It seems possible, given the sort of year it has been. This plot from DMI shows what appears to be the classic “end of melt season” turn in sea ice extent, a good 2-3 weeks before it usually occurs. Whether this is just a wiggle that may be followed by a downturn remains to be seen, but it certainly is interesting.
![icecover_current_new[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/icecover_current_new1.png?quality=75)
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php (via the WUWT sea ice page)
JAXA reports a turn as well:
So does NANSEN:
If this is truly a turn in the melt season, it will be the earliest one in the satellite record and will mean that the average sea ice extent for September will be well above 6 million square kilometers.
That will put a real twist in the ARCUS sea-ice forecasting contest.
For those who would hold up the NSIDC chart and say “see, not turning!”:
I’ll point out that the NSIDC graph displays a 5 day running average, and like the Titanic, is slow to turn before collisions with near real-time data like we see with JAXA, NANSEN, and DMI.
This may be nothing more than a shift in wind pattern, changing sea ice concentration, only to shift pattern again in a few days, sending the curve downward again. But the air temperature is below freezing, according to DMI:
Mean Temperature above 80°N:
We will find out in a few days if this is really the end of melt season, or just a curious blip. Watch the WUWT sea ice page.
Gentlemen- Please forgive me for what may be a question which reveals my lack of understanding, but here goes. When I view the JAXA graph, I see a substantial slow down in ice retraction approximately 6-7 days ago (Aug 27-28). I understand that NSIDC/CHARCTIC data uses a 5 day rolling average which would show a somewhat delayed/smoothed result on their graph. That being said (per my NSIDC calculations below), I don’t see any significant change in ice extent % decline figures for NSIDC daily totals over the last 5 days (ranging from .52% to .68%). In fact, those decline averages for the last 5 days have increased since the Aug 29 update (.32%). When I view the graphed data for 2012, 2011 and 2007 for both IARC-JAXA and NSIDC, they are consistent with one another although NSIDC is somewhat smoothed due to the use of 5 day average inputs. Unlike those other three years, 2014 shows an apparent deviation to my untrained eyes. Am I missing something, or do we have a sudden deviation between JAXA and NSIDC graphing models?
Aug 2014 Daily Drop % vs. prior year %
15 6253 NULL 101.94%
16 6184 1.10% 101.88%
17 6108 1.23% 101.55%
18 6045 1.03% 101.39%
19 5989 0.93% 101.44%
20 5926 1.05% 101.23%
21 5866 1.01% 100.95%
22 5830 0.61% 101.39%
23 5810 0.34% 101.75%
24 5756 0.93% 101.41%
25 5717 0.68% 101.38%
26 5691 0.45% 101.63%
27 5649 0.74% 101.40%
28 5600 0.87% 101.49%
29 5582 0.32% 102.18%
30 5553 0.52% 102.59%
31 5516 0.67% 102.80%
Sep
1 5479 0.67% 102.83%
2 5442 0.68% 102.49%
3 5409 0.61% 102.11%
WUWT needs to add a measure of the actual commercial shipping volume using the over-hyped Northwest Passage. It was one of thousands of claims associated with ice free Arctic after all. This data could be tracked from Canadian permits for transit. A tracking value of zero is useful in this case along with the zero for maritime insurance offerings for this mythical shipping lane and zero for tonnage shipped. But then again there will be those that play up the percentage growth off a zero base in years when a ship does get through.
Man!! With the way numbers are handled by the CAGW crowd, if a single ice breaker ever makes it through the NWP and sells a single cigarette do the math: 1/0*100= infinite% increase in trade due to Global Warming!!!
The MV SILVER EXPLORER made it through the NW Passage east to west arriving in Nome, AK on Sept 1. She left Greenland Aug 8 and needed a Canadian icebreaker in the Franklin/Victoria Straits on or about Aug 22.
At 6,072 tons, she is more than eight time greater than all the sum of the other 8 boats making the transit this year. The M/V TRIDENT (a megayacht) is the second largest at 490 tons.
The Northern Passage was always a better route for commercial traffic, not so much wending through narrow straits between islands. Traffic is growing rapidly there, 555 permits this year, up from ~350 last year.
The bottom has not hit yet but is close. Anyone with a lick of sense can see that ice melt has to do with winds and currents, not the tiny amount of CO2 that is added to the atmosphere by fossil fuel burning. The combined word phrase, “atmospheric-oceanic teleconnections” should be in every grammar lesson.
