Opinion by Dr. Tim Ball
History is the devil’s scripture. Lord Byron
The game of history is usually played by the best and the worst over the heads of the majority in the middle. Eric Hoffer
History is past politics; and politics present history. John Seeley
The historian looks backward. In the end he also believes backward.” Friedrich Nietzsche
Someone to Blame
The Great Irish Potato famine began in 1845 and had severe social impact for some six years. Historians tell the story in many ways, but most assign blame to a few humans, particularly for failure to deal with the great loss of life and hardships of mass migration. There was a proportionally worse famine in 1741, but that is virtually unknown. Did the 1845 event get more attention because it provided a point of attack for the social atmosphere of the time? Some attributed overall weather conditions and harvest failures for the social unrest that gave rise to Marxism: 1848 is known as the “Year of Revolutions”.
The years 1848 and 2011 both followed poor harvests, a spike in food prices and an industrial recession. What we remember as the Irish Potato Famine was in fact a blight that struck the whole of Western Europe between 1845 and 1846. This was compounded by a devastatingly bad harvest in the latter year. It was impossible to meet the demand of a vastly increased population.
The same environment engendered the ideas of Malthus (Six Essays on population published between 1798 and 1826) and Darwin (Origin of Species published 1859). The quote indicates that parallels are already being made between then (1848) and now (2011). David Archibald posed a similar question in his article, “Two years to a 1740-type event? Will those using global warming for a political agenda switch to the threat of famine due to drought? Will the blame shift from, the rich and powerful causing the event, to their failure to deal with the crisis?
History shows that leadership reaction to crisis is always inadequate. Any chance of a better reaction is in a better understanding of the cause of the crisis – in this case, weather mechanisms. Government’ preparing for warming when cooling is the trend, has already reduced the chances of proper reaction. There is good news; technology has vastly improved our ability to recover after the events.
What caused the failure of the potato crop in 1845? What were the weather conditions for both events? What weather and climate lessons are in the two events? Archibald references Briffa and Jones (2006) conclusion that “climate might vary more than is commonly accepted.” An interesting conclusion, considering they were very involved at the time in the “hockey stick” claim of very low variability for some 600 years.
Food Supply
Hunger is one word that can summarize human history. People were almost always hungry or starving. It is still true for too much of the world, but completely unnecessary. Malthus misdirected the focus with his claim that population growth would exceed increases in food production. The Club of Rome and its offspring, Agenda 21, perpetuate and expand the misdirection by claiming overpopulation is overusing, abusing and causing shortage of all resources.
The world is not overpopulated. There is no shortage of food. It’s estimated we produce enough every year to feed 26 billion people. However, thanks to Malthus and neo-Malthusians, we ignore the real problems that are adequate storage and effective distribution.
Storage
Once we switched from hunter/gatherer to sedentary agriculture, the ability to store food over the non-growing season became a force for invention and innovation. Just one example was the entire spice industry, primarily used to preserve and make food palatable. It drove commerce for buyer and seller across the world. As one person wrote,
In its day, the spice trade was the world’s biggest industry: it established and destroyed empires, led to the discovery of new continents, and in many ways helped lay the foundation for the modern world.
Estimates vary, but about 60-70 percent of the food grown in developing nations never makes it to the table. The figure is 30-40 percent for the developed world. Most of the difference is due to refrigeration. Maybe a measure of how little knowledge or importance is applied to these facts, is that few know the name Clarence Birdseye II. Refrigeration also helped the distribution problems, especially when it combined with containerization.
Modern container shipping celebrated its 50th anniversary in 2006. Almost from the first voyage, use of this method of transport for goods grew steadily and in just five decades, containerships would carry about 60% of the value of goods shipped via sea.
Some crops were adopted and adapted for their relative ease of production and storage. These characteristics were well known about the potato in South America and gave its appearance in Europe such an impact. It is likely that the cool damp conditions of the Little Ice Age (LIA) pushed grain prices up, providing an opportunity for rapid adoption of the potato. Libby’s study of grain prices for four European countries illustrates the jump.
Figure 1.
