Dr. Caleb Rossiter – The Debate is finally over on “Global Warming” – Because Nobody will Debate
I am deserting from the Climate War. I will never write another climate article or give another climate talk, and I’ll bite my tongue and say oooooooooooom when I hear or see the sort of exaggerations and certainties about the dangers of heat-trapping gasses that tend to make my blood boil at their absurdity. For a decade I’ve been a busy soldier for the scientific method, and hence a “skeptic” to climate alarmism. I’ve said all I think and know about this repetitive, unresolveable topic. I’ll save hundreds of hours a year for other pursuits!
This is not like my pledge to my wife after a marathon that “I’ll never do another one.” This is real. There is simply too little room for true debate, because the policy space is dominated by people who approach this issue not like scholars weighing evidence, but like lawyers inflaming a jury with suspect data and illogical and emotional arguments.
The believers in human–induced catastrophic climate change, strongly represented among the liberal and radical left of American and international politics, have won the mainstream media and government battle for the conventional wisdom, but lost the war for policy change. None of the governmental and few of the institutional and individual actors who claim to fear climate change will take real steps to reduce their use of energy, choosing instead to put on phony shows of “green-ness” and carbon-trading shell games. So it’s over, on both fronts.
I guess I should be happy, since in the other two areas, and blogs, in which I expend professional and personal blood, sweat, and tears (the American empire, and school “reform”) I am usually in agreement with the radical left, and never win. I nod my head happily when reading the Nation magazine and listening to Amy Goodman’s Democracy Now, yet am sadly on the losing end of the policy fights in my areas that they describe. Politicians and well-paid reformers continue to double down on the disaster of nearly 30 years of the blame-the-teacher, mistest-the-student regime, and U.S. arms and training for dictators have reached new heights under every president from Carter to Obama.
Finally, I’m a winner, but for all the wrong reasons. The leaders of the big governments who control global policy aren’t avoiding change because they disagree with the conventional wisdom. They’re avoiding change because it would be politically uncomfortable for them. Thank goodness, because the change they’re mouthing would be more than uncomfortable for developing countries. It would be a disaster, de-industrializing them and taking decades off their citizens’ life expectancy.
* * *
Climate Claims and Fears Can Drive You Crazy
I never expected to be in the Climate War. I have enough wars to fight as an anti-imperialist and an activist supporting development and democracy in Africa against a U.S. policy of backing dictators and American corporations. Only by chance did I get drafted for climate duty. About 10 years ago, when a graduate student in my class on international research statistics wrote a required analysis of any peer-reviewed study in the field, she chose a journal article on some aspect of climate science. Her paper reported data and conclusions about human-induced global warming that were so weak and illogical in their own terms that I gave her a poor grade, noting: “You can’t have read this study carefully.” She protested, and brought me the article, and indeed I saw that one of the most respected names in climate science and climate policy was writing flights of fancy and getting them published in refereed journals. I raised her grade, of course, but not all the way to an A, because she had been so smitten with the credibility of the author and the journal that she forgot to check his logic.
Read the entire essay from Caleb Rossiter here. http://www.calebrossiter.com/Last%20Climate.html
h/t to WUWT reader “David” in Tips and Notes
Caleb Rossiter got fired because of his globalwarming opinons, which we covered here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/12/professors-fellowship-terminated-for-speaking-out-on-global-warming-in-the-wall-street-journal/
Another essay from him was also carried on WUWT:
Caleb Rossiter – opening eyes to the uncertainty of global warming claims
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Phew! I thought this was from you, Anthony, and that you were closing up shop!
Maybe you should make it clearer that this is from Caleb Rossiter.
I think that Anthony might have a mischievous sense of humour!
tonyb
Sadly, it is still a great loss (just not a huge loss).
Anthony–what a shock! It might help to put Caleb’s name up at the top.
Mr Watts, you sense of humor is terrible and April 1st is a long ways off. Like others I had to read to the bottom to see it wasn’t you. What a relief.
For a second, I thought it was you writing, Mr Watts!
Me too!
I did too.
I also was under this assumption
And me. Freaked me out for a while until I realised that the writing style is quite different to that of our dear Mr Watts.
Same here!
So did I !!!!
We’re glad it wasn’t Anthony
So did ! , since Anthony Watts is the name just under the headline and above the text.
Perhaps when posting matherial from others it would be a good idea to make it clear above the text who wrote it.
