Peru says El Niño threat over, waters cooling and fish returning
LIMA (Reuters) – The worst of the potentially disastrous weather pattern El Nino is now behind Peru and cooling sea temperatures are luring back schools of anchovy, the key ingredient in fishmeal, authorities said on Friday.
Temperatures in Peru’s Pacific peaked in June, rising 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) above average levels, but have since retreated and will likely return to normal by August, the state committee that studies El Nino said.
“The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out,” said German Vasquez, the head of the committee.
Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html
h/t to Dennis Wingo
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A look at SST for the region shows cooler to neutral water in the majority, and no sign of the typical strong El Niño pattern:
![anomp.7.3.2014[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/anomp-7-3-20141.gif)
And another:
More at the WUWT ENSO Page
It had been argued that a “permanent El Niño” operated during the warm Pliocene, before the formation of the Isthmus of Panama. Better time resolution now suggests that there was indeed an oscillation then & in the Miocene, although perhaps less pronounced than now.
Possibly good studies warped by obligatory obeisance to the Great God Carbon:
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v471/n7337/full/nature09777.html
http://usssp-iodp.org/fellow/zhang/
@ur momisugly BobG and phlogiston…thanks for the advice. I have always run an av and firewall. My problem is likely due to the person who showed me how easy it is to install an operating system, Win XP Pro; but I was never shown how to set all of the details of XP Pro. I probably have the front door wide open for all that I know. Originally, it was never an issue because the only reason that I got a computer was on my son,s advice that the best games were pc. I never intended to end up in a dialogue on the internet. That changed when I first saw and heard one of Obama,s speechs back in 2008. I immediately had the understanding that he was going to be the next president, and I realized that I had something to say about that. My comment on Newsvine back then was that he was the right man for the wrong reasons. After that I started reading science related articles, my favorite read, and here I am 6 years later involved in this discussion.
Goldminor, the Earth comes equipped with its own intrinsic Sun shades (clouds) that have oscillations of their own such that more or less Sun is allowed in or reflected away from the very important equatorial band that is more perpendicular to the incoming insolation that reaches the ocean surface. The heat is then stored, mixed, and/or moved around riding in the multiple currents we have in the oceans stacked on top of each other as well as currents that branch and converge. The wind itself can shove a surface current of warm water underneath a cold one. With this kind of mixing, the oceans can store a tremendous amount of heat if given access to it under clear sky conditions, and it can take decades to rid itself of that heat. Why? We don’t often get the doldrums, that dead quiet windless ocean that now and then plagues the likes of pirates and those that tried to sale around the world. That’s when the ocean layers up like a good white Russian and evaporates heat (which by the way heats me up as good as a crackling fireplace). The Sun does not need to vary for this to happen, and indeed, the clouds are far and away more powerful in adjusting incoming watts than the Sun could ever hope to do in its sunspot cycles be they large and many or tiny and few.
@goldminer – I think that the probability is very high that your PC is “infected” with viruses or trojans. Your av and or firewall are probably ineffective, old or compromised especially given your older version of operating system.
On the topic – my view is close to Pamela Gray. I think there are feedbacks that tend to hold the earth in a stable climate. However, the feedbacks that maintain the climate as fairly stable may be influenced by changes in ultraviolet from the sun or GCRs during very deep solar minimums. These changes adjust the feedbacks. But I think natural changes can also adjust them. This makes it difficult to see patterns in the data.
@JoeBastardi: …”and its much more in line with a cold pdo SPIKE with the MEI cold preceding.” Joe, I follow your reasoning on that and interested in seeing the monthly PDO value for July when its updated. Meanwhile, the global climate experts have not given up hope and do expect, according to their expert climate models and in their expert of expert opinions, that their forecasted 2014 El Nino, although weakened, will continue to develop.
WMO ENSO Update
http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/enso_update_latest.html
Sail, not “sale”. Geesh Pam.
Back up your personal files and install Linux. Your odds of being “infected” with no active antivirus software will then drop from near certainty to near zero. These days Linux will do nearly everything you might want to do — browse the web, use Open Office, etc — for free, securely, reliably, and with a fairly moderate learning curve — about what you would expect if you were used to Windows but switched to an Apple. Switching to Apple is also a reasonable way to proceed, but then you have to buy new hardware and you are arguably a bit more vulnerable even so than you are with e.g. Ubuntu linux. (Note: If you play high end Windows based games, you might consider setting up a dual boot system and using Linux for everything BUT the games, although Ubuntu now supports Valve/Steam games native and even the “gaming advantage” of Windows may be quietly expiring.)
