Claim: New Antarctic sea-ice extent due to wind and 'atmospheric warming' – what warming?

Ah ya gotta love the ABC of Australia, they’ll find a way to keep the meme alive no matter what, as reported in WUWT two days ago,  they found this guy to give a “the warming is wot dun it” quote with their story about the record level of Antarctic sea ice:

ABC_antarctic sea ice

CEO of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Tony Worby, said the warming atmosphere is leading to greater sea ice coverage by changing wind patterns.

“The extent of sea ice is driven by the winds around Antarctica, and we believe that they’re increasing in strength and part of that is around the depletion of ozone,” he said.

Warming doesn’t seem to be a problem when you look at the satellite data for the Antarctic continent, in fact, there is a slight cooling:

rss_ts_channel_tlt_southern polar_land_and_sea_v03_3 Source: Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) – Microwave Sounding Units (MSU)

ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/graphics/tlt/plots/rss_ts_channel_tlt_southern%20polar_land_and_sea_v03_3.png

UAH_antarctic(UAH data added to original story) Source: University of Alabama, Huntsville

There is some warming along the Antarctic peninsula, but that seems to be related to wind and ocean patterns there, along with possible waste heat from the little warm pockets of humanity where the temperatures are measured. The Antarctic peninsula has the highest concentration of people on the continent, mainly because conditions are much less harsh there.

antarcticatemps1957200611That doesn’t stop some people from trying to claim (Steig et al. 2009, using Mannian math) that the entire continent is warming though. Fortunately, there are climate skeptics that have done published science to decisively refute such claims:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/12/01/skeptic-paper-accepted-on-antarctica-rebuts-steig-et-al/

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/29/steig-et-al-falsified/

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leon0112

Is it part of the 97% consensus that man made global warming is causing an increase in Antarctic sea ice?

John V. Wright

How terribly embarrassing to have to admit that you are a “journalist” from ABC Australia…

john karajas

The trouble is John that these English Literature or School of Journalism graduates have been thoroughly inculcated with pseudo-scientific crap and don’t even realise that they are peddling falsehoods to the public. Fortunately, the general public here have come to realise how biased these “journalists” are and filter out the most egregious reporting anyway.

Farmer Gez

Hey Peter is that the same ABC Catalyst program that did the highly irresponsible scare story about Statins in cholesterol control which was widely condemned by the medical specialists. Science trained indeed!

AJ

Peter,
As far as the Catalyst program is concerned, I’m inclined to believe the southern jet stream is moving more poleward and the surface winds are increasing in velocity. Here’s a plot I did a couple of years ago using the 20th Century Reanalysis v2 zonal wind speed data:comment image
If that’s the case, then I’m also inclined to believe that there is increased Ekman drift of sea-ice northward. There were other claims in the program that I’d quibble with, but that’s another comment.

lawrence Cornell

Thanks, but I like it the way it stands. Do you have an answer for me or would you like to play word games ? I have time.

lawrence Cornell

Hmm… 24 hours of silence. That’s very unusual for you Peter. I wonder what shall we make of this “pause” in your activity trend ?
Perhaps there is a legitimate Cause for the Pause.
I have my own theories, you probably have one, I’ll bet others here have theories as well to explain the cause for your pause.
I wonder if it’s natural or Man made ? Does it even exist ? Perhaps you HAVE answered my question and I am in “denial”. Maybe your answer has been diverted to the deep oceans, I suppose there are a number of reasonable explainations…..
Perhaps a new grant could get to the bottom of it …

steveta_uk

The extent of sea ice is driven by the winds around Antarctica, and we believe that they’re increasing in strength and part of that is around the depletion of ozone

Meanwhile, the UN says that Ozone layer showing ‘signs of recovery’

observa

Clearly if you Northerners want more Arctic sea ice you better start depleting ozone up there or recovering it or whatever the UN reckons this month?
Err…sorry Southern folks of course I meant down there?
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=upside+down+map+of+the+earth&rlz=1T4MXGB_enAU564AU564&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=ZKIXVMqdJZPbuQTzpYJQ&ved=0CB4QsAQ&biw=1366&bih=612
and naturally if yoall stand on your heads looking at climate the blood is gunna rush to your heads stoopids.

lawrence Cornell

BINGO. Self contradiction, a sure sign of a liar exceeding his ability to logically maintain the lie. Unfortunately with the current state of education/indoctrination here in the U.S. (and from what I see, the world in general) this obvious contradiction is either lost or ignored by those that should or could expose it properly.