Source: H.H Lamb, Climate, Past, Present and future, Vol.2. 1977.
The peasants could achieve a great yield in poor soil and store them for the entire winter. Ireland adopted and became more dependent on the potato than most other countries. It likely caused the surge in population as the census figures show.
1821: 6,801,827
1831: 7,767,401
1841: 8,175,124
The population declined to 6.6 million by 1851. The pattern of population for the Republic is shown in Figure 2.
There were famines again in 1877-78, 1885 and 1889-90 that are reflected in the increased decline of population in Figure 2.
The famine of 1740-41 is described on the cover of the book Arctic Ireland as,
“…more intense, more bizarre and proportionately more deadly, yet most history books acknowledge it with no more than a line or two in passing.”
The book is subtitled, “The extraordinary story of the GREAT FROST and FORGOTTEN FAMINE of 1740-41”, which underscores the different weather conditions of the 1740 and 1845 famines. In 1845, the weather did not directly kill people; rather, the cool damp conditions were favorable for the potato blight. Overdependence on a single crop made the people vulnerable. Other countries, like Norway, also suffered the potato blight, but were not as dependent. The Irish Potato famine was coincident with poor crop conditions throughout Europe. The 1840s are called the “the Hungry Forties” as cool wet summers combined with moderate wet winters. The combination causes harvest failures and malnourished people who are vulnerable to diseases that survive and even flourish through the winter. These conditions are similar to those predominant in the 14th century that Barbara Tuchman documented so well in her book a Distant Mirror: The Calamitous 14th Century.
In 1740 the world was just emerging from the nadir of the Little Ice Age in the 1680s. As the author David Dickson notes,
On the eve of the crisis there had perhaps been some complacency as to the power of exceptional whether to upset normal life. Winters had been relatively benign over the previous thirty years. No one, not even those with distant memories of the terrible winters of the 1680s, was prepared for what became known as the Great Frost of 1740 or for “bliain an dir” the year of slaughter of 1741.
The 1740 weather illustrates what happens when events combine. We organized the conference on the impact of the Indonesian volcano Tambora[1] because John Eddy’s work on temperature sunspot relations and Hubert Lamb’s work on the Dust Veil Index were raising questions about cause and effect. Temperatures were already declining from the solar activity associated with the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) when Tambora erupted.
It appears the cold trend of the Little Ice Age was turning. Volcanic activity, particular the eruption of Ichinsky in Kamchatka, triggered the Great Frost of 1741. Dickson claims,
Indeed, the time of the Great Frost remains to this day the longest period of extreme cold in modern European history.
This claim appears to depend on the definition of “modern European history”. The Central England Temperature (Figure 3) shows the cold of 1740 and a prolonged cold spell that exceeds anything after 1900. In the commentary to the Archibald article there is reference to blocking, the pattern that causes the normal west to east movement of the Rossby Waves to slow down and the Waves to deepen. This results in extreme, prolonged temperature or precipitation patterns that cause problems and is most likely the explanation as other similar events indicate.
Cynthia Wilson and I organized a workshop for the 1816 conference. We created very large global maps and asked people to indicate the temperature and precipitation patterns for their region. Using simple symbols for very high normal and very low, a distinctive map emerged that showed the extreme meridionality of the Circumpolar Vortex. (The maps are included in the published proceedings.) The pattern of wind was significantly different in direction and force. Similar changes in wind were noted in 1740. In Scotland the January wind was described as a piercing Nova Zembla (Novaya Zemlya) air” This means it was coming form the northeast, probably as part of the Polar Easterlies (Figure 4).
Figure 3
The pattern of deaths was different in 1741 than 1845. Most early deaths were due to the extreme cold, followed by a growing number due to starvation. Records are scarce but Dickson says,
How does 1740-41 measure up again later, more famous, Great Irish Famine? In terms of relative casualties, the older crisis was undoubtedly the more severe, even taking the lower bound estimate of 310,000 fatalities in 1740-41.
More important, these deaths occurred in a relatively short year and a half, while 1845 lasted some six years.
