Prof Bob Carter warns of unpreparedness for Global Cooling

HadCRUT_cooling from 2001

Eric Worrall writes:

Professor Bob Carter, writing in today’s edition of The Australian, a major Aussie daily newspaper, warns that the world is unprepared for imminent global cooling, because of the obsession of policy makers with global warming.

According to Bob Carter;

Heading for ice age

“GRAHAM Lloyd has reported on the Bureau of Meteorology’s capitulation to scientific criticism that it should publish an accounting of the corrections it makes to temperature records (“Bureau warms to transparency over adjusted records”, 12/9). Corrections which, furthermore, act to reinforce the bureau’s dedication to a prognosis of future dangerous global warming, by turning cooling temperature trends into warming ones — a practice also known to occur in the US, Britain and New Zealand.

Meanwhile, we have a report by Sue Neales that the size of our grain harvest remains in doubt following severe frosts in southern NSW killing large areas of early wheat crops and also damaging wheat and canola crops in South Australia and Victoria (“Trifecta of calamities to deplete. crop harvest”, 12/9)

Is it unreasonable to be surprised that none of your writers, much less the government, has noticed that leading solar astrophysicists, such as Habibullo Abdussamatov from Pulkovo Observatory in St Petersburg, have for years been commenting on the declining activity of the sun?

These scientists are projecting a significant cooling over the next three decades, and perhaps even the occurrence of another little ice age.

Obsessed as they are with a gentle global warming trend that stopped late last century, should the expected solar cooling eventuate, policy makers will rue the day they failed to heed the advice of independent scientists on climate change issues.”

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/letters/poor-project-management-the-cause-of-subs-debacle/story-fn558imw-1227056963829

Professor Abdussamatov, cited by Professor Carter in his letter, is head of the Space Research section of the Russian Academy of Science.

In 2006, Professor Abdussamatov issued a press release, warning that the world should prepare for imminent global cooling. Abdussamatov predicted that the global cooling would start in 2012 – 2015, and would likely peak around 2055.

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20060825/53143686.html

This predicted global cooling, if it occurs, will mean that polar vortex winters and cold related crop failures, such as the recent frost catastrophe which destroyed a significant fraction of Australia’s wheat crop, in the state of New South Wales, will become a normal part of life, and will most likely become a lot worse.

WUWT readers might recall a shameful incident last year, in which Professor Carter was unceremoniously dumped from his academic post. In my opinion, the removal of Professor Carter was part of an ongoing purge of Australian academics who hold unfashionable views on climate change.

==================================

Source of the graph: Source: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2001/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2001/trend

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paullm

A quick look at a global temp over time chart makes it anxiously alarming that our current Holocene Epoch may well be overdue to cool into the next, cyclically expected 100,000 year global glacial period. Humans have survived the previous two glacial periods, however, they were not spoiled by great power generation systems that may well fail to continue to provide us with the power we now depend upon for nearly everything we need and want. All the best to us in our future adventures.

Nothing is what it seems, Berger and Loutre concluded based on Milankovic cyclle calculations that the next real ice age is still 50,000 years away.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/297/5585/1287

mountainape5

The peak yes, but it could have started already.

Ian Schumacher

Looking at the periodic nature of ice-ages, it’s hard to believe that ‘suddenly’ we will have an interglacial of unprecedented length (by almost an order of magnitude). Possible, but it just seems really unlikely. This interglacial period is already very long.
I have yet to see a good explanation for the 100,000 year cycle, the ‘stage 5’ problem, the ‘weak forcing’ problem, or the change from 41kyr to 100kyr cycle based purely on Milankovitch cycles. When we can adequately explain that past, then maybe I’ll believe we can predict the future.
It’s my conjecture that Milankovitch cycles perturb a naturally oscillating system and over time they fell into synchronization (like the ‘sympathetic’ pendulums experiment). This then allows a mechanism to explain all of the above.

Gail Combs

Loutre and Berger’s 2003 astronomical model, was soundly trounced by Lisiecki and Raymo’s 2005 rebuttal, an exhaustive analysis of 57 globally distributed deep ocean cores reaching back about 5 million years. The widely referenced LR05 stack in the literature since suggests that this is a landmark paper in paleoclimate science.
Since then there has been nothing in the literature to suggest the Holocene will go long. Even if the Holocene was a double cycle like MIS 11 it would still be cold and nasty with abrupt changes since current insolation value (June 21 insolation minimum at 65N) = 479W m−2 is at the ‘Tipping point’
MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2,
MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2,
MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2,
MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2,
MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2
The values are from a fall 2012 paper: Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?
NOAA’s calculations show how close to the Solar Insolation during the depths of the Wisconsin Ice Age the earth now is:
NOW (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
Depth of the last ice age – around 463 Wm−2 (Δ 13 Wm-2)
Holocene peak insolation: 522.5 Wm-2 (Δ 46.5 Wm-2)
So no matter who you use as a reference, the earth is in the ball park Solar Insolation for glacial inception and we are about 200 years over due thanks to the Grand Solar Maximum now ending.
(H/T to William McClenney and Ilya G. Usoskin)

Ian Schumacher

Gail Combs,
Thanks for that info. That was my understanding, too. Quite possibly it is our CO2 emissions that is helping prolong this interglacial. That was suggested by Hansen some time ago, but yet he failed to connect the dots fully and go – “Oh, in that case, maybe CO2 is a good thing”.
http://www.climatedata.info/Forcing/Forcing/milankovitchcycles_files/BIGw02-milankovitch-and-temperature.gif.gif
I’m not a doom sayer and I’m not worried about an ice-age (for me personally anyway), but I don’t understand this trend of pretending it can no longer happen for tens of thousands of years. I’ll trust historical data with a strong periodic signal (and the likely continuation of that pattern) over theories predicting sudden unprecedented behavior any day. The sun ‘might’ not rise tomorrow, but it probably will.

Kenneth Simmons

A glacial ice age may be thousands of years away, but a little ice age is quite plausible .

A reader of mine trained a program to reproduce the past Milankovitch cycles and the forecasts seem to agree that the next full-fledged ice age will be around 60,000 AD.
http://motls.blogspot.com/2012/03/next-peak-of-ice-age-year-60000-ad.html?m=1

tty

Over the last 2.5 million years of glaciation and about 50 glacial cycles no interglacial has been even nearly that long. It would mean that the present interglacial is unique and unprecedented. This might of course be true but it will take more than a computer model to convince me.

johnmarshall

We live in an Interglacial Period and they vary between warm and cool periods, not in any way connected with CO2. MWP/LIA come to mind.

@johnmarsall, agreed even a new little ice age (which is not related to Milankovic cycles) would be very disruptive.

commieBob

tty says:
September 14, 2014 at 12:39 am
… it will take more than a computer model to convince me.

Computer models are reliable for many things. Planetary motion is one of those things.

Ian W

@commiebob Do those reliable computer models predict the Bond Events, theDansgaard–Oeschger events, or the Litte Ice Age? Use them to tell us when the next cold period will be then add a reply here as its so simple – you could save millions of lives!