MikeH

Anthony, since Tony Worby is claiming a change in wind patterns, is there any historical data on wind patterns for the continent? Can Tony Worby produce his data to show the wind patterns have changed to facilitate the added accumulation of Ice?

“…warming atmosphere is leading to greater sea ice coverage by changing wind patterns… [wind is] increasing in strength and part of that is around the depletion of ozone”.
So warming atmosphere changes wind patterns and increases the strength of the wind. And on top of that, ozone depletion increases the strength of the wind.
This provides three easily falsified data points, though we would have to choose a point from which to compare:
1. the atmosphere is warming in the antarctic
2. the strength of the wind is increasing and/or changing its patterns
3. ozone is depleted
This post refutes point 1. The recent post on ozone (http://goo.gl/JHTlyc) quotes a paper indicating the hole is closing, which would refute point 3; even though the post indicates that the hole hasn’t changed much over the past 20 years so, it certainly cannot be claimed to be “depleting”. That leaves point 2. Who has data on the strength of the wind in the Antarctic or its patterns? Or are they conveniently unmeasured/unmeasurable like deep-ocean temperatures?

Steve Keohane

I wonder if reading too much of this nonsense causes brain damage, which might explain its persistence.

Churning

“The extent of sea ice is driven by the winds around Antarctica, and we believe that they’re increasing in strength and part of that is around the depletion of ozone,” he said.
The depletion of ozone (the ozone hole) was first discovered during IGY 1957. Sure took a long time to see the effect on the wind!

JimS

The astute warmist will pick this one up to explain as to why the Arctic sea ice has been in recovery mode for the last two years. Warming causes less sea ice coverage, and warming cause more sea ice coverage. It is quite brilliant, really.

Tansy Lee

Warmests can suck and blow at the same time it seems.

Tansy Lee

Warmists

Arno Arrak

JimS — That apparent recovery of Arctic sea ice is interesting because it may point to possible existence of cyclical Arctic temperature variation. The history of Arctic warming began with the twentieth century, prior to which there was nothing there but two thousand years of slow, linear cooling. But after the warming started it was interrupted by a thirty year cold spell in mid-century. Warming returned after 1970 and has kept going ever since, except for the apparent cool spell for the last two years. The original warming was caused by a re-arrangement of the North Atlantic current system that started carrying warm Gulf Stream water into the Arctic Ocean. Greenhouse warming was ruled out by lack of parallel increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide, required by the laws of physics. The mid-century cold spell most likely was due to a temporary return of the previous flow pattern of currents. Greenhouse warming is incapable of performing such maneuvers. If the last two years are a harbinger of another cold spell on the way we could be in for another interruption of warming like the one that happened in mid-twentieth century. It will not be good for Arctic transportation or resource development that is being planned. For more information read my paper in E&E 22(8):1069-1083 (2011). You can probably download it from Judith Curry’s blog.

cnxtim

They employ a simpletons philosophy, “heads I win, tails you lose” – If anyone buys this foolishness, so be it..

jaffa68

If only he’d told Professor Chris Turney, because Chris was clearly operating on the assumption that the non-existent warming was melting ice while we now know that non-existent warming creates ice.
I’m glad that’s clear.

Greg

Yep Prof Christmad Turkey sure got stuffed by the climate, there.

Stephen Skinner

This at least solves the problem of why there are ice ages. The great ice sheets must have been caused by heat!

If one looks at the AAO (ANTRACTIC OSCIILLATION) it shows no significant deviations that would suggest or translate into atmospheric temperature/wind pattern changes. So their argument as usual is falsified through the use of data.

Haddock

Oh, I see!! I see. the recent ice loss in Arctic is due to global cooling, logically!