Bit of an ARGH! moment there. Geez! You keep on trucking, Anthony Watts, you hear me?
Nah. Why would Anthony go to all the trouble to reformat the blog, poll his readers, ask for comments and so forth, only to immediately announce he was pulling out? I twigged almost instantly that it was a piece by someone else. But true enough, a heading indicating it was by CR wouldn’t go amiss and prevent a brief panic! 🙂
As to CR, I can grok his viewpoint. It’s enough to wear anyone out. Lucky for all of us, Anthony hasn’t yet thrown in the towel. But it does make one worry what would happen if he ever did.
Same for me … although I was hoping for an April-Fools-Day kind of ending …
Please do put author’s names at the top. I thought our host was smoking something.
Very cunning editorial flourish to make sure a worthy piece gets read. Prof. Rossiter wears his heart on his sleeve trying to come to terms with the fact that his goals – particularly cheap power to Africa – and his scientifically-based scepticism, are shared by those he clearly considers to be politically anathema. For him at least, the debate is clearly not over, in fact, his journey along his personal Damascene road has barely begun.
It was f#1^&!! But ok. (I do apologise for the expeletives, but it was!)
I wish there was an ‘edit’ button, but it was (EXPLETIVES) mean!
Shouldn’t this be entitled “A re-posted essay from Caleb Rossiter “, or similar, at the top? When I read “I am deserting from the Climate War” I also originally took it as referring to our host!
And I see that the count is now at 198.8 million …
i had to check the date, and make sure it wasn’t a article from The Onion or Daily Currant
please don’t do that to us again… 😉
It’s called repositioning and it’s usually connected to a ship in trouble …
Pointman
I spent a lot of time stopping the carbon tax in Australia when it was tossed out the window I said what will i do know lucky WUWT filled the space when the global warmers get tossed out the window what will fill my space ? maybe model trains
Holy Mackaroli.
Please put the writer of the essay at the top of the post so I don’t get halfway through it before I realize the sky’s not falling
Tears started to well in my eyes before I twigged. Something tells me that he deliberately ‘forgot’ to include the author’s name for his own amusement.
Anthony,
Don’t.Do.That.Again.
I know it’s your site but consider yourself told off!
K?
A
You nearly gave me a heart attack! Of course my death would have been attributed to climate change.
Arf…..
so relieved Anthony. Never surrender!
Even if our host ever wanted to give up he wouldn’t need to give up the blog. Yeah he can stop blogging and pass on the reigns to a deputy to keep the blog going. Please stay with it though.
“reins’ Jimbo. Thought you guys were generally anti-monarchist 🙂
I loooooove the queen, but looooooath her husband and son Charles. Why? A hypo-Warmists and anti-humanist.
Long live the Queen! Longer than Charles, at least.
I think what Mr. Watts did here was was brilliant! Thanks.
I thought it was a hack
I’m making a donation right now! As encouragement. The world needs AW.
Donation made. Now for Mr. Rossiter:
Quitter! I understand that you were attacked by the mindless climate alarmist lemmings. So what? They are just losing the debate, and they regarded you as an apostate. But they don’t matter — unless you let them matter.
Stick to your guns! If you believe in what you said, don’t give up. Never give up! If you do, you lose.
The truth is winning. Haven’t you noticed? The public is coming around. You can see it in their comments in newspapers and magazines; all over the internet. It was only a few years ago that the average public comment expressed concern. But no more! Now, the average comment ridicules “global warming”. The bloom is off the rose. They have cried “Wolf!” too often. But it was just a false alarm.
You have been sheltered by academia for too long, Mr. Rossiter. The fight has been taken out of you, and just when you were starting to win. You should have stood your ground. You will always regret quitting at a time like this.
Word up, my friend. Winners never quit, &etc….
phew, I read this and was gutted thinking you were closing this page. So essential to have a voice against the idiots. Thank goodness you are not leaving. I would make it a bit more apparent at the headline it is not you that is going to stop reporting or questioning…
I got bored of the debate 6 months ago. Good on him for leaving.
And yet, here you are…
Yes, sigh…
I see the global warming scandal as part of a much larger change which has exposed public “officials” to scrutiny which never thought they would be subject to. Notable examples is the sex abuse scandals at the BBC. and recently the rapes of over 1000 children at Rotherham in the UK.
