From NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and “Earth’s thermostat”
A train of developing tropical low pressure areas stretch from the Eastern Pacific Ocean into the Central Pacific and they were captured in an image from NOAA’s GOES-West satellite on August 1. The train of five tropical lows include the remnants of Tropical Storm Genevieve and newly developed Tropical Storm Iselle.
![atrainof5tro[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/atrainof5tro1.jpg?quality=83)
NOAA manages the GOES-West and GOES-East satellites. Data from the satellites are used to create images and animations from NASA/NOAA’s GOES Project at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.
System 91C
The western-most tropical low pressure area lies to the west of Genevieve’s remnants. That low is designated as System 91C. At 0600 UTC (2 a.m. EDT), the center of System 91C was located near 12.0 north latitude and 167.3 west longitude, about 850 miles southwest of Honolulu, Hawaii. 91C has a low chance of developing into a tropical depression over the next couple of days.
East of System 91C lie Genevieve’s remnants. NOAA’s Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) issued the final warning on Post-tropical cyclone Genevieve on July 31 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT). At that time it was centered near 13.0 north latitude and 151.1 west longitude, about 1,255 miles east of Johnston Island. It was moving west.
Genevieve’s Remnants
At 8 a.m. EDT on August 1, Genevieve’s remnant low center was located about 500 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. CPHC noted the atmospheric conditions are only marginally favorable for its redevelopment over the next few days as it moves westward near 10 mph.
System 96E
Continuing east, System 96E is tracking behind Genevieve’s remnants. System 96E is another developing low pressure area with a minimal chance for becoming a tropical depression. The CPHC gives System 96E a 10 percent chance of development over the next two days. It is located in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, about 1,275 miles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Satellite imagery shows the low is producing minimal shower activity. CPHC noted that upper-level winds are currently not conducive for development, but they could become a little more favorable in a few days while the low moves westward at around 10 mph.
Tropical Storm Iselle
Behind System 96E is the only developed tropical cyclone, Tropical Storm Iselle. Iselle is located east-northeast of System 96E. Tropical storm Iselle was born on July 31 at 2100 UTC (5 p.m. EDT). On August 1, Iselle’s maximum sustained winds were already up to 60 mph (95 kph). At 5 a.m. EDT (2 a.m. PDT/0900 UTC).the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 13.5 north and longitude 124.6 west. Iselle is centered about 1,160 miles (1,870 km) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico.
Fifth Area of Low Pressure
The fifth tropical low pressure area is east-southeast of Iselle. That area is a tropical wave that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. That wave is located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The National Hurricane Center noted that environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days while it moves westward at 10 mph. NHC gives this low a 30 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next two days.
Ric Werme says:
August 2, 2014 at 7:57 pm
“I’m not sure about using Skew-T charts for understanding how OLR makes it through Greenhouse gases and whatnot….”
Ric, no, the Skew-T charts have nothing to do with GHG. They are purely used to understand the vertical structure of the atmosphere in temperature, moisture & pressure…and sometimes wind.
“mpainter, that image would seem to disprove your claim that high cloud tops radiate well.”
heh – indeed…
“JKrob, does this image prove that GHGs play a minor to nearly non-existent role at current CO2 levels?”
Well, it sure adds to the pile of evidence along with all the other things that show CO2 is a trace gas that has a trace effect on temp. Vegetation sure likes it though! It is the true GREEN gas.
Jeff
Every atmospheric physics professor teaching the thermodynamics of TC will tell you that TC are Carnot Heat engines, with about delta -100 K between T1 and T2. They will also tell you that T2 is temp at the top of the spreading layer of TC in the lower stratosphere. That is where the latent heat is dumped, and then it radiates to space as IR.
Whatever you think your satellites are measuring in a normal tropical atmosphere, TC’s are obviously are fooling you. Further you refuse to read any text book, or online text or talk to an atmospheric physics scientist on TC energy flows.
My original point stands. that is you refuse to accept TC doump ocena surface heat into the space as IR. You have gone beyond simple ignorance to willful ignorance. The commenters and guest posts by Anthony deal with willful ignorance all the time here at WUWT. Join the club.
errata on . “refuse to accept TC doump ocena surface heat into the space as IR”
should read, “refuse to accept that TC’s pump ocean surface heat (top 30 meters or so) into space as IR energy.”
JKrob: Ummm, if I may…-40F to -60F is not alot of heat to “eject it as IR into space” compared to what is at the surface. The tops of thunderstorms, especially tropical types (taller tropopause) are *COLD* not hot. The main thing these clouds do is wring out moisture and block the 80-90F heat at the surface from escaping to space. All the latent heat does is help the cloud to grow & wring out more moisture to fall as rain.
