Allan MacRae says: Thanks to Alberta Jacobs
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A Gleissberg Solar Minimum?
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August 17, 2014 2:50 pm
henry says:
“honey…”
Maybe you should reconsider using that kind of familiarity, Henry. It might not be appreciated.
Maybe this is just a cultural thing, in which case, please just take this as friendly advice.
REPLY: I second that, it isn’t appreciated. Henry is out of bounds here. – Anthony
August 17, 2014 3:23 pm
From moreCarbonOK[&theWeatherisalwaysGood]HenryP on August 17, 2014 at 1:41 pm:
I seriously have started to think now that I am wasting my time further with this, even though I am afraid that mankind, 7 billion and counting, might not be ready for the global cooling that will hit us, eventually.
Henry, two views to consider:
1. By the demands of evolution, we adapt or die. The cooling will be a stress that will winnow out the weak, which is natural selection. We have an incredible dissonance, evolution is accepted while what it means to be involved in evolution is rejected, fought against. We have evolved beyond evolution, they say, and adapt with the products of our intellect. Fine. But either way, if we cannot figure out how to survive and prosper whatever will come, we deserve the result.
2. As creations of the Living God, we were appointed stewards over this world, which does not mean we are to preserve it like a museum exhibit, but maintain and enhance its productivity and profitability, put it to best use, for the benefit of the owner and we stewards. If we cannot do so whatever will come, we show ourselves to be poor stewards, thus poor creations, and deserve what is to come.
You may pick a view. I’m comfortable with both.
@Pam
Station selection is random. the test is to take 50 or so [preferably] other stations {as long as the no of stations is equal NH and SH and they all balance around zero latitude, or as close as possible.]
I have shown how I did get my results….
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/11/a-gleissberg-solar-minimum/#comment-1711186
August 17, 2014 4:48 pm
@ur momisugly vukcevic on August 17, 2014 at 12:18 am:
Really? Ah, it’s been so long, I remember something like you saying “Vuk etc” was used when “we” were being playful. The “we” I remember for how it stuck out, didn’t know you were using it like a research paper “we”.
Thus I retract that “Vuk etc” was you and someone else.
Your first point is not relevant, as I was indicating if you used “Vuk etc” now there would be charges of moderation evasion.
The comment where it was mentioned is now lost in the archives. Although your use of multiple handles was confusing. I found this post where you used “Vuk etc.”, “vukcevic”, AND “vukcevic etc.”
At least now your handle is consistent.
August 17, 2014 5:21 pm
Henry. No and no. To duplicate your study one would need to know the stations you used (and would need to adhere to standard research protocol which you did not). Why is this not plain to you? I take it you have not studied research design nor taken an advanced course in statistical analysis.
August 17, 2014 5:28 pm
kadaka, to educate you on the female use of the term “we”, there is the we “we”, the you “we”, and the me “we”. You must familiarize yourself with which meaning we use when requesting that a trip to the park is needed, a stated desire to go to the grocery store, the lawn be mowed, the house be painted, or the need for midol, a glass of red wine, and chocolate (not particularly in that order).
August 18, 2014 12:14 am
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
August 17, 2014 at 4:48 pm
………………
You continue with your rubbish. I don’t know, or am interested to know who you are.
First you speculate who may or not may be members of my family, now you continue with your inventions (to say it politely).
I do not mind you attacking my let’s call it my ‘science’ but with this personal attacks you are stooping too. I don’t think anyone ever on this or other couple of blogs I comment, doubted who is either ‘vukcevic’ or ‘Vuk etc’.
For the benefit to other few readers who might be swayed by your ranting, I use or used three devices pc, laptop and an old tablet, the last ‘user name’ from whichever device, blog or log in was used (wordpress or Fb) is automatically entered. To override, if I noticed change, it requires logging out and logging in, just lot of pain.
I use to read your comments, but now I realise whatever you write lacks credibility.
Good day to you.
August 18, 2014 4:56 am
From “vuk” on August 18, 2014 at 12:14 am:
For the benefit to other few readers who might be swayed by your ranting, I use or used three devices pc, laptop and an old tablet, the last ‘user name’ from whichever device, blog or log in was used (wordpress or Fb) is automatically entered. To override, if I noticed change, it requires logging out and logging in, just lot of pain.
You must use strange software. When I wipe cookies I have to re-enter my handle and email before posting here, which sets the appropriate wattsupwiththat-dot-com cookies, which are remembered for next time. I need no logging in for commenting.
If I’m playing with my WordPress blog and load a WUWT page with Javascript on, the comment box warns me I’m commenting with that account and lets me log out. Doing so merely “logs me out” for commenting on WUWT pages, not out of WordPress. My comments will use the typed-in details, no automatic filling in. Likewise with my Twitter login, which I just checked, “logged out” on WUWT but still logged on to Twitter. Didn’t check Facebook.
