Bastardi: warm water brings potential for East Pacific hurricanes

Joe Bastardi writes:

Joe D’Aleo and I have noted that one of the analogs showing up is 1976 with the type of ENSO coming on. In fact, with Tom Downs analogs thrown in, for winter, 76-77 got ranked 2nd as of Aug 10.  We look each month and update.  But  that was one heck of a year for Mexican tropical cyclone hits. We were saying back in spring, the interior  southwest was going to get wet as this pattern evolved and it has, right in the heart of the perma-drought area and back west.  But the September-Oct rain idea was because we have felt the SE pac would be the site of recurring tropical cyclones that can hit Mexico and dump a lot of rain.

The winter went wild that year, we all remember ( the winter of the ice age scare) and for good reason  the SST  by December was similar to what is forecasted this  year  warm water off the west coast and the ENSO event.

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The CFSV2  for December ( what ups the ante is even more warm water in the ne pac!)

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That very warm water off the coast of Mexico forecasted for the winter, is there now

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The  1976 season had   FOUR   HITS  on the Mexican coast

Kathleen

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Liza

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Madeline

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Naomi

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We can see the negatives trying to evolve in that area later next week and beyond

gfs5ensemble_bastardi

The pattern is such that this area will be of concern going forth in Sep. and Oct.  So if ( when???)  it does occur,  the AGW propagandists have been warned.. we are setting it up already to a similar pattern evolution  that in the  following winter people wound up screaming ice age.  We did it with Arthur, so let see if there are a couple of recurves that make headlines, if they take the bait.  ( They will, they have no qualms about walking into traps, no matter how foolish)

They scream about storms out in the middle of nowhere, so certainly the trap is set for them if it occurs.  It happened before, and there is a good chance its about to happen again.

Its a dirty job, but someone has to do it

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Sean Peake
August 28, 2014 8:21 am

Be werry werry qwiet. We’re hunting warmists

M Courtney
August 28, 2014 8:21 am

Hope you’re wrong.
Nothing personal.

August 28, 2014 8:25 am

When does Cali see rain hit the Radar? Wells are going dry, and water is being hand delivered to homes in the valley now. The biggest question for anyone in the Valley is simply…
WHEN will it rain again?

latecommer2014
Reply to  Jack H Barnes
August 28, 2014 8:41 am

I would suggest it depends on how far north the storm hits and how it holds together after landfall. We have had rain from such storms in the past, but mostly in the south. I believe or best hope is for a late year El Niño .

Eric
Reply to  Jack H Barnes
August 28, 2014 9:00 am

I could be very wrong here, but I would think if that warm water off Alaska holds we could see some very wet storms rolling through CA in Fall/Winter.
not a meteorologist..just born/bred in CA for 42 years 😉

Reply to  Eric
August 28, 2014 9:06 am

Latecommer, hopefully at least one of Joes Hurricanes wanders norther and sends some moisture bands beyond just Southern Cal.
Eric, I agree with you that there is a possible setup for some wet weather this fall. We need it both in the mountains but also the valley/delta. I was on the Oregon coast for two years of 100+ inches per year, moved back to Sacramento area and someone turned off the water works. I think its about 10-12 inches in the last 18 months or so. A bit of a change, that is for sure.

August 28, 2014 8:36 am

Thanks, Joe. This is good information.
And …
Colorado State University Forecast of Atlantic Hurricane Activity from August 28-September 10, 2014
(.pdf, 28 August 2014) [two-week forecast]:
We believe that the next two weeks will be characterized by activity at below-average levels (less than 70 percent of climatology). The average ACE accrued during the period from 1981-2010 from August 28-September 10 was 24 units, and consequently, our forecast for the next two weeks is for 17 or fewer ACE units to be generated.
The below-average forecast is due to several factors. Hurricane Cristobal is estimated to generate 2-4 ACE units before undergoing extra-tropical transition in the next couple of days. Three areas are currently being watched for development in the next few days by the National Hurricane Center, but only one is given a moderate chance of development in the next five days. Long-range models do not indicate any other significant development chances in the 1-2 week timeframe.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Documents/Two_Week_Forecasts/august_28_2014.pdf

Matthew R Marler
Reply to  Andres Valencia
August 28, 2014 10:01 am

Andres Valencia, thank you for the link.

joelobryan
Reply to  Andres Valencia
August 28, 2014 10:10 am

Each of those EastPac tropical storms is more El Nino heat being sent back to space.

Latitude
August 28, 2014 8:49 am

We’re all laughing down here about all the Atlantic Invests that have had “potential for development” that have gone pisst….and that consistent 75 mph on that one HURRICANE in the Atlantic….I mean what, they found one 75 mph gust and named it!