RockyRoad

But ice is the base line; short warm periods (like the Holocene) is the exception, the anomaly. As cyclical as the past 50 have been, I doubt the next won’t occur for 60,000 years.
That would be a far-fetched anomaly in my estimation.

joselori

commieBob, said “Computer models are reliable for many things. Planetary motion is one of those things.”
Simply not true, computer models have nothing to do with predicting planetary motion; this motion is governed by basic Newtonian physics and is determined by solving the applicable equations.

Ian Schumacher

tty,
Exactly. To suddenly believe this interglacial will last an order of magnitude longer than any other interglacial in recored history …. hmmmm.

Long interglacials lasting ~30,000 years (as during MIS 11) are possible, although one lasting three precessional cycles might be “unprecedented”.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CCUQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.clim-past.net%2F8%2F1473%2F2012%2Fcp-8-1473-2012.pdf&ei=aG8WVOTtC4q5iwLMkoGIBQ&usg=AFQjCNFyq06SQ75taO9OkstmrOjcOskbkw&sig2=q0I4LZMc6gISVAYDM7h0DQ&bvm=bv.75097201,d.cGE
From Climate of the Past, 2012
Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?
P. C. Tzedakis1, E.W. Wolff2, L. C. Skinner3, V. Brovkin4, D. A. Hodell3, J. F. McManus5, and D. Raynaud6
3.2 Interglacial duration
Estimates of interglacial length (Fig. 8, Table 1) suggest two main groups with mean duration of 13±3 kyr and 28±2 kyr, respectively. More specifically, interglacials of the first group (MIS 5e, 7e, 9e, 15a and 19c) are characterized by early peaks in temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations followed
by monotonic declines (though not in MIS 15a). Interglacials of the second group (MIS 11c, 13a and 17) are characterized by slow deglaciation (Rohling et al., 2010; Ruddiman et al., 2011) and the persistence of interglacial values over two summer insolation peaks. The long duration of MIS 11c has been attributed to weak eccentricity precession forcing, leading to a skipped precessional cycle, with obliquity becoming the dominant astronomical parameter driving ice volume changes (Masson-Delmotte et al., 2006). However, MIS 13a and 17 are not characterized by subdued eccentricity-precession variations, which suggests that their extended duration is a function of some other factor. This is further underlined by the short duration of MIS
19c, despite its subdued amplitude of insolation changes, as a result of weak eccentricity-precession forcing (Tzedakis et al., 2012). One aspect common to MIS 11c, 13a and 17 is that precession and obliquity are nearly opposite in phase, with the obliquity maximum post-dating the first precession minimum by 11–13 kyr and preceding the second precession minimum by 8–10 kyr. This means that the first summer insolation minimum occurred at the time of maximum obliquity. A low value of obliquity is important in determining ice accumulation in high latitudes, by leading to an intensified equator-to-pole insolation gradient and increased poleward transport of moisture, and by delaying the spring melt season (Raymo and Nisancioglu, 2003; Vettoretti and Peltier, 2004).
Comparing the Holocene with MIS 11c interglacial:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v483/n7390/fig_tab/nature10891_F1.html

ImranCan

Yes .. although that is 50,000+ years away. Which makes the point hat while ice ages can end quite quickly (within 5000 years), it typically take a while for an interglacial to cool into a full ice age. Several 10’s of thousands of years.
Which is why statements like that Russian professors are somewhat foolish. By putting a date on something he looks like a failed doomsayer. And for sure the low sun activity may mean some cooling, but this needs to be distinguished form a genuine ice age. And modern man will weather such cooling much better than Europeans in the mid 18th century. If it wasn’t for al this chitchat about climate, most people wouldn’t even notice.

Jake J

I’ve always thought we live in charmed times. Think of it a second. In the U.S., we’ve really only had four major natural disasters in our history — the New Madrid (1811-12), San Francisco (1906) and Alaska (1964) earthquakes, and the 1930s drought.
We’re overdue for much worse, including earthquakes and volcanic eruptions anywhere from Mt. Lassen, CA up to Mt. Baker, WA, and the Yellowstone caldera. Even a moderate earthquake on the East Coast will cause major damage to New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Washington, Wilmington, Raleigh-Durham, Charlotte, and Richmond.
There are the volcanic islands that periodically collapse and unleash “megatsunamis.” The planet is constant bombarded with meteors, and occasionally comets, some producing widespread devastation and civilization collapse. There are plagues and epidemics, ad natural climate changes. None of which have happened for several hundred years.
Charmed times. Enjoy them while they last.

Trygve Eklund

On catastrophes being overdue: Remember the fundamental property of chance – “Chance has no memory”.

TRM

Canary islands anyone?

Gary Pearse

Trygve Eklund
September 14, 2014 at 5:45 am
“Chance has no memory.” Who says it’s chance. I would say were dealing with deterministic events. The next major meteor impact is currently following the laws of gravitation and momentum. We just don’t know where it is.

noaaprogrammer

According to an old wives’ tale, disasters come in pairs or triples. With regard to time (as well as area), this is also shown by the statistical Poisson Distribution – including, of course, single instances of disasters.

MarkW

@Trygve Eklund, while chance has no memory, the earth does. Earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis are based on a build up of forces. The longer it has been since the last one means that the forces are continuing to build up. Since rock can only take so much strain before breaking, saying that we are over due has some validity. That doesn’t mean that we can accurately predict these things to the right decade or century based merely on the historical record. It does mean that if historically a big earthquake occurs on a particular fault every 50 years, and it’s been 80 years since the last one, that is good reason to be very nervous and to make sure your house is in good shape for a shaking.

MIS 11 also enjoyed a balmy interglacial, but longer and warmer than even the Eemian. This from the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres is CACA but still the information about duration and other characteristics of the interglacial during that stage is valid.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2012JD017725/full
Sea surface temperatures in cooler climate stages bear more similarity with atmospheric CO2 forcing
S. Das Sharma*,
D. S. Ramesh,
C. Bapanayya and
P. A. Raju
Article first published online: 7 JUL 2012
DOI: 10.1029/2012JD017725
The stage spanning the beginning of the Holocene to present-day (11–0 kyr) is marked as MIS 1. Of the various stages, special scientific attention is attributed to MIS 11, as the astronomically induced minor changes in the distribution of solar energy reaching the earth and related climate forcing during this stage were mostly similar to those of the ongoing MIS 1 interglacial period [Berger and Loutre, 2002; Loutre and Berger, 2003]. A complete MIS 11 carbon dioxide record from the Antarctic Vostok ice core data indicates that the concentration of carbon dioxide throughout this interglacial period of about 30,000 years were comparable to the Earth’s pre-industrial levels [Raynaud et al., 2005]. The exceptionally long duration of MIS 11 is attributed to (i) astronomically induced changes in the distribution of solar energy and (ii) concentration of carbon dioxide [Raynaud et al., 2005]. Many researchers have also documented synchronicity in marine and ice sheet isotope records together with terrestrial climate-proxy responses to identify warm episodes with intervening cool phase(s) during MIS 11 [e.g.,Ashton et al., 2008; Fawcett et al., 2011; Tzedakis et al., 2001].