Gary Pearse

Warming in the Western Arctic Peninsula: it is also a volcanically active area under the ice, on the coast and under the sea.
http://www.utexas.edu/news/2014/06/10/antarctic-glacier-melting/
And hows this for a fit for volcanics and the “red” heat of west antarctica!
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/06/surprise-west-antarctic-volcano-melts-ice/
Scroll down to see the two maps side by side.
And a new discovery in antarctic waters. Its warming the water and supporting a diverse ecology
http://www.iceagenow.com/Underwater_volcanoes_heating_Antarctic_waters.htm

Greg

No, like most peninsula, the climate is caused by the surrounding seas.
Froehm storms on the leeward side of a coastal mountain range cause warming of the air, the heat actually originating in the surrounding sea.
That is why the Antarctic peninsula is the excpetion on the continent.

Greg

summary of heat transfer
moist air of ocean rises up mountains , adiabatic cooling forms cloud, dumps rain. Condensation of cloud formation realses latent heat, reheating the cooler air. Air decends leeward side, adiabatic cooling warms the air but since it was also warmed by the latent heat it ends up considerably warmer that when it left the ocean.
The peninsula as a whole ends up warmer than the continent and warmer than the surround oceans which are the source of the heat.
Stronger winds, more warming. Stronger circum polar winds: increased temperature anomaly on the peninsula. This does not even require the surrounding oceans to warm. In fact they will likely be cooled by increased evaporation.

feliksch

Foehn storms?

BallBounces

We need to get control of global warming before we all freeze to death.

Leo Smith

As someone said to Michael Mann ‘if you keep falling on your feet like this, it will be permanent brain damage’

Expat

I guarantee that if anywhere that has media gets a harsh winter, someone, somewhere will claim Global warming is causing a possible new ice age.

phlogiston

The AGW attempts to tie all their lies together is starting to resemble Basil Fawlty of Fawlty Towers in full swing.
Just the other day we congratulated ourselves that the Montreal protocol banning CFCs has now “repaired” the ozone hole.
But today, down under – hey presto! – the hole is back, just in time to explain why expanding Antarctic ice is due to warming.
Warming would decrease, not increase, the catabatic winds blowing off Antarctica since it is the coldness of Antarctica that gives energy to those offshore winds.
Its Occam’s razor again folks.
If it feels colder, it is colder.
The whole Antarctic region and the seas around it are cooling. The global climate will follow.
Just live with it. If you cant – get help.

Mike

I have said this many times before: In the world of acedemia, you are a nobody if you can’t write and publish a paper and get a research grant. These people have to get their 5 minutes of fame unless you get published in some journal for your groundbreaking research. This guy, Tony Worby, now is the headline of the day on the Google new climate change page, that’s all. Yawn.

Mike

and I can’t seem to spell Academia correctly.

Eustace Cranch

That’s OK, neither can most of them.

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7

Have you tried “acanemia” ?

rogerknights

Just think of Macademia Nuts.

Academia Nuts
That is hilarious.

Upon further examination(always admit when data shows otherwise) I did find that the AAO has been trending more positive post 1940 which would suggest perhaps stronger winds in the Antarctic but definitely not warming of Antarctica.
I will send a graph showing this. The question is this ,is the more positive trend in the AAO leading to more Antarctic Sea Ice and if so why?

That did not work for some reason.

Just have to add the .htm on the end of the url

phlogiston

At the other end – it looks like we must now be at or very close to minimum Arctic sea ice extent.
This year’s minimum is higher than 2013.
Too early to talk of recovery I guess?
We could do with some reliable numbers on multi-year ice.

Go Home

How do they know that expanding Antarctic sea ice is not causing a change in the wind patterns?

ren

Where is the warming of the atmosphere? Is this a joke?
http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/tmp/to-s-de-e-9880100663de20140914.gif

Greg

CEO of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC, Tony Worby, said the warming atmosphere is leading to greater sea ice coverage by changing wind patterns.
“The extent of sea ice is driven by the winds around Antarctica, and we believe that they’re increasing in strength and part of that is around the depletion of ozone,” he said.

May god, listen to breeze coming off all that handwaving.
They “believe” the winds are increasing in speed. They don’t have any data to show, they don’t even come out the ‘model simulations show that’ crap. How much stronger? Dunno. Over what period of time? Err, dunno. In what directions? err….. They just “believe” . Um mighty wind spirit , he big strong. Heap big strong.
And what does “around” mean precisely? Are they trying to suggest, wind is causing ozone , ozone causing winds, ozone is geographically close to winds……
This is actually saying nothing at all that anyone can challenge or verify because it does not mean anything. It just like : winds blah, blah, ozone depletion blah erm , around. Yes.