Testing is completed. I have to allow Javascript for both wp-dot-com and wattsupwiththat-dot-com to have the WP/Twitter/Facebook options. Block either or both and it’s just the typed-in details. Neither are required for general functionality, I use the site just fine without them.
So to override the auto-fill of logged-in account details, I just click to “log out” for WUWT commenting, or just leave Javascript off, either all or selectively, and type in my details once, next time the auto-fill will be from the cookies. I have no need for logging out and in to change my handle.
Of course, different software and OS combinations, different browser settings, etc, YMMV.
August 18, 2014 4:58 am
kadaka said:
“AMO was going up in 1993 before SSN headed up in 1996”
I thought that I had clear this one up better, it did not go up strongly in fact until 1995, where the solar forcing declined more strongly from:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-amo/from:1990/to:1996
August 18, 2014 5:55 am
Pamela
To duplicate your study one would need to know the stations you used
Henry says
You[still] have not understood the uniqueness of my sampling procedure, but I have given you the example of NY Kennedy airport.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/files/2013/02/henryspooltableNEWc.pdf
The test is whether my sample of 27 weather stations from each HS was random or not and whether or not any other random sample, using the same sampling technique, would re-produce the same results.
I say it will [ because I know my sample was taken randomly]
To duplicate the results you must exactly take another sample, of other weather stations. Not the ones that I have chosen.
But I am probably trying to explain statistics to you and you have not studied that?
August 18, 2014 6:00 am
@Pam
Sorry,
I quoted the table, instead of the updated blog post
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
which explains the results for NY Kennedy airport, as an example.
August 18, 2014 8:06 am
http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/08/new-paper-finds-solar-activity-more.html
Very interesting showing a solar /climate connection. Accumulated solar activity causing the warming since the end of the Little Ice Age. Also the late last century spike.
August 18, 2014 9:44 am
kadaka says
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/11/a-gleissberg-solar-minimum/#comment-1711235
henry says
I have been wondering about what response to give here, so I took some time.
Note that Hitler came to power during the dust bowl drought years 1932-1939, and if I remember correctly it was hyper inflation [in Germany] that actually brought him to power. That sort of thing will come again [from 2021] if there is a shortage of food. Note that a large % of our current corn comes from the great plains of America.
The worst story I have ever sat and listened to, was from a hungarian jew who survived the death camps. Suffice to say that I learned from that story that if hunger is staring you in the face at the front door, civilization is gone out through the back door.
In this respect Pams video was prophetic
mocking me….
Hitler needed a scapegoat for all the ills of the world and he chose the jews. He looted everything they had [including the gold from their teeth] and then killed them.
The next Hitler will chose the followers of Jesus Christ.
Just so you know,
Last chapter of my book:
http://www.hourofpower.org/global/south_africa/news/JesusisGodbook.doc
August 19, 2014 10:31 am
Henry said
the worst story I have ever sat and listened to, was from a hungarian jew who survived the death camps. Suffice to say that I learned from that story that if hunger is staring you in the face at the front door, civilization is gone out through the back door.
Henry says
World at War series, BBC, the episode on the holocaust. You should see it. You will never forget it.
In a recent paper “The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle and its Association with Extended Minima”, to be soon published in JGR/Space, Feynman and Ruzmaikin discuss how the recent extended minimum of solar and geomagnetic variability (XSM) mirrors the XSMs in the 19th and 20th centuries: 1810–1830 and 1900–1910.
Edited abstract:
Such extended minima also were evident in aurorae reported from 450 AD to 1450 AD. The paper argues that these minima are consistent with minima of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycles (CGC), a 90–100 year variation observed on the Sun, in the solar wind, at the Earth and throughout the Heliosphere. The occurrence of the recent XSM is consistent with the existence of the CGC as a quasi-periodic variation of the solar dynamo. Evidence of CGC’s is provided by the multi-century sunspot record, by the almost 150-year record of indexes of geomagnetic activity (1868-present), by 1,000 years of observations of aurorae (from 450 to 1450 AD) and millennial records of radionuclides in ice cores.
The “aa” index of geomagnetic activity carries information about the two components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal and poloidal), one driven by flares and CMEs (related to the toroidal field), the other driven by co-rotating interaction regions in the solar wind (related to the poloidal field). These two components systematically vary in their intensity and relative phase giving us information about centennial changes of the sources of solar dynamo during the recent CGC over the last century. The dipole and quadrupole modes of the solar magnetic field changed in relative amplitude and phase; the quadrupole mode became more important as the XSM was approached. Some implications for the solar dynamo theory are discussed.
* Says The Hockey Schtick: If it is true that the current lull in solar activity is “consistent with minima of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycles,” and the Gleissberg Cycle is a real solar cycle, the current Gleissberg minimum could last a few decades before solar activity begins to rise again.
* Solar physicist Habibullo Abdussamatov predicts the current lull in solar activity will continue until about the middle of the 21st century and lead to a new Little Ice Age within the next 30 years.