at any moment.”
The Bardarbunga eruption could yet be a fizzle – the climatic damage caused by the eruption very much depends on the scale of the eruption, the amount of sulphates and ash hurled into the atmosphere, and even the direction of upper atmospheric wind patterns.
But the potential for serious disruption to the climate – and potentially severe impact on Northern Hemisphere food production, even a new year of food shortages, such as occurred in 1815, cannot be dismissed.
The only silver lining is that, since Iceland is in the far North, the southern hemisphere will be to some extent insulated against any climatic disruption – so unlike the disasters in the 1700s and 1815, it should be possible for food from the south to help mitigate the effects of Northern crop failures.
One thing for sure – Dr. Bob Carter was right, when he warned that the world is unprepared for the very real risk of global cooling.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/13/prof-bob-carter-warns-of-unpreparedness-for-global-cooling/
h/t IceAgeNow
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“Britain could face a freezing winter if the Icelandic volcano erupts. Depending on the force of the explosion, minute particles thrust beyond the earth’s atmosphere can trigger DECADES of chaotic weather patterns.
The first effect could be a bitterly cold winter to arrive in weeks with thermometers plunging into minus figures and not rising long before next summer.”
Oh my oh my, the wishful thinking is not even camouflaged. The hysterics of our career alarmists and the $50million computer they bought to assist them! This will allow them to broaden their forecast range even to more ridiculous extents. The desperation, the straw clutching, is palpable. Let me make a prediction. When the cold weather hits as it must from things already in motion, you will see news reports and scientific papers rushed into print blaming this little volcano. We better send some fire bombers over to snuff this thing out. These guys would happily breath sulphuric acid fumes if it gave them an excuse to cling to their shriveled climate theory. Shameful stuff.
Trivia department: The fourth character in “Bárðarbunga” is an “eth” not a “d” as in English. It has the “th” sound that you get in the English word “them” (except that no word in Icelandic can begin with an eth).
If this interests you, see also “thorn”. (Putting “eth and thorn” into your search engine will get both.)
Ian M
Seems like a really good time to just sit back and collect data.
The models can wait 🙂
“Ric Werme September 20, 2014 at 4:11 pm
At least we’re sure it isn’t the $2.3M mansion in Nashville with the $40K per year utility bill. Hey, that one made Snopes! http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/gorehome.asp”
Snopes’ liberal bias makes them as unreliable as the Guardian. The article in this link spends half its time making excuses for Gore’s extravagant 12x energy use. Like the rest of is don’t have home offices!
“…can trigger DECADES of chaotic weather patterns”
Decades? We’ve seen over and over in the data that it’s only a couple of years at best. This sounds like a veiled attempt to excuse, or bet hedging, against any upcoming or ongoing cooling/stagnation.
I found Iceland’s fake human driven forecast for 2050, part of a series of fake forecasts, each ending with Moonbeen’s call to action ahead of the Climate Summit. They predict forests, insects, and an agricultural boon. Sort of like when the Vikings had farms and……wait a minute……that was before human’s caused warming……..never mind.
Sadly our leaders don’t compare to Hammurabi:
http://atomicinsights.com/fighting-climate-change-skeptics-in-the-pro-nuclear-community/#comment-46340
Since the “Iceland’s ‘Bardarbunga’ volcano is lighting up the night sky” thread is about to close, I’m going use this for further daily observations. Previous thread here.
The webcam for Bardarbunda2 is quite good tonight. Zoomed in, bright fountains, glowing lava flows, wind blowing the smoke away. Most interesting I’ve seen in a week.
Screen Capture
Last 24 hrs quake activity:
At Bardarbunga: one M 5.5 at 9 km, a M4.5, M4.2 same depth all 13-18 hrs ago.
Three M3.5-3.7 between 2-5 km, 5-8 hrs ago.
No activity to the west or south in the past 24 hrs.
At the fissure, a Mag 2.2 at 4 km 12 hrs ago at the top of a pipeline of mag 0-1 quakes.
NE of Askja, four small ones, Mag 0.5-1.2 4-8 km.
[Snip. Labeling others as “denialists” is not allowed here. ~ mod]
Last 16 hrs:
Bardarbunga: A series of 10 quakes Mag 3.0-3.9, plus two Mag 4.7-4.9 quakes in the past 4 hrs. Most at 5-8 km, one was 1 km.
