Maurice Newman, Aussie PM Abbott's most senior advisor, on the dangers of global cooling

Story submitted by Eric Worrall

“WHAT if David Archibald’s book The Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short turns out to be right? What if the past 50 years of peace, cheap energy, abundant food, global economic growth and population explosion have been due to a temporary climate phenomenon?”

This is the first paragraph of Maurice Newman’s latest attack on the world’s infatuation with global warming.

 

Maurice Newman is the Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s most senior economic advisor – one of the first acts of the newly elected Abbott government was to appoint Maurice Newman to the chair of the government Business Advisory Council.

According to the article written by Newman;

“If the world does indeed move into a cooling period, its citizens are ill-prepared. After the 2008 fin­ancial crisis, most economies are still struggling to recover. Cheap electricity in a colder climate will be critical, yet distorted price signals caused by renewable energy policies are driving out reliable baseload generators. Attracting fresh investment will be difficult, expensive and slow.

Only time will tell, but it is fanciful to believe that it will be business as usual in a colder global climate. ”

http://m.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/were-illprepared-if-the-iceman-cometh/story-e6frg6zo-1227023489894

If Newman is right, governments have been preparing for the wrong crisis, squandering resources which could have been used to prepare us for the coming cold. At the depths of the Little Ice Age, grain production in Northern latitudes, regions which are currently regarded as the breadbaskets of the Western World, was severely curtailed, due to shorter growing seasons and greater weather instability. And there is always the risk that a little ice age could become something worse – if the historical record is any guide, we are nearing the end of the current interglacial.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age

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joelobryan

The old paradigm: “CO2 leads to catastrphic warming” points the way to the new paradigm: CO2 is good. It mitigates the cold and feeds the plants.

JJM Gommers

I expect this winter as a normal one but 2015 is critical, if there will be a small sign of dropping temperatures I will take my precautions which I have in mind. This expected cooling I take for real.

Meanwhile, over at Fairfax we find that others are treating a psychopathology called ‘climate depression.’ This is where climate change activists slip into despair. It all started just after climategate, in Copenhagen 2009…
http://www.smh.com.au/national/a-climate-of-despair-20140813-102r1w.html

brent

Climate change measures like ‘primitive civilisations offering up sacrifices to appease the gods’, says Maurice Newman
But he fears the “political establishment” is deaf to risks of global cooling because “having made science a religion, it bravely persists with its global warming narrative, ignoring at its peril and ours, the clear warnings being given by Mother Nature”.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/climate-change-measures-like-primitive-civilisations-offering-up-sacrifices-to-appease-the-gods-says-maurice-newman-20140814-3do0v.html

thingadonta

Newman is trying to provide balance to the obsession to leave the sun out of things within climate science, and is one of those people who is totally disillusioned by the inability of the academic establishment to be anywhere near objective.
Despite solar activity being relatively high in recent decades, and despite exactly this sort of level of solar activity leading to climate warming in the past, it is dismissed and rarely given a hearing by mainstream climate science. They keep dismissing solar output as ‘not increasing’ over several decades of measurement, but it is the relatively high and sustained level of solar output over these decades, in context with previous decades and centuries, which is fundamental in driving the more recent decades of warming.
This will come back to haunt them, they have already made up their minds on what is going on without looking at all the evidence objectively. Too many snouts in the trough and simply too many agendas to get to the bottom of things. The 21st century will not forget the way mainstream science was perverted and captured by narrow self interests.

cnxtim

Makes me proud to be an Aussie…Now if the Wallabies can put it together on the weekend : ) 🙂

“If Newman is right…”
Well, that would require that David Archibald is right. I suspect WUWT’s senior scientific adviser would say, don’t bet on it. And you’d think the Oz Gov’t might be cautious after his 2008 submission to Parliament (Summary):
“2008 is the tenth anniversary of the recent peak on global temperature in 1998. The world has been cooling at 0.06 degrees per annum since then. My prediction is that this rate of cooling will accelerate to 0.2 degrees per annum following the month of solar minimum sometime in 2009.”
That would put us now about 1.6°C down since 1998.

pat

is this a day for CAGW scepticism in the MSM?
13 Aug: UK Daily Mail: Earth has been getting hotter for the past 10,000 YEARS, contradicting studies that humans started global warming
The study argues previous research used contradictory ice core data
Scientists ran different computer simulations of climate influences
Each showed a notable global warming trend over last 10,000 years
And no physical forces, scientists say, could have been strong enough to overwhelm the warming trend
By Ellie Zolfagharifard For Mailonline
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2723861/Earth-getting-hotter-past-10-000-YEARS-contradicting-studies-humans-began-global-warming-trend.html

Patrick

50 years of peace, really? OK, maybe no world war…but certainly war.
We really haven’t seen the end of the finicial crisis thta started in 2008. The global economy is so complex and so interconnected that the slightest failure can trigger snow ball growth in other failures. The 2008 event started in Iceland. It’s rather ironic that a building in Iceland in which signalled the end of the cold war and thus comunism is right next to a bank that signaled the start of the 2008 banking system failure. Right now rich bankers are being paid off by the poorest people in the poorest countries and China is bankrolling the US.

