Eric Worrall writes:
Professor Bob Carter, writing in today’s edition of The Australian, a major Aussie daily newspaper, warns that the world is unprepared for imminent global cooling, because of the obsession of policy makers with global warming.
According to Bob Carter;
Heading for ice age
“GRAHAM Lloyd has reported on the Bureau of Meteorology’s capitulation to scientific criticism that it should publish an accounting of the corrections it makes to temperature records (“Bureau warms to transparency over adjusted records”, 12/9). Corrections which, furthermore, act to reinforce the bureau’s dedication to a prognosis of future dangerous global warming, by turning cooling temperature trends into warming ones — a practice also known to occur in the US, Britain and New Zealand.
Meanwhile, we have a report by Sue Neales that the size of our grain harvest remains in doubt following severe frosts in southern NSW killing large areas of early wheat crops and also damaging wheat and canola crops in South Australia and Victoria (“Trifecta of calamities to deplete. crop harvest”, 12/9)
Is it unreasonable to be surprised that none of your writers, much less the government, has noticed that leading solar astrophysicists, such as Habibullo Abdussamatov from Pulkovo Observatory in St Petersburg, have for years been commenting on the declining activity of the sun?
These scientists are projecting a significant cooling over the next three decades, and perhaps even the occurrence of another little ice age.
Obsessed as they are with a gentle global warming trend that stopped late last century, should the expected solar cooling eventuate, policy makers will rue the day they failed to heed the advice of independent scientists on climate change issues.”
Professor Abdussamatov, cited by Professor Carter in his letter, is head of the Space Research section of the Russian Academy of Science.
In 2006, Professor Abdussamatov issued a press release, warning that the world should prepare for imminent global cooling. Abdussamatov predicted that the global cooling would start in 2012 – 2015, and would likely peak around 2055.
http://en.ria.ru/russia/20060825/53143686.html
This predicted global cooling, if it occurs, will mean that polar vortex winters and cold related crop failures, such as the recent frost catastrophe which destroyed a significant fraction of Australia’s wheat crop, in the state of New South Wales, will become a normal part of life, and will most likely become a lot worse.
WUWT readers might recall a shameful incident last year, in which Professor Carter was unceremoniously dumped from his academic post. In my opinion, the removal of Professor Carter was part of an ongoing purge of Australian academics who hold unfashionable views on climate change.
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Source of the graph: Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2001/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2001/trend
Calling that “attribution” is a bit strong. If Carter wanted to say “global cooling is causing severe frosts”, I think he would have just said so. It *might* be the start of Abdussamatov’s cooling trend, or it could just be weather.
The Green Parties proved to be viable, the rising stars of European Politics winning elections and ruling outright in some countries. They won Senate seats in Australia and became balance of power holders, They won Lower House seats then joined in coalition with the Socialists, won Government and dictated policy on many things other than the environment.
What if some incredibly clever strategist embedded CO2 warming deliberately to bring this new political threat down knowing all along that Solar output waxes and wanes ………it’s not inconceivable.
Beats me why so many people think we need an ice age to stuff up the global food supply.
Look for temperatures this upcoming week to be below normal, flirting with record lows in the Northeast US, with some of that cool air spreading to NYC.
The atmosphere must be configuring for the “Gore Effect” and the climate change/global warming rally in New York City next weekend.
Temps may get a bump up closer to normal next Sunday, ahead of the next cold front but there isn’t great skill for exact timing of individual cold fronts 7 days away.
You keep Gore in America – last time he visited Australia, my power bill doubled 🙂
Awww, C’mon! Can’t you keep him for just a LITTLE while?? I’m not sayin’ you should let him camp in Kakadu, but if you stuck him out in the Great Sandy Desert or Undarra for a few weeks, you could probably grow orchids after you got tired of him and kicked him out…
Just sayin’…
Polar vortex (17 km) over North America. Forecast on 18/09/2014.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/09/18/1200Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-98.75,29.09,553
Steve Case: Unfortunately Hadcruit 2, 3, 4 GISS ect its all ADJUSTED data. Just like BOM ect. Not reliable there probably has been NO warming or cooling whatsoever (statistically) since 1880 (see CET). Refer to Goddards sire adjusted v unadjusted temp data worlwide its all been FIXED to suit the AGW mantra. BTW a list of organizations that booted Carter out due to AGW presuures (ie Cook University, NSW Uni.Harper) ect should be made for posterity and future legal cases against these organizations (re promotion of very costly fraud)
Murdoch?
Peter, my friend, you sound like a crazy person when you talk like this.
“The sky is falling, the sky is falling!” No wait…”The sky is rising the sky is rising!”: Chicken Little “o’s” next dire warning that only a wonder tax can fix…
Is it just me, or did petey grace show up immediately after Jennifer Marohasy ripped the Fauxcade from off of the BOM temperature records?