I don’t think you have accounted properly for all of the heat transfers. To start with, the upper troposphere radiates approximately proportionally to its absolute temp to the 4th power, despite its being “cold” compared to the ocean surface. When the “hot” water from the surface cools and then freezes on its way up (before falling again as ice and rain) it warms the atmosphere into which the energy is lost in the cooling and freezing process. If, for example, the upper troposphere warms from 203K to 205K, then the upper troposphere increases its radiation rate from a constant time 203^4 to a constant times 205K. This increased radiation rate is not negligible. When the latent heat “[wrings] out more moisture”, as you put it, the surrounding atmosphere warms, at least temporarily until it radiates the extra energy away. That is at the top.
At the bottom, the falling rain, in your subsequent telling, is denser than the surface to which it returns, so it sinks without warming that surface. Surely the kinetic energies in the blowing wind and falling raindrops cause some mixing: the rate of mixing and the rate of heat diffusion are at least comparable to the rate of “sinking” of those incredibly dense rain drops, so there has to be at least a mixture of cooling in the upper foot of the surface, and the sinking of those raindrops. You have undoubtedly watched surfaced waters during storms and observed that the surfaces are churned?
These transfers, mixing of the surface waters and falling raindrops, heating and radiation increase at the tops of the cyclonic storms — have they been studied and the rates of heat transfer calculated? As calculated at two of the links I acknowledged above, substantial amounts of energy are transferred from on low to on high in a short period of time. Perhaps detailed studies at the surface and tops of the storms have been carried out?
oops: should read “to the same constant times 205^4”.
I wish my proofing were as good before I post as after I post.
highflight56433, let me be clearer. In Walker cell circulation warmed air rises creating low pressure under the cumulonimbus clouds. No matter what warmed it. I should have said that heat from SW and LWIR rises creating the low pressure system that keeps the Walker Cell system working. It is the heated air from radiation that rises. The clouds do not prevent this. The clouds are evidence that warmed air is rising, not getting blocked from doing so.
mpainter says:
August 2, 2014 at 7:45 pm
The cool tracks have been know for a long time, as has hurricane weakening due to being stationary and having the SST cool under the storm.
The heat the water loses is transferred to the hurricane outflow.
That individual Tstms don’t cool the SST is news to me, however, I’ve never lived in the tropics. My guess is that the storms are too small and drop too little rain (say an inch or two) to make a significant difference in SST temps. Hurricanes can drop a foot or two of rain and still have some to give. Also, their strong wind mixes the upper layers of the ocean and that also brings up cooler water from below the surface.
JKrob: If you have an issue with any specific statements, address those specificly…with references please 🙂 All my statements are from general meteorology, Skew-T operations/forecasting & weather satellite operations.
Are those for equilibrium conditions, as the Clausius-Clapayron relations?
Ric Werme says: August 2, 2014 at 3:07 pm
Sorry if I missed your noting the lapse rate. The cause of the Chinooks is a pressure differential, ie. a Low sets up east of the Rockies and a High pressure system to the west, and the pressures try to equal. This would seem to me to be why the warmer air does not just loft up. Also the wind speed is often well above hurricane force, as high as 100 mph or more, so there is a lot of momentum.
Ric Werme
The issue was never put as how well cloud tops radiate, but rather do they radiate the latent heat involved in convection. JKrob says they do not, I say they do. All Jkrob will say in response to my arguments is “give references”. OK krob, get any introductory text to meteorology and it will tell you what I have tried to tell you here: latent heat is transported aloft by convection and radiated at the cloud tops, or so my textbook and instructor maintained. How Jkrob manages to ignore such fundamentals is a wonder but here he is on WUWT for the wide world to see.
Thanks to all, great info and the sat pics, something i have followed for awhile at nullschool wind an temp overlays etc. There is these shots though that I noticed a incredible amount of hot tropical air over a wide range being “sucked” down to about 20/25 degrees south of the equator between 2 cyclones at NZ and Chili. That may turn out to be something for the folks down under to keep an eye on.
Ok, so you need to be told, JKrob is playing with you. Much like when Leif S is playing with you most of what he is saying is not wrong but he is avoiding the important stuff.
http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/jra/atlas/eng/indexe_column1.htm
This will tell you most of it. Ask Jeff to explain Q1 and Q2.
Matthew R Marler, Ric Werme, Richard of NZ,
Thank you, to ALL of you. The basic thermodynamics and entropy physics of a developed tropical cyclone (TC) are well understood (how TC’s develop is still quite mysterious). What is happening is JKrob is refusing to educate himself using the vast resources of today’s internet. An internet where honest atmospheric physics professors have put their university lectures online for all to learn, textbook examples included. Jeff Krob is clinging to the cloud thermal emissions dogma that NOAA has taught him through his career, maybe he’s honest, but he’s naive and misguided. But that is willful ignorance. WUWT deals with willful ignorance all the time in the climate debate with global warmists
Again, thanks to all for the lively discussion. I want to end my posts on this thread with an apology to NOAA scientists and engineers who may read this blog. I did not mean to impugn the character of the many honest hard worker forecasters, statisticians, and engineers who work for NOAA. I know among the hundreds of forecasters, engineers, statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists there must be those who are silently skeptical of what comes out of their agency vis-a-vis climate change theatrics … from all sides. Remember to stay true to honesty and character. In our twilight years, no one wants to tell their grandchildren they lied just to keep their job
if thunder bumpers are so warm, why do they shed so many hail stones?
hello!