Eric Worrall:
Thankyou for your report of the comment by Maurice Newman (Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott’s most senior economic advisor) that begins saying

If the world does indeed move into a cooling period, its citizens are ill-prepared.

In the late 1990s I was reviled across the web because I repeatedly said the following.
The world cooled from about 1940 for the about 30 years to about 1970.
Alarmists claimed the cooling was a threat of catastrophe and was caused by emissions of SO2 from use of fossil fuels so fossil fuel usage should be curtailed.
The world has warmed from about 1970 for about 30 years. So, alarmists have morphed the scare.
Alarmists claim the warming is a threat of catastrophe and is caused by emissions of CO2 from use of fossil fuels so fossil fuel usage should be curtailed.
If the world again cools for about 30 years then the climate scare can be expected to be morphed back to the cooling is a threat of catastrophe and is caused by emissions from use of fossil fuels so fossil fuel usage should be curtailed.

About half of 30 years ago the world stopped warming, and I have yet to see any reason to doubt my prediction.
Richard

luvthefacts

Thankfully there are some authoritative voices questioning the unscientific rhetoric that has characterized Australia’s recent Climate discussions.
Our Universities have provided little inspiration as they buckled to the demands of the drongo Greens.
The previous government had NO IDEA anyway, forget Gillard’s “the Science is settled”, is was more like “the Science I don’t understand”.
Fortunately much of the money is now being directed towards “sustainability” which helps the community with better roads, bridges, bushfire prevention etc.
Well done!!!

Please post instructions on how to submit a story or advise by email..
I have have been active in climate research since 1995 and come across remarkable stories about once a month.

John Of Cloverdale WA, Australia

cnxtim says:
August 14, 2014 at 12:43 am
“Makes me proud to be an Aussie…Now if the Wallabies can put it together on the weekend : ) :)”
…….1 minute to go. All Blacks lead by 1 point. Infringement in the ruck by Richie MacCaw.
Penalty to the Wallabies, right in front of the posts. History repeats!
“History never repeats
I tell myself before I go to sleep
Don’t say the words you might regret”
(Split Enz – Kiwi Band)

Ex-expat Colin

The risk analysis should be in both directions – too hot/too cold. The money is clearly on too hot. I have mentioned the incidence of severe cooling on a number of websites, but it never raises a direct response.
Rarely you may see a comment similar to, ” I’d rather die too hot than freezing”, And thats it? The truth is that preparation for cold, as with common severe weather, is/has been seriously neglected.
Fairly cool/wet (13C) here in the W. England. Think the Bertha turmoil turned UK weather on its head. Prepared? Nope.

As Ex-expat Colin says, most people prefer warm to cold. It’s no secret that many people move south when they retire. In Canada and the US, Florida and Arizona are great places to spend winter.
Since 1978, most years have found me in Southeast Asia with a few in the warmer parts of South America and Africa.
Moreover, the governments in almost all of these countries pay lip-service to the UN and ADB, but completely avoid doing anything that will damage their economies in the futile hope that they can influence the global climate.

luvthefacts

I read the above story about Nicole Thornton in (smh) the Sydney Morning Herald. What a joke, better off to get a proper job – most people really don’t believe in Global Warming as she would like to think, just her mate’s on the previous Govt payroll.
Crying “Wolf!!” shouldn’t be a career and certainly shouldn’t provide a living.

Mr Green Genes

John Of Cloverdale WA, Australia says:
August 14, 2014 at 1:19 am
Infringement in the ruck by Richie MacCaw.

===================================
If all of those were penalised, NZ would scarcely have won a match in the last 10 years 😉

Mr Green Genes has clearly written in the English language and I grasp all the words. But the meaning escapes me, perhaps because I have never had the opportunity to enjoy life in Australia and NZ..

rogerknights

Fred Colbourne says:
August 14, 2014 at 1:12 am
Please post instructions on how to submit a story or advise by email..
I have have been active in climate research since 1995 and come across remarkable stories about once a month.
Atop each WUWT thread is a row of tabs. One of them is “Submit Story” and another is “Tips and Notes.”

rogerknights

Oops–somehow the first two text blocks above didn’t get indented.

steve mcdonald

The Catastrophic Man-man Global Warming Zealots.
The biggest organised crime gang in the history of humanity.

