It seems possible, given the sort of year it has been. This plot from DMI shows what appears to be the classic “end of melt season” turn in sea ice extent, a good 2-3 weeks before it usually occurs. Whether this is just a wiggle that may be followed by a downturn remains to be seen, but it certainly is interesting.
![icecover_current_new[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/icecover_current_new1.png?quality=75)
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php (via the WUWT sea ice page)
JAXA reports a turn as well:
So does NANSEN:
If this is truly a turn in the melt season, it will be the earliest one in the satellite record and will mean that the average sea ice extent for September will be well above 6 million square kilometers.
That will put a real twist in the ARCUS sea-ice forecasting contest.
For those who would hold up the NSIDC chart and say “see, not turning!”:
I’ll point out that the NSIDC graph displays a 5 day running average, and like the Titanic, is slow to turn before collisions with near real-time data like we see with JAXA, NANSEN, and DMI.
This may be nothing more than a shift in wind pattern, changing sea ice concentration, only to shift pattern again in a few days, sending the curve downward again. But the air temperature is below freezing, according to DMI:
Mean Temperature above 80°N:
We will find out in a few days if this is really the end of melt season, or just a curious blip. Watch the WUWT sea ice page.
This DMI temperature chart looks interesting…
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php
SST Anomaly
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_anomaly_NPS_ophi0.png
So according to the US Gubmint, all the open water around the ice pack is 4+ degrees warmer than normal. According to the DMI, that water is right around 273 K.
Somebody’s fibbin’…
@ur momisugly LeeHarvey
Exactly, “It is what It Is” ; )
Note: Pacific Salinity entering the Arctic is a Key factor for early ice growth and early ice melt.
@ur momisugly Lee Harvey…the NOAA/NCEP ssta charts are ‘unique’ when compared to all other sources of current ssta data.
@goldminor,
Which makes NOAA/NCEP ssta charts a Picasso moment after a few bottles of wine in the afternoon?
Say… now that you mention it, I could go for a few bottles of wine this afternoon!
“… all the open water around the ice pack is 4+ degrees warmer than normal. ”
How many times, there is no such thing as “normal” in climate variation.
What you have is the change relative to a totally arbitrary reference period. There is NOTHING to say that period is what represents “normal”.
All this talk of “normal” temperatures and temperature “anomalies” is just part of the spin.
@LeeHarvey
NOAA has a Long slog history of High Seas Treason and stupidity in Science. Don’t look for a good Time with NOAA. 😛
@Greg,
Head over to the science “Zone” and get educated — http://judithcurry.com/
ASK for Kim, she Will Teach You Well!
John, if you have some point to make how about saying it rather trying to be smart.
If there is something you think is wrong with my ice analysis or comments, quote what you disagree with and say why.
If there is something specific that you would like to direct me to at C Etc, by all means but I don’t feel inclined to spend the rest of my life trying to read it all and guess what you may be referring to.
@Greg
I’m uncertain if Kim would even bother to chat with the nonsense though she Loves a great metaphor.
Deliver a Great Ice Appendage and “She” may become “Amused”!
@ur momisugly Greg September 3, 2014 at 12:37 pm,
Artist, Scientist, and explorer, we all agree!
Forgive the past, enjoy the present, and DREAM!!!
Still have no idea what you are referring to or what your point is.
It seem that you don’t either.
@Greg September 3, 2014 at 12:37 pm
Forgive me! The Scene is convoluted, the context absurd, and the Science poorly defined!
Not sure we’re done yet… Crysophere has still lost a good ~250K in the last week. But it’s been fighting 2013 for the best performance since the 2007 plunge.
http://climatenerd.com/arctic-sea-ice-stats.php?source=UIUC
JAXA’s got the second smallest drop on record for the last 7 days. The smallest (2006) didn’t reach minimum for another three weeks.
There are still those trying to make a dash through the NW Passage.
http://cornellsailing.com/category/aventura-logs/
http://cornellsailing.com/2014/08/northwest-passage-gate-opens/
“…. having decided to abandon our attempt to transit the Northwest Passage due to
persistent unfavourable ice conditions.”
” Albeit late, the opening of the Northwest Passage does prove
that climate change is happening, as this phenomenon and the steady
shrinking of the Arctic polar ice cap are indicators that the global
climate is changing.”
The term cognitive dissonance springs to mind.
They seem to think that if just one small boat can sneak though by using all the latest technology and satellite observations, this will be will be irrefutable evidence of “unprecedented” change and final proof that all of this is due CO2.
Even if they don’t get though it will be “weird” enough to prove AGW.
God ( and CO2 ) works in wondrous ways….
Look PIOMAS update.
Cool, does it look anything like observations yet. It got badly blown out last year.