Otherwise, yes, you need to buy and install a high-end AV program and hope that it is successful in cleaning your system, or else back up your data, reinstall Windows from scratch (a daunting prospect for most people as it is probably more difficult than installing Ubuntu or Fedora Linux from scratch), THEN install AV software, and FINALLY restore your data. The AV software will then clean your personal files, which no doubt are trojanned as all hell. The problem is that it isn’t “cat and mouse” as it is unlikely that you personally are being attacked personally. The problem is that your system has some utterly automated viruses and trojan horse programs and perhaps some backdoor programs that permit other fully automated programs to connect to it at will and use your system to e.g. distribute SPAM or warez, steal your personal information and passwords as stored on the computer, etc. You typically get these by clicking on an infected piece of email or responding to a phishing probe sent by email, or by downloading and using “free” software from the internet or downloading content from e.g. pirate bay or any of the other gray-to-black sites, or by visiting an infectious web link with weak security set in your browser (or just using an insecure browser e.g. Explorer). But almost none of it works against Linux users (and less works if you install and use Chrome or Firefox as your primary browser, even under Windows), and comparatively little of it works against Mac users.
Once installed, malware is basically almost impossible to get rid of, especially if you don’t really know what you are doing and don’t have powerful AV software that knows what you are doing for you. I know exactly what I am doing and wouldn’t know how to begin to remove a deeply embedded worm without a custom tool in less than weeks of full-time work and would (and have in the past) just done complete re-installs from scratch. These days, I run Windows in backed up virtual machines under Linux, so if it gets trashed I don’t care, I just refresh the VM. Well, actually, I never ever run Windows at all, but if I did I’d use my old XP VM.
Hope this helps.
rgb
…and, XP Pro is no longer maintained by Microscoff, so at this point the infinite number of bugs in Explorer, Outlook, etc. are going unpatched. So even AV software cannot save you. You could upgrade, but IIRC you can no longer up to Win 7 (decent) and have to go with Win 8 (which sucks) or wait until Win 9 (which might be decent if the every-other-release pattern holds for another round). “Decent” as in sucks enormously, especially at the price, but isn’t an open suppurating wound exuding puss onto your keyboard like Windows-Anything unpatched or Windows 6 (Vista) or 8. I repeat — if you could manage to install XP, you can easily install Ubunto, CentOS, Fedora, for free, and never worry about viruses etc again. At this point, a windowing interface is a windowing interface…
rgb
rgbatduke
Microsoft would be interested in offering you an ambassadorial role promoting Windows. Are you available?
tonyb
El Nino Nanny, and those following the comments on the origins and meaning of the name, Kevin’s original post was just a quote from Chris Farley’s old sketch on SNL about el niño. 🙂
rip
rgbatduke says:
July 8, 2014 at 4:55 am
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Thanks for the advice. Moving to Windows 7 sounds like the move to make, although using Ubuntu as you describe also sounds worthwhile. I am fixed income so maybe I should try Ubuntu first. You are correct in that I only need it to go online for my reading. The only real reason why I pay 70$/month for internet is to stay with this conversation.
For California in desperate need of a water top-up to continue to be the breadbasket for the civilized world, this is indeed sad. I hope for at least a mild El Nino to keep the crops alive.
Gary Fraser says:
July 10, 2014 at 8:51 am
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California is in desperate need for good governance. The same can also be said about the US government. I have lived in this state my entire life. If I had the money to leave, then I would. I am sick of the left wing Democrats and all of their agenda driven regulations that are taking away personal freedoms from the populace. In that regard, let the La Nina rule. Let us see seven years of lean harvest, to be followed by more of the same.
On another note, I would like to update my ENSO forecast to reflect cuurent thoughts after viewing the changing conditions and how that applies to my speculative outlook on what drives the process. First off, the current conditions now fit my speculation like a glove. This, of course, is all coincidence at this point in time, at least until more time passes to either confirm or refute my speculation. Looking at the material I am using to make my determinations. I would now add that over the next several months, the ENSO will most likely not cool past neutral. I see a shift towards the end of September and into October that should move the ENSO pointer back to positive. Then in November it is likely that the dial will drop to negative ENSO through the end of the year and into early January. It will be after that point that an El Nino will develop, and it should peak in April of 2015. Let’s see if this comes to pass.