Greg

Oddly I can’t find any mention of a Tony Worby on thier web site and the lastest annual report says the CEO is Tony Press.
Whoever Worby is he should stop waffling climate about which he can’t not construct a meaningful sentence, and stick to telling us how much profit his little business venture made last year, and how much public money it attracted.

Taphonomic

They need to update their website. Worby took over in July:
http://www.acecrc.org.au/access/cms/news/?id=166&full=true

Unmentionable

When the Arctic warms in Spring do the winds get stronger or do they become less stormy with more calm days? But we are expected to believe that undetectable imaginary atmospheric warming will lead to stronger circum-Antarctic winds in the middle of winter as the attack of the ever naughty CO2 molecule which makes record sea ice just to further confuse the terminally desperate climate-doomer dummkopf brigade.

Carbon500

Any decent meteorology book will reveal the true historical situation re. Antarctic pack ice.
‘Climate Change’ by William James Burroughs (2001 ed., Cambridge University Press – see p55)) tells us that ‘the annual cycle has an amplitude of some fifteen million square kilometres, from a maximum extent of about eighteen million square kilometres to around three million kilometres in late summer. From year to year the extent of the ice cover can fluctuate by several million square kilometres.’
So why the fuss about the current area of twenty million square kilometres given fluctuations of the magnitude described?

Mike Smith

But you gotta separate correlation and causation.
Maybe all of that Antarctic ice is causing global warming?
🙂

Tim Obrien

They have their fantasy view of the world an they’re gonna stick to it.

Resourceguy

Exactly! They have perfected the technology of synthetic reality for themselves.

Idiot wind! 😉

Tom Moran

Lol!

Lee

What everyone is missing is that it is the ANTI arctic. So, if warming causes loss of sea ice in the Arctic, then warming causes more ice in the ANTI arctic. Simple really.

Unmentionable

Thank you for posting on this Andrew. When I first saw the report yesterday I didn’t know who I was more disgusted in, the excuse makers pretending to be researchers, or the fawning excuse purveyors pretending to be interviewers who encouraged and enabled it at tax payers expense. I settled on being slightly more disgusted with the ABC and not just because of the abysmal hack anti-journalism that was going on, but also at the disgraceful producer in the studio and the edit down and the airing those people gave it. It’s unfortunately just another miserable example of the dysfunctional anti-think and shabby ethics which they don’t even try to disguise any more.
Which is fine, the more blatant their behavior the sooner a large portion of the community are going to demand it be cut off from all public funding and be broken up for scrap.

John F. Hultquist

Andrew?

mikeishere

Last year Worby said changes in ice caused changes in ocean currents. Maybe it’s a cyclical thing having nothing to do with temperature at all: Wind patterns control ice formation which controls ocean currents which control wind patterns that ….. rinse, repeat…

old44

If the temperatures in the Antarctic keep rising we will need icebreakers in Bass Straight soon.

Unmentionable

Visions of a Boxing Day’s Sydney to Hobart Iditarod with dingos instead of yachts.

Clay Marley

OK, so we have record levels of ice, but it isn’t caused by warming temperatures.
And it isn’t caused by cooling temperatures.
And it isn’t caused by changes in the Ozone hole.
So what is causing the increase in ice?
I could imaging possibly changes in ocean currents. Or perhaps we should look up, at Mr. Sun?

Michael D

So if the Antarctic ice expands, that’s due to global warming. And if the Arctic Ice depletes, that’s also due to Global Warming. Heads I win, tails you lose ??

I am reaching the point of skimming the content and savouring the desperation.
Just imagine, enough handwaving like this and the winds MIGHT reach hurricane force.
The flood gates are open but the cause cannot be saved, all those years of lies and public relations spin, selfhatred and fear, all busting to get loose.
Conceptually it will be like being down stream of a sewage retention dam after the dam breach.
Climatology, will it be a future art course or a lesson in pseudo-science?
John Daly’s direct comments to the Team members still stand,such pathetic little popinjays impersonating scientists.