There is really only one year that took a big right turn and had little melt starting as early as late August and that was 1980 (the year of the lowest minimum). And this goes back to 1972 and includes the estimate from September 1964 recovered from Nimbus satellite pictures, so 42 years of record.
So it is unlikely that we are already at the minimum or really close to it but it is very slightly possible.
http://s28.postimg.org/ulsisfqy5/Jaxa_SIE_Trends_1964_1972_2014.png
One factor which might point to a very early minimum is the melt rate over 5 days. I’ve been using this measure since it is the shortest period of time where a degree of “persistence” shows up and does [not] seem to be random. The current 5 day melt rate is very low (and is closing in on record low rates in fact) and the persistence factor means it should last for several more days at least.
http://s28.postimg.org/m2t49ghf1/Jaxa_5_day_change_Sept_2_14.png
or that should say, does “not” seem to be random “from day to day”.
If you include Chaos [the theory and equation known] then “random” doesn’t exist?
You are basically plotting the 5d running mean, an awful filter which will be full of spurious artefacts. Even if it takes out a lot, you can not have confidence that what is left is meaningful.
I found that even a 6d gaussian ( roughly twice as long ) was not sufficient to get stable results nor to produce a single zero-crossing in rate of change at either end.
@Bill Illis September 3, 2014 at 11:27 am,
The Arctic is The Amazing mercury in a tube. A “LOOK” at what “IS” and is “NOT”.
Find the research studies and you may discover “IT” is “Still Unknown”….
John, could you try to avoid posting until the mushrooms wear off? It’s getting rather hard to follow you.
Have a nice trip , see you next fall.
OK. OK! I will refrain from adding ice cubes to my gin ‘n tonics until we are certain the ice machine is properly producing ice again….. ( sigh )
The “ice” starts in ENSO, the brew finds its way to the Poles. The only gin in this is Jin as it always starts and ends in this region!
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/09/16/on-identifying-inter-decadal-variation-in-nh-sea-ice/
Look at the timing of that spike in 1997. Does not look like it “brewed” out of the 1997/98 El Nino.
You may get away with saying it was coincident with the beginning of the ENSO event as a global phenomenon. There may be a case for it have first manifested in the Arctic.
It’s also far too sharp to be something that brewed in ENSO and then spread up. The mixing, the lags , the time for the ice to build up would all have spread the peak to be much broader.
Look at the 98 El Nino in SST and it is far broader than effect in Arctic ice. If anything that would suggest the causality is the other way around.
@Greg,
The “ICE” is ENSO. It simply can not occur in the Arctic without input from “Fresh” Pacific input via the Bering Straight.
If you “wish” to claim man made input, then start WHERE It begins!!!
Good luck with that “notion”, there is No basis to claim the scale of change is understood!
joelobryan September 3, 2014 at 9:48 am
last 14 days
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_2weeks_anom.png
Summer
http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/ncep_cfsr_noram_t2m_jja_anom.png
august was cooler than normal there
To quote the late, great Sam Kinison
You live in a DESERT..Moooooove
in good fun, stay cool
LOL, +10 if I could rate a comment!
Oddly and Amazingly, you predicted this event months ago.
What convinced you to make the prediction?
Salinity has been my Muse for Arctic Ice… I’d love to understand your Muse for these periodic events!!
Wish I could see the images you posted, but clicking on them get me a 403 “access forbidden” error.
It hasn’t stopped melting, it’s just paused ….. 😉
/sarc (if needed)
It hasn’t stopped, it’s just chilling out.
It is not a pause, it is a “hiatus”,
Just 19 minutes ago Business Insider published an article that said the Arctic Sea Ice is not getting better in spite of the data. It also says the high level of Antarctica Sea Ice can be explained and is meaningless. I wish we could jump ahead 10 years so all of these excuses would be a thing of the past. Natural variability looks better all the time.
Link?
http://www.businessinsider.com/arctic-sea-ice-grows-but-still-shrinking-2014-9
http://s3.amazonaws.com/camera-images.sentine.org/22-08_1-6cb727c94ec074c74fe175703c9b5da3.jpg
We might have an early ice build up in Alberta, but I still think the arctic ice area will bottom out mid September.
Cooling in the hemisphere north.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=27.70,106.35,553
Remember the Arctic-Antarctic tango, Antarctic’s been plummetting so naturally Arctic goes up as that satellite polarising filter is tu-u-u-urning…..
Polar see-saw is not a strict opposite effect, though they ofen seem to be going in opposite directions, it is a loose relationship.
However, if you lag the changes in Arctic melting season it lines up a lot better than inverting.