Unmentionable

Ha! Now the greenery rejects natural cyclic political variability as well?
Adam Bandt, you’re a disgusting little white-anter who can’t function within any milue other than a monopolar porridge of vile little warp’onaughts. So say hi to Sarah and Christine, I’d gladly give you all a free RAN life boat cruise on the Andaman Sea.
Open the sea cocks!

Chris Thixton

@ Fred handful of posts back. It’s RUGBY Fred, a game spoken of reverently by large taciturn men in deep, dark places.

Tim

He is opposing a political movement, not a scientific one. Therefore it is possible the global elitists behind that movement will not like what they view as a heretic that could derail decades of planning.
Interesting to see what they do.

I spent a few weeks in Iceland this year, and talked to some locals. Despite their conformist government making mandatory green noises, most Icelanders (as well as other Nordic peoples) have had high hopes for the “global warming,” waiting for the return of the Medieval Warm Period good times. Now they start to realize that warming is not happening, and that there are serious indications of the opposite (summer temperatures went down, there was a record snowfall in Eastern Iceland — up to 15 feet! — during the 2013-14 winter). In August, there’s still unmelted snow on the cliffs of the Eastern Fjords; covered with the new snow this fall, it could quickly become a permanent snow cover. I can tell you Icelanders are scared and unhappy, being a small nation, very vulnerable to any additional cold.

Nick Stokes – just thought I’d ask as you’re so precise on your figures – how many degrees under the each of the IPCC maximum predictions are we right now? What did 1990’s prediction say we’d be at now? And what’s that in unadjusted figures? ;-/
What was that old saying about about people who live in glass houses…
Oh yes, they might have a greehouse effect.

ozspeaksup

pop over to the gaurdians take on it
they add the usual blatherskite from ipcc and a ripper braindeath quote by mathew england
the on about strong winds pushing heat underneath the ocean tops.
Newman was pushed out of the ABC top job, and I suspect a certain R williams and cronies had a fair bit to do with that, theyre the greener than green schemers,
big ideas radio show 3am this morning (thatd be Aus thursday 3am or so) its podcastable off the abc RN website
sit back and laugh at Clive Hamiltons moaning and lies
funny
till
he starts on the remedial options. then you just wanna bang head n cry

davefreer says: August 14, 2014 at 3:24 am
“Nick Stokes – just thought I’d ask as you’re so precise on your figures – how many degrees under the each of the IPCC maximum predictions are we right now? What did 1990’s prediction say we’d be at now?”

Well, since you ask, here is the WUWT review of Hansen’s 1988 prediction as at 2012 (a cool year globally). It’s 0.53°C below scenario B, which is probably the closest. That’s after 24 years.
Archibald’s prediction was made six years ago.

Nick Stokes – just WHAT did I ask? (read it again, carefully, and try again without so much slithering. Are you a lawyer?) – you can look it up here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/12/the-temperature-forecasting-track-record-of-the-ipcc/ Then you can add on the amounts for ‘adjustment’ (seeing as no one really knows quite how accurate, with the Zombie stations and other little always convenient adjustments of the past. My point, bluntly, is Archibald is wrong – but so is everybody else – by a substantial margin – when you have a record of popping up here and saying that BEFORE you attack other viewpoints I might take you seriously. Anyway – come back in 23 years from Archibald (who is also probably wrong) with figures that anyone can actually trust and establish as not ‘suitably adjusted’ and we can at least see if he was wrong about direction as well as scale. Right now my personal jury is out, the record seems fairly flat, but the fact that one side seems to be doing a lot of slither and cook (play on words intentional) and has a lot to lose makes me very wary about trusting them. You certainly haven’t helped their cause!

Newman is correct. It is the nature of government to squander the years of plenty and to cry and wail and gnash their teeth (and penalize the ants that are its citizens) during years of hardships, not for anything the ants have done, but because they have grown accustomed to squandering.

Cheshirered
dccowboy

Nick Stokes,
Form the same post you linked to
“Even a “naive” prediction of no change would have been closer to the truth (low by 0.22 ⁰C) than Hansen’s Scenarios A (high by +0.68 ⁰C) and B (high by 0.53 ⁰C)!”