A couple quakes west of Bar, largest 2.2 at 1 km. some scattered small ones.
Two small events south of Bar.
The fissure has a typical swarm of small quakes. Mag 2.2 at 11 km was the biggest.
What is unusual is that there were a Mag 2.2 (5 km) and Mag 1.4 (9 km) under the Askja crater, both 6 hrs ago. Normally the activity is NE of Askja and sub Mag 1.5 for the past week.
We’ll see if it is a one-off.
I have not seen reports about the fissure in several days, but from the webcam last night and comparing it to early September screenshots, it seems to me to be shortening in eruptive length.
This is a video of the fissure eruption which I highly recommend. It really shows that the scale of it is far bigger than appears on the webcams which are 20-30km away.
Two big surprises in the video. First, the length of the lava river on the surface. I figured it would have crusted over and become a lava tube most of the length.
Second, the last 20 seconds of the video with a fountain higher than the helicopter.
Metadata says the video was Sept. 20.
The lava field is now up to 0.5 cu km and, judging by the pictures from mila 2 tonight, the eruption isn’t slowing down any. If anything, it looks to be getting stronger.
Satellite picture showing the extent of the magma intruding into the fissures :
http://ww2.volcanodiscovery.com/typo3temp/pics/134c03c594.jpg
This is a great visualization that combines the GPS sinking of the Bardarbunga crater with the time series of earthquates From Sept 12 thru Sept 22.
5 meters of subsidence and 8 Mag 5+ quaks, 18 Mag 4-5 quakes.
Past 24 hrs at Bardarbunga: at least 10 quakes above Mag 3. including a 5.2 and three above 4. All about 5-7 km depth.
One Mag. 2 quake west of Bar.
Very quiet in the neighborhood of Askja. Only three, biggest M1.4
Of note at the fissure: A M2.6 at 13 km Biggest there in days.
Long narrow pipeline of quakes to the surface from there.
The map shows the fissure groups is extending SSW closer to Bardarbunga. But these are very small, below Mag 1.
Past 24 hrs at Bardarbunga:
Web cam has been zoomed out about 1/2 size than previous days. Lava flows to the left and right. A bit of vibration, though it doesn’t look windy in the smoke.
At least 9 quakes between Mag 3.4 to 4.9 from 10 km to the surface.
Biggest quake at the fissure was M2.1 and M1.8 at 13 km.
Biggest around Askja was M1.0[.
Past 24 hrs
at Bardarbunga: Only 5 quakes M3+ from 0-10 km. One was M5.0. An unusually large number of Mag 1.8-2.4 quakes 5-7km in the past 5 hrs. I don’t know whether that is unusual or whether it is unusual to not have larger recent quakes masking the signature.
Biggest at the fissure was Mag 2.4 (10 km) and two Mag 1.8s.
NE of Askja: One M2.2 at 3 km about 30 hrs ago.
the webcams were not noteworthy the past two nights.
ruv.is published a video. Not exceptional. It has an animation of the subsurface plumbing.
Video of the eruption taken on September 25th :
Past 48 hours
At Bardarbunga: two 5.2 quakes, one at 8km, another at 2 km.
Four quakes between M4.0 and M4.9.
Six quakes between M3.0 and M3.9. Nothing deeper than 10 km.
At the Fissure, activity is way down. only nine quakes at M 1.0+ Biggest M1.7 at 7km.
Nothing shallower than 7 km in past 24 hours.
Around Askja, only five quakes M1.0+ Biggest 1.8.
Only one quake, M0.9, in past 24 hrs.
West of Bardarbunga. seven quakes M1.0+ biggest M2.2
No new news from ruv.is.
Weather forecast has been for rain the past few days. I found no information about how much.
The fissure is visible in webcam2, but it is not sharp.
Not rain but snow.
Picture: “Winter arrives at Holuhraun” Lava advancing on a snow field.
Last 24 hrs:
They say there is no obvious decrease in lava flow out of Holuhraun. They estimate a total of 0.6 cubic km of lava has erupted. This is currently the 2nd largest eruption in 150 years. The largest eruption was Hekla in 1947-48 that took 9 months to extrude 0.8 km*3 of lava. Holuhraun could surpass that in within two weeks, a total of 1.5 months.
No obvious decrease in lava, but an astounding decrease in the number of quakes today.
http://en.vedur.is/photos/jarvatj_rit/140930_0320.png
One M5.5 at 7km on the SE side of Bardarbunga
Four midside, M3.9, M4.1, M4.4, M4.9 all stacked vertically NW of the M5.5 in the Bard. area.