The lowly weather reporter is beginning to look pretty damned smart compared to the likes of Gavin and Mike. Go with the evening news guy/gal meteorologist who gets paid for accurate weather predictions, not the trough slopping idiots who walk around all phobic about their own exhalent while living high on the hog off my wallet.
Why do most of the Arctic Sea Ice graphs only use the average up to 2006? I see the last graph on this page shows data up to 2010…why?
Surely it would not take too long to include the entire span of data from 79 all the way up to 2013….is there a solid reason why this is not done?
Is there any way to get a look at a graph showing all years built into the average?I am betting that 2014 on that graph would be right on the average of the whole.
@Greg, 9/3 12:58 pm
More than more than one small boat made the NW Passage this year. See summary, Sept 1 in a closed thread.
One east-west ship was a 6800 ton 132 passenger M/V SILVER EXPRESS.
Another currently west of Cambridge Bay is the M/V L’AUSTRAL (blog post from Sept 5)
Plus 3 sailing yachts.
And another 3 sailing yachts going West to East. along with a 480 ton mega yacht.
As for whether this proves climate change…. It probably does — for the colder.
Both big passenger liners needed big ice breakers blazing the trail.
The other boats made it in about a 7 day window when the one NW Passage Route out of 7 opened a narrow 100 km long lead through 70%+ ice. In fact, one of sail boats, GJOA, got its keep stuck on an ice ledge and had to be towed off by an expedition ice breaker.
Does this look like a Global Warming Northwest Passage to you? Me neither.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-To3sHVFZunI/VAyO9DqNtEI/AAAAAAAAtZM/m5Okdrg-Taw/s1600/BwYosebCYAI8tB1.jpg
It is fair to say that by Sept 11, at least two routes of the Northwest Passage are open.
Route 6 (the one all ships (I think) used this year, and Route 7 out the SE exit. Both depend upon the Ballot Strait.
http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS38CT/20140911180000_WIS38CT_0007862547.gif
I stumbled upon a list of Northwest Passages, and the defined routes.
From the NorthwestPassage2013 blog May 1, 2013
via NorthwestPassage2014 blog Sept 14, 2014
A very good YouTube video of a 2013 transit of the Northwest Passage in 2013
fount via: NorthwestPassage2014 blog Sept 13, 2014
The blog page title is:
If a Soviet ice classed ship requires a Canadian Coast Guard icebreaker in 2013 to navigate safely through Arctic ice, HOW WILL THE NON-ICE CLASSED CRYSTAL SERENITY GET THROUGH THE ARCTIC SAFELY? LOOKS LIKE A ROLL OF THE DICE?
A good question.
The video has some great scenes of shore line cliffs, ( There is some tectonic geology going on here!), more polar bears than you can shake a stick at (well, more polar bears than there are sticks), and splendid vies of the Larken Icebreaker as it breaks a way for the filming boat. Very good videography.
http://youtu.be/IsR-3rfN5-A
As probably the last post here before comments close, the is some interesting Northwest Passage 2014 news.
The S/V ARCTIC TERN announced it cleared the Arctic Circle and completed the westbound Passage in 2014. The problem was the skipper made the announcement at a latitude about 0.46 deg north of the circle, about 30 mi. I bet that’s a Tweet he wants back. A couple more hours and it is legit.
The S/V GJOA is out of the water at Cambridge Bay. The crew is moving to look after the Tug TANDBERG POLAR over the winter. They reported that Cambridge Bay “flash froze” last night. A local reported that it was the earliest he’d seen the bay frozen overnight in his 14 years of residency. It will melt in the day, but temperatures are dropping to freeze seawater. Is this the date of Ice minimum?
S/V NOVARA completed a Route 6 westbound Passage at 09/16/2014 23:33:42 PDT. Their GPS reported the right latitude of the Arctic Circle.
S/V DRIAN should be a day or two behind NOVARA, depending upon how much sightseeing they did.
A surprise boat, M/V LATITUDE seems on the verge of making a west bound passage. They left Greenland August 10th and are in Alaskan Arctic waters now.
The 490 ton megayacht M/V TRITON finished the east bound Route 6 Passage on Sept. 13.