Gary Pearse

Nick Stokes says:
August 14, 2014 at 12:46 am
“2008 is the tenth anniversary of the recent peak on global temperature in 1998. The world has been cooling at 0.06 degrees per annum since then. My prediction is that this rate of cooling will accelerate to 0.2 degrees per annum following the month of solar minimum sometime in 2009.”
That would put us now about 1.6°C down since 1998″”.
Nick, he probably meant per decade, but nevertheless, he’s closer to right than the IPPC with their 25,000 experts and he did it with the egregiously fiddled temperature record! Most important, he got the sign right. You fellows have talked and calculated yourselves out of a right to criticize such a prediction. It’s particularly bad when the butcher, the baker and the candlestick maker are more right than the experts. It is 13 C here as a high today in mid-summer Ottawa, Canada where we are used to 25 – 30C and it has been ~5C or more cooler all spring and summer after a very arctic winter the few years. North America has been blue all year with all time low records (last month an arcticle here on Alabama lows). Weird weather or not, with your science, we should not be experiencing this at all after 30years of inexorable warming – natural variability be damned.
Your a smart guy, Nick. What does it take before question marks appear?

Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia

This Newman bloke is good. Hope he is backing up the words with mass sackings of bludging greenie climate change public servants, devious con artist climate change academics and 5th columnist green left government broadcasters.

Patrick

“Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia says:
August 14, 2014 at 4:24 am”
Abbott ditched Flannery and the “Climate Comission” but we still have various “funds/banks” setup by the ALP to dismantle including the Renewable Energy Target (RET) AU$10bil fund to redirect to where it is needed.

Patrick

“Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia says:
August 14, 2014 at 4:24 am
This Newman bloke is good.”
I strongly disagree. He is an economist and as Garnaut should not have commented on matters of science, that lead to the “price on carbon” under the ALP/Green Govn’t Newman should not have either.
Every single one of these people are cut from the same cloth. They will sell Grandma and throw the baby out with the bath water if they can see $$$ in it! Beware a politician who speaks.

Reblogged this on gottadobetterthanthis and commented:
Some, such as Neil deGrasse Tyson, claim we are in for warming or stable climate for millenia to come. I think such is simply wishful thinking. We are much more likely to get cold, though probably not for decades yet. It is still reasonable to suppose Manhattan will be under a layer of ice year-round in some few centuries. BTW, the old theory was that the North Pole would completely melt first (opening up the water for extra precipitation, mostly snow, which would accumulate year after year until the albedo was much higher (whiter), and the ice-growth cycle established year over year. It is possible they cycle has already begun. We could be facing failing crops and poor growing seasons within a decade or two.
Regardless, cold kills. Warmer is better.

William Astley

Will there be a Nobel prize issued for the discovery that the majority of the warming in the last 50 years was due to solar magnetic cycle changes as opposed to the increase in atmospheric CO2?
Observational evidence for the start of cooling is the sudden increase in Antarctic and Arctic sea ice and the inhibiting of the El Niño events.
There are cycles of warming and cooling in the paleo record that correlate with solar magnetic cycle changes. The sun was at its highest activity level in 3000 years during the last 50 years. Solar cycle 24 is the fastest decline in solar magnetic activity in the entire record.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.antarctic.png
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
How much cooling is required before the scientific community, media, and politicians abandons the warmists’ paradigm? How much cooling is required to cause concern?

Gary Pearse says: August 14, 2014 at 4:17 am
“Nick, he probably meant per decade, but nevertheless, he’s closer to right than the IPPC with their 25,000 experts and he did it with the egregiously fiddled temperature record!”

He’s not using the temperature record. He has a length of solar cycle theory. No, it’s not a confusion of units. He spells it out in the prologue:
“Solar cycles are normally 11 years long. We are currently near the end of Solar Cycle 23, which started in May 1996. It is now just over 12 years long. The previous cycle, 22, was a short one at 9.6 years. The differential is now 2½ years, which equates to a temperature decline of 1.7°. This is in the bag.”
In the bag. That’s where the gov’t advice is now coming from.

BallBounces

The hordes who sold their ocean front properties and fled their island sanctuaries because of massively rising sea levels will soon be seeking “climate justice”.

joshv

If we do enter a period of global cooling, it will of course be because the additional heat from the greenhouse effect is hiding in the ocean. This hidden ocean heat will be held over our heads like a boogie man – “It’s gunna come back soon! Boogity BOOGITY!”

