Peru says El Niño threat over, waters cooling and fish returning
LIMA (Reuters) – The worst of the potentially disastrous weather pattern El Nino is now behind Peru and cooling sea temperatures are luring back schools of anchovy, the key ingredient in fishmeal, authorities said on Friday.
Temperatures in Peru’s Pacific peaked in June, rising 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) above average levels, but have since retreated and will likely return to normal by August, the state committee that studies El Nino said.
“The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out,” said German Vasquez, the head of the committee.
Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html
h/t to Dennis Wingo
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A look at SST for the region shows cooler to neutral water in the majority, and no sign of the typical strong El Niño pattern:
![anomp.7.3.2014[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/anomp-7-3-20141.gif)
And another:
More at the WUWT ENSO Page
Absolutely.
At least, that’s what Leda said…
It was Zeus, I tell, you, Zeus…
Since the entire body of Christian scripture is hearsay, and since the Matthew and Luke versions of the Nativity do not take place within the same decade of one another (Herod the Great vs Herod Antipas, positively dated by the references to John the Baptist on the one hand and Quirinius on the other) it is difficult to make a more correct statement than this. I would refer people to the Jesus Project and to Bart Ehrman’s several well-researched and objective books on the subject. Not a word of the Bible would be admissible as evidence in a court of law, and in the court of “science” (as in “consistency with scientific evidence”) it fails every reasonable test from Genesis on.
“Matthew”, whoever he really was and whenever he really wrote, was anxious to establish Jesus as the Hebrew Messiah (in strong contrast to Luke), and went as far as to refer to an absolutely irrelevant passage in a cosmically failed prediction from Isaiah to establish the “prophecy” of Jesus’ birth. Isaiah doesn’t really refer to the mother of “Emmanuel” (which Jesus was never called) as a virgin either, but between Krishna, Romulus, Dionysus, Zoroaster, Attis of Phrygia, Horus, and Mithras, it was probably difficult for early Christianity to gain traction in god-rich Rome without virgin birth status (and so much more) so the various authors and redactors of the many “scriptures” (including the gnostics, both lost and found) redacted away and behold, Mary was a virgin and Jesus had all of the properties of all of these various deities — and more.
As for the current El Not-so-Nino — when it was predicted to be strong, I warned against believing the prediction since we cannot really predict the behavior of a nonlinear chaotic system we do not really understand and cannot numerically solve six to twelve months out. Now that it appears to be fading, let me repeat the warning, as it works both ways. The climate is a nonlinear chaotic system, and it is not constrained to do things “like” things it has done in the past, especially when “the past” consists of a handful of exemplars over a handful of decades of reasonably accurate observation. It could be as “like” the super ENSO of 1997-1998 as two peas in a pod in January, and the flapping wings of a coconut laden African swallow could cause it to be a complete fizzle by December. Or not — I may be exaggerating the timescales that can contribute from trivial perturbations or not. Since we cannot solve the actual physics problem We Do Not Know.
In other words, one cannot really count it out yet, either. It could fizzle, grow, fizzle, grow, and then grow into a monster, or it could fizzle and segue directly into La Nina. Bob Tisdale probably has decent intuition and at least as good an index of prior oceanic states to match up against as exists, but those states all corresponded to distinct climate histories, solar histories, coconut-laden swallow histories and so even Bob can do little more as a pundit than say “At this point my best guess of the odds are…”. There is no provable statement — or even heavily weighted probable statement — to be found here. I therefore simply wait for nature to take its course… as do we all, really.
rgb
With all due respect, the attraction of a steady-state Solar input and dynamic Earth producing its own climate via labyrinthine complexity has only beauty and no explicative value in support. It is a Ptolemaic impulse not a scientific one behind it.
The Earth is an open system deriving virtually all of its energy from the Sun. Centering on its layers of complexity isn’t thought, its day-dreaming. The El Nino is fizzling because there is no surfeit of heat to evolve.
rgbatduke says:
July 7, 2014 at 3:59 am
Where is the freaking moderator?
Dr. Brown (rgbatduke) must be a prophet 😉 He seems to speak my mind for me. It was through in-depth study of the Bible in a Christian group, wanting to believe, that I ended up studying my to an agnostic viewpoint. It was from a viewpoint of wanting to believe that our SUV’s were causing catastrophic global warming, that I studied my way into a viewpoint that “we don’t know” how the chaotic system of Earth will respond to our (minuscule?) contribution of CO2.
Thanks again for your contributions, Dr. Brown!
rgbatduke says:
July 7, 2014 at 3:59 am
As for the current El Not-so-Nino — when it was predicted to be strong, I warned against believing the prediction since we cannot really predict the behavior of a nonlinear chaotic system we do not really understand and cannot numerically solve six to twelve months out.