Like the Global warming scam, officials knew what was going on. Like the global warming scam they “hid the decline”, destroyed incriminating evidence and prevented proper investigation.
And like the Global warming scam – they assumed – based on all the history of their profession – that they would just get away with it. What is remarkable, is not that these are exceptional – because from the way these scandals keep coming out they appear to be endemic.
Instead what appears to be exceptional is that in the 21st century, they are finally being found out. And the reason I think is because the internet and blogs like this are beginning to expose the corruption malpractice and contempt for the public that has been endemic in most bureaucracies and hidden by the acquiescence of all the “establishment” including establishment journalists and politicians.
And so we have won, not in the sense that we’ve forced these bureaucracies to roll back the utter nonsense they’ve foisted on the public in the name of “global warming”, but in the sense, that they know that anything and everything they do is being scrutinized and they know they can not longer just make up the “scientific” facts to justify the policy they’ve already decided.
So, long as there is one blogger willing to reveal their dark secrets …
THEY WILL GET CAUGHT OUT.
I’m not so optimistic.
My gut says it will take at least a generation before bureaucracies understand they are much more exposed than they used to be. Senior managers in bureaucracies tend to be pathologically inclined (and well trained by observation) to deny, deflect and obstruct in the context of failure and malfeasance in their organizations. They will likely ascribe any heightened exposure to ‘bad luck’ or ‘someone’s political agenda’ rather than to a sea change in the way they are monitored. Only Internet-savvy managers (a generation younger, no doubt) will understand the power of the Internet and maybe start to change their behaviors. However they’ll likely figure out that, given the short attention span of the Internet, a little bit of contrition mixed with a great deal of delay will work just as well. Only the worst cases will ‘stick’. All the others will quickly fade away.
AGW, Empire, the education system….read The Tragedy and the Hope by Prof Carrol Quigley, the Federal Reserve Conspiracy by Prof Anthony Sutton and The Underground History of American Education by JT Gatto
All 3 are available free online.
Yikes I didn’t know those links would post the entire 3 books!
Well, cant say you couldn’t find them
[Sorry, had to snip them. The names should be enough… ~mod.]
A much shorter version than the 1500-page original is “Tragedy and Hope 101”. I think’s the Kindle version is $1, IIRC.
Roger
That is also available free here
http://joeplummer.com/tragedy-and-hope-made-easy.html
He followed a very common path. Initially (I assume), believing what the papers said. Then investigating when something didn’t seem quite right. Then finding the issue so clear it could surely be settled if only he pointed out the facts. Then learning the facts of life and giving up.
Before he died, I believe Michael Crichton had thrown in the towel, too, and I’m sure I’ve also heard the sentiment from others. AGW proponents have government grants as incentives. Their opponents have only a preference for truth. I’m afraid the former may be the more-reliable motivation.
Please state why you believe that Crichton threw in the towel. IMO, in his last year (2008), he was still ridiculing mercilessly purveyors of global warming fear. In 2007 his side “won” the Intelligence Squared debate on the alleged climate crisis against Gavin’s Team.
I’m so relieved it’s not Mr W. who’s giving up, tho’ until I got to bottom of article I was staring to feel slightly unwell. As we used to say back in the ’60s : Keep on truckin’!
Like others have said, it would be good to announce at the beginning that the text is from Caleb Rossiter. I never thought it could be Anthony’s text, one doesn’t do such a big effort to reform his blog if he is planning to quit afterwards, but I was surprised not to find any reference as to the authorship of the text until the very end.
Anyway, this was as good a moment as any to remember that I have to say THANK YOU more often. A million thanks for all the good work you do, Anthony. Small donation sent, although not as big as you undoubtedly deserve.
Caleb should understand that CAGW / IPCC / WWF / Greenpeace / WE MUST ACT NOW! is not about science or debate. It’s about getting energy changes through irrespective of the evidence. If the world entered a cooling phase lasting 20 years it would not matter. If we entered another Little Ice Age it would not matter. If we entered another glacial advance it would not matter. I am not joking friends, it would not matter.
Actually it may be over very soon!!
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php LOL
We win!
Several years ago I wrote/argued almost daily about AGW on the JLC Forums. Eventually I came to much the same conclusion as Caleb and realized I was just wasting a major portion of my life. I quit cold turkey and haven’t logged into the site since. I don’t miss it.
Friends
The above article is about someone walking away from the ‘climate war’.