There’s been a lot of cutbacks to the Australian climate science budget. Perhaps Peter is someone who suddenly has a lot of free time on his hands?
Well I asked him about the laughing-gas / ghg study but haven’t heard anything back yet 😛
Reblogged this on gottadobetterthanthis and commented:
Considering history, and eyeballing the trends, one should reasonably conclude we recently peaked on the upswing, and now we will trend down in temperature for a few decades. While I think it is Pollyanna to suppose a full glacial advance isn’t coming, there is no telling when. I’ve thought for years that the next full glaciation will start soon, but soon here means decades to centuries. We just don’t know enough to predict. Regardless, the fact is that the world will be a much worse place if it cools as much as some of the experts suggest. Certainly, these folks are in the minority, but simply looking at the data shows that cooling is likely. A little cooling will hurt, a little more will be bad, as in millions, even billions of us suffering from starvation and other privations.
It seems to me that instead of billions spent on global warming abatement, we could sensibly prepare for significant alterations in climate and be much better prepared. We need to prepare for dealing with cooling that causes crop failures, and we need to be ready for more drought (a feature of cooling periods), and we need to be ready for more rain and warming too, since the kinds of things that make sense for disruptions work no matter what causes the disruption. Heck, that rock is out there. If it falls on us, such preparations will help deal with the havoc it causes.
Long term warming periods used to be called optimums. We need to admit and internalize the fact that cold kills; warmer is better.
Preparing for cooling makes sense. If it stays warm, we should stay appreciative of the fact.
You’re right, I forgot – a good ski season and heavy frosts ruining crops are evidence for
global warmingclimate changeglobal climate disruptionclimate weirding.Mike and Eliza– it just COULD NOT BE a coincidence that the most accurate and(? untampered-with) measuring stations are all, ALL down with the approach of a cold spell so severe that it dropped that day’s record low in Sheridan, WY by 12F…… nah
Sorry…
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/crn/observations.htm?group=crn
No farmer I know buys into AGW scares. They use their own wits combined with some pretty good state agriculture meteorologist and field rep advice, to follow natural trends. It’s the knee of the trends and unforeseen bed weather that are hard to predict and hard on crops, ergo crop insurance.
Fields across this area have been used for a number of different crops depending on the trend we are in. Only bankrupt farmers would plant based on AGW theory. We had crown freeze (which happens below ground) around here on dry land winter wheat this past winter due to an extensive dry cold snap. It had nothing to do with a warmer winter. It froze the balls off brass monkeys. We could have used some snow. In fact, if you get a good snow cover, crown damage is reduced. But we had just the plain old dry cold air kind of freeze. A warmer winter would have been nice but as for early or late fall planting there are pros and cons, none having to do with weather.
If you’ve never planted, best not open thy mouth and prove you have never planted. Here is a pretty good video on growing winter wheat.
http://wn.com/winter_wheat
Unforeseen “bed” weather can really put a damper on things. So can bad weather. LOL!
Pamela, I was more concerned about the ‘knee of the trends’ and missed the bed incident. We don’t have that this side of the pond…. Though I can sort of guess what it means.
Two nations divided by a common language again 🙂
Of course, ‘bed’ weather is easy to get, being the kind of day you look out, and just snuggle back under the covers…
I seem to have inadvertently penned a new phrase for weather. So what would weather be like to be called “bed” weather? Sleet would be one choice. I call that one God Spit. Having been raised around a tobacco chewing grandpa, he would approve.
The operation that farms North and East of my house said they had lost 75% of their winter wheat last winter, they plowed under 285 acres out of 380 and replanted with soy. The soy looks good to my lay eyes as does the corn. Weather around here is very fall like and a wet fall at that, so actually harvesting the soy could be challenging on wet fields, they usually bring in the corn after the ground is frozen.
Here is the reality of the situation. Professor Carter’s is a loose cannon that must be denigrated and demonized. The conventional wisdom is that the Earth can handle either warming or cooling simply by skillfully managing key variables identified by the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory. Behind the scenes, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) developed this carved-in-stone theory. Hypothetically, mankind can literally select Earth’s temperature by simply increasing or decreasing the “control knob” of CO2.
Carter apparently does not understand that sensitive matters like this cannot be left in the hands of the uninformed masses. It takes a sophisticated public and scientific front to manage planetary climate. What is required is skillful manipulation of the price of CO2 by a technological elite pulling the right strings at the right time. The right public investments and disinvestments must trigger the right private investments and disinvestments at the right time. At the end of the day nobody that counts gets seriously hurt. Those who count a lot enjoy generous benefits.