If you’re joining the long line of folks claiming “I told you so” about the el Nino no-show – well I might as well do the same.
Here is episode (scene) 1 of “Waiting for el Ninot” from April 15. (This at a time when a super el Nino was being hyped). “Waiting for El Ninot” is a parody on the play “Waiting for Godot” by Samuel Beckett (http://samuel-beckett.net/Waiting_for_Godot_Part1.html), the point being that Godot never comes. (i.e. – by inference – el Nino also will not come 🙂
phlogiston says:
April 15, 2014 at 1:19 pm
Estragon:
Nothing to be done.
Damn – cant you help me get this shoe off!
Vladimir:
Never mind your shoe – el Ninot is really coming this time.
Estragon:
Today?
Vladimir:
Yes – or if not, then tomorrow certainly.
Just as soon as those trades stop blowing and allow the Kelvin wave to surface.
Estragon:
And those trades will die down any day now, wont they?
Vladimir:
Any day now.
Here are all 7 scenes (episodes):
Scene 1:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/14/201415-el-nino-part-3-early-evolution-comparison-with-198283-199798-el-nino-events/#comment-1614090
Scene 2:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/18/the-201415-el-nino-part-4-early-evolution-comparison-with-other-satellite-era-el-ninos/#comment-1617885
Scene 3:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/10/the-201415-el-nino-part-8-the-southern-oscillation-indices/#comment-1634278
Scene 4:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/04/the-201415-el-nino-part-10-june-2014-update-still-waiting-for-the-feedbacks/#comment-1654822
Scene 5:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/08/is-one-of-the-objectives-of-all-alarmists-to-be-a-source-of-misinformation/#comment-1657794
Scene 6:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/23/the-201415-el-nino-part-11-is-the-el-nino-dying/#comment-1667623
Scene 7 (“8”):
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/06/the-2014-el-nino-is-looking-more-and-more-like-a-bust/#comment-1677987
goldminor says:
March 26, 2014 at 1:15 am
This current warmth in the ENSO should peak by June, then fade back to the cool side of the meter by the end of summer. This coming fall should be a La Nina with a peak in Nov/Dec. After that is where an El Nino will start at the beginning of next year. That El Nino will be short lived and ENSO will then head into a multi year strong La Nina. This all assumes that the connection which I think I am seeing turns out to have validity. At least it won’t take 80 years to find out if it is right….http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/24/enso-update-outlook-suggests-a-moderately-strong-el-nino-for-the-201415-enso-season/#comment-1598752
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Note that I did have the right answer back in March of this year. Although, I am known for being extra lucky at times. So I am completely willing to say that this is the biggest coincidence in the world. However, let us see if the ENSO swings back neutral around August, and if it heads back to El Nino in March/April as a stronger one than the recent event. That will hold till June after which it should steadily head towards a major La Nina. I will surrender the thought when nature proves the thought to be incorrect. In the meantime I get to revel in the glory. lol
ps…one other aspect to this method is that it also shows me why it cooled in September, why conditions shifted at the end of November, and why conditions shifted at the end of March. At least I think that this is what I have seen. I will await nature,s decision.
goldminor, do you have just a connection or a mechanism? Either way, what is it?
Here is something else which I noted, and it has come to pass, “” goldminor says:
March 21, 2014 at 10:40 am
I would forecast California and Oregon weather to be towards the cool side this summer. The cooler sst flows in the western North Pacific are going to push towards Alaska and the Pacific Northwest.””… goldminor says…http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/20/noaa-issues-spring-outlook-predicts-flooding-in-the-usual-places-more-drought-for-cali-and-the-southwest/#comment-1595756
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I was mostly correct with this thought, except for the cool intrusion towards Alaska which stayed further south. After a brief early warming at the beginning of May, the temperature has remained cooler than the last several years. June in particular was a very nice month as compared to the heat of the last several years. The temps turned up again as of last week and are slated to be in the 100s for the next week. I expect the end of July to show cooler temps, and stay like that through August and September.
Pamela Gray says:
July 7, 2014 at 9:17 am
======================
The connection is the Sun into the oceans and back out again. I do have some partial thoughts as to how and why, but at this time I wish to wait and see if nature is going to continue to follow in this pattern. After all this could be just a Grand Coincidence, and I am fully aware of that.