J. Parsons

Galveston hurricane should be on that list

mwhite
whiten

If they stop fudging with data, we may just find out we are in one {Ice Age} or just about……:)

William McClenney
Ian Schumacher
thingadonta

When, and if the world cools, historically it tends to do so more slowly than when it warms, so don’t expect a rash of colder weather over coming decades fast.

Actually there are many papers on how fast cooling can occur.

GregK

Ask Otzi the Iceman how fast cooling can occur [at least locally].
if the weather/climate hadn’t turned from mid-summer to freezing virtually overnight, and remained that way for several thousand years, we would never have met him.

PiperPaul

The latest papers re. Antarctic say it can happen over as short period as 50-100 years. That was what must have happened for the ice free waterfilled sea under Antarctic Ice Sheet to be able to still be without freezing.
Same thing happened in Greenland beginning second half 1300’s slowly but drastic in 1341 after a serie of Vulcan eruptions in Greenland-Iceland area.

Gary Pearse

Geothermal gradient from the hotter interior causes water at the interface.

Steve P

Yea, it was pretty cool to see Spock clutching that babe on the Star Trek re-run this week-end on MeTV.

Jbird

There’s considerable evidence that, at times, parts of the world have cooled abruptly and remained so for millennia. Flash frozen mammoths found in parts of Siberia with their flesh still edible after centuries, and palm trees perfectly preserved and uncovered in the ice in Antarctica are two examples. The mammoths, in particular, died while peacefully grazing on warm season plants, frozen where they stood.

Kenny

Aren’t we naturally cool? In other words….the Earth doesn’t produce enough of its own heat, so we depend on our star. If there are any disruptions in that, then we could cool fairly rapidly. I’m not saying that Michigan will be under ice in 5 years, but temps could drop suddenly if the output of the sun decreases.

jones

It’s all a bit of a mess alright.
Will there be an accounting for the huge waste of resources over the last 20 years?
I very much doubt it.

richard verney

There is no reason to ‘believe’ that we are heading into the next glacial phase. However even modest cooling (as might occur over the next decade or two) will be an inconvenience, especially with respect to food production. But hey, Man is an adaptor, he will cope and survive.
IF the planet were to enter a new ice age, Man would obviously survive, but the impact would be stark. Many countries would simply be inhabitable. Rich countries like Norway and Canada would be unrecognisable. Every single building ever erected would be demolished, under a mile or more of ice. Man would have to migrate towards the tropics, Southern Europe and Northern Africa would quickly become over populated. Maximum development is in the North, so it is a bit ironic that Man would have to migrate to areas of least development, and to places where (at least from the infrastructural point of view) he will be least well equipped to deal with change. But as long as there is time, no problem.
Compare that to the miniscule problem that would arise if sea water levels were to rise a metre or two. Global cooling is always far worse than global warming.
But the author is right that we are ill equipped for a change in the cool direction because of politicians having signed up to the AGW mantra. One can see that in the UK. Since 2000, winter temps (Dec to Feb) have fallen by more than 1 degC. The UK has had a string of very cold winters with a lot of snowfall. But the Met Office has been unable to forecast such since their computers run hot. Local government and airports have got rid of their snow ploughs and salt/gritting machinery has been run down, with the consequence that main roads. airports, schools etc have all had to close for lengthy periods when there has been harsh winter conditions.
There have been many premature winter deaths amongst the elderly (25,000 to 40,000 depending upon which harsh winter one is looking at) due to a combination of factors, namely poor, old and damp hosuing stock, low pensions and poverty, and the high cost of energy in relation to that income group. as energy prices continue to escalate, and should cold winters become more prevalent, we will see an ever increasing number of people who cannot afford to properly heat their homes leading to illnesses and premature death.

latecommer2014

Nothing changes faster than a politicians certitude in what is certain.

So we’re back to the Ice Age predictions of the 1970s. Makes me feel young again.
And doomed, of course.

Les Johnson

We are headed to an ice age. The time between spring and fall equinox (summer) was about 8.75 days longer than the time bewteen the fall and spring equinox (winter) in the year 1. Its currenntly at 7.5 days longer.
In other words, spring and summer in the NH is longer than winter and fall. But getting shorter. In about 14,000 years, the cool seasons will be longer than the warm seasons. This is when ice ages start.
http://www.timeanddate.com/calendar/seasons.html?year=1&n=188

Spotted Reptile

Good thing I live in the Southern Hemisphere then eh . . .

phlogiston

Ice ages always begin ay the half way point of the down stroke of the precession cycle. That means either now, or in 22kyrs or 44 kyrs time.

That was terse and to the point. I hope for my sake it’s not “now” but one of the others.

See - owe to Rich

Les, the problem with the variable you quote is that it is anti-correlated to solar insolation. The reason is that a long spring to autumn equinox implies that the Earth’s aphelion lies in midsummer, which means less summer insolation in northern latitudes, which has been claimed to be a cooling effect. So we are in the middle of a NH cooling effect which, with usual climatic lags, might last for another quarter precession cycle, or about 6000 years.
So glaciation is more likely in 2000 years’ time than in 14000 years. But the current eccentricity in this Milankovitch cycle may help to stave it off. And/or CO2 if one thinks that helps a little bit.
Rich.

Manfred

The cracking heaving glaciers will be breaking windows in Whitehall before the establishment and “climate science” concede it’s a mite cooler. They’ll claim they underestimated the cooling effect of the thousands of windmills they erected on the viagra of subsidies in the name of reducing “carbon”.

What a wondeful turn of phrase, “erected on the viagra of subsidies.” And, have you priced that stuff lately? That’s a VERY expensive subsidy.

joselori

I like it too. May I have your permission to us it on occasion, (the phase, not viagra)
Thanks

jeff

it used to be that it took a “trend” of a decade or more for the alarmism to take root. now, it seems that everybody is ready to pounce on noise and call it a trend. warming…cooling….bah! the sun is a noisy (0.1% level) power source. weather is chaotic. get used to it. have a beer.

ConTrari

The recent slight warming has not harmed us. Nor will a possilbe slight cooling. I am personally a witness to the fact that man could survive in the 1970s, when the world was on the ice-slippery slope towards catastrophic cooling.
When the next ice age arrives, man will have developed giant hair dryers to halt the growth of the glaciers. Polar bears can get their furs dryed too.

stargazer

Not a problem… we will just dump a little more CO2 into the atmosphere and problem solved. Maybe the government can give us some kind of tax break for producing more carbon?
Yeah… that should work. Just as soon as they remove CO2 as a pollutant/toxin.
Like that’ll happen anytime soon.
Or maybe congress and the supremes can outlaw eccentric orbits. Or precession, or non-zero orbital inclinations? I’m sure the prez would get out his pen for that.

