Sun said to be “bi-modal”
While many, including the IPCC, suggest the modern Grand Maximum of solar activity from 1950-2009 has nothing to do with the 0.4C global warming measured over that time frame, it does seem to be unique in the last three millennia.
from CO2 Science: A 3,000-Year Record of Solar Activity
What was done
According to Usoskin et al. (2014), the Sun “shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions.” Now, however, in an attempt to overcome such uncertainties, in a Letter to the Editor published in the journal Astronomy and Astrophysics, Usoskin et al. “present the first fully adjustment-free physical reconstruction of solar activity” covering the past 3,000 years, which record allowed them “to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of detail.”
What was learned
As illustrated in the figure below, the authors report there is “remarkable agreement” among the overlapping years of their reconstruction (solid black line) and the number of sunspots recorded from direct observations since 1610 (red line). Their reconstruction of solar activity also displays several “distinct features,” including several “well-defined Grand minima of solar activity, ca. 770 BC, 350 BC, 680 AD, 1050 AD, 1310 AD, 1470 AD, and 1680 AD,” as well as “the modern Grand maximum (which occurred during solar cycles 19-23, i.e., 1950-2009),” which they describe as “a rare or even unique event, in both magnitude and duration, in the past three millennia.”
Further statistical analysis of their reconstruction revealed the Sun operates in three distinct modes of activity – (1) a regular mode that “corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67,” (2) a Grand minimum mode of reduced solar activity that “cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode” and which “is confirmed at a high confidence level,” and (3), a possible Grand maximum mode, but they say that “the low statistic does not allow us to firmly conclude on this, yet.”
What it means
Usoskin et al. (2014) write their results “provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth’s climate.” They also illustrate the importance of improving the quality of such reconstructions, in light of the fact that previous reconstructions of this nature “did not reveal any clear signature of distinct modes” in solar activity.
Unfortunately, it was beyond the scope of this paper to address the potential impact of solar activity on climate. Yet the reconstruction leaves a very big question unanswered — What effect did the Grand maximum of solar activity that occurred between 1950 and 2009 have on Earth’s climate? As a “unique” and “rare” event in terms of both magnitude and duration, one would think a lot more time and effort would be spent by the IPCC and others in answering that question. Instead, IPCC scientists have conducted relatively few studies of the Sun’s influence on modern warming, assuming that the temperature influence of this rare and unique Grand maximum of solar activity, which has occurred only once in the past 3,000 years, is far inferior to the radiative power provided by the rising CO2 concentration of the Earth’s atmosphere.
Reference
Usoskin, I.G., Hulot, G., Gallet, Y., Roth, R., Licht, A., Joos, F., Kovaltsov, G.A., Thebault, E. and Khokhlov, A. 2014. Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity. Astronomy and Astrophysics 562: L10, doi: 10.1051/0004-6361/201423391.
Abstract
Aims. The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions. Here we present a new adjustment-free reconstruction of solar activity over three millennia and study its different modes.
Methods. We present a new adjustment-free, physical reconstruction of solar activity over the past three millennia, using the latest verified carbon cycle, 14C production, and archeomagnetic field models. This great improvement allowed us to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of details.
Results. The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67. The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level. The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion.
Conclusions. The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes – a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun. These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth’s climate.
milodonharlani says:
August 7, 2014 at 10:05 am
………..
Hi don harlani
Not knowing what word ‘CACA’ meant, I entered it in the ‘google translate’ and since it was already preset for French it came with:
Definitions of caca : noun Excrément
Translations of caca : noun pooh
Is it what you actually meant ?
Steven Mosher says:
August 7, 2014 at 9:53 am
______________
Well said and I agree.
The Warmists have told us it is only a coincidence that the warming in the last 50 years correlates with the most intensity series of solar magnetic cycles in the last 3000 years. We have been told by some that the solar magnetic cycle was not highly active in the last 50 years, we have been told that past warming and cooling planetary cycles did not happen and/or did not correlate with solar magnetic cycle changes, we have been told that the solar magnetic cycle is not heading into a weird Maunder minimum, and regardless of what is currently happening to the sun, we have been told that the weird Maunder minimum will not affect planetary cloud cover and will not affect planetary temperature.
It appears we will by observations have a chance to determine if planetary cloud cover is directly and indirectly modulate by solar magnetic cycle changes and by changes to the orientation and intensity of the geomagnetic field.
It will be interesting to see what the public and general scientific community reaction will be to significant and rapid planetary cooling. How quickly will the scientific community and the politicians abandon the Warmists and the Warmists’ ideology?
P.S. The geomagnetic field intensity for some unexplained reason suddenly starting in 1990s started to decline at 5% per decade and the geomagnetic north magnetic pole drift velocity suddenly increased by a factor of 10.