Put in simple terms, if Earth begins to cool — and it probably has — all we have to do is increase atmospheric man-made CO2. In other words, we reverse our current strategy. We make burning fossil fuels cheaper and easier. A few political careers will be beaten and bruised. A few fortunes and a few academic egos will need a hidden safety net to catch them as they appear to have to walk the plank. Relatively speaking, it is a piece of cake.
No problem, as long as Carter and his ilk don’t get carried away and turn the boat over. The key is controlling the public information campaign. If word gets out that CO2 is actually not a significant climate factor, the Self-Destruct Device is triggered. All bets are off.
I like.
The problem of warming or cooling can be resolved by adjusting the data according to the needed trend.
W.M.O.
All hail Maurice.
It is not just when you plant, it is also what you plant. Seeds have been developed to be frost, heat, drought, pest etc resistant, but if all the attention is paid to heat resisitance, development and planting of the appropriate seeds can be misdirected. Manipulation of the gentic makeup of our foodstuffs has been the essence and backbone of both farming and ranching for 20,000 years. Recently it has become more specific and faster but gentic manipulation is as old as civilization.
The Antarctic sea ice area today is 16.05 Mkm^2 – continuing a 35 year-long trend since 1978 of steadily increasing ice between latitudes 68 south and latitude 59 south.
The Antarctic sea ice anomaly now is +1.0 million square kilometers above “average for this date, well over +2 standard deviations from the established normals – which continues a 3-years of very high, positive Antarctic sea ice anomalies. (At this rate, the Straits of Magellan and the seas around Cape Horn will be blocked with sea ice within 8-12 years for 1-2 months of every year …)
Now, all of this “extra” sea ice down south is at latitudes where substantial solar energy is going to increasingly be reflected back into space. In the Arctic, the sea ice extents were decreasing, but remained within two std deviations the whole time – basically meaning that, until 2006-2007, the Arctic sea ice was still within natural deviations ferom the normal. Post 2007-2007 of course, they declined (2007 and 2012 were very low), but have returned now (2014) to within their natural range. But this little bit of missing Arctic sea cie occurs up between latitudes 75, 78, and 79 north. Even at noon, the highest the sun gets at minimum extents in September is 8 – 11 degrees above the horizon. Then again, the highest the sun gets over almost all of the sea ice during its time of maximum arctic sea ice extents in late March is only 12 – 14 degrees above the horizon.
But Arctic sea ice doesn’t reflect very sunlight 7 months of the year: Only in the short 3 months of Mid-May through mid-August does the Arctic sea ice receive significantly more sunlight than the Antarctic sea ice, but – during those months, the top-of-atmosphere energy received on earth is at its yearly minimums, getting 80 watts/meter^2 LESS than when the Antarctic sea ice is approaching its minimum in January and February each year. The rest of the time, the Antarctic sea ice controls energy reflected – and the Antarctic is growing. Quickly.
Peter, stem damage due to frost on winter wheat is no big deal. Happens all the time. Crown damage below the soil, is a big deal, and happens only with unusually long deep cold freezing temps. Snow protects crowns by insulating heat loss from soils. The soils can be wet or dry. Crown damage can still happen. It all depends on how cold and for how long, and whether or not there is snow on the ground. It matters little when winter wheat was planted.
” The key is controlling the public information campaign. If word gets out that CO2 is actually not a significant climate factor, the Self-Destruct Device is triggered. All bets are off.
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Every one of us, if healthy, non-smoking, has blood levels of O2 and CO2, but the numbers, known to all docs/nurses/resp.techs. as well as they know their kids’ birthdays, are in pressures. So, our arterial blood gas (ABG) #s are pO2=95, pCO2= 40. Noone translates these, but it’s easy.
Round #s–O2 is 21% of atm, pressure is ~ 750mm [yes, std. is 760, but that’s @ur momisugly sealevel, max.]
Soo, O2 pressure is 150 mm. Hg. Ergo the highest blood O2 level, in the lungs, a pO2 of 100 is 2/3 atm.
ie 14%. And the arterial pCO2 of 40 mm. Hg becomes 40^14/100 or 5.6%–56 THOUSAND ppm.
Venous pCO2 is 45 mm. Hg or 63 THOUSAND ppm. That’s at rest. It rises with exercise. Emphysemics at rest are much higher. Is anyone out in the sun undergoing ‘runaway heating?’
It’s not just ‘not significant’–try irrelevant.
