Claim: New Antarctic sea-ice extent due to wind and 'atmospheric warming' – what warming?

Ah ya gotta love the ABC of Australia, they’ll find a way to keep the meme alive no matter what, as reported in WUWT two days ago,  they found this guy to give a “the warming is wot dun it” quote with their story about the record level of Antarctic sea ice:

ABC_antarctic sea ice

CEO of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Tony Worby, said the warming atmosphere is leading to greater sea ice coverage by changing wind patterns.

“The extent of sea ice is driven by the winds around Antarctica, and we believe that they’re increasing in strength and part of that is around the depletion of ozone,” he said.

Warming doesn’t seem to be a problem when you look at the satellite data for the Antarctic continent, in fact, there is a slight cooling:

rss_ts_channel_tlt_southern polar_land_and_sea_v03_3 Source: Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU)

ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/graphics/tlt/plots/rss_ts_channel_tlt_southern%20polar_land_and_sea_v03_3.png

UAH_antarctic(UAH data added to original story) Source: University of Alabama, Huntsville

There is some warming along the Antarctic peninsula, but that seems to be related to wind and ocean patterns there, along with possible waste heat from the little warm pockets of humanity where the temperatures are measured. The Antarctic peninsula has the highest concentration of people on the continent, mainly because conditions are much less harsh there.

antarcticatemps1957200611That doesn’t stop some people from trying to claim (Steig et al. 2009, using Mannian math) that the entire continent is warming though. Fortunately, there are climate skeptics that have done published science to decisively refute such claims:

Skeptic paper on Antarctica accepted – rebuts Steig et al

Steig et al – falsified

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Colin Landrum
September 15, 2014 12:54 pm

I have seen some people say that the extent may be larger, but the mass is less because the ice is thinner. Is that a valid point?

David A
Reply to  Colin Landrum
September 16, 2014 2:57 am

The SSTs around Antarctica have cooled a bit over the last few decades. Antarctica loses most of its ice every SH summer. There is no evidence of decreasing thickness.
The Arctic sea ice is much thicker this year then the last two years. (More third – fifth year ice.)

William Astley
September 15, 2014 1:11 pm

As the albedo of the Antarctic continent is slightly higher than low level clouds (unlike the Greenland Ice sheet, the high speed Antarctic winds break down the snow crystals to form an ice like substance) a decrease in low level clouds in the high latitude South Pole causes the warming of the surrounding ocean and slight cooling of the Antarctic ice sheet.
In the Northern Hemisphere as the albedo of the Greenland Ice sheet is roughly the same as the low level clouds and the Greenland Ice sheet temperature is not isolated from by a polar vortex from the surrounding ocean a reduction in low level clouds in the high latitude Northern regions causes the Greenland Ice sheet to warm.
High resolution proxy data shows the Greenland Ice sheet repeatedly warmed when the Antarctic ice sheet cooled and vice versa. This observational fact is called the polar see-saw.
This paper by Svensmark explains the polar see-saw and how changes in the solar magnetic cycle cause it.

The Antarctic climate anomaly and galactic cosmic rays The Antarctic climate anomaly and galactic cosmic rays by Henrik Svensmark
Borehole temperatures in the ice sheets spanning the past 6000 years show Antarctica repeatedly warming when Greenland cooled, and vice versa (Fig. 1) [13, 14]. North-south oscillations of greater amplitude associated with Dansgaard-Oeschger events are evident in oxygenisotope data from the Wurm-Wisconsin glaciation[15]. The phenomenon has been called the polar see-saw[15, 16], but that implies a north-south symmetry that is absent. Greenland is better coupled to global temperatures than Antarctica is, and the fulcrum of the temperature swings is near the Antarctic Circle. A more apt term for the effect is the Antarctic climate anomaly.
Attempts to account for it have included the hypothesis of a south-flowing warm ocean current crossing the Equator[17] with a built-in time lag supposedly intended to match paleoclimatic data. That there is no significant delay in the Antarctic climate anomaly is already apparent at the high-frequency end of Fig. (1). While mechanisms involving ocean currents might help to intensify or reverse the effects of climate changes, they are too slow to explain the almost instantaneous operation of the Antarctic climate anomaly.
Figure (2a) also shows that the polar warming effect of clouds is not symmetrical, being most pronounced beyond 75◦S. In the Arctic it does no more than offset the cooling effect, despite the fact that the Arctic is much cloudier than the Antarctic (Fig. (2b)). The main reason for the difference seems to be the exceptionally high albedo of Antarctica in the absence of clouds.