AlecM
August 28, 2014 8:50 am

Softly, softly, catchee warmist……

Dave
August 28, 2014 8:55 am

Too late now, and I’m all for trapping the CAGW wackadoodles in their phony science, lies, hypocrisy, and ridiculous claims. But I’m thinking that if you’re out to trap someone, it’s best not to let them know what’s coming.

Reply to  Dave
August 28, 2014 9:25 am

Depends on the intellectual acumen of the “trappees”. In this case they can watch as a trap is built and set, and they will still walk into it.
I believe Forrest Gump had a saying which would be appropriate right now.

August 28, 2014 10:06 am

Oh boy! I’m sitting here in the southern Baja. We’ve already had unusual amounts of rain for the summer season according to the locals. I’ll be here through Sept and Oct. Here in La Paz there are no storm sewers and the roads turn into rivers during just a 20 minute thunderstorm. Can’t imagine what a hurricane would do…

Rolf
Reply to  J. Philip Peterson
August 28, 2014 7:42 pm

Has happened before, check the history and you will know. Also beware if you have a yacht, not many safe places really.

Bloke down the pub
August 28, 2014 10:53 am

Too often, it is ignored by some, that average rainfall includes rain that falls in deluges. Those who like to believe in a previous benign climate, seem to think that all rain should come as a nice steady drizzle.

Pathway
August 28, 2014 10:58 am

Battlin’ Bastardi sets the trap.

Keith
August 28, 2014 12:03 pm

Actually, mother nature set the trap

Gil Russell
August 28, 2014 12:28 pm

Conditions are similar to 1992 when hurricane Iniki the largest recorded hurricane hit Hawaii and flooding of the Guadalupe River in Silicon Valley left a new high watermark on buildings in Alviso. Live long enough you get to see everything twice, live even longer and you’ll see it thrice…,

Auto
August 28, 2014 1:20 pm

Joe
“The winter went wild that year, we all remember ” – hey, you’re taking about 1976-1977. I would advise you that although a cipher like me can remember that [and the scorching 1976 drought in [at least the southern]UK of 1975-6], President Obama was but 15 in 1976; David Cameron was just ten that same year, and our [UK] Deputy Prime Minister, Nick Clegg is some months younger that (young) Mr. Cameron.
They m I g h t remember that. Or not, too, I guess.
Me – I fear cooling. Adding CO2 is adding plant food, making feeding our population less hard.
Auto

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Auto
August 28, 2014 2:07 pm
Joel O'Bryan
August 28, 2014 1:39 pm

The extratropical remains of Cristobal will smack Iceland this Sunday afternoon. That would make for some interesting weather if Bárðarbunga cuts loose.

Editor
August 28, 2014 2:23 pm

76/77 was a rather chilly winter in many areas. When the Ohio River froze over, coal barges got stuck and Ohio had to shutdown schools and factories to keep electricity and natural gas flowing. (Amish school kept on working fine.)
77/78 was rather snowy in New England. The Blizzard of ’78 is still our metric. A different Blizzard of ’78 hit Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio and is still their metric….
Back to the frozen Ohio River:
http://blogs.courier-journal.com/watchdogearth/2013/01/05/back-in-the-day-the-ohio-river-froze-over/
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/lmk/?n=ohio_river_freeze

Editor
Reply to  Ric Werme
August 28, 2014 5:23 pm

> Ric Werme
> August 28, 2014 at 2:23 pm
> 76/77 was a rather chilly winter in many areas.
“In 1977, the worst winter in a century struck the United States. Arctic cold gripped the midwest for weeks on end. Great blizzards paralyzed cities of the Northeast. One desparate night in Buffalo, 8 people froze to death in marooned cars.”

Toronto set a record of sorts. The daily high was below freezing for 46 consecutive days from December 26, 1976 to February 9, 1977, inclusive. See
http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&StationID=5097&Year=1976&Month=12
http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&StationID=5097&Year=1977&Month=1
http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&StationID=5097&Year=1977&Month=2

Gunga Din
Reply to  Ric Werme
August 29, 2014 1:31 pm

I was in a rural area in west central Ohio. We sent out a front-end loader, a city type snowplow and a 5th wheel pickup to rescue some people from a farm 5 miles away. It took them 8 hours to make it 1/4 of a mile down the road. We finally sent out snow mobiles. The drivers said some of the drifts across the road were 20-30 feet high.
Here are some pictures and other info.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/iln/research/Blizzard1978/blizzard78.php
I’d rather not see a repeat.

Gunga Din
Reply to  Gunga Din
August 29, 2014 1:33 pm

PS If I remember correctly, the Northeast blizzard of 78 was a different storm system that hit a week to 10 later.