Only five M2.0-M3.0, and only twenty Mag 1.0-2.0, (some at the fissure) so few you can count them off the plot. I think the quakes at Bardarbunga are spreading out.
The fissure is very quiet. only 9 quakes M0.6-M1.3, mostly between 7 and 12 km, one at the surface.
Four M0.8-M1.2 widely scattered around Askja. Very quiet, very small.
The Bardarbunga2 webcam is misaimed tonight and not very interesting.
The Bardarbunga1 webcam is nice. A “light of the sky” shot with full width lava flow.
Last 24 hrs: At Bardarbunga
No mag 5’s
Six biggest: 4.0, 4.2, 3.8, 4.8, 4.9, 4.2 3 – 10 km
An M2.9 on the surface, plus M1.8, 1.9 on the surface.
An M2.5, M2.6 at 20 km
the fissure has a usual vertical pipe of M0.8-M1.4 quakes 5-13 km.
Nothing around Askja or west of Bardarbunga.
The shallow-surface quakes and the 20km quakes at Bar are the unusual aspects today. It is the first day without a Mag 5+ in a while although it just missed with a 4.8 and 4.9.
Askja has been getting quieter for some days.
The webcams are fogged-weathered in. Nothing in the news.
Looked at the baering/3Dbulge plot again this morning and a M2.8 showed up in the fissure group at 10 km, but “19 hours ago”. So it was a late posting to the database. The day before, there were two M2.2 quakes at the fissure that also appeared about 12 hrs late. Odd.
three M 4.2 quakes at Bardarbunga in the past 8 hrs. 3, 6, 8 km.
Bulletin of Volcanology
September 2014, 76:869 Date: 16 Sep 2014
Dike emplacement at Bardarbunga, Iceland, induces unusual stress changes, caldera deformation, and earthquakes
Agust Gudmundsson, Nora Lecoeur, Nahid Mohajeri, Thorvaldur Thordarson
Another video, this one shot on September 28th. :
CCTV footage of Japan’s Mount Ontake volcano eruption
Shades of Mt. St. Helens. The mountain side let go.
The CCTV clip is heavily time compressed 12 minutes (720 seconds) into just 19 seconds. about 40:1
YouTube video: DJI Quadcopter video flights around the Fissure
Part of a series called: DJI Feats.
Last 48 hrs at Bardarbunga:
Ten Mag 4.0-5.0. (Six M 4.5-5.0)
Five Mag 3.0-3.9
28 Mag 2.0-2.9. 17 in the past 24 hrs.
Everything bigger than M2.0 is at Bardarbunga.
New activity NE of Askja A vertical string of small quakes M0.8-M1.1 crowned by a M 2.0. at Long 16.35W
12-7 km At least 11 quakes in the string.
Close by the Askja crater (at Long 16.65W) there are about five M0.7-1.6 quakes all at about 4 km.
At the fissure, a more spread out group than recently, at least 21 quakes of M 0.6-1.4. 5-14 km.
West of Bar, 1 quake, M1.3, near surface.
South of Bar, well under the glacier, 4 quakes, shallow, a M2.6 at 1 km followed by M1.4 at 2 km, M0.7 st 2km, M1.3 at 2 km. (Long 17.45W) The M2.6 is the biggest I’ve see in this location, but it is easy to miss. You have to look at the 3DBulge on end or they get superimposed by more recent quakes in the main crater.
the webcams Bar2 is zoomed in, out of focus and dim. (rain/snow?). Bar1 is zoomed out, lava stream glowing across 50% of field of view.
Nothing new in ruv.is news.
vedur.is has a chart showing 9.25 meters of sinking of the top of the glaciersince 9/14. The rate is constant. The question is, how much of that is the caldera sinking, and how much of it is melting of the glacier from the bottom?
Great Photo!!: Erez Marom Photography facebook photo page:
‘VOLCANIC SUNSET’
An aerial shot of a new lava flow in Holuhraun. We were incredibly lucky to be there in time for spectacular sunset colors. What an evening!
[Taken from above the yellow-orange-red-brown lava flow front, looking back along the lava river to the lava fountains with a dusky sunset behind it.]
Webcam Bardarbunga2 is looking very interesting now.
http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/
I wish I could capture a timelapse tonight.