Bárðarbunga volcano getting ready to blow? 1000 Earthquakes felt as magma moves into ice covered caldera

yearly_activity[1]From the Icelandic Meteorological Office:

A summary of seismic activity, written Tuesday evening 19th August 2014 at 20:00

Around 1.000 small earthquakes were detected in the Bárðarbunga region from midnight (18/19) until Tuesday evening 19th August at 20:00. All of them were smaller than magnitude 3 and most were located in the cluster east of Bárðarbunga.

While the northern cluster close to Kistufell has calmed down significantly following the M4.5 earthquake on early Monday morning, event rates in the eastern cluster are still high. Similar to recent days, two pulses of comparably strong seismic activity have been measured between 04:00 and 08:00 this morning, as well as 16:00 and 18:30 in the afternoon. The cluster east of Bárðarbunga continued to slowly migrate northeastwards today. Events are still located at around 5-12 km depths, no signs of upwards migration has been seen so far.

Below is a summary map of all manually revised earthquakes since the onset of the swarm, which illustrates the migration of earthquake activity during the last days. Earthquakes in the map are colour coded by time, dark blue dots show the onset of the swarm on Saturday, orange dots Tuesday’s events until 19:00, light blue and yellow are the days in between. The time scale is days since the onset of the swarm.

Map by Gunnar B. Guðmundsson, Icelandic Meteorological Office.


 

via WUWT commenter “unmentionable”:

From the quotes below it sound like they’re crossing their fingers and toes that this thing stays underground and does not get any bigger. the longer the tremor goes on like this the worse its going to be if it pops under 2,000 ft of water ice.

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Magma flowing into Bárðarbunga caldera with great force – 20th August 2014

http://www.visir.is/magma-flowing-into-bardarbunga-caldera-with-great-force/article/2014140829931

Kristín Vogfjörð, seismologist and research director at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, says that the activity is very powerful. “This just keeps going on. This is many times more powerful than what’s been going on in recent years.” Kristín says that a large volume of magma is flowing under the caldera, heading northeast towards the Kverkfjöll mountain range. The magma is staying at a depth of 5-10 kilometers – there are no signs of it moving any closer to the surface. If asked if an eruption is due to happen in the next few days, Kristín responds: “Not necessarily. There’s nothing suggesting that it’s about to. But due to the size and scale of the activity there’s full reason to be vigilant and prepare for an eruption.”

Magma surge towards the surface would be very powerful – 20th August 2014

http://www.visir.is/magma-surge-towards-the-surface-would-be-very-powerful/article/2014140829927

Kristín Vogfjörð, research director at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, says that the current seismic activity at Bárðarbunga is many times more powerful than any on record for the site. “It’s very powerful,” she says. For comparison she notes that thousands of quakes have been measured at Bárðarbunga in the past week, but in the Gjálpar eruption in 1996 they were only a few hundred. … “While this is going on, it may never reach the surface. But we still need to keep an eye on it because the volume of magma is incredible,” she adds. …”There is no indication that it’s moving further up than that. But if it were to happen, it would happen very quickly,” Kristín states.

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AleaJactaEst
August 23, 2014 9:58 am

Unmentionable,
So what were the two wildly differing estimates? I haven’t seen any reported. Some wildly differing estimates are better than nothing for us feasting on this volcanic smorgasbord 🙂

Unmentionable
August 23, 2014 11:07 am

One was within the linked in this comment I made yesterday. These seem to me to be guesstimates and not real estimates based on propagation paths and velocities.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/20/bardarbunga-getting-ready-to-blow-1000-earthquakes-felt-as-magma-moves-into-ice-covered-caldera/#comment-1714966
The other if I remember correctly was in this site, somewhere, from the second or third blog post down.
http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/?author=2
I didn’t find the numbers useful or well explained, I’m more interested in the official view, but I’m fairly sure they won’t do that due to whatever they say being misinterpreted, or else read into too far and double guessed.
It’s wait and see time.

Larry Ledwick
August 23, 2014 12:07 pm

They had a mag 4 and 4.2 shock about 15-30 minutes ago at shallow depth 1.1 km and 0.9 km some distance (about 0.5 deg of longitude) from the main focus of the shocks and apparent path the flow is trying to wedge open. Wondering if that is near the edge of the caldera and might indicate the caldera roof cap is beginning to yield to the stresses.
http://baering.github.io/

Larry Ledwick
August 23, 2014 12:28 pm

I have a post stuck in moderation if someone can release it before it is really old news.
I also noticed that in the link I posted above there appears to be a 15 minute time difference between the elapsed times in the left 3D chart and the table on the upper right for what I believe are the same events.

August 23, 2014 1:01 pm

This story, by the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service (RUV), was updated on 23 August 2014, at 16.33 GMT
The Icelandic Met Office says a small subglacial eruption started today beneath the Dyngjujokull outlet glacier, near the Bardarbunga caldera. Scientists aboard a surveillance airplane above the glacier see no signs of an eruption yet. All flight traffic has however been banned near the volcano.
Kristin Jonsdottir, geophysicist at the Icelandic Met Office says that this morning, increased seismic activity and increased tremor was observed around the Bardarbunga caldera, especially in a 25 km. long dyke intrusion north and east of the caldera, near the edge of the Dyngjujokull outlet glacier.
Shortly after 2 PM GMT, the Met Office declared an aviation alert for a large area around Bardarbunga and said a small eruption was believed to have started under the glacier. No signs of glacial flood has been observed and scientists in a surveillance airplane above the glacier see no sign on the surface of the glacier. Even so, the measurements indicated a small eruption under the glacier and it is now believed that it was small enough, not to cause significant melting of glacial ice. A larger eruption can not be ruled out, according to the Met Office.
The dyke intrusion has been forming over the last few days. It is now believed to be around 25 km. long, and about 0,2 – 0,3 cubic kilometers of magma is thought to have entered the intrusion from a magma chamber beneath the Bardarbunga caldera.
At this stage measurements taken are based on a small event. The Jökulsárgljúfur canyon has been closed and evacuation of tourists in that area and around Dettifoss waterfall has started. The situation at this stage does not call for evacuation of habitants in Kelduhverfi, Öxarfjördur and Núpasveit. People in those areas are encouraged to watch news closely and have their mobiles switched on at all times.
This story, by the Icelandic National Broadcasting Service (RUV), was updated on 23 August 2014, at 16.33 GMT.
Updates in English will be posted at: ruv.is/volcano. Follow us on Twitter @ruvfrettir

August 23, 2014 1:05 pm

>>>Scientists Disagree With Met Office, Say No Eruption<<<
http://grapevine.is/news/2014/08/23/scientists-disagree-with-met-office-say-no-eruption/

August 23, 2014 1:07 pm
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