It never fails. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones always bring out the manmade global warming alarmists, with their claims of unusually warm sea surface temperatures along the storm tracks. Of course those fictionally warmed sea surface temperatures were caused by rising CO2 emissions. We expected and saw that nonsense when Sandy struck the east coast of the U.S. mainland back in 2012. Not unexpectedly, data contradicted the claims. See the posts here and here.
The same unwarranted alarmist claims magically appeared when the two tropical cyclones (Iselle and Julio) threatened Hawaii last week. Iselle’s storm track is shown on the map to the right. (Please click on it to enlarge.) I’ve highlighted the coordinates I’ve used for Iselle’s storm track…before it reached Hawaii. Julio’s track was similar but ran a little north of Iselle’s. So, were the sea surface temperatures along Iselle and Julio’s storm tracks unusually warm, and have the sea surface temperatures there warmed during the satellite era?
WEEKLY DATA
The weekly Reynolds OI.v2 sea surface temperature anomalies for the coordinates of 15N-20N, 155W-120W, for the week centered on August 6, 2014, were above the 1971-2000 average. (Those are the base years used by NOAA for the Reynolds OI.v2 data.) But they were not unusually warm as shown by the horizontal red line. They have been warmer quite regularly since the start of the weekly data in January 1990. And it’s blatantly obvious that the sea surface temperatures have cooled there. The cooling rate is -0.3 deg C/decade since 1990, based on the linear trend shown in blue.
Weekly Iselle and Julio Storm Track SST Anomalies
MONTHLY DATA
The monthly satellite-enhanced Reynolds OI.v2 data stretches back as far as November 1981. The July 2014 sea surface temperature anomalies for Iselle and Julio’s storm tracks (shown in red) were not unusually warm, and the sea surface temperatures there have cooled since November 1981 based on the linear trend (shown in blue).
Monthly Iselle and Julio Storm Track SST Anomalies
HOW FAR BACK CAN WE GO AND STILL SHOW NO WARMING IN THAT PART OF THE EASTERN TROPICAL NORTH PACIFIC?
The next graph shows the NOAA ERSST.v3b-based sea surface temperature anomalies for the coordinates of 15N-20N, 155W-120W, from January 1880 to July 2014. I’ve highlighted the period of January 1930 through July 2014 in brown. Since January 1930, the warming rate of the sea surface temperatures for Iselle and Julio’s storm track is only +0.004 deg C/decade. That’s 4 one-thousandths of a degree C per decade. And as shown by the red horizontal line, the sea surface temperature anomalies back as far as the 1880s were comparable the July 2014 value…if you believe sea surface temperature data back that far.
Long-Term Monthly Iselle and Julio Storm Track SST Anomalies
YEAH BUT, YEAH BUT, YEAH BUT
History has shown, if I were to end the post there, then someone would say something to the effect of, Greenhouse gases have increased the amount of moisture in the air, making tropical storms worse than before.
To counter that nonsense, we turn to the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2 outputs of Specific Humidity, which represents the amount of moisture in the column of atmosphere. The units are kilogram of water vapor/kilogram of dry air. For Iselle and Julio’s storm tracks, there is nothing unusual high in the specific humidity for July 2014, and the trend since 1979 shows a decrease, not increase, in specific humidity southeast of Hawaii.
Monthly Iselle and Julio Storm Track Specific Humidity Anomalies
SOURCES
The weekly and monthly Reynolds OI.v2 sea surface temperature data are available through the NOAA NOMADS website here. The long-term monthly NOAA ERSST.v3b sea surface temperature data are available through the KNMI Climate Explorer. And the monthly specific humidity output of the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis-2 is available from the NOAA NOMADS website here.
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Stephen Rasey says: August 13, 2014 at 7:40 pm
Slightly OT but related Cumulative NOAA Tornado count in USA as of Aug 9, 2014
861,
Try looking at the Confirmed / Preliminary Count. Add the Confirmed months (only thru May now) with the remaining Preliminary and you get a count of 751. May alone had APR 220 Prelim 113 Confirm.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html
I see something interesting in your 1880 to present ssta chart. You know how I have always seen the cyclic pattern in looking at charts. Well, start with a line from 1884/85 to 1914/15. Follow that with a line from 1914/15 to 1946/47, and then draw a line from 1946/47 to 2006/07. It can then be noted that those lines follow the cooling in the late 1800s into the mid 1910s, which is then followed by the warming which ends in the late 1940s. Then that is followed by the cooling period up till the mid 1970s. After which the grand global warming occurs from 1976/77 to it,s peak in 2006/07. All the years are approximations from the way that I look at the data.
The ocean pattern in the zone that chart encompasses fits that pattern of warming/cooling to a ‘T’. Also noteworthy, is the period of years from 1978 till 1998. Note that this is the longest sequence of years with so little variation between the highs and lows. That correlates with the grand warming. Is this particular spot in the ocean a ‘key’ spot for some reason? Lastly note that since 2006/07 the following years revert back to a higher variation between highs and lows as is seen prior to 1976 and back to the beginning years of the chart. One last note, look at the years between 1919 till 1930, where it can be seen that this warming period also shows a similar streak of less variation in high to low, although it does not extend for as many years as the recent warming period. This particular zone could well be a keystone to global warming/cooling.
“”Follow that with a line from 1914/15 to 1946/47, and then draw a line from 1946/47 to 2006/07.”” That line should have read “…from 1946/47 to 1976/77.. and then from 1976/77 till 2006/07”.
Andrew,
Just sent some beer money your way via your Fling funds link. Buy yourself and Bob a beer next time you meet. Thanks for the good work, both of you.
Joel
Does will combine three tropical storms?
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/08/18/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/orthographic=-136.69,14.72,1676
Look at the cool water just east of China from recent tropical storms stirring up the water:
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/mapwall/ssta.png
beng says:
Look at the cool water just east of China from recent tropical storms stirring up the water:
Exactly can be seen. Look at also at the Atlantic with Africa.
Here is the next global scare: Human induced warming REDUCES the number of natural and necessary hurricanes, tornados, and other weather events thus has a deleterious affect on both marine and land biospheres. Our children will not know what hurricanes are. Therefore we must curtail human [fill in with your favorite activity] in order to save Earth and return to our natural and good variable and unpredictable weather state.
Us see vortex in the Pacific.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=misery_index/orthographic=-110.05,17.15,1106