Discussion
Both time 1741 and 1845 experienced meridional conditions as the Rossby Waves deepened and slowed in their easterly migration. Generally, with zonal flow or even low amplitude meridional flow, mid-latitude weather patterns persist
Figure 4
approximately 4 to 6 weeks. As meridionality intensifies, Rossby Waves deepen and blocking occurs, causing weather patterns to persist for 8, 10 or even 12 weeks. This can cover entire growing seasons and result in excessive, damaging, hot, cold, wet or dry conditions.
Various permutations can occur. For example, in the 14th century there were long periods with cool and wet summers, with warm and wet winters – it was difficult to separate the seasons. Similar conditions occurred during the 17th century and again plagues devastated populations. During the period following Tambora, extreme meridionality caused prolonged conditions. A drought in central Canada, documented in detail by Peter Fidler, stressed the people with profound social and historical impact detailed in my 1992 paper, “Climatic Change, Droughts and Their Social Impact: Central Canada, 1811-20, a classic example”. It was also the theme of a public presentation at the Museum titled, “The Year without a Summer: Its Impact on the Fur Trade and History of Western Canada.” at the National Museum of Natural Sciences, Canadian Museum of Nature, Ottawa. As usual, historians attributed the social impacts solely to colonial expansion.
It is the same pattern seen in reports of the 2011 uprising in Egypt that became “the Arab Spring”. The catalyst was dramatic increases in food prices. At best, these got secondary mention by a few reports.
Then, there is a secondary problem: a huge run-up in food costs in recent months. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the worldwide food price index is at an all-time high—surpassing its 2008 peak, when skyrocketing costs caused global rioting and pushed as many as 64 million people into poverty. The price of oils, sugar, and cereals have all recently hit new peaks—and those latter prices are especially troubling for Egypt, as the world’s biggest importer of wheat.
So the media, like historians, are telling stories, with bias, misinformation and the arrogant belief that humans are not environmentally or climatically determined. As Benjamin Bradlee said, ”News is the first rough draft of history.” Regardless, they are both driven by the need to blame someone, rather than something. Until we change that the chances of understanding and reacting properly to natural events is very unlikely.
[1] C.R.Harington (ed) The Year Without a Summer? World Climate in 1816. 1992, National Museum of Natural Sciences, Canadian Museum of Nature, Ottawa.
As soon as there are victims (real or perceived), people look for someone to blame, someone to paint as criminals to direct their anger at or get control over by using guilt. Saying that those that are suffering are the cause of their suffering due to bad decisions, bad planning, etc, is never deemed “acceptable” because you cannot be a victim and a criminal.
Guess what, work hard, plan well, learn from mistakes and you do a lot to avoid being a victim or mitigate the effects of events that you cannot control from turning you into a victim. Simples …
Wonderful work by Dr Ball. He’s always struck me as an optimist at heart, and the necessity of playing role of Cassandra must be unpleasant – yet as we segue into the Solar Grand Minimum, what choice if one believes, optimistically, in the eventual victory of ‘common sense’, that most uncommon of virtues.
I have been reading Merchants of Despair by Robert Zubrin. He points out that
“… in 1846 alone, at the height of the famine, Ireland exported over 730,000 cattle and other livestock, and over 3 million quarts of corn and grain flour to Great Britain. The Irish diet was confined to potatoes because – having had their land expropriated, having been forced to endure merciless rack-rents and taxes, and having been denied any opportunity to acquire income through manufactures or other means – tubers were the only food the Irish could afford. So when the potato crop failed, there was nothing for the Irish themselves to eat, despite the fact that throughout the famine, their homeland continued to export massive amounts of grain, butter, cheese, and meat for foreign consumption.” (page 10)
This was Malthusian theory in action. Malthus believed that there were too many Irish people in Ireland, and that “to give full effect to the natural resources of the country, a great part of the population should be swept from the soil.” The British cabinet (the government) was dominated by Malthusian ideologues who refused to give aid to the Irish (despite enormous international criticism), and so the Irish starved while the food they raised was taken away to feed the English and Scots.
