Quote of the Week – NOAA: 'However, we think it’s likely that the atmosphere will get on board soon'

qotw_croppedAs a follow up to Bob Tisdale’s excellent post today, I just had to post this one from NOAA where they are so confident that the El Niño will happen, they expect the atmosphere to “get on board” with their predictions. The hubris is strong with this one…

EN…SO

By Emily Becker of NOAA CPC

Forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center haven’t declared El Niño conditions, even though the Niño3.4 index is currently around 0.5°C above normal, and has been for the past two months. What’s the hold up? In short, we’re waiting for the atmosphere to respond to the warmer sea-surface temperatures, and give us the “SO” part of ENSO.

SO what? The Southern Oscillation, that’s what. The Southern Oscillation is a seesaw in surface pressure between a large area surrounding Indonesia and another in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific; it’s the atmospheric half of El Niño. Since ENSO is a coupled system, meaning the atmosphere and ocean influence each other, both need to meet the criteria for El Niño before we declare El Niño conditions.

During average (non-El Niño) times, the waters of the western tropical Pacific are much warmer than in the east/central area (Figure 1). As warmer water extends out to the east during an El Niño, it warms the air, causing it to rise (lower pressure) (Figure 2). In turn, there is less rising motion (higher pressure) near Indonesia, due to the relatively cooler waters and overlying air.

Figure 1. Average state of ocean temperatures, rainfall, pressure, and winds over the Pacific during ENSO-neutral conditions. Figure 2. Generalized state of the ocean and atmosphere during El Niño conditions. NOAA image created by David Stroud.

The pressure changes influence the wind patterns. The average (non-El Niño) state of the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific features convection and rainfall over Indonesia, low-level easterly winds (the trade winds that blow from east to west), and upper-level westerly winds (Figure 1). These are the basic components of the Pacific Walker Circulation.

During El Niño, the system shifts: we see weaker trade winds over the Pacific, less rain than usual over Indonesia, and more rain than usual over the central or eastern Pacific. During some El Niño events, the trade winds along the equator even reverse, and we see low-level westerlies… but not every time. In fact, every El Niño is different, and both the ocean and atmospheric characteristics vary quite a lot from event to event–but that’s a topic for another post!

This difference from average air pressure patterns across the Pacific is measured a few different ways. One is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is based on a long record of pressure measured by two stations: one in Darwin, Australia (south of Indonesia) and the other in Tahiti (east-central tropical Pacific) (Figure 3). A negative SOI indicates Darwin’s pressure is higher than average and Tahiti’s is lower than average: El Niño conditions. (I keep saying “higher than average” because we’re not just comparing Darwin’s pressure to Tahiti’s, but rather comparing the anomalies at each. Imagine comparing the price of a gallon of water to that of a gallon of gas. A negative index is if the price of the water goes up, and the gas goes on sale. The gas may still cost more than the water, but it’s the relative changes in the two prices that matter.)

A second way we describe the air pressure anomalies over the tropical Pacific is the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). The EQSOI is based on pressure differences between two regions located on the equator (Figure 3). The SOI is monitored because it has a very long record available, stretching back to the 19th century; the EQSOI depends on satellite observations, which means it is a shorter record, but it gives a better picture of what’s happening right along the equator.

Figure 3. Two ways of measuring the Southern Oscillation: the SOI and the EQSOI. Both depend on comparing the strength of pressure anomalies in different parts of the Pacific basin. Map by NOAA Climate.gov.

As of the end of June, both the SOI and the EQSOI are at +0.2 (they have trended downward over the past few months), and the wind patterns are roughly average over the tropical Pacific, with some slight weakening of the trade winds toward the end of the month. There is increased convection in the central Pacific, but also some over Indonesia… all of which says we’re still waiting for the atmosphere to get dressed in its El Niño clothes and come out to play.

However, we think it’s likely that the atmosphere will get on board soon, and we’re still predicting El Niño, with about a 70% chance that conditions will be met in the next few months, and around an 80% chance by this fall. If you’re interested in how the ocean and atmospheric conditions are evolving, CPC has weekly updates available.

Thanks to David Stroud for his help with this post.

source: http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/en-so

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Sean Peake

Get on that Love Train

noaaprogrammer

Once an El Niño is officially underway, what are the indicators as to its duration?

Pamela Gray

El Nado is such a tease. The downside is this in my opinion: As long as we are in El Nado land, we do not have clear sky conditions that allows ol’Sol to recharge the equatorial band with IR energy. So the question is this: Under these conditions, are the oceans running out of gas?