Help! Five one-eyed cyclones have taken my El Nino heat away!
JKrob and Ric Werme,
Thanks for taking the time to explain. Likely my views are too localized and fail to see the bigger picture. When I see 95 degree air go up and 32 degree hailstones come down, it is sort of like seeing a sailor come back to the boat with his wallet empty; you know he’s spent all his pay somewhere. You don’t want to ask where, but you know it is gone. However in the case of the atmosphere you do want to ask where the heat went.
As I understand your explanations, the heat spreads out along the tropopause and then comes down somewhere else. In the case of a hurricane it is via outflow and down into the eye, and in other situations it is through Hadley and Ferrel circulations, but in the end it is not lost to outer space, and returns. (To use my sailor analogy, the sailor may be broke but the bars and whore houses are rich.)
Now I need to further my education with a few questions.
First, is the heat aloft, (before it comes down somewhere else,) a reason some were expecting to see “tropical hot spots”? (The ones that haven’t yet manifested.)
Second, though cloud tops only lose a third the heat of a cloudless desert, a third is not zero. Are the clouds reflecting more heat down than they release to space, and having a net warming effect, even as I shiver in a heap of hailstones down at the surface?
In case you wonder at my curiosity, it has nothing to do with hurricanes. It has to do with the fact that, besides Hadley and Ferrel Cells, and Hadley and Ferrel circulations, there is suppose to be a Polar cell and a Polar circulation, but this year it keeps getting messed up, and rather than a high pressure atop the Pole there is often a low pressure. I have been trying to alter my textbook concept of a Polar Cell and to visualize the altered reality.
I was seeing a polar low as being like a summer shower, for the net effect seems to be cooling, especially as the low weakens and fills in. Now I’m more confused than ever, for it seems that after the low’s uplift ceases, the descending air should be warmer, but it seems to be colder.
Caleb
See blockade of the southern polar vortex at a height of about 30 km.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_sh_f00.gif
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=130.66,-87.55,318
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=226.22,-40.18,481
I do wish people would stop using temperature as a metric for atmospheric heat content. Heat is measured in joules per gram or kilojoules per kilogram. A kilogram of air that contains both water vapor and water droplets will have hugely greater energy content than a kilogram of dry air even though both volumes of air are at the same temperature.
Some of you may also have noticed considerable wind (kinetic) energy in hurricanes (/sarc), depressions or as part of Hadley/Ferrel cell circulation and associated jetstreams. Where did you think this energy came from? How much energy is required to make all those wind driven ocean currents and waves or even a storm surge? That energy is not measured as temperature either.
There can be updrafts in Cb of over 100kts+ carrying liquid water well above 30,000ft which will eventually freeze giving up latent heat – does this heat somehow disappear? Latent heat release does not follow temperature driven Stefan Boltzmann ‘rules’ it happens on change of state releasing the latent heat for that state change of that mass.
If you are looking for ‘Earth’s Energy Budget’ then surely the ERBE and Aqua satellites are what should be used to measure incoming and outgoing heat and radiation, Even they make the probably unsafe assumption that only heat/light radiation is involved in Earth’s energy budget.
You can see a clear excess over the Antarctic.
http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/ozone/images/graphs/gl_dev/current.gif
Caleb
Notice how spread out cosmic rays.
http://terra2.spacenvironment.net/~raps_ops/current_files/rtimg/dose.15km.png
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startday=01&startmonth=01&startyear=2014&starttime=00%3A00&endday=03&endmonth=08&endyear=2014&endtime=00%3A00&resolution=Automatic+choice&picture=on
Hurricane strength increases with the surface temperature. You can see it, for example, the height of clouds and is used to drain excess heat to high layers of the atmosphere.
The surface temperature of the ocean is too low as to form a hurricanes in the Atlantic.
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.gif
mjc, thank you for the link to meteorologist Jeff Haby,s explanation on hailstones in hurricanes. I checked the current Typhoon in the pacific and the temperature at 500 hpa inside the Typhoon was 1.4C and outside it was 3C cooler.
This would mean the water droplets would have to rise higher in the atmosphere to freeze. This combined with the cyclonic winds would cause the hailstones to stay aloft longer, allowing them more time to melt before reaching the ground.
JKrob, thank you for the info you have provided on this thread. The cool tracks left in the sst’s from strong Typhoons then would be from the cyclonic winds rather than from convection.
Richard G @ur momisugly 4:31
The wind multiplies rates of evaporation hence the cool track. Conduction of heat away from sea surface is not significant, compared to that lost thru evaporation (latent heat). Thus it is seen that convection carries latent heat aloft in clouds.