The war is won so please have sympathy for old ‘soldiers’ whose battle fatigue causes them to step back from the fray.
And please remember those who have died in the ‘front line’. I draw especial attention to Helmut Metzner in the East, John Daly in the West, and Zbigniev Javarowski who straddled East and West.
There are still some who have been consistent in defending against the ‘climate scare’ while a generation has passed. Fred Singer, Sherwood Idso and Ferdinand Engelbeen are examples.
But the war is won. Victory was achieved at Copenhagen in 2009. The scare is slowly fading away and the battles now are to ensure the scare is completely gone before it causes many more casualties.
Richard
Richard, good point.
What are the signs that we have won the war? Could Copenhagen have been a battle won or a war won? Paris 2015 might be the nail in the casket seeing as the IPCC has has seen it fit to produce a propaganda video.
After a decade of “we must act now!” there is little in the way of results. Co2 output continues up, the proportion of wind and solar in the energy mix has remained unchanged in 20 years. And just this June it was reported that global coal usage reached a 44 year high, and is confidently projected to continue increasing. They see success as de-industrializing the west – the rest of the world not so nuts.
I beg to differ. In my neighborhood they are closing down a power plant that works, and replacing it with power that doesn’t work, and even doesn’t exist. The war is not over until sanity returns.
They may win this battle, and they may win at Paris in 2015, and they may close down coal plants in the US. They’d better hope the climate cooperates, and China cooperates, or the blowback will be more immense than it would be if they gave up now. The farther they push into the Big Muddy, the more fatal it will be for them.
PS: By 2018 or 2020, this alarmist blunder could turn out to be the Left’s greatest gift to its enemies ever. And the environmental movement will thereafter encounter reflexive derision to all its claims, even true ones, and its donations will be halved.
PPS: If the Left retains a shred of cred after 2020, it will be because of an organization called LAWD! (Leftists Against Warmist Dogma) that managed to get leftists to sign a petition distancing themselves from the madness in good time. Start with Freeman Dyson, Steve McIntyre, and that big name socialist in France. This is what Rossiter should get cracking on.
I beg to differ in one area,and that is the PROPAGANDA side of the war.That is one we have not won in part because we do not think like a propagandist as we are interested in the SCIENCE side of the debate,where facts and evidence are important.
I spend most of my time on a huge facebook group page dealing with outright morons who thinks warmist science is excellent and the many models are in line with measured data.I try hard to show just a few examples of how far off the IPCC really are in their modeled projections such as the one where they say that in the first two decades of this century,we are expected about a .20C warming in EACH of the two decades,but I show using their most commonly used temperature data from HadCrut4 as a slight cooling trend this century thus far.They for the most part just ignore it and go on with their babble.
Yes there are those who have put up the fight before us and will see new fighters for credible honest science research into the future,but the fight for sanity on the topic is still ongoing for us today.It is amazing how narrow minded these people are out there can be,and make me wonder if some of them drink the kool aid too much to see and think reasonably.
Obama is going to try to achieve via dictatorial fiat what he could not get through Congress even when his party controlled both Houses. He has suborned the Defense Department, NASA, NOAA and every other arm of the Executive Branch to advance his tyrannical agenda, and failed. He will be dangerous for the next two years, but so far science is winning over ideological advocacy. In the US there won’t be final, total victory until a pro-science, anti-hoax President is elected as well.
I wish I could agree that the war is won, but you underestimate the determination and lack of principle (the ends justify any means) of those pushing the CAGW agenda. If temperatures continue to plateau or fall, they’ll credit the new EPA regulations (ignoring that Co2 emissions will have continued to increase worldwide). On the other hand if temperatures have another upward cycle, they’ll claim that it’s proof that we need to do more, much more.
I believe “the pause” is the reason that they have gotten more and more shrill about “tipping points” and needing to do something right away. Getting any sorts of measures implemented puts them in a no-lose situation where they can either claim credit or claim we need to do more. But the longer the pause, the harder it will be to get that done.
Blast from the Past (Dec. 2012)
http://climatephysics.com/open-letter-to-un-secretary-general-no-reason-to-restrict-co2-climate-models-are-wrong/
Friends:
I wrote
There have been several disputes that “the war is won” but little interest in the ” ‘old soldiers’ whose battle fatigue causes them to step back from the fray”.
I think that is sad.
Richard