H.R.

Translation: “Get yer butt in gear, ENSO. AGW is in a heap o’ trouble and we’re prayin’ to Gaia you’ll come through when we need ya.”

DontGetOutMuch

Didn’t Bob just explain that SOI was a noisy signal and that the trade winds were doing to opposite of what is needed for an El Niño? One thing is certain, I find Bob Tisdale much more reliable than NOAA.

Bill H

Area’s below Median El Nino temp.. No Kelvin wave to push it, and no easterly’s to drive it home.. Even the Arctic Polar low is disrupting the southern jets causing wild bends and turns. This will slow the formation of any easterly winds.
Its looking like an El No-No

Gary Pearse

I’m sure this must be a stupid question. Why, when all this warm water that has been sitting in the western Pacific must it have to move to the eastern Pacific to warm the atmosphere? Surely it is busy warming away wherever it is! When it blows over to the east Pacific to do its warming, doesn’t the western Pacific then cool off?

Harry van Loon

It looks tremely unlikely. It’s now the middle of July and the indicators, e.g. SLP distribution, are against a Warm Event.

Mario Lento

Gary Pearse says:
July 14, 2014 at 6:34 pm
I’m sure this must be a stupid question. Why, when all this warm water that has been sitting in the western Pacific must it have to move to the eastern Pacific to warm the atmosphere? Surely it is busy warming away wherever it is! When it blows over to the east Pacific to do its warming, doesn’t the western Pacific then cool off?
+++++++++++
The warm pool in the Western Pacific runs deep as it piles onto that coast. The ocean is higher there normally with the Easterly winds piling it up. When Easterlies relax, the ocean falls, spreading the warm water beneath over the surface and to the East… where it releases the stored energy up and down and all over sort of .
Mario

TimO

“Clap your hands if you believe!!” – Peter Pan

Don’t you just love how these people want conditions right to bring about their much hoped for catastrophe. If it happened, they’d be celebrating. It continues to amaze me that they don’t see anything wrong in that – If CAGW really existed and we really fried, with millions of deaths and the end of civilization, they’d be popping corks and dancing in the street.
And here they are, “However, we think it’s likely that the atmosphere will get on board soon”. Sure. Any minute now. What fun it will be. They can keep the money coming in and angry mobs won’t form. Maybe. Hopefully. The planet’s going to cooperate, right? They want to destroy civilization by legislation. You know, before the planet does, because that makes it all right. No one can blame them for it. Right? Right???
But only if they can get the warming restarted…

R. Shearer

VA administrators are on hand to help with any required “adjustments.”

HGW xx/7

Was it Trenberth that was gleefully declaring himself and his “phantom vortex of Xtreme(tm) hotness!” vindicated at the first mention of the forecasted El Niño? I wonder when he’s going to get around to declaring he was wrong. After all, these cosmetologists are the only true upholders of science, right? As such, I am sure they will be the first to admit they were wrong and had been swayed by a pathological bias. (And now for the /sarc.)
I love the percentages they use. It’s another source of wiggle room that they can use to say, “Well, we aren’t wrong. There was a chance that it might not show up.” Amazing how often these minor chances are having such a major effect on their credibiility.

Cynical Scientst

I don’t see anything wrong here. The article is obviously an attempt to explain things to the general public and uses colloquial language to do so. What is the problem?
To construe this as showing that they think they can tell the atmosphere what to do you have to turn off your common sense. The language in the article is clearly not intended to be interpreted so literally, as evidenced by the bit about waiting for the atmosphere to “get dressed in its El Niño clothes and come out to play”.
I call this nitpicking.

hunter

The farce is strong with NOAA.

RoHa

“they expect the atmosphere to “get on board” with their predictions”
It will if it knows what’s good for it.

Janice Moore

LOL, so ol’ Mister Atmosphere didn’t buy-in.
Heh.
Try bribery. It always works with the rest of the AGW Group.
*************************************************************
@ Mario Lento — nicely stated (at 6:40pm). Precisely! #(:))
Good to see you posting!

pat

14 July: Russia Today: Swimsuits for snow boots: Freak summer snow and hail hit Siberia, Urals (PHOTOS, VIDEO)
http://rt.com/news/172468-freaky-snow-urals-siberia/

Ben U.

As to whether the post is nitpicking as per Cynical Scientst July 14, 2014 at 6:56 pm, the real question is whether it’s reading too much into Emily Becker’s phrasings. But it’s darned hard to resist doing! This talk of expecting the atmosphere to “get on board,” it’s sounds so like then-VP Gore’s famous exhortation to then-President Bill Clinton to “get with the program!”