Editor
Reply to  Gunga Din
August 30, 2014 3:00 pm

Odd, I don’t see a chance to reply to your 1:33 pm update below. Yes different storms, that was in my comment. The northeast got some rain and maybe some freezing rain that helped knock down the snow piles from yet another storm a week before. That storm set a record for 24 hour snowfall in Boston, the record lasted a few weeks.
I touch on both blizzards at http://wermenh.com/blizz78a.html

Editor
August 28, 2014 5:04 pm

Warm water is a “necessary but not sufficient” condition for hurricane formation. Rising air (convergence) is also required, whereas sinking air (divergence) hurts hurricane development. See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml for 200 hPA (aka 200 mb) vertical velocity potential anomalies. Executive summary…
* green contours == rising air == increased chance of hurricane development
* brown contours == sinking air == decreased chance of hurricane development

Bill Jamison
August 28, 2014 5:21 pm

I certainly hope that we don’t have a repeat of the winter of 76/77 here in California. That would be disastrous due to the severity of the drought already. Another exceptionally dry winter will be a real problem.
I remember how much damage Kathleen caused in the SoCal mountains with roads and bridges and railroad tracks being washed out along the San Diego / Imperial County line.

Richard G
Reply to  Bill Jamison
August 28, 2014 5:52 pm

I was in Southern California for Kathleen. The heaviest rains seemed to be in the Imperial Valley. We were in quite a drought then and much of the rainfall ran out to sea. I don’t believe it did anything for central or northern areas.

Reply to  Bill Jamison
August 28, 2014 7:16 pm

To my senses the weather here in No California still smells like drought. It feels just like it did last year at this time only a little cooler. I wonder though, a rift eruption has started in Iceland. Would volcanic material lead to more rain?

Richard G
Reply to  goldminor
August 28, 2014 8:18 pm

goldminor, I hear you on the smells like drought. I’m planning for a cold winter in U.S. I fear that might leave the Sierra snowpack below normal again this winter.

Mike Maguire
August 28, 2014 6:42 pm

I used the Winter of 1976/77 as my analog for last WInter, starting in December.
You can view twice daily reanalysis data weather maps(starting in 1948) by going to this link:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/
If you want to view maps from the Winter of 76/77, just put a starting date in 1976 11 1 Don’t worry about the cycle and I prefer not to use the loop(advancing 1 day at a time(or 12 hours) allows you to analyze at your pace and go back and forth to see how unique features evolved.
I have recently been looking at late August/early Sept 1974 as this was the all time worst damaging freeze event(s) which occurred on numerous consecutive nights in the US Corbelt.
Also mid Sept 1995, the other noteworthy damaging freeze in the Cornbelt. Since the 2nd one was 2 weeks later in the growing season(though the soybeans were planted late and weeks from maturity in 1995) it did not do nearly as much damage as the 1974 freezes.
Those “Great Labor Day Freezes” were catastrophic to corn and soybean crops that were far from maturity in many places in 1974.
The pattern so far in August has been the exact opposite of what would be needed for an early freeze. However, in the week 2 period, there may be a reconfiguration in the atmosphere with an upper ridge possibly trying to build towards Alaska and higher latitudes/back towards Siberia.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/z500anom_f288_nh.html
Should that happen, cold air will have an opportunity to come from N. Asia/N.Alaska and pool into N. Canada.
In order to transport that cold air southward, a trough to the south/beneath the high would need to greatly amplify to create meridional(north to south flow) and bodily transport the air mass from high latitudes to the middle latitudes.
I’m just watching for early signs at this time, not forecasting it. A freeze event in mid-Sept would cause corn and soybean prices to spike much higher.
Currently, even if we were able to transport an air mass directly from N.Canada, it’s just too warm………above freezing up there, to cause a freeze here. Factoring in moderation and wet soils in the Midwest, an air mass from this source region would not likely get us close to freezing even with ideal radiational cooling.
http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=na&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar
http://www.weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur&region=nc&expanddiv=hide_bar
In the 10-14 day time frame however, temperatures in N.Canada should be well down in the 20’s, maybe some teens.
Bring that air down bodily and it would have some potential for frost or even sub freezing lows, especially with our longer nights. Again, wet/moist soils in most locations in the Midwest/Cornbelt would keep temps, maybe 5+ degrees warmer with ideal cooling(clear sky, calm winds) than if soils were very dry(like 1995 and 1974).
Freezes in Sept that cause widespread damage occur only around 5% of the time, so it’s rare.
Both the corn and soybean crops are headed towards a record/near record production. The weather has been very cooperative, featuring one of the coolest July’s in recorded history.
Additionally, since 2010, CO2 has gone up another 10 ppm which has added another 2% to soybean growth as well as other crops having similar benefits
+this year.