The French Revolution was also triggered by a series of very bad winters. From a History Of The French Revolution by Hippolyte Taine written in 1872:
““In 1788, a year of severe drought, the crops had been poor. In addition to this, on the eve of the harvest, a terrible hail-storm burst over the region around Paris, from Normandy to Champagne, devastating sixty leagues of the most fertile territory, and causing damage to the amount of one hundred millions of francs. Winter came on, the severest that had been seen since. At the close of December the Seine was frozen over from Paris to Havre”
Excerpt From: Taine, Hippolyte. “The French Revolution – Volume 1.
One aspect of the Irish Potato Famine of the 1840s which is not often mentioned is the variety of potato involved. This was the Lumper, a variety suited to poor ground, and the major variety cultivated by the Irish poor. More wealthy landholders also planted the variety, but mainly as stock feed. So when the Blight struck, Lumper being so prone to attack, the entire crop was wiped out. Naturally enough, the climate paid a big part in the famine, as Dr Ball describes, not only in terms of optimum conditions for the spread of Potato Blight but in killing malnourished peasants. Lumper has recently been resurrected as an heirloom variety after virtually disappearing from the potato varieties list for well over a century.
Source appears to be an excerpt from the author’s book “1493.”
“P. infestans is an oomycete, one of 700 or so species sometimes known as water molds. It sends out tiny bags of 6 to 12 spores that are carried on the wind, usually for no more than 20 feet, occasionally for half a mile or more. When the bag lands on a susceptible plant, it breaks open, releasing what are technically known as zoospores. If the day is warm and wet enough, the zoospores germinate, sending threadlike filaments into the leaf. The first obvious symptoms—purple-black or purple-brown spots on the leaves—are visible in about five days. By then it is often too late for the plant to survive.
P. infestans preys on species in the nightshade family, especially potatoes and tomatoes. Scientists believe that it originated in Peru. Large-scale traffic between Peru and northern Europe began with the guano rush. Proof will never be found, but it is widely believed that the guano ships carried P. infestans. Probably taken to Antwerp, P. infestans first broke out in early summer 1845, in the West Flanders town of Kortrijk, six miles from the French border.
The blight hopscotched to Paris by that August. Weeks later, it was destroying potatoes in the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark and England. Governments panicked. It was reported in Ireland on September 13, 1845. Cormac O Grada, an economist and blight historian at University College, Dublin, has estimated that Irish farmers planted about 2.1 million acres of potatoes that year. In two months P. infestans wiped out the equivalent of one-half to three-quarters of a million acres. The next year was worse, as was the year after that. The attack did not wind down until 1852.”
So it was a fungus shipped over with the fertilizer boats that did it, most likely. In the book itself he goes into further detail on traditional vs centrally planned farming methods and how Ireland had recently converted to the centrally planned style of fields, which also served to accelerate the spread of it. No mention of climate in his book at all that I recall.
This blogger summarizes that part of the book here
What I found interesting, however, was the author’s exploration of the reasons for the Blight’s apocalyptic agricultual effect. While the sheer number of potatoes growing in Ireland made it an easy target, another, often overlooked contributor may have been a change in Irish growing methods. . . .
In both Ireland and South America, farmers planted on wide raised beds, separated one from the next with deep furrows for walking. Raised beds create a particularly beneficial microclimate for crops in cold, wet environs. Water and cold air are both drawn away from the plants and into the furrows, thereby decreasing the likelihood of blight transmission by half.
Unfortunately for the Irish, the 1830s witnessed a wave of agricultural innovation and a national campaign to move away from labor intensive hand cultivation toward standardized, mechanized row crops. Ireland shifted from raised beds to flat beds, setting the stage for the Blight’s fantastic rampage.
I agree, a terrific review of little known/studied history, and importantly, a connection for a lesson to be learned and applied to our own modern times (and if all that wasn’t enough, he did it with a dismissal of malthusian pessimism and a nod to technology). PLUS a terrific review of the seemingly forgotten importance to modern history of refrigeration!