Janice Moore

Re: “Emily Becker’s phrasings”
“Out of the overflow of the heart, the mouth speaks.”
Proverbs something:something.
Freudian — NO doubt.

Mike from Carson Valley a particularly cold place that could benefit from some warming

NOAA’s CPC has given it 5 more months to “get on board” Surely some reverse trades can be congured up in that amount of time and if they can persist and the if the warmed water will move, and if they can foresee El Nino conditions sustaining for an additional 5 months. Well there you have it, a piece of cake. Just need to walk the walk now that talking the talk is done.

MinB

Cynical Scientst says:
July 14, 2014 at 6:56 pm
I’m in complete agreement.

Janice Moore

Re: “language in the article is clearly not intended to be interpreted so literally,” LOL, that is not what we are laughing about, here.
We are chuckling over the subconscious desires and motivations such a choice of words reveals.

philincalifornia

Waaaaaah, why isn’t the atmosphere cooperating and killing tens of millions of people and creating hundreds of millions of climate refugees and melting polar ice ? Waaaaah. I’m going to tell my Mommy ……..
SO …. SOD OFF you climate f*ckwits

D. B. Cooper

Hubris is to a Climate Scientist what Stuck on Stupid is to Barack Obama.

Cynical Scientst says:
July 14, 2014 at 6:56 pm
I don’t see anything wrong here.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
MinB says:
July 14, 2014 at 8:00 pm
Cynical Scientst says:
July 14, 2014 at 6:56 pm
I’m in complete agreement.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Aw. They’ve trotted out Tag Team Trolling again. They’re just so cute when they think they’re being original.

john karajas

Well you know the world’s climate has been truly misbehaving itself these last 17 years or so: look at all that pause in the world’s average temperature not performing as per the climate models. Here in Australia, after Tim Flannery predicted that the dams in Queensland would go dry, the heavens opened up and the bloody dams filled up with water.
Naughty, naughty Queensland rain! Daddy Tim will give you a spanking when he gets back home from his latest book selling tour!

pat

no doubt wishing El Nino come sooner rather than later! they could be disappointed:
14 July: Alaska Dspatch: Mia Bennett: Full steam ahead for Asian icebreakers in the Arctic this summer
Icefloe reports that this summer, seven non-U.S. icebreakers will undertake expeditions in Alaskan and Arctic waters. UNCLOS gives countries the right to conduct scientific research in other countries’ extended economic zones, though coastal states can deny permission if they believe that the research could “introduce harmful substances in the marine environment.”…
Although the U.S. has not ratified UNCLOS, the government largely adheres to it under customary international law. Accordingly, the government has granted permission to these seven international expeditions to conduct research in the U.S./Alaskan exclusive economic zone this summer. Two expeditions are from Canada, one from Russia, one from Sweden, and one each from China, Japan, and South Korea. The newly created Alaska Platform of Opportunity includes more information about the expeditions taking place in the waters surrounding the state…
The Chinese expedition on board the country’s icebreaker Xue Long may attract the most media attention for obvious reasons…even the Norwegian Coast Guard reportedly shadowed the Chinese-owned, Ukrainian-built vessel during its headline-making expedition in 2012…
Gas hydrates, or more specifically methane hydrates or clathrates, exist in the world’s continental margins and in permafrost. Thus, this potential energy sources forms a natural area of collaboration between countries like energy-hungry Japan and South Korea, which have no conventional hydrocarbons of their own but, being coastal states, do have continental margins, and permafrost-laden Alaska and Canada. Methane hydrates are a promising future source of energy, since natural gas can be theoretically extracted from them. Yet they are also a potentially dangerous source since the accidental release of methane through drilling activities could be disastrous for the atmosphere. The Environmental Protection Agency notes that methane has a 20 times greater impact on climate change than carbon dioxide over a 100-year period…
The Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation estimates that methane hydrate reserves could equate to a 100-year supply of natural gas for the country. In 2003, a research team involving Japanese and Canadian scientists, among others, successfully produced 470 cubic meters of methane gas at the Mallik site in the Mackenzie Delta north of Canada…
Regardless of the work being undertaken, Japan, Korea, and China will likely benefit symbolically from their presence in the Arctic. UNCLOS Part XIII explains, “Marine scientific research activities shall not constitute the legal basis for any claim to any part of the marine environment or its resources.” Yet by sending icebreaker expeditions every year to the region, the Asian countries — observers in the Arctic Council since May 2013 — enhance their claims as Arctic stakeholders. They are not making territorial claims, but they are building their Arctic identities all the same. Japan, Korea and China may not have land in the north of 66 degrees, but they still have a presence, and they are certainly capable of running tight ships on the Arctic Ocean year after year.
http://www.adn.com/node/1616956