Where is the population density map of antarctica?

observa

Think penguins and then think of Australian population density along with Greenland, Iceland, Mongolia and Western Sahara and you’ll be just fine.
http://www.photius.com/rankings/geography/population_density_persons_per_sq_km_2012_1.html

Jbird

Couldn’t it be argued even if this nonsense was true, that an expansion of the ice would mean an increase in albedo? In which case, things will begin cooling through natural processes. Why weren’t the models smart enough to predict this?

Jbird

Seems to me that these guys have been shooting themselves in the foot for some time now.

Black Pearl

John V. Wright September 15, 2014 at 8:31 am
How terribly embarrassing to have to admit that you are a “journalist” from ABC Australia…
****
Its the same of the BBC
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2755858/BBC-s-Nick-Robinson-denounced-nationalists-liar-battle-votes-referendum-gets-nastier.html
Maybe will will anti climate change protests ?

urederra
September 13, 2014 at 1:34 am
Exactly, It is not a hole, it is a concentration gradient. Calling it a hole gives the impression that there is no ozone in the blue spot seen in the video above. But that is not true, The ozone concentration in the blue zone it is not zero, it is just lower than in the green zone. Sadly, there is no info in the video about what the colors mean. It might be around 140 dobson units for the blue zone and 250 for the green, but I am just guessing.
I learned this from the ozone hole post from a couple of days ago.
There is no ozone “hole”
It’s an area of lower ozone levels.

urederra
September 13, 2014 at 1:34 am
Exactly, It is not a hole, it is a concentration gradient. Calling it a hole gives the impression that there is no ozone in the blue spot seen in the video above. But that is not true, The ozone concentration in the blue zone it is not zero, it is just lower than in the green zone. Sadly, there is no info in the video about what the colors mean. It might be around 140 dobson units for the blue zone and 250 for the green, but I am just guessing.

This bit was a quote.

Over TWICE the area of the Continental USA…and the “ice is disappearing”.
How can we deal with people who live in such a FANTASY LAND???

jap

These liars will get found out eventually. It makes me so angry . how stupid do they think the general public are

Now all you norty skeptics know for sure that the polar bear was really threatened by global warming. It got too cold for them in Antarctica, so they all died out. There’s not a single one of them left there now. A tragedy.
Hang your heads in shame.
Pointman

William McClenney

“Mannian math”??
Better stated as MatheMannics.

MarkW

“The extent of sea ice is driven by the winds around Antarctica, and we believe that they’re increasing in strength and part of that is around the depletion of ozone,” he said.
Didn’t they just finish telling us that ozone is recovering?

AnonyMoose

What mechanism does he think is causing the changing of molecules high in the atmosphere, in the ozone area, to affect sea-level winds? Does he think there’s an ozone butterfly batting its 2000-mile-wide wings?

I’m so sad that I live in a country where climate change/global warming is still debated in public as well as our nation’s governing body. It’s wholly pathetic. Droughts, floods, ever increasing super storms, wild fluctuations in weather, but no, no, one area got colder one year and suddenly the Earth is Cooling! Right. Unfortunately we have to pay for the mistakes and the denial of these frustratingly ignorant people. Yikes.

theboltonskydiaries,
This is more than just ‘one area got colder’:
http://sunshinehours.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/antarctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2014_day_255_1981-2010.png?w=1024&h=682
That is an entire continent — and it deconstructs the endless predictions that polar ice would disappear [until it didn’t]. So now it’s morphed into ‘Arctic’ ice. But that’s not disappearing, either.
Finally, your Belief that “Droughts, floods, ever increasing super storms, wild fluctuations in weather…” are all increasing is also based on misinformation. In reality [there’s that pesky ‘reality’ again], extreme weather events have been decreasing for many years.
In fact, none of the scary climate alarmist predictions have happened. They were all wrong. So why would you keep believing what they tell you? They’re never right. Ever.

Bill 2

You claim extreme weather events are decreasing but you link to a plot of weather-related deaths. Surely you realize this is a reflection of weather forecasting improving greatly over the past 100 years. Do you have a link to a trend in extreme weather events?