Written by Maurice Newman, The Australian on 14 August 2014.
http://www.climatechangedispatch.com/we-re-ill-prepared-if-the-iceman-cometh.html
nopaywall

Nick Stokes
The temperature has been rising for the last 300 years, so the likelihood is that despite the hiatus it will head on upwards again at some point and who knows it might eventually reach the level of the MWP.
Whether you believe in CAGW or not, it is surely prudent to have a Plan B -for cooling-to go with the highly elaborate Plan A for warming. This would include mitigating against more extremes that are likely to come our way as the past shows more extremes than the present and our current benign climatic period can not go on for ever
tonyb

He’s not using the temperature record.
============
disingenuous. of course he is using the temperature record. to test his predictions.

surely prudent to have a Plan B -for cooling-to go with the highly elaborate Plan A for warming.
============
governments fight the next war using the tactics of the previous. the plans they have in place for warming will be the plans they use to fight cooling. the civil service will change “warming” to “cooling” in all the documents, but other than that the plans will be the same. after all, warming and cooling are both “climate change”. so the plans for warming will work equally well for cooling, according to the logic of government.

Johanus

Nick said:
“That would put us now about 1.6°C down since 1998.”
… and as others have already pointed out, CAGW estimates are equally wrong in the other direction, suggesting that the any “AGW signal”, if such exists, is buried deeply in noise.
If there were a compelling proof that man-made CO2 is the sole culprit for current (and future) climate catastrophes, then you should simply present that proof here and be done with it.
But it appears that there is no such proof (except for “what else could it be?”), thus your role here has been reduced to being a punching-bag troll, who occasionally punches back with a sucker punch or two, but who generally succeeds in creating
 diversionary confusion and hostility.
Come on Nick, don’t be shy, show us the compelling proof that manmade CO2 is the primary culprit for CAGW. It should be easy for you, since the science is already “settled”, and 97% of all climate scientists already believe in it.
Or perhaps you (and your fellow travelers) already know that H2O and aerosols (natural and manmade) dominate climate change. Aerosols, unlike CO2, absorb incoming sunlight. Aerosols also contribute to albedo and reflect incoming sunlight, so have cooling properties as well as warming. A more complex equation, which current climate models do not adequately address.
http://www.caltech.edu/content/study-aerosols-stands-improve-climate-models
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/28/another-negative-climate-feedback-more-co2-more-plants-more-aerosols-cooling/
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/173/3992/138.long%29  (1971!)

AJB

Nick Stokes says, August 14, 2014 at 4:58 am
In the bag. That’s where the gov’t advice is now coming from.
No different to haruspex or Bayes’ bag of balls. Gov’t should stick to repainting park benches once in a while and stop paying statistical bullshitters of all descriptions. Maybe then we’d have something approaching a normal distribution. As always the actual probability is 50:50 🙂

bernie1815

All this reminds me that it is time to go out and find a few newly fallen trees and start cutting wood for this winter and next winter. The question is how many cords?

Ulric Lyons

“..governments have been preparing for the wrong crisis, squandering resources which could have been used to prepare us for the coming cold.”
Absolutely. It has been typical for the coldest period in recent solar minima to occur roughly between the sunspot maxima of the first two weaker solar cycles. Also since 2008, I have been aware that between 2016 and 2024 there will be an sharp increase in cold shots in the mid latitudes, due to the short term planetary ordering of solar activity. Referring to suitable analogues at 179.05 years back on CET, deterministic forecasts can be made for monthly detail, e.g. early 2017 promises to be a very cold winter. But the greater concern is the number of summers through this period with very low temperatures, given how bad summer 2012 was for the UK farming economy, 2016 and 2018-2020 could put many out of business permanently. This period will see greatly increased El Nino and positive Indian Dipole events, and a renewed warm AMO, giving strongly increased drought episodes in Australia, India, and across the US great plains.
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/tcet.dat

Johanus says: August 14, 2014 at 5:44 am
>…thus your role here has been reduced to being a punching-bag troll, …who generally succeeds in creating diversionary confusion and hostility.
Nick is a trololol. You coorectly point out his nature and goals, then continue to play his game. He pokes for a minute, the you spend an hour writing a clever response. Stop feeding the troll and he will go away. Don’t make him important or let him live rent free in your head!
Cheers!
Eric

For forecasts of the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling see
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2014/07/climate-forecasting-methods-and-cooling.html

Reblogged this on The Next Grand Minimum and commented:
If you have not read David Archibald’s book, you should and then take action to prepare your family for the coming crisis.

JimS

What if we cook Chicken Little for dinner, and the global temperature remains relatively the same (inbetween 13 and 15 degree C) for the next 15oo years or so, or, until the next glaciation period commences?