I could wish to see that subject a little more developed in a separate article; a quick comparison of cities in North America which flourished primarily after the development of refrigerated train cars to those founded prior (comparing, e.g., Los Angeles to New York or Boston) is enough to demonstrate one huge impact of refrigeration. The impact of easy, widespread preservation of food, both during delivery and after, is worthy of several volumes—
That aside: Brilliant! Many thanks to Dr Ball for another terrific essay!
The late potato blight struck other countries as well, to include Highland Scotland from 1846-53.
The first recorded instances of the disease, caused by the oomycete Phytophthora infestans, were in the US, in Philadelphia & New York City in early 1843. Winds then spread the spores. By 1845 it was found from Illinois to Nova Scotia, & from Virginia to Ontario. It supposedly crossed the Atlantic in a shipment of seed potatoes for Belgian farmers in 1845. All the potato-growing countries of Europe were afflicted, but the blight hit Ireland hardest. Ireland disproportionately dependency upon a single variety, the Irish Lumper. This lack of genetic diversity created a susceptible host population for the pathogenic organism.
http://www.history.com/news/after-168-years-potato-famine-mystery-solved
During World War I, German copper was used for ammo coatings & casings & electric wire, so little to none was available for making copper sulfate for potato spray. Thus a major late blight outbreak went untreated. The resulting dearth of potatoes allegedly caused 700,000 German civilians to starve to death. The Allied blockade didn’t help.
Mike T says:
August 20, 2014 at 7:21 pm
I see I’ve been scooped.
My ancestors came to North America in 1751 after years of famine, war, and disease in Germany.
Motivated by only despair in staying in Germany’s Rhineland, my family left Germany with ~30,000 others to land in the North East of British North America. Queen Anne helped settle many in Pennsylvania and Ohio etc. My direct Ancestors landed in Nova Scotia.
My family’s historical records remark the cold weather and starvation of the early 1700s.
I believe 1709 was “the year with no summer” in Germany. Records also detail the similarly miserable weather in Nova Scotia.
Similar fate to the IRISH of 1840s.
Indeed a great essay, but this statement is flat out wrong.
“History shows that leadership reaction to crisis is always inadequate.”
Not so. The Russian Empire responded to its greatest crisis in 1812 superbly, stopping dead in its tracks the mightiest war machine Europe had ever seen since the Mongols. And it did so because of tough-minded, ruthless leadership that took full advantage of Russia’s soldiers and its merciless climate. I can think of hundreds of other such examples in history where leadership has been fully up to the task. I can also think of hundreds where it wasn’t. You can’t just pronounce generalizations like this.
Paul Westhaver says:
August 20, 2014 at 7:37 pm
Don’t think Queen Anne settled many of your ancestors or relatives in Ohio. PA, yes, for sure, hence the Pennsylvania “Dutch”, including some of my ancestors. But during Anne’s reign (1702-07), Ohio was firmly under French & Indian control.
As for 1709, it was the winter that was historic:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Frost_of_1709
Other years were those “without a summer”, often following volcanic eruptions.
Posts like this are always interesting to read. Thanks.
Every undergraduate ‘Climate Scientist’ should be made to do a compulsory History module before being unleashed on the world.
Good piece. Thank you!
more history in the making!
20 Aug: UK Daily Mail: Jenny Awford: Did you say August or Autumn? Sun rises over misty Peak District as miles of rolling hills are shrouded in morning fog and the nation shivers as temperatures drop to 2C
Temperatures dipped as low as 2C in Northern Ireland and 3C in Derbyshire Peak District early this morning
Friday will see some coastal showers in the UK, but it will be feeling warmer across the country
Sunny spells are predicted for Bank Holiday Saturday and Sunday, but Monday will be a washout
And tomorrow Britain will be colder than Siberia, feeling chillier than an average October in the UK as the Arctic summer shiver peaks…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2729849/Did-say-August-Autumn-Sun-rises-misty-Peak-District-miles-rolling-hills-shrouded-morning-fog-nation-shivers-temperatures-drop.html
The population of countries in the Middle East and North Africa exceeds their lands ability to feed their populations. In fact, most are importing over half of their population’s caloric needs. We are reducing the hold that these countries have because of fracking so oil for food will not be quite the strangulation hold it currently is. In addition with global cooling in our future, food production and exports from the US and other northern countries will decrease. Now you can answer the line in the song that goes, “WAR, what is it good for?”