CodeTech
September 15, 2014 1:53 pm

Benson – it’s because the alarmists created that graph out of thin air to look, well, alarming.
Any similarity between that alarming graphic (which was on the cover of a highly visible magazine) and reality is purely coincidental. We (skeptics) occasionally use that graphic as a way to hammer home the fact that the alarmists are dishonest.

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  CodeTech
September 15, 2014 3:17 pm

Also:
The “most of the continent” that is “warming” is “warming by LESS THAN 1/4 of ONE degree (0.25 degree C).
This in a region who average temperature is -35 to -50 degrees C.
When “ice melts” at 0 degrees – And, actually, it only starts melting at 0.0 and requires a long time at 0.0 to lose all of its heat.
Thus, even IF that 2 and 3 degree rise in temperatures up on the limited area of the West Peninsula were “real” … they could NOT “melt ice” across the even the Peninsula itself, much less have ANY effect on the rest of the continent!

jones
September 15, 2014 1:58 pm

Mr Jimbo, Sir,
Any lists at hand with respect to the Antarctic?….Just for revision purposes.
Jones

Keith
September 15, 2014 2:01 pm

In the same way as Josh cartooned on the 52 excuses for the lack of warming or “the pause”, “hiatus” or plateau, it would be good to compile a list of excuses for record Antarctic sea ice.

Mike Ozanne
September 15, 2014 2:11 pm

At least on Mythbusters when they say “I reject your reality and substitute my own” they are being funny on purpose….

September 15, 2014 3:29 pm

The ABC is partisan to the point of hilarity (Given that it’s a government funded organisation which opposes totally and wholeheartedly the personalities and policies of the present government.) it should be defunded immediately.

Christopher Hanley
September 15, 2014 3:30 pm

There have been few surface recording stations at Antarctica since 1957.
I assume the pretty image of the Near-Surface Air Temperature Reconstruction is a figment of someone’s imagination at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Centre Scientific Visualisation Studio employing ‘artist’s license’.

September 15, 2014 6:58 pm

Dr Tony Worby discusses the importance of sea ice in global climate:

The good doctor warbles on about the effects of a reduction in sea ice, saying that If warming is happening we would expect to see a reduction in the amount of sea ice formed and more heat being absorbed by the ocean. And as sea ice is an Important driver of ocean circulation we would expect to see changes in ocean currents.
Thus, according to the warbling logic of the CEO of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, we can now look forward to cooling ocean currents and a cooling atmosphere as a result of increased Antarctic sea ice. Q.E.D.

Gary Hladik
September 15, 2014 7:15 pm

dbstealey (September 15, 2014 at 1:21 pm): “In reality [there’s that pesky ‘reality’ again], extreme weather events have been decreasing for many years.”
I think it would be more accurate to say that there’s no discernible trend:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/03/pielke-jr-agrees-extreme-weather-to-climate-connection-is-a-dead-issue/
From the article: ‘There’s simply no connection between droughts, hurricanes, thunderstorms, flash floods, tornadoes and “climate change”’

David A
Reply to  Gary Hladik
September 16, 2014 3:05 am

Hurricanes and tornadoes are down over the past 9 years. Droughts in the US are down compared to the highs in the 1930s and early 40s, and not high relative to any annual period. (Not certain about global drought, but NH snow cover is flat , trending up a bit.) US fires are down in the last two years; but globally, ???
So not certain of your time frame for determining up or down.