Gary Pearse
August 28, 2014 6:54 pm

76/77. Have we forgotten about 2013/2014 winter? Re the rain in S. California with hurricane Kathleen, when are we going to just ignore the Lilliputians who fight against dams for water storage. The droughts are indeed man-made when a prone area has loons preventing storage projects. Build some reservoirs for goodness sake. You’ll even reduce the severity of mudslides, erosion of roads, etc with unrestrained run-off. Hey you would even recharge some thirsty aquifers.

pat
August 28, 2014 8:38 pm

for Joe & Anthony:
2 pages: 28 Aug: New Scientist: Catherine Brahic: And now the weather, featuring climate change blame
A new technique connecting individual weather events with the impact of greenhouse gas emissions could bring climate change into everyday weather reports…
“Explaining why we’re getting the weather we’re getting should be part of the job of meteorological offices, as well as predicting it,” says Myles Allen at the University of Oxford. Allen was part of a team that carried out pioneering research that examined the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on weather…
In the new set-up, a real-world seasonal forecast driven by data on current sea-surface temperatures will be run alongside a simulated “no global warming” seasonal forecast, in which greenhouse gas emissions have been stripped out…
A main obstacle to bringing this kind of powerful climate modelling into standard weather forecasts is computing power. Models must be run many thousands of times to obtain statistically significant results, which requires expensive supercomputers…
Ultimately, though, the key contribution of this work may be to get through to a general public for whom climate change has long been an abstract concept. By showing that what’s going on outside someone’s window is directly linked to climate change, researchers hope it will become obvious that what they are saying isn’t just a load of hot air.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22329842.400-and-now-the-weather-featuring-climate-change-blame.html

ren
August 29, 2014 4:18 am

Joel O’Bryan August 28, 2014 at 1:39 pm
The extratropical remains of Cristobal will smack Iceland this Sunday afternoon. That would make for some interesting weather if Bárðarbunga cuts loose.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/08/31/1200Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-11.96,59.89,1581

pochas
August 29, 2014 4:35 am

The models are broken, so its GIGO no matter how many times you run them. I know darn well there are many people smart enough to fix them. But it’s such a beautiful scam.

Mike Maguire
August 29, 2014 8:50 am

Thanks pat,
“Allen was part of a team that carried out pioneering research that examined the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on weather…
In the new set-up, a real-world seasonal forecast driven by data on current sea-surface temperatures will be run alongside a simulated “no global warming” seasonal forecast, in which greenhouse gas emissions have been stripped out”
So they are going to take weather models that show rapidly deteriorating skill in week 2 and and dial in theorized(in this case wild guesses regarding what sea-surface temperatures might be) to make seasonal forecasts and compare them with the currently, not very reliable seasonal forecasts.
Wow. What a great new playground for a CAGW believer to use a model to show what is NOT happening in the real world(other than an increase in heavy downpours) which is an increase in extreme weather.
This makes sense……………..if you realize that after the past 15 years, the actual skill of global climate models is being exposed and this new strategy can never be falsified or verified in the real world.
You just plug in whatever numbers you want to represent your theory of what the conditions will be like under X amount of global warming and there will NEVER be any reconciliation with reality/observations because it is always a theorized forecast under conditions that do not exist and this alternate universe will never be verified or falsified.
A dream come true!

redc1c4
August 29, 2014 4:15 pm

76-77 was the peak drought here in #Failifornia… i remember it being pretty much non-stop Santa Anas all January.
77-78 was when the rain came back.
as for this year, this summer has been almost exactly like last summer, so my unscientifically based prediction is that SoCal will get this winter what it got last winter: hardly any rain at all…

Joe Ybarra
September 1, 2014 12:54 am

The waters off Southern California and Baja are exceptionally warm right now, and the yellowtail bite is absolutely unbelievable now. Not necessarily a scientific indicator, but in my experience this means California is in for a relatively wet winter.

Bill Jamison
September 3, 2014 2:41 pm

A week after this was posted and TS Norbert is forecast to strengthen to hurricane level very quickly and move up the coast of Baja before turning more northeast and into Baja and possibly southern California – just like Kathleen!
This one bears watching!

Bill Jamison
September 3, 2014 6:51 pm

Norbert is now a hurricane. One difference between Kathleen and the model projections for Norbert is that Norbert would stay out over water much longer than Kathleen. If Norbert tracks farther north than forecast, even by 50 to 100 miles, it could result in serious flooding for San Diego and Imperial County in southern California.

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