pat

checking ice melt in the future:
14 July: Nature World News: Brian Stallard: NASA Lasers Preview Advancing Summer Melt
NASA will be taking a deep look at ice-melt near the polar Arctic in future summers, measuring thinning ice and snow-melt with pulses of green laser light.
According to the space agency, this first experiment will serve as a sneak peak of what’s to come in 2017 following the launch of the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESAT-2)…
Thorsten Markus, an ICESat-2 project scientist, explained in a statement that the MABEL data will help acquire the last pieces to an algorithmic puzzle being fitted together by his team.
“All the algorithms need to be tested and in place by the time of launch. And one thing that was missing was ICESat-2-like data on the summer conditions,” he explained.
“We have to design the algorithms to adapt to what we’re learning this summer,” senior researcher Ron Kwok added. “We don’t have any preconceived notions as to what we might see, and that’s why it’s so important to fly MABEL.”…
MABEL already took her first flight aboard NASA’s high-altitude ER-2 aircraft this past weekend, and will continue to make daily passes over Alaska’s glaciers, forests, lakes and Arctic waters until Aug. 1…
http://www.natureworldnews.com/articles/8046/20140714/nasa-lasers-preview-advancing-summer-melt.htm

James the Elder

HGW xx/7 says:
July 14, 2014 at 6:54 pm
Was it Trenberth that was gleefully declaring himself and his “phantom vortex of Xtreme(tm) hotness!” vindicated at the first mention of the forecasted El Niño? I wonder when he’s going to get around to declaring he was wrong. After all, these COSMETOLOGISTS are the only true upholders of science, right? As such, I am sure they will be the first to admit they were wrong and had been swayed by a pathological bias. (And now for the /sarc.)
=======================================================================
cosmetologist (ˌkɒzmɪˈtɒlədʒɪst)
— n a person skilled or trained in the use of cosmetics and beauty treatments
I think you’ve hit on it. Now we know who NOAA has really been hiring. This has to be the reason they’ve been putting lipstick on this pig for so long.

with about a 70% chance that conditions will be met in the next few months, and around an 80% chance by this fall.
Interesting wording. They make it sound like as time goes on, the chance of an El Nino is increasing. But that’s actually not what they said. Since “this fall” is only 3 months away, unless they mean “a few” to be less than three…. what they are saying is that they are predicting an 80% chance by fall, but if it doesn’t happen by then, they’re dropping their prediction to 70%.
In other words, they are hedging toward Bob Tisdale’s prediction but with language that makes it sound like doom still looms. How long until they synch up with Bob completely? I bet by end of August.

norah4you

Think one thing will happen, is as far from knowing as can be. Believers better pray in religious temples not call their belief thinking!

Sparks

Okay.. I’ll need a crystal ball and an “I want to believe” poster for my wall to out smart this joker!

Eliza

Ot But sunshine hours reports that Antarctic has NOT been melting (Sensors error) and has now been fixed. WE shall see if Cryosphere fixes this. Its possible that this time round they do not..

I’m in rural NSW and naturally scared of high heat and fire. I don’t like the words El Nino, but give me an El Nino of 2009 over a La Nina of 1939. And – would you believe? – here on the midcoast of NSW rainfall was better in the blockbuster El Nino years of 1997-8 and even 1982-3 than in the big triple La Nina of 1916-18. Not that we don’t stand a much better chance of good rain in La Nina years, but you’ve got to suspect that there are a few unknowns in operation. Really, one might even start to think that ENSO is just a rough, handy observation set, not a precise “mechanism” causing “events”.
The climate is like a lot of us skeptics. Not peer reviewed, unpublished, and doesn’t read any of the literature. The climate is actually a bit of a denier.

Streetcred

“However, we think it’s likely that the atmosphere will get on board soon”.

Translation: We hope to have a fiddle for the atmospheric data soon that will indicate an el Nino.

Streetcred

… and ENSO has slipped into “Neutral” range again.

Mac the Knife

NOAA reading the steaming entrails…..”I see portents!

Streetcred

July 14, 2014 at 8:41 pm | john karajas says:

Naughty, naughty Queensland rain! Daddy Tim will give you a spanking when he gets back home from his latest book selling tour!