King of Cool
September 15, 2014 7:18 pm

For decades now the overfed, obese, self perpetuating, gargantuan monster called the Australian Broadcasting Commission has been spreading “the message” from the prophets of the global warming faith and demonising the “evil pollutant” carbon dioxide. And in their eyes, the minuscule few who dare to question are characterised as non believers, simply denying the bible of scientific truth when in fact it is the ABC who continually deny any alternative point of view.
Almost every day of the week on their vast over funded, overstaffed, excessive network of radio and TV stations and online networks you will find a new sermon from their expanding CAGW library from an “ABC expert” especially selected from the thousands of academics sucking greedily from the public teat to alarm and vilify in the name of scientific research.
Not only is the ABC’s practice blatantly biased and a complete disregard to their tax payer funded charter, it is a shameful disgrace to the profession of journalism bordering on criminal negligence of their public responsibility.
Something needs to be done. I hope it is my lifetime because I do not have time for another 17 years of global warming pause, increasing sea ice or some other way for Mother Nature to prove them wrong.

September 15, 2014 7:37 pm

Gary Hladik,
From what I’ve been reading, extreme weather events are moderating. Aside from the link I posted above, these sources indicate that extreme weather events have been declining:
click1
click2
click3
click4
click5
click6
click7
click8
click9
click10
click11
click12
click13
click14
click15
Looks like a trend to me, but your mileage may vary…
[And of course, I was only responding when I pointed out to theboltonskydiaries that his belief that “Droughts, floods, ever increasing super storms, wild fluctuations in weather…” are all increasing, was based on misinformation. As the links above show, extreme weather events are not increasing. They are generally declining.]

David A
Reply to  dbstealey
September 16, 2014 3:25 am

Good response.

King of Cool
September 15, 2014 7:44 pm

Correction – Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
But I can think of many more apt names to fit those initials.

brian macker
September 15, 2014 8:01 pm

So in effect thy are claiming that there is a natural negative feedback due to warming. Warming increases ice extent when then increases albedo. This is great news. no more need to run around like Chicken Little. 🙂

tango
September 16, 2014 12:14 am

If our liberal govt had any guts it would shut the ABC down thay live on grants so it wbould be easy

Carbon500
September 16, 2014 1:04 am

Al Gore describes his visit to Antarctica on p139 in his book ‘An Inconvenient Truth’.
He says “….although I knew it would be cold in Antarctica, I really had no idea how cold. The forecast said ’58 below zero’, but nothing in my experience equipped me to understand what that would mean.”
Maybe his visit should have told him something about the real world? Clearly it didn’t.

njsnowfan
September 16, 2014 1:20 am

There is no Warming in Antarctic. I have been watching temps there all winter and for almost their entire winter temps have averaged -2C to -5C below average.
Few weeks ago temps did go above average for a short time.
https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/511790636677472256/photo/1
How do you post pictures, only way I can is post on twitter ant put link here.

njsnowfan
September 16, 2014 1:24 am

Anthony, Today Antarctic Sea ice AREA should break the old all time record high.
https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/511467922011979776/photo/1

njsnowfan
Reply to  njsnowfan
September 16, 2014 1:26 am

All-Time Sea Ice Area record was set in 2007..

goldminor
Reply to  njsnowfan
September 18, 2014 1:18 pm

The all-time record was set yesterday from the looks of it…http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/antarctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

tadchem
September 16, 2014 7:33 am

“(P)art of that is around the depletion of ozone” says CEO of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Tony Worby, in between snuffles at the trough.
Fortunately, the “Earth’s ozone layer on track to recovery, scientists report” http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/09/140910162324.htm
so the ozone is increasing and the Antarctic is cooling.

September 17, 2014 11:22 am

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059239/abstract
Fan, T., C. Deser, and D. P. Schneider (2014), Recent Antarctic sea ice trends in the context of Southern Ocean surface climate variations since 1950, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2419–2426, doi:10.1002/2014GL059239.

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