Steve R

Imagine I invented a device that could change the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere to any value and fix it forever. But it could not be tweaked once it was set. Once it was set and activated, it could not later be adjusted to a different value.
Not being a climate scientist, I present my machine to the climate science community and ask them to come up with some kind of consensus about what value of CO2 concentration they think would be best for the world.
My question: Faced with the prospect of having to live with their selection, what kind of value do you think they would select? For added drama, I tell them that (me being a dumb engineer), if they don’t provide me with a consensus recommendation, I will select the default value of 0.0 ppm.

Brute

Perverse dilemma.

whiten

“Imagine I invented a device that could change the CO2 concentration of the atmosphere to any value and fix it forever. ”
————————
It may seem like a joke what you say above, but actually that is how I think the problem we face with the climate can be portrayed to show what actually need it.
You see….. to invent a device like that and expect to efficiently do the job, you the inventer must know how the climate works, you need to have a much much better knowledge about climate.
That is exactly what is in question, the knowledge, that is what is important for us in the real run.
Besides the “invention” already there, we call it civilization.
What need it is only a fine adjastment of it to the condition, the climate condition.
Without a much better knowledge of the climate and the earth system we wont be able to even contemplate how that could be achieved.
The only metric helping us to see how good our knowledge is, will be the amount of reduction of the CO2 footprint of our civilization.
cheers

Steve R

But the question is…What is the correct Value for CO2. What should I set the device to.

whiten

@Steve R
But the question is…What is the correct Value for CO2. What should I set the device to.
——-
Of course you are right.
My reply to you was not conceptually proper and in line with your point, but the point I was making was that considering the subject from your angle, for the sake of the debate, we still end up with the need or the requirment of knowing and learning more about climate.
Maybe we get to a point of understanding and learning that shows a requirment of not simply fixing the value but more like beeen able to flexibly change it in accordance with the climate condition,which will be a much harder task than just fixing it.
Is only an argument to show more knowledge need it, as what known so far seems wrong and flimsy and no any near to be good enough.
cheers

joelobryan

Bill McKibben THINKS he knows.
The illusion of knowledge is worse than honestly not knowing. President Obama regularly demonstrates that axiom, Much to the US’s detriment.

SunSword

Set it to 1000 ppm. That is a good number for plant growth, and perfectly safe for animals.

Gail Combs

1000 ppm or even 1600 ppm (optimum for plants)

urederra

Professor Bob Carter, writing in today’s edition of The Australian, a major Aussie daily newspaper, warns that the world is unprepared for imminent global cooling, because of the obsession of policy makers with global warming.

Not only policy makers are to blame for the obsesion. Academia should take responsibility for that too.

More a self reinforcing runaway hysteria IMO.
Politicians demanded the impossible, and tied lots of money to achieving a result.
Climategate Email 0700.txt
… J Jouzel said that the truth will come from the use of models and their validation and that there was a move in WCRP – CLIVAR to take more interest in palaeo-data. Communications between scientists and politicians are becoming more and more important and the scientific population must be large enough to be visible. D Raynaud commented that the work by Stocker in 1997 on the gross rate of emissions and the change in thermo circulation is important to conferences such as Kyoto. K Hutter added that politicians accused scientists of a high signal to noise ratio; scientists must make sure that they come up with stronger signals. The time-frame for science and politics is very different; politicians need instant information, but scientific results take a long time …
Some scientists, who already believed, decided to go with their gut, and present a stronger case than the evidence justified – and in doing so pleased their political masters. A few scientists kicked out against this, but not very many – most knuckled under in the end.
Climategate Email 4872.txt
… I know there is pressure to present a nice tidy story as regards ‘apparent unprecedented warming in a thousand years or more in the proxy data’ but in reality the situation is not quite so simple. …
As to *why* nobody called a halt to this nonsense – a few scientists tried. And they were made examples of. Look at what happened to Carter, to Salby, and to who knows how many scientists who had to choose between financial ruin and intellectual dishonesty.

David Jay

“…come up with stronger signals”
UUHHH… How does that work?

William Astley

It is most certainly true that the world is not prepared in any manner for sudden and significant global cooling.
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startday=27&startmonth=03&startyear=1964&starttime=00%3A00&endday=14&endmonth=05&endyear=2014&endtime=00%3A00&resolution=Automatic+choice&picture=on
http://cio.eldoc.ub.rug.nl/FILES/root/1999/QuatSciRevvGeel/1999QuatSciRevvGeel.pdf
“The role of solar forcing upon climate change”
“A number of those Holocene climate cooling phases… most likely of a global nature (eg Magney, 1993; van Geel et al, 1996; Alley et al 1997; Stager & Mayewski, 1997) … the cooling phases seem to be part of a millennial-scale climatic cycle operating independent of the glacial-interglacial cycles (which are) forced (perhaps paced) by orbit variations.”
“… we show here evidence that the variation in solar activity is a cause for the millennial scale climate change.”
Last 40 kyrs
Figure 2 in paper. (From data last 40 kyrs)… “conclude that solar forcing of climate, as indicated by high BE10 values, coincided with cold phases of Dansgaar-Oeschger events as shown in O16 records”
Recent Solar Event
“Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) “…coincides with one of the coldest phases of the Little Ice Age… (van Geel et al 1998b)
Periodicity
“Mayewski et al (1997) showed a 1450 yr periodicity in C14 … from tree rings and …from glaciochemicial series (NaCl & Dust) from the GISP2 ice core … believed to reflect changes in polar atmospheric circulation..”

We have been warming for some 300 years according to borehole temperatures and instrumental records
http://www.earth.lsa.umich.edu/climate/gst5.gif
Giss and Hadley can be seen in their proper context as staging posts for temperature rise, not the starting post.
Why did it start rising? I don’t know. Has it been rising prior to that? It was certainly warm at times in the preceding half millennia but with a serious dip in the middle between the MWP and the modern warm era.
Will the warming trend reverse itself? I don’t know. We might have a better idea if we were to identify the reasons for the previous warm and cool periods which places the current era into better perspective as apparently just another one of many warm periods but one that, because we can measure it instead of just accepting it, has caused consternation.
At some point it will cool again and whether the modern era can cope with long periods of cold bearing in mind the way we live and grow food is something the experts need to look at. At the least we need to prepare a plan B for cooling even if most of their attention remains focused on a plan A for warming.
tonyb

phlogiston

Extrapolate climate temperature back 500 years from just over a century of data? This makes no sense in a chaotic unpredictable climate system. What planet are these guys on? Planet linear?

Stephen Richards

climatereason
September 14, 2014 at 12:26 am
A look at the graph for the Holocene will show that we have been cooling since the end of the YD period. Be careful where you choose your start point for global temps.