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=969
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=965
Yet another pointer that climate change _starts_ in Arctic.
oops, finger trouble, what I meant was
http://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2014/06/ant_arctic_melting_season_lag.png
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=965
Greg, nice chart, but the Arctic-Antarctic tango is not seasonal, rather, it is a *daily* effect — the satellite polarizer is turned so the Arctic anomaly goes one way and the Antarctic goes the other way, every day. In the last week the Antarctic anomaly has plunged and so the Arctic anomaly rises. The Arctic is seeming to lag the Antarctic by a couple days this time, but asymmetrical smoothing rules could explain that.
Interesting hypothesis, Do you have anything more concrete than your handwaving description and assertions?
For example, if I wanted to check how much of my graph could be attributed to you polariser explanation how would I go about it?
I doubt the daily chart would have much to say about the seasonal one, A daily chart would be a first derivative one where you compare the slopes of the Arctic and Antarctic graphs. There should be a strong correlation of their having opposite slopes on the same day. I’ve been watching this happen for years now so it’s ho-hum for me and why I call this “dial-turning”. I think the reason for this is because they’re using an algorithm which minimizes the global sea ice total, thus the Arctic and Antarctic trade off.
You would make a daily chart, smoothed by (say) 3 days, then compare their opposing slopes, so a first derivative function. You could probably squeeze a year or two into such a chart. Would love to see it.
So you have not actually run the numbers on this, it’s just “ho-hum”.
It should be pretty easy.
Here’s filter you could use:
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/2014/07/13/989/
Take the first diference of the data points for the derivative
Nice, multiplatorm plotting program at gnuplot.info
You find links to daily data sources if you follow my links under my graphs.
Let us know when you have something more convincing than ho-hum.
Sorry – the above photo is from today on Highway 22 in southern Alberta from the AMA road cams.
You didn’t have to rub it in, you know?
I light a fire every afternoon in my backyard with hopes of warming Calgary…it is not working
OK. That really gave me a belly laugh.
LeeHarvey, September 3, 2014 at 11:02 am
“So according to the US Gubmint, all the open water around the ice pack is 4+ degrees warmer than normal. According to the DMI, that water is right around 273 K.
Somebody’s fibbin’…”
No, the DMI chart is temperature, the NOAA chart is temperature anomaly.
Right… and if the temperature is zero and the anomaly is correct at +4, then ‘normal’ would be -4… or frozen solid.
Again, they can’t both be right.
Edge of the ice is minus 2c water under ice is about the same.
Dmi is not measurements
Comparing estimates from two different estimating
Approaches is hard.
Suggest you stick to reading the Sunday comics
Sunday comics? Oooooh… scathing!
Apparently you are correct, though, that comparing estimates from two different estimating approaches is hard… thus explaining why NOAA seems unable to get their data to correlate with anyone else’s.
Ice build up on the shore line of Borrow, AK. This is just one area of the arctic.
http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/webcam-uaf-barrow-seaice-images/current/image
Air temp is presently 34 F in Barrow. Today’s high is forecast to be 35.
Wind is 25 mph so the wind chill is 23 F. This is why the ice along the shore.
I think the wind has shifted to the north, and is bringing ice south. Scattered ice, only 3% coverage, will not show up on many maps, and usually appears as “open water,” however when it is blown south to Barrow it can go no further, and builds up along the shore. I think the higher concentrations of ice are still well to the north.
Oooh, nasty misconception, Susann, wind chill does not form ice. Wind chill is relevant only to objects of different temperatures (such as warm people and cold air) and gauges how fast thermal equivalence is reached between them. Windy air cools us faster than still air. But for objects at the air temperature, there is no “wind chill”. Hope this helps.
Nope NZ WIlly, wind chill is the feel like temperature of exposed skin.
Or perhaps Susann meant that the 25 mph wind is coming from the north or east and blowing the ice into shore…
Not ice, surf.
High Surf Advisory
Statement as of 11:28 AM AKDT on September 03, 2014
… High surf advisory remains in effect until 6 PM akdt this
evening…
A high surf advisory remains in effect until 6 PM akdt this
evening.
* Waves and surf… northwest winds 25 to 35 mph will generate
waves as high as 8 feet not far offshore. Waves will diminish
some as they break onshore. Sea levels are expected to be as
high as one half foot above normal.
* Timing… high surf is expected to diminish early tonight.
* Impacts… localized minor beach erosion may occur.
Precautionary/preparedness actions…
A high surf advisory means that localized beach erosion is
expected. Precautions should be taken to protect property.
http://classic.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=99723
Speaking of winds, no cyclone in August this year, as in 2012 & 2007.
With mean air temperatures at about -3° C and falling sea surface temperatures, melting season will come to an early end; I bet! What’s about the Northwest Passage? Seems to be rather icy?
Gores Fairytale of an ice-free arctic debunked!