Lets take one year at a time . We are not even preparing for this upcoming winter with this constant talk of global warming only
It would appear that whenever there is an extra warm SST or a major hot spot in the North Pacific Ocean SST (20-65 N), south of Alaska, during the summer and fall, and early winter, North America including United States experiences below normal or cold winters. The extra warm SST in the North Pacific happened in 2000, 2003, 2006, 2010, 2012 and 2013. There were below normal colder winters in 2001,2004,2007,2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2014. It looks like we may again have a cold upcoming winter during the 2014/2015 winter as this part of the North Pacific Ocean SST is at a warm temperature anomaly of 0.84 C similar to the 2010 anomaly of 0.84C and 2006 anomaly of 0.83 C. It may be that the extra warm air over this region gets into the high Arctic causing jet stream blocking events, SSW events, more frequent negative AO and Arctic vortex distortions, thus bringing wave after wave of cold air further south than normal. This is what happened last winter.
We are not even preparing for this upcoming winter with this constant talk of global warming only….
Herkimer,
Some of us are preparing for this upcoming winter!
I have 4 full cords of dry fir firewood, a half cord of dry white oak, a high efficiency wood stove with a blower on the ‘daylight basement’ level of the house, a very well insulated house, and a ‘back up’ gasoline powered electrical generator.
That’s how I prepare for most winters though…. Instead of paying gymnasium fees, I buy very large loads of logs and pieces and cut/split them up myself. It provides many vigorous work outs, keeps me from getting fat, and provides that incomparable wood stove heat throughout a long winter.
Four winters ago, the local electrical grid went down in an ice and windstorm, right at Christmas. It was down for 4 days. I cooked Christmas dinner (a 14lb turkey, mash potatoes, fresh cooked cranberries, acorn squash, etc) on top of the wood stove and finished the turkey on a Weber grill fed with hardwood pieces. I didn’t start the ‘generator’ at all, just lit a bunch of candles and a kerosene mantle lamp. According to the guests that braved the weather and treacherous roads to attend, it was one of their best Christmas dinners ever!
Be prepared…. and may all your Christmases be white!
Mac
Whwn is a more severe frost LESS than -2C?
Less frost means -1C [IMO]. A more severe frost would be -3C or -4C . No???
Annual Contiguous US temperatures have been declining at (-0.36 F/DECADE) since 1998. This is happening in 7 of the 9 climate regions in United States. Only the Northeast and the West both of which receive the moderating effect of the oceans, had slight warming trend of 0.2 and 0.3 F/decade respectively. Theses 16 year annual temperature declines illustrate that despite any summer warming , the cooling during winter , spring and fall offsets any summer warming resulting in the annual temperature declines
These temperature anomaly trend declines are similar to past temperature declines in United States during 1895-1920 and again 1953 -1979. A similar cool period seems to have started during the current decade .
It is clear that there is no global warming in United States or the globe . Why are we even talking about CO2 levels and global warming? If anything we should be concerned about the impact of falling temperatures in United State.
This cooler weather means a potential for more winter crop damage, winter snow and ice storms, more snow, major floods from spring snow melts and significant thunderstorms, wind storms, bigger tornadoes and power outages as the cold and warm fronts meet more often and at bigger amplitudes. The net result is many areas are unprepared for the current and more importantly the upcoming colder weather in terms of emergency planning, snow clearing infrastructure , heating fuel stocks( propane and natural gas) , local winter budgets , transportation needs , need to switch to more winter hardy crops , power outage repair capability and impact on local economy . It is time to get off this global warming only focus and concentrate on the real problems that confront us today. US spent $55 billion dollars to cope with global cooling this past winter alone. The media recently reported that the US overall economy shrank 1% in the 2014 January to March quarter. The contraction in growth was blamed on a number of factors including an unusually harsh winter
Just look how winter temperatures are declining in United States since 1998
WINTER (-1.79 F/DECADE) – DECLINING
DEC -1.22 F/decade (declining)
JAN -1.52 F/ decade (declining)
FEB -2.77 F/decade(declining)
Has anybody been watching the nightly minimum temperature in the deserts? If CO2 was going to have ANY affect like what the warmists claim it would be raising the nightly lows in the desert!
Make sure to keep an eye on the humidity as well. Near by towns and agriculture can increase total humidity enough to make a difference in night time temps.
Here is what one farmer said in response to a previous post on different track about the return to cooler weather.
1. @ur momisugly Herkimer 8.52
Re: your observations that the last 10 years have seen a return to what was happening during the 70′s
As a farmer since the early 70′s. I could not agree more , as the temperatures climbed upwards in the 80′ and 90′s our crops changed to more and more warm climate tolerate ones., today those same growers are seeing winter damage increasing, certain crops needing to be harvested earlier (too early) due to threatening early colder Fall temperatures and now the mad scramble back to winter hardy crops ( most of which are occurring in the soft fruit sector such as grapes, cherries etc..Thanks for your insight.
IDLE SPECULATIONS. Let’s make a 100-year forecast so we don;t have to worry about the outcome.