Stephen
I am merely commenting that w have unexplained warming from 1700 which clearly predates enhanced co2.
We can observe ups and downs prior to the start of the graph. The data anyway is very smoothed as it does not show the considerable fluctuations in climate. The proxies are a very coarse sieve through which the fine grain of real world annual and decadal temperatures readily fall
tonyb

whiten

“I am merely commenting that w have unexplained warming from 1700 which clearly predates enhanced co2.”
——————
They have got a big problem with climate sensitivity metric.
No matter how loose or arbitrary the aproach to that metric, still it stands in a form of a simple equation with two variables, CO2 and temperatures.
No matter how variabless estimated initially in that equacion once they are, the metric is a much better one to estimate climate, climate change and climate trends, in short and long term, than the CO2 or the temperatures alone.
So while you can claim either warming or cooling in short term simply by looking at temperature trend, the CS metric could show you differently and will be more correct.
That said the way climate is going makes it hard to claim that it is warming or with any chance of warming possible in the near or far future once you look at climate sensitivity, to a point that with the way the temp data adjasted lately,sooner rather than later the CS will show that the warming of 20th century did not even hapend
With the hiatus there and persisting they are in a very much need to postpone the date they have to surrender with their ACC-AGW.
First IPCC downgraded the CS lower range to 1.5C, as to give them more time on the expectation of the AGW.
Few months ago even N. Dana tried at the Guardian to stretch the warming trend back to 250 years (ago), even while that did contradict his main point in that article about the AGW.
Unless the warming starts some time soon, they have to keep stretching the warming trend further back in the past, as the CS otherwise will show that the so much claimed warming is of no significance at all to a point that it should not be considered at all in regard to climate, no more than a low noise .
Don’t be surprised if next year or the one after it you see some scientist trying to even stretch the warming trend to a 400 years or more.
What these guys don’t get is that CS as a metric and an equation has been set against them since day one of the AGW and does not seem to give away.
They knew that CS meaning, very good with numbers, to an extent that if we were in a warming or to a point of significance of temperatures supporting AGW, every no AGWer and contrarian would have being floged day and night endlessly to the “death” with the stick of CS.
They gambled, lost………… and now are trying to get around it, rather foolishly.
Simply a very desperate move……
According to CS, CONSIDERING SHORT TERM OR THE LONG TERM CLIMATE STATE OR TREND, it is pointing towards the next climate equilibrium in a form of a very cooling period, an Ice Age.
The anomaly is same as prior to LIA but much much sharper and significant, when seen in a long term format.
In a short term one we are in a very prolonged anomaly which starts with LIA up to now in a way that clearly points towards cooling.
Anomaly means the rather strange anomal form of transient climate, climate not in equilibrium in a strange
and sharp form. CS considered a TCS in such periods.
Either we are in a transient climate of 150 years with a sharp, very sharp lowering of CS (TCS) pointing clearly towards the cooling (Long term aproach), or we are in a 500 years of transient climate (TCS) pointing towards a cooling (short term aproach).
BOTH APROACHES OR THE ESTIMATES, LONG TERM AND SHORT TERM POINT CLEARLY TOWARDS A STRONG AND LONG COOLING PERIOD.
CS is a very simple climatic metric established through a very simple equation, does not require a Phd or rocket science qualification to understand it and look through it.
cheers

The warming from c. AD 1700 is no more unexplained than the cooling which preceded it and the warming before that. Previous interglacials show the same patterns. Interglacial climates fluctuate quasi-cyclically, just as do glacials on similar frequency, only with smaller amplitude.
Stephen, IMO we have not been cooling since the end of the YD (12,800 to 11,500 calendar years BP). Peak warmth during the Holocene Climatic Optimum may have occurred around 9000 (between the YD and the 8200 BP cold event) or 8000 (after that excursion) years ago, but was possibly matched during the Minoan Warm Period.
In any case, the Holocene remains in a longer-term temperature downtrend, dating at least from the Minoan WP, c. 3000 years ago, but possibly since the Climatic Optimum. The Modern Warm Period so far has been cooler than the Medieval, Roman and Minoan Warm Periods.

knr

Just has well that due to the ‘power of CO2’ , AGW can lead to global cooling has well .

On the subject of frosts damaging crops in NSW – here is the minimum anomaly map for Australian winter 1 June to 31 August – much of the NSW wheat belt averaged a negative anomaly
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/index.jsp?colour=colour&time=latest&step=0&map=minanom&period=3month&area=nat
These daily data show the damage was done in first 2 weeks of August – frost for 14 days straight in some areas – scroll down past the green rain data –
http://www.australianweathernews.com/data/DE0850.HTM
In the met region NSW Central Western Plains – south there is no sign of rain just before this frost event – so I doubt the explanation by Lisa Castleman, Riverina Local Land Services (NSW Government).

Streetcred

Facts mean nothing to the warmista, they just need a narrative to convey their BS. Pity that decisions made as a consequence have far reaching effects. Castleman should be called to account.

Streetcred

So you’re saying that warm winters cause more frost? BS!
Maybe the farmers should not have taken the advantage of the mild window of risky opportunity knowing that the crop would be vulnerable to “stem frost”. This all falls into the same BS basket as “the dams will be empty, we’ll never have rain again, if we do it’ll just run off the surface”. Channeling Flannery, Karoly, et al …
I can just see the issue here, warmista Land Services / BoM telling farmers that a brief warming is the new status quo; farmers, against better judgement plant seed early and have a little growth spurt; weather does what it does and temperatures fall; frost kills the crop. If they’d planted as normal there’d be no problem.
Now try telling the ski companies what a warm winter they’ve just had … with a ski season into extended October.

ozspeaksup

the other part to that is the fearmongering of another dry winter from the el nino that hasnt happened, so those that had some moisture or the expectation of some..did plant earlier than they might have, otherwise. its been a cold mostly dry winter, and most of us still need rain especially now as crops are wilting.

Farmer Gez

Nice theory on frost but I can tell you from experience that frost damage can happen anytime from late Winter to late Spring. In 1998 a stem frost event with large losses occurred on the 28th of October. Like all things in farming, timing of sowing does not free you from the lottery of the weather.
In Southeast Australia we have a hot desert to our Northwest and cold Antarctic seas to our South and in Spring, with the right weather pattern, we can have 30C heat during the day or -4C cold overnight. Australia is a tough place to farm!

phlogiston

The early planting was no doubt caused by warming hubris.

unpreparedness for Global Cooling
Well, the professor is correct in saying that mankind has not been preparing for global cooling. We have been developing food crops during this warm time and that may prove to be a problem when the cycle reverses and we get weather like in the Little Ice Age. (or even colder) But mankind has shown himself to be adaptable to changing conditions. As a total heretic, I think mankind has been on this planet far longer than the “consensus” story of today. I think mankind has survived a lot of changes in climate. We can do so again if the world governments don’t kill us off first. (nuclear war impossible you say?)
Someday this interglacial will turn into a glacial period and the northern US (if the Empire still exists by then) will be under kilometers of ice. I suspect a real climate migration at that point in time. Hello Panama City!
But when will the next glacial period arrive? I assert that we do not know and that climatologists are incapable at the moment of even honest speculation as they are in a deep hole called conformation bias. (or one could use the F-word banded here that rhymes with Maud and loosely means dissembling)
May God have mercy on me, I love the heat so much I would like to see the present Ice Age end entirely and a return to an ice-free period. After all, the Earth has been ice-free, even in the high latitudes, for about 85% of its history. (or so we are told)
If the greens want to “return to the Garden”, then should they not be praying to the pagan gods for an ice-free Earth?
Note: yes, yes, I know I am the ultimate skeptic and heretic. The wife reminds me all the time. 🙂

Brute

No, no. You are OK. We live in a time when we get to ask, demand even, the kind of climate we like.