Those that made it through the NW Passage with icebreaker support will still call it global warming.
…and those which chose to journey will call it Fun and nothing more!
Ice shrinks now because of compaction and export.
Not Temps
yes.
next question?
The other day I visited a lab who do x-ray micro-CT 3D imaging of sea ice. Here’s what sea ice looks like with micro-tomography:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_RXGJAF_XL5TnUwMHJuWEdDeFk/edit?usp=sharing
The white lines are seams of salt crystals extruded when the water freezes. Air bubbles are also present. Sometimes the bubbles and salt lines seem continuous.
Question for Scott or anyone who knows. . . why is there so much more open water along 140 degrees East as compared to 140 degrees West Longitude? At the 140 degree East latitude there is ice only to about the 10 degrees latitude line, while at 140 degrees West there is ice extending nearly to 40 degrees latitude. . . . . .
Change in circulation and salinity
Ben – not sure why you’d ask me, but a variety of things could and probably have contributed. What Mosher just said certainly can contribute. Insolation, wind, and other types of weather all play roles. IIRC, the Siberian side of the Arctic had a very warm winter, so the ice there likely started considerably thinner at the beginning of the melt season. You can see the changes in the Arctic ice starting in 2012 up through the end of July in this animated GIF (to keep from bogging down the thread’s load time with animation, I’ve removed “.gif” from the end of the link, so add it):
https://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/arcticice2012-20141
Note that the week/year are in the lower left. That shows ice age, which is a proxy for thickness. Another good reference is the link below, which is a Navy model output for ice thickness for the last year. Again, it’s big and I don’t want to slow down the loading of this thread too much, so add “.gif” to the end of the link:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim365d
The two things to watch are the position of the ice at the end of last year’s melt season and the position of the thicker ice at the start of this year’s.
Hope that helps,
-Scott
Scott — I asked you because you were the one that posted the nice graphic that I noticed the difference in the ice extent. These two other graphics are superb. . . thanks!! I guess part of the explanation might be the “polar vortex”. . . .
The data hasn’t been adjusted yet. Stay tuned…
Well, here in Vancouver Labour Day weekend was overcast and cool. The last week of August was also cool, although Sunday (Aug31) was nice. September is usually the best month of the year in Vancouver: warm and sunny days, cool nights. This morning started overcast and cool, but the clouds have cleared and it’s sunny in the afternoon, although still quite cool. I wouldn’t be the least surprised if September this year is cooler than normal. Nature just seems to know that Victoria Day weekend is the beginning of summer (although this year not so much) and Labour Day weekend is the end of summer (in spades this year!).
PIOMAS is showing an anomaly of -4500 km3 this month, up from an anomaly of -9000 km3 in 2012. Looks like a recovery on the way to me.
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png
What do you think PIOMAS is ?
It is a _model_ of sea ice volume. A model that failed to predict the 50% increase that happended last year.
Like models that have failed to anticipate the ‘pause’ in global warming, it is of no use in it’s current state come back in 5 or 10 years and tell us when it works.
Wait until Cryosat2 data comes out to see what the best estimation of ice volume is.
Not until the sun is gone or mostly gone, what a strange question. Arctic ice varies! Good records only since 1979, pointless to speculate about this particular season, scientifically at least. To the Great Unwashed, also known as “Low-Information Voters,” might make a difference for maybe one 24-hour News Cycle, but this is not a meaningful story in any way to knowing individuals.
Amundsen got through the Northwest Passage in 1906 on a small boat with 8 horsepower. How many have done it since? Does it mean anything at all except to foolish non-thinkers?
Amundsen took three years though, there have been about 200 transits since. About 50 of those were prior to 1990 which were mainly icebreakers.
> dipchip
> September 3, 2014 at 8:54 am
>
> Here are the daily changes in NH ice cover in sq. Km.
> per JAXA data for the past 15 days ending sept 2nd.
>
> -60153
> -62752
> -61959
> -49621
> -47635
> -54083
> -34281
> -25253
> -14682
> -20646
> -25829
> -2435
> +2730
> -5180
> -12925
September 3rd is now in. Another drop…
-20701
So it doesn’t look like we’re quite there yet.
Arctic sea ice volume anomaly, according to PIOMAS, is calculated to have reduced to less than what we had in 2009, for the first time since then.
Considering the Arctic sea ice environment, I still think that DMI’s “old graph” that (unlike the other graphs) displays ice area with 30 % ice concentration gives a more reliable picture. DMI still keeps updating that graph too and it is a pity that Anthony no longer includes it in the otherwise wonderful sea ice section: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php
Based on this graph, it seems that the Arctic sea ice is back to the 2005 levels when it comes to the minimum, like last year.