I think “Daddy Tim” like spanking !

Rob

The “El Niño” is toast. Cold water entertaining coast of Peru and the
central Pacific.
This will be the 4th consecutive
ENSO bust for NOAA.
They seem not to know what the PDO
is???

Bob Tisdale has it down. The atmosphere is already “on board” as we are in the same regime as when the atmosphere actually cooled, albeit erratically and fitfully, between 1945 and 1976. At some point there will be a few moderate and strong Niño’s to counter the trend as there were then. To be sure, the cooling between 1945 and 1976 did not negate all the warming between 1917 and 1944, but rully folks, there was hardly any CO2 in the atmosphere by modern standards in 1917.
The escalator is essentially true, but it is a natural escalator.
BTW, tell your buddy Gavin he should open his website to dissenting comments. I’m no ideologue and I’ve had on and off camera discussions with some of his more enlightened participants like Joel Shore.
Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.

Cynical Scientst

@Davidmhoffer: Not sure what that “Tag team trolling” comment is supposed to mean, but it sounds like you are trying to make some kind of nasty insinuation about my motives. How about you calm down, take your medication, and go for a nice relaxing walk under a bus or something.

holts7

CROSBY, STILLS & NASH
“Marrakesh Express”
(Graham Nash)
Looking at the world through the sunset in your eyes
Traveling the train through clear Moroccan skies
Ducks and pigs and chickens call
Animal carpet wall to wall
American ladies five-foot tall in blue
Sweeping cobwebs from the edges of my mind
Had to get away to see what we could find
Hope the days that lie ahead
Bring us back to where they’ve led
Listen not to what’s been said to you
Wouldn’t you know we’re riding on the Marrakesh Express
Wouldn’t you know we’re riding on the Marrakesh Express
They’re taking me to Marrakesh
All aboard the train, all aboard the train

Man Bearpig

Looks like the Gore effect s–t spreader fan just splatted NOAA
I just checked the ENSO meter on this site and it has switched back into grey and heading north.
Interesting though that Anthropogenic Global Warming seems to depend upon a natural event to validate itself.

richard verney

davidmhoffer says:
July 14, 2014 at 9:17 pm
with about a 70% chance that conditions will be met in the next few months, and around an 80% chance by this fall.
//////////////////////////
The phraseology was very misleading. i do not know whther that was intentional, or merely sloppy English. Either way, it should not have been used in a scientific bulletin, still less in a release intended to inform the public
I read and re-read this phrease a couple of times before reaching the same conclusion that David has done. I was going to point this out, but David beat me to it.

William Astley

There is a physical reason for everything that is observed. Why is there suddenly dark blue patches on this graph?
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.7.14.2014.gif
The physical reason why El Niño events are suddenly being inhibited is the same physical reason why there are suddenly anomalously cold surface ocean temperatures in other regions.
It is astonishing the warmists can ignore the fact that proxy analysis unequivocally supports the assertion that the planet warms and cools cyclically (with a periodicity of 400 years and 1500 years, sometimes the cooling events are abrupt) with the warming and cooling events correlating with solar magnetic cycle changes.
It is interesting that anomalies and paradoxes (observations that cannot be explained and in the case of a paradox definitely indicates that there are fundamental errors in the base theory) are ignored or dismissed with an appeal to ‘chaos’.
Something must change to cause a change. The something that changed is the sun. Next question how and why did the sun change and how does the solar magnetic changes affect the earth? That is a rhetorical question for the warmists, as we all know they ignore observations and analysis that disproves their theory.

Tucker

From NOAA: “a 70% chance that conditions will be met in the next few months, and around an 80% chance by this fall.”
Umm … we’re only two months away from fall.

dccowboy

OMG — another ‘pause’ to be dealt with by imploring nature to comply with the theory.
I wonder where this heat is ‘hiding’ in an attempt to frustrate the ‘real’ scientists?

Leo Smith

@cynical scientst. (note spelling).
Right on cue, any criticism and it’s straight to the ad hominem.
Can’t you (a) learn to spell and (b) be a bit more creative in your trolling?

Bill Illis

I guess I wonder what they are basing the “forecast” on.
In March, April and May, one could have observed the subsurface conditions and said there was a good chance an El Niño would develop. But all those indicators have now moderated out to neutral.
If they are forecasting a fall El Niño now, they have to be forecasting that those initial conditions will “redevelop”. But no one has been able to forecast those initial conditions. So what is the forecast based on.