Steve Case

Here’s HADCRUT4 since 1850
Sure looks like it’s starting a down turn.

Steve Case
Richard

This happened quickly-
Did the Frozen Mammoths Die in the Flood or in the Ice Age?
http://www.icr.org/article/did-frozen-mammoths-die-flood-or-ice-age/
… of frozen mammoths are found preserved in Siberia, frozen so quickly their flesh could still be eaten today, complete with sub-tropical vegetation in their mouths. … Furthermore, the stomach contents and unswallowed food (actually caught …

Nice try.

Yirgach

Tastes like freezer burned chicken…

Jeff Alberts

What flood?

Try reading what I actually wrote Gracey.
This predicted global cooling, if it occurs, will mean that polar vortex winters and cold related crop failures, such as the recent frost catastrophe which destroyed a significant fraction of Australia’s wheat crop, in the state of New South Wales, will become a normal part of life, and will most likely become a lot worse.
The only thing we know for sure at this point is that it isn’t warming – the frantic manufacturing of excuses as to why it isn’t warming, in line with alarmist predictions, is a sign that whatever else is happening, the science is not settled.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/11/list-of-excuses-for-the-pause-in-global-warming-is-now-up-to-52/
I also think that there is a strong case that climate models overestimate climate sensitivity – the fact that natural variation can halt global warming in its tracks, suggests that natural variation is at least as powerful a forcing as anthropogenic CO2, which by simple logic caps the possible anthropogenic contribution to global warming during the last 30 years or so at around 50%.
I personally think that there is likely to be a significant cooling in the near future – but there are people I respect, who are not convinced that a cooling period is imminent.

The Ukraine has a major warm water port which one would rather own than rent. It is also has a superlative black soil agricultural belt which is to die for. In fact, many have died for it.
I wonder what the Russians might be thinking about future climate. Remember when they were the ones with all the potty intellectuals clapped along by a groupthink media?

I saw a news item a while ago, which suggested that last winter (or the winter before?), Russia had to evacuate some towns in Siberia, because it got so cold the gas supply liquified in the pipes, cutting heating thousands of residents.
That sort of weather probably tends to focus the attention.

I guess with an iced-up Vladivostok and no chance to annex Port Arthur Russia could do a cooling very hard.
Since nobody is much good at predicting climate more than a few weeks out, I suppose one might as well be ready for cooling, whether it comes or not. Some of the most productive nations (eg France, which grows far more wheat than Australia) might find their latitude working against them.
Wouldn’t hurt to be ready. Of course, we don’t want a new priesthood of cooling or “adaptation” theorists. It would be good just to start using the old loaf again…as opposed to what we have been doing post-hockeystick.

Given the recent history of climate science, if a severe cooling trend does set in, all the usual suspects will shamelessly flip flop to global cooling alarmism, still all our fault of course.

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7

Natural gas has a boiling temperature of -162&def; C. The lowest terrestrial temperature ever recorded is -89.2° C in Antarctica — nowhere near cold enough to liquify natural gas in a pipeline. If gas supplies failed in Siberia it must have been for some other reason.

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7

Make that “-162° C”.

Ged

Don’t forget natural gas lines are under pressure, significantly increasing the temperature of condensation (enough pressure can turn even hydrogen into liquid such as used in hydrogen storage tech). Not sure what that value would be in their pressurized lines though, so it still may be a myth, but it could be true if the line pressure is high enough.

I could easily imagine diesel fuel gelling up in the fuel lines knocking out a critical generator, up that far north if you have to depend on a diesel, you leave it running all winter. Knowing how journalists have reported thing I have been involved in, I would not be surprised one bit if they had turned a frozen diesel line into a frozen gasoline line, into a frozen natural gas pipeline; and a scheduled seasonal relocation of non-essential personnel into an emergency evacuation.

MarkW

Could they have been talking about propane rather than natural gas?

Calling that “attribution” is a bit strong. If Carter wanted to say “global cooling is causing severe frosts”, I think he would have just said so. It *might* be the start of Abdussamatov’s cooling trend, or it could just be weather.

AJ Virgo

The Green Parties proved to be viable, the rising stars of European Politics winning elections and ruling outright in some countries. They won Senate seats in Australia and became balance of power holders, They won Lower House seats then joined in coalition with the Socialists, won Government and dictated policy on many things other than the environment.
What if some incredibly clever strategist embedded CO2 warming deliberately to bring this new political threat down knowing all along that Solar output waxes and wanes ………it’s not inconceivable.

Richard111

Beats me why so many people think we need an ice age to stuff up the global food supply.

Mike Maguire

Look for temperatures this upcoming week to be below normal, flirting with record lows in the Northeast US, with some of that cool air spreading to NYC.
The atmosphere must be configuring for the “Gore Effect” and the climate change/global warming rally in New York City next weekend.
Temps may get a bump up closer to normal next Sunday, ahead of the next cold front but there isn’t great skill for exact timing of individual cold fronts 7 days away.

You keep Gore in America – last time he visited Australia, my power bill doubled 🙂

P@ Dolan

Awww, C’mon! Can’t you keep him for just a LITTLE while?? I’m not sayin’ you should let him camp in Kakadu, but if you stuck him out in the Great Sandy Desert or Undarra for a few weeks, you could probably grow orchids after you got tired of him and kicked him out…
Just sayin’…

ren

Polar vortex (17 km) over North America. Forecast on 18/09/2014.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/09/18/1200Z/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-98.75,29.09,553

Eliza

Steve Case: Unfortunately Hadcruit 2, 3, 4 GISS ect its all ADJUSTED data. Just like BOM ect. Not reliable there probably has been NO warming or cooling whatsoever (statistically) since 1880 (see CET). Refer to Goddards sire adjusted v unadjusted temp data worlwide its all been FIXED to suit the AGW mantra. BTW a list of organizations that booted Carter out due to AGW presuures (ie Cook University, NSW Uni.Harper) ect should be made for posterity and future legal cases against these organizations (re promotion of very costly fraud)

Brute

Murdoch?
Peter, my friend, you sound like a crazy person when you talk like this.

cnxtim

“The sky is falling, the sky is falling!” No wait…”The sky is rising the sky is rising!”: Chicken Little “o’s” next dire warning that only a wonder tax can fix…

Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)

Is it just me, or did petey grace show up immediately after Jennifer Marohasy ripped the Fauxcade from off of the BOM temperature records?

There’s been a lot of cutbacks to the Australian climate science budget. Perhaps Peter is someone who suddenly has a lot of free time on his hands?

Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)

Well I asked him about the laughing-gas / ghg study but haven’t heard anything back yet 😛

Reblogged this on gottadobetterthanthis and commented:
Considering history, and eyeballing the trends, one should reasonably conclude we recently peaked on the upswing, and now we will trend down in temperature for a few decades. While I think it is Pollyanna to suppose a full glacial advance isn’t coming, there is no telling when. I’ve thought for years that the next full glaciation will start soon, but soon here means decades to centuries. We just don’t know enough to predict. Regardless, the fact is that the world will be a much worse place if it cools as much as some of the experts suggest. Certainly, these folks are in the minority, but simply looking at the data shows that cooling is likely. A little cooling will hurt, a little more will be bad, as in millions, even billions of us suffering from starvation and other privations.
It seems to me that instead of billions spent on global warming abatement, we could sensibly prepare for significant alterations in climate and be much better prepared. We need to prepare for dealing with cooling that causes crop failures, and we need to be ready for more drought (a feature of cooling periods), and we need to be ready for more rain and warming too, since the kinds of things that make sense for disruptions work no matter what causes the disruption. Heck, that rock is out there. If it falls on us, such preparations will help deal with the havoc it causes.
Long term warming periods used to be called optimums. We need to admit and internalize the fact that cold kills; warmer is better.
Preparing for cooling makes sense. If it stays warm, we should stay appreciative of the fact.

You’re right, I forgot – a good ski season and heavy frosts ruining crops are evidence for global warming climate change global climate disruption climate weirding.

Mike and Eliza– it just COULD NOT BE a coincidence that the most accurate and(? untampered-with) measuring stations are all, ALL down with the approach of a cold spell so severe that it dropped that day’s record low in Sheridan, WY by 12F…… nah

Sorry…

Pamela Gray

No farmer I know buys into AGW scares. They use their own wits combined with some pretty good state agriculture meteorologist and field rep advice, to follow natural trends. It’s the knee of the trends and unforeseen bed weather that are hard to predict and hard on crops, ergo crop insurance.
Fields across this area have been used for a number of different crops depending on the trend we are in. Only bankrupt farmers would plant based on AGW theory. We had crown freeze (which happens below ground) around here on dry land winter wheat this past winter due to an extensive dry cold snap. It had nothing to do with a warmer winter. It froze the balls off brass monkeys. We could have used some snow. In fact, if you get a good snow cover, crown damage is reduced. But we had just the plain old dry cold air kind of freeze. A warmer winter would have been nice but as for early or late fall planting there are pros and cons, none having to do with weather.
If you’ve never planted, best not open thy mouth and prove you have never planted. Here is a pretty good video on growing winter wheat.
http://wn.com/winter_wheat

Pamela Gray

Unforeseen “bed” weather can really put a damper on things. So can bad weather. LOL!

Steve Fox

Pamela, I was more concerned about the ‘knee of the trends’ and missed the bed incident. We don’t have that this side of the pond…. Though I can sort of guess what it means.
Two nations divided by a common language again 🙂

Steve Fox

Of course, ‘bed’ weather is easy to get, being the kind of day you look out, and just snuggle back under the covers…

Pamela Gray

I seem to have inadvertently penned a new phrase for weather. So what would weather be like to be called “bed” weather? Sleet would be one choice. I call that one God Spit. Having been raised around a tobacco chewing grandpa, he would approve.

The operation that farms North and East of my house said they had lost 75% of their winter wheat last winter, they plowed under 285 acres out of 380 and replanted with soy. The soy looks good to my lay eyes as does the corn. Weather around here is very fall like and a wet fall at that, so actually harvesting the soy could be challenging on wet fields, they usually bring in the corn after the ground is frozen.

Here is the reality of the situation. Professor Carter’s is a loose cannon that must be denigrated and demonized. The conventional wisdom is that the Earth can handle either warming or cooling simply by skillfully managing key variables identified by the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) theory. Behind the scenes, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) developed this carved-in-stone theory. Hypothetically, mankind can literally select Earth’s temperature by simply increasing or decreasing the “control knob” of CO2.
Carter apparently does not understand that sensitive matters like this cannot be left in the hands of the uninformed masses. It takes a sophisticated public and scientific front to manage planetary climate. What is required is skillful manipulation of the price of CO2 by a technological elite pulling the right strings at the right time. The right public investments and disinvestments must trigger the right private investments and disinvestments at the right time. At the end of the day nobody that counts gets seriously hurt. Those who count a lot enjoy generous benefits.
Put in simple terms, if Earth begins to cool — and it probably has — all we have to do is increase atmospheric man-made CO2. In other words, we reverse our current strategy. We make burning fossil fuels cheaper and easier. A few political careers will be beaten and bruised. A few fortunes and a few academic egos will need a hidden safety net to catch them as they appear to have to walk the plank. Relatively speaking, it is a piece of cake.
No problem, as long as Carter and his ilk don’t get carried away and turn the boat over. The key is controlling the public information campaign. If word gets out that CO2 is actually not a significant climate factor, the Self-Destruct Device is triggered. All bets are off.

I like.
The problem of warming or cooling can be resolved by adjusting the data according to the needed trend.
W.M.O.
All hail Maurice.

It is not just when you plant, it is also what you plant. Seeds have been developed to be frost, heat, drought, pest etc resistant, but if all the attention is paid to heat resisitance, development and planting of the appropriate seeds can be misdirected. Manipulation of the gentic makeup of our foodstuffs has been the essence and backbone of both farming and ranching for 20,000 years. Recently it has become more specific and faster but gentic manipulation is as old as civilization.

The Antarctic sea ice area today is 16.05 Mkm^2 – continuing a 35 year-long trend since 1978 of steadily increasing ice between latitudes 68 south and latitude 59 south.
The Antarctic sea ice anomaly now is +1.0 million square kilometers above “average for this date, well over +2 standard deviations from the established normals – which continues a 3-years of very high, positive Antarctic sea ice anomalies. (At this rate, the Straits of Magellan and the seas around Cape Horn will be blocked with sea ice within 8-12 years for 1-2 months of every year …)
Now, all of this “extra” sea ice down south is at latitudes where substantial solar energy is going to increasingly be reflected back into space. In the Arctic, the sea ice extents were decreasing, but remained within two std deviations the whole time – basically meaning that, until 2006-2007, the Arctic sea ice was still within natural deviations ferom the normal. Post 2007-2007 of course, they declined (2007 and 2012 were very low), but have returned now (2014) to within their natural range. But this little bit of missing Arctic sea cie occurs up between latitudes 75, 78, and 79 north. Even at noon, the highest the sun gets at minimum extents in September is 8 – 11 degrees above the horizon. Then again, the highest the sun gets over almost all of the sea ice during its time of maximum arctic sea ice extents in late March is only 12 – 14 degrees above the horizon.
But Arctic sea ice doesn’t reflect very sunlight 7 months of the year: Only in the short 3 months of Mid-May through mid-August does the Arctic sea ice receive significantly more sunlight than the Antarctic sea ice, but – during those months, the top-of-atmosphere energy received on earth is at its yearly minimums, getting 80 watts/meter^2 LESS than when the Antarctic sea ice is approaching its minimum in January and February each year. The rest of the time, the Antarctic sea ice controls energy reflected – and the Antarctic is growing. Quickly.