William: Swarm is the name of a set of three specialized satellites that were designed and launched by the European space agency, November, 2013 to try to understand why the geomagnetic field is abruptly changing. The following is a news release that discusses the first Swarm data. The Swarm data indicates as noted the geomagnetic field intensity is for unexplained reasons declining ten time faster at 5%/decade.
http://news.yahoo.com/earths-magnetic-field-weakening-10-times-faster-now-121247349.html
While changes in magnetic field strength are part of this normal flipping cycle, data from Swarm) have shown the field is starting to weaken faster than in the past. Previously, researchers estimated the field was weakening about 5 percent per century, but the new data revealed the field is actually weakening at 5 percent per decade, or 10 times faster than thought. As such, rather than the full flip occurring in about 2,000 years, as was predicted, the new data suggest it could happen sooner.
What Caused Recent Acceleration of the North Magnetic Pole Drift?
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010EO510001/pdf
The north magnetic pole (NMP) is the point at the Earth’s surface where the geomagnetic field is directed vertically downward. It drifts in time as a result of core convection, which sustains the Earth’s main magnetic field through the geodynamo process. During the 1990s the NMP drift speed suddenly increased from 15 kilometers per year at the start of the decade to 55 kilometers per year by the decade’s end. This acceleration was all the more surprising given that the NMP drift speed had remained less than 15 kilometers per year over the previous 150 years of observation. Why did NMP drift accelerate in the 1990s? (William: Interesting question. )
The ‘no Grand Modern Maximum’ of course also invalidates Evans’ ‘theory’
http://www.leif.org/resarch/SSN-HMF-TSI-Evans.png
Steven Mosher says:
August 7, 2014 at 9:53 am
…….
Agree, if a correction is required ( I have no reason to believe one way or the other) Dr. Svalgaard has methodically approached and pursued it, and probably is the best what anyone will get.
The corrections are not particularly radical, but leaving that aside, as far as the climate factor is concerned, if there is a link, than (IMO or better IMHO?) the phase of cycles in relation to the decadal changes of the Earth magnetic field is the decisive factor.
William Astley says:
August 7, 2014 at 10:28 am
The north magnetic pole (NMP) is the point at the Earth’s surface where the geomagnetic field is directed vertically downward. It drifts in time as a result of …
Where the northern magnetic pole [it is actually a south magnetic pole] is is pretty much irrelevant as its precise location at the surface is determined by rapidly changing multipoles. What is relevant is where the pole is seen from the solar wind and that is quite a different matter as basically only the dipole remains at great distances, see e.g. http://www.leif.org/EOS/eost11139-magnetic-poles.pdf
vukcevic says:
August 7, 2014 at 10:38 am
if there is a link, than (IMO or better IMHO?) the phase of cycles in relation to the decadal changes of the Earth magnetic field is the decisive factor.
There is no evidence for that.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 7, 2014 at 10:30 am
The ‘no Grand Modern Maximum’ of course also invalidates Evans’ ‘theory’
http://www.leif.org/research/SSN-HMF-TSI-Evans.png
@ur momisugly vukcevic on August 7, 2014 at 10:19 am:
“CACA” at other threads came to mean “Catastrophic Alarming Climate Activity” or somesuch.
“To answer your other question, yes, solar & cosmic influences are strongly correlated with climatic change ”
nope.
vukcevic says:
August 7, 2014 at 10:19 am
It’s a play on the Spanish word for excrement, commonly used in US English.
It stands for Catastrophic Anthropogenic Climate Alarmism. Same first two words in CAGW or three in CACC.
re: the Glessberg Cycle
In another thread we were discussing the Gleissberg Cycle. I don’t consider it a cycle in the same since as the 11 and 22 year cycles. Leif, now that a corrected reconstruction has been proposed in the literature, what does that reconstruction have to say about the Gleissberg observation?
Pamela Gray says:
August 7, 2014 at 11:12 am
now that a corrected reconstruction has been proposed in the literature, what does that reconstruction have to say about the Gleissberg observation?
There has been a ~100 yr variation of the size of sunspot cycles for the past 300 years, but it is doubtful that that represents a real and true ‘cycle’. Probably not. The ‘standard’ Gleissberg cycle is 80 years, or 88, or 90, or…
Ed Martin sorry.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/08/08/1500Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-95.39,33.65,1925
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 7, 2014 at 11:17 am
Pamela Gray says:
August 7, 2014 at 11:12 am
Joan Feynman (sister of Mosher’s bête noire Richard) just published on the Gleissberg Cycle. She’s OK with 90-100 years:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JA019478/abstract
The Centennial Gleissberg Cycle and its Association with Extended Minima†
J. Feynman* and A. Ruzmaikin
Abstract
The recent extended minimum of solar and geomagnetic variability (XSM) mirrors the XSMs in the 19th and 20th centuries: 1810–1830 and 1900–1910. Such extended minima also were evident in aurorae reported from 450 AD to 1450 AD. This paper argues that these minima are consistent with minima of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycles (CGC), a 90–100 year variation observed on the Sun, in the solar wind, at the Earth and throughout the Heliosphere. The occurrence of the recent XSM is consistent with the existence of the CGC as a quasi-periodic variation of the solar dynamo. Evidence of CGC’s is provided by the multi-century sunspot record, by the almost 150-year record of indexes of geomagnetic activity (1868-present), by 1,000 years of observations of aurorae (from 450 to 1450 AD) and millennial records of radionuclides in ice cores. The aa index of geomagnetic activity carries information about the two components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal and poloidal), one driven by flares and CMEs (related to the toroidal field) the other driven by co-rotating interaction regions in the solar wind (related to the poloidal field). These two components systematically vary in their intensity and relative phase giving us information about centennial changes of the sources of solar dynamo during the recent CGC over the last century. The dipole and quadrupole modes of the solar magnetic field changed in relative amplitude and phase; the quadrupole mode became more important as the XSM was approached. Some implications for the solar dynamo theory are discussed.