You will find documentation at this URL.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0f8acde8-3fe8-11e0-811f-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3AzUWqXYi
even more history-making, says Dr. Jon Bridle at Bristol:
20 Aug: UK Independent: The butterfly effect: climate change ‘forced species to adapt’
A British butterfly species has made climate-change history by becoming the first known animal of any kind to lose the ability to do something after global warming forced it to move to a new environment and adapt its behaviour.
The brown argus butterfly has spread from long-established sites in the south of England further north to areas such as Lincolnshire and South Yorkshire as climate change has made them warmer and more habitable.
But in the move the species has lost its ability to eat one of the two plants on which it has traditionally survived because it is not prevalent in its new home, according to new research.
“To our knowledge, this is the first time that the loss of adaptive variation during evolutionary responses to recent climate change has been demonstrated in any animal,” said one of the report’s authors, Dr Jon Bridle, of the University of Bristol…
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/the-butterfly-effect-climate-change-forced-species-to-adapt-9679477.html
Is your population chart for the entire island, or only the Irish Republic (which would be the Irish Free State from 1921-64)? Wouldn’t want to commit one of those splicing errors like Dr. Mann.
cgh says:
August 20, 2014 at 7:38 pm
…..”You can’t just pronounce generalizations like this.”
==================
well said.
The population of countries in the Middle East and North Africa exceeds their lands ability to feed their populations. In fact, most are importing over half of their population’s caloric needs. We are reducing the hold that these countries have because of fracking so oil for food will not be quite the strangulation hold it currently is. In addition with global cooling in our future, food production and exports from the US and other northern countries will decrease.
You will find documentation at this URL.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0f8acde8-3fe8-11e0-811f-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3AzUWqXYi
The population of countries in the Middle East and North Africa exceeds their lands ability to feed their populations. In fact, most are importing over half of their population’s caloric needs. We are reducing the hold that these countries have because of fracking so oil for food will not be quite the strangulation hold it currently is. In addition with global cooling in our future, food production and exports from the US and other northern countries will decrease.
The story I have heard about the potato famine – the cause was a common strategy of colonialism. The British had increasingly been exercising power over the Irish in the Brit control and administration of Ireland. Some economic circumstances – taxes and control of rules of land ownership – moved many of the farming Irish from being generally independent farmers and farmers with strong local inter-dependencies to something more similar to sharecroppers.
So, they tilted toward two things: crops or animals that wold bring profit from sale to the increasing Brit bureaucracy/population – a middle class with money but no farming roots – and otherwise to more subsistence farming. This shift in the economic life of communities is common in colonialism/imperialism situations. Also, the introduction of labor-saving equipment and technology shifts the economy to be less diversified regarding need for human skill – occasional labor help becomes more commoditized, and so marginalized economically.
The Irish shifted to depend more on the potato, rather than a varied diet, for sustenance. So, the problem of monoculture came upon them.
Ecclesiastes chapter 11 sez:
Invest in seven ventures, yes, in eight;
you do not know what disaster may come upon the land….
Sow your seed in the morning,
and at evening let your hands not be idle,
for you do not know which will succeed,
whether this or that,
or whether both will do equally well.
In this map, you see population rise in the port cities – Belfast, Dublin, and Cork, and decline everywhere else – the urban areas are doing well as the countryside suffers…
http://www.ulsterheritage.com/maps/pop_change_1841_1851.gif
“The world is not overpopulated. There is no shortage of food.”
While that’s true globally there are certainly regional problems-
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-120814.html
and too many idle young men at once with little or no opportunity ahead of them……?
@cc Squid
Love the spam. Thanks.
However, Morocco, for instance, exports food. And with a better irrigation system it would do as well or better as the south of Spain, once a barren desert yet now considered by some Europe’s produce garden.
Ah, just burn a witch.