Pamela Gray

Peter, stem damage due to frost on winter wheat is no big deal. Happens all the time. Crown damage below the soil, is a big deal, and happens only with unusually long deep cold freezing temps. Snow protects crowns by insulating heat loss from soils. The soils can be wet or dry. Crown damage can still happen. It all depends on how cold and for how long, and whether or not there is snow on the ground. It matters little when winter wheat was planted.

” The key is controlling the public information campaign. If word gets out that CO2 is actually not a significant climate factor, the Self-Destruct Device is triggered. All bets are off.
******************
Every one of us, if healthy, non-smoking, has blood levels of O2 and CO2, but the numbers, known to all docs/nurses/resp.techs. as well as they know their kids’ birthdays, are in pressures. So, our arterial blood gas (ABG) #s are pO2=95, pCO2= 40. Noone translates these, but it’s easy.
Round #s–O2 is 21% of atm, pressure is ~ 750mm [yes, std. is 760, but that’s @ sealevel, max.]
Soo, O2 pressure is 150 mm. Hg. Ergo the highest blood O2 level, in the lungs, a pO2 of 100 is 2/3 atm.
ie 14%. And the arterial pCO2 of 40 mm. Hg becomes 40^14/100 or 5.6%–56 THOUSAND ppm.
Venous pCO2 is 45 mm. Hg or 63 THOUSAND ppm. That’s at rest. It rises with exercise. Emphysemics at rest are much higher. Is anyone out in the sun undergoing ‘runaway heating?’
It’s not just ‘not significant’–try irrelevant.

herkimer

Lets take one year at a time . We are not even preparing for this upcoming winter with this constant talk of global warming only
It would appear that whenever there is an extra warm SST or a major hot spot in the North Pacific Ocean SST (20-65 N), south of Alaska, during the summer and fall, and early winter, North America including United States experiences below normal or cold winters. The extra warm SST in the North Pacific happened in 2000, 2003, 2006, 2010, 2012 and 2013. There were below normal colder winters in 2001,2004,2007,2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2014. It looks like we may again have a cold upcoming winter during the 2014/2015 winter as this part of the North Pacific Ocean SST is at a warm temperature anomaly of 0.84 C similar to the 2010 anomaly of 0.84C and 2006 anomaly of 0.83 C. It may be that the extra warm air over this region gets into the high Arctic causing jet stream blocking events, SSW events, more frequent negative AO and Arctic vortex distortions, thus bringing wave after wave of cold air further south than normal. This is what happened last winter.

Mac the Knife

We are not even preparing for this upcoming winter with this constant talk of global warming only….
Herkimer,
Some of us are preparing for this upcoming winter!
I have 4 full cords of dry fir firewood, a half cord of dry white oak, a high efficiency wood stove with a blower on the ‘daylight basement’ level of the house, a very well insulated house, and a ‘back up’ gasoline powered electrical generator.
That’s how I prepare for most winters though…. Instead of paying gymnasium fees, I buy very large loads of logs and pieces and cut/split them up myself. It provides many vigorous work outs, keeps me from getting fat, and provides that incomparable wood stove heat throughout a long winter.
Four winters ago, the local electrical grid went down in an ice and windstorm, right at Christmas. It was down for 4 days. I cooked Christmas dinner (a 14lb turkey, mash potatoes, fresh cooked cranberries, acorn squash, etc) on top of the wood stove and finished the turkey on a Weber grill fed with hardwood pieces. I didn’t start the ‘generator’ at all, just lit a bunch of candles and a kerosene mantle lamp. According to the guests that braved the weather and treacherous roads to attend, it was one of their best Christmas dinners ever!
Be prepared…. and may all your Christmases be white!
Mac

Alberta Slim

Whwn is a more severe frost LESS than -2C?
Less frost means -1C [IMO]. A more severe frost would be -3C or -4C . No???

herkimer

Annual Contiguous US temperatures have been declining at (-0.36 F/DECADE) since 1998. This is happening in 7 of the 9 climate regions in United States. Only the Northeast and the West both of which receive the moderating effect of the oceans, had slight warming trend of 0.2 and 0.3 F/decade respectively. Theses 16 year annual temperature declines illustrate that despite any summer warming , the cooling during winter , spring and fall offsets any summer warming resulting in the annual temperature declines
These temperature anomaly trend declines are similar to past temperature declines in United States during 1895-1920 and again 1953 -1979. A similar cool period seems to have started during the current decade .
It is clear that there is no global warming in United States or the globe . Why are we even talking about CO2 levels and global warming? If anything we should be concerned about the impact of falling temperatures in United State.
This cooler weather means a potential for more winter crop damage, winter snow and ice storms, more snow, major floods from spring snow melts and significant thunderstorms, wind storms, bigger tornadoes and power outages as the cold and warm fronts meet more often and at bigger amplitudes. The net result is many areas are unprepared for the current and more importantly the upcoming colder weather in terms of emergency planning, snow clearing infrastructure , heating fuel stocks( propane and natural gas) , local winter budgets , transportation needs , need to switch to more winter hardy crops , power outage repair capability and impact on local economy . It is time to get off this global warming only focus and concentrate on the real problems that confront us today. US spent $55 billion dollars to cope with global cooling this past winter alone. The media recently reported that the US overall economy shrank 1% in the 2014 January to March quarter. The contraction in growth was blamed on a number of factors including an unusually harsh winter
Just look how winter temperatures are declining in United States since 1998
WINTER (-1.79 F/DECADE) – DECLINING
DEC -1.22 F/decade (declining)
JAN -1.52 F/ decade (declining)
FEB -2.77 F/decade(declining)

prjindigo

Has anybody been watching the nightly minimum temperature in the deserts? If CO2 was going to have ANY affect like what the warmists claim it would be raising the nightly lows in the desert!

MarkW

Make sure to keep an eye on the humidity as well. Near by towns and agriculture can increase total humidity enough to make a difference in night time temps.

herkimer

Here is what one farmer said in response to a previous post on different track about the return to cooler weather.
1. @ Herkimer 8.52
Re: your observations that the last 10 years have seen a return to what was happening during the 70′s
As a farmer since the early 70′s. I could not agree more , as the temperatures climbed upwards in the 80′ and 90′s our crops changed to more and more warm climate tolerate ones., today those same growers are seeing winter damage increasing, certain crops needing to be harvested earlier (too early) due to threatening early colder Fall temperatures and now the mad scramble back to winter hardy crops ( most of which are occurring in the soft fruit sector such as grapes, cherries etc..Thanks for your insight.

climatologist

IDLE SPECULATIONS. Let’s make a 100-year forecast so we don;t have to worry about the outcome.