How dare Feynman rely on history books for data from AD 450 to 1450!
“Steven Mosher says:
August 6, 2014 at 9:00 pm
“anxiously awaiting Dr. Svalgaard’s comments.”
there is no modern maximum.
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 6, 2014 at 9:26 pm
The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion.
says it all. there is no modern grand maximum. ”
Tell me, which way do I kneel? Do I kneel to the east, west, south, north from sw US? Really, I need to know where you are since only God can say “there is no modern grand maximum” since only God has infinite knowledge. REAL scientists would say “I see no evidence that supports a modern grand maximum in this,” But you two flatly deny the possibility completely, thus raising yourselves to deity. The only thing I know for a certainty is that 1+1=2, well, most of the time but depending on circumstances, 1+1 can equal 3, 4, 5, or even 10 if they create octuplets, perhaps even more!
IMO, Gleissberg Cycles approximate 99 years = (22 x 4) + 11. But solar cycles only average about 11 & 22 years. The variation is enough to get up around 90 without adding another half cycle.
sturgishooper says:
August 7, 2014 at 11:31 am
Joan Feynman (sister of Mosher’s bête noire Richard) just published on the Gleissberg Cycle. She’s OK with 90-100 years:
“The recent extended minimum of solar and geomagnetic variability (XSM) mirrors the XSMs in the 19th and 20th centuries: 1810–1830 and 1900–1910. “
She is stretching it a bit. Earlier she had argued for a strict 88-yr cycle, so she tries to go low. The Dalton Minimum was not 1810-1830, but rather 1800-1820 and from 1810 to ~2025 is 2*108 years which she would not be so OK with.
Tom O says:
August 7, 2014 at 11:34 am
only God can say “there is no modern grand maximum” since only God has infinite knowledge.
For most things one does not need infinite knowledge. E.g. I know that there were no big earthquake in San Francisco yesterday.
The CO2 Science site’s article on Usoskin et al. (2014) published in the journal ‘Astronomy and Astrophysics’ said,
{all bold emphasis mine – JMW}
= = = = = = =
I do not think it is unfortunate at all. One piece of applied reasoning at a time is acceptable and actually makes the dialog intellectually digestible. The dialog on the climate impact of solar will surely follow with other papers after this solar focus only effort by Usoskin et al. (2014) published in the journal ‘Astronomy and Astrophysics’.
It looks tom me like Solar Science has a strong and viable dialog going here that I think it is the best way trust in science is achieved in our modern culture.
John
Leif Svalgaard says:
August 7, 2014 at 10:10 am and August 7, 2014 at 10:41 am
There is no evidence for that. and There is no evidence for that.
There is no evidence that you looked at the evidence.
Both of us could learn from what an erudite American on one occasion said:
“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
“REAL scientists would say “I see no evidence that supports a modern grand maximum in this,” But you two flatly deny the possibility completely, thus raising yourselves to deity. The only thing I know for a certainty is that 1+1=2, well, most of the time but depending on circumstances, 1+1 can equal 3, 4, 5, or even 10 if they create octuplets, perhaps even more!”
Question: do you know for a certainty that “REAL scientists would say “I see no evidence that supports a modern grand maximum in this,”
To answer your question. there is no modern maximum. if you ask me what I mean by that i will explain that the best evidence we have suggests that there is no maximum.
rgbatduke: Your guesses are all built on the linearization fallacy — that in a complex, chaotic, nonlinear system you can examine an apparent linear correlation (even one with a physical argument to support it!) and extrapolate it.”
This obsession with fitting linear “trends” to everything that is not at all linear in its behaviour is one of the fundamental problems of climatology.
To a large extent it seems have it’s origin in an undeclared assumption that there is an underlying “global warming” trend in everything and the rest is just climatic “noise” that can be averaged out.
There is barely a graph ever published that does not have straight line driven through it.
TLS is a good example.
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=902
Just look at the data end it is clear that there are two step changes and no slope. However, just a few days ago there was a new paper which fitted two trends, one for the above period, and concluded accellerated AGW.
It seems much of climate science is a one trick pony, based on clicking the “fit trend” button in Excel.
John Whitman says:
August 7, 2014 at 11:49 am
As a “unique” and “rare” event in terms of both magnitude and duration, one would think a lot more time and effort would be spent by the IPCC and others in answering that question.
As there very likely wasn’t any Grand Maximum, it would seem to me that no more time and effort need be expended.
Solar Science has a strong and viable dialog going here
More like a desperate rearguard action, by a dwindling [but vocal] minority trying to protect their funding.