I use the following link for Oregon weather pattern forecasts. They strictly use analog years instead of models, but also mention those models in comparison to their analog years.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEIQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.oregon.gov%2FODA%2Fnrd%2Fdocs%2Fdlongrange.ppt&ei=Wcm6U8W7N9OmyASQooDYDw&usg=AFQjCNHhHqr-KPBcyM9vlgEC4lkTnBaIIQ&sig2=0i2UIo3O_lNeF3Y1hkCIgQ&bvm=bv.70138588,d.aWw
@ur momisugly Pamela Gray…I do have a way with seeing current phenomenon correctly. Here is another comment that turned out correct….
“”goldminor says:
March 31, 2014 at 5:03 pm
goldminor says:
March 24, 2014 at 5:40 pm
Antarctic sea ice is on the upswing again and is close to the +2sd line. the trend will likely cross above the +2sd line within 2 weeks.
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Antarctic sea ice just went above the +2 sd line. That only took one week. The steeper angle in the trend is noticeable. The regrowth should be rapid this year.””
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Well, actually, I am joining the short line of folks claiming “I didn’t tell you so” because what I did (and do) say is that there ain’t nobody that can tell somebody so about El Nino/La Nina. Even the people who told you so and happened to be “right” were telling you out of wishful thinking or numerology, and chaos laughs at both even as it randomly agrees with both — except when it doesn’t.
I don’t even “believe” that El Nino is — or isn’t — a no-show now. All I, or anyone, can fairly say is that there is at least one sheep in Scotland black on at least one side (math/logic joke) or in context, that there hasn’t been an El Nino worthy of the name so far. Ask again in three months, then again in six months, then again in nine months.
I think El Nino is basically unpredictable except in the very broadest of terms — e.g. its Fourier power spectrum isn’t unbounded and flat, with multiple “peaks” (if one can call them that) somewhere in the 2 to 8 year range, maybe, possibly. A high-resolution non-Markovian chaotic oscillator is not predictable on the basis of a handful of low-resolution Markovian observations.
rgb
goldminor, you have to be kidding. Of course the Sun warms up the oceans and that heat can also be evaporated back out again. Are you saying that one or the other changes? The Sun? The ocean? The atmosphere?
If you want to have your speculation vetted this is the place to do it. I jump out on a limb all the time with my speculations. I do that because I WANT them to be scrutinized!
Because of the drag created by big mechanisms, trends, especially when couched in terms of “cooler” or “warmer”, are easy to speculate on a year out. But we are in the knee of something. Either an uneasy yet stable seasaw period or an oscillation knee. Which do you think it is? And based on what?
I think it is at an oscillation knee and we are slowly running out of heat in the oceans each time it layers up and gets rid of some of what we had stored up from the last series of La Nina pattern conditions. Why do I think that? We haven’t had a long, cold, deep La Nina since before ’98. And each successive El Nino SST response after the big one in ’98 has been in an overall downward step. Which leads me to speculate we are slowly running out of ocean heat below the surface. Unless we hurry up and get a good La Nina, it will slowly get cooler and dryer on land because the oceans are running out of gas.
The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) anomaly demonstrates my speculation. The clear sky conditions that allow for deep ocean heating throughout the 700 meter column is enhanced greatly when the MEI is in negative territory. You can speculate how much heat got stored up prior to ’98 and how much heat has likely been evaporated away after that period. You can also see the clear trend that I speculate is the system running out of stored heat.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
I’ve mentioned the 300 months +/- 3 months oscillation of ENSO several times before when replying to ENSO-related posts here on WUWT and using this period, I predicted that the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) would reach a low in the march-april-may (MAM) season of this year. Law and behold it did, since the ONI has now turned positive during the april-may-june (AMJ) season: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
@ur momisugly Pamela…I am looking at this as heat entering the ocean and returning many years later to influence the current conditions. So what we see as current weather is in part influenced by the past. Am I seeing this correctly? I am not sure, but there were so many positive connections in the data that I was looking at that I have persisted with the thought. So now I am waiting for nature,s answer to my thoughts. I do not have the skill set that many here have with the sciences. I dropped out of first year chem/physics from USF, partly in protest to the ‘beware the military/industrial complex’ of the late 60s. So I cannot do the math, even though math was my strongest and easiest subject back in the day. My strength is that I was blessed with a strong mind, and I also received some further blessings as I went along. I have some unusual qualities.
Pamela Gray says:
July 7, 2014 at 9:46 am
I think it is at an oscillation knee and we are slowly running out of heat in the oceans each time it layers up and gets rid of some of what we had stored up from the last series of La Nina pattern conditions.
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I completely agree with your outlook.
Wouldn’t this be an interesting read
http://www.springer.com/physics/theoretical,+mathematical+%26+computational+physics/book/978-0-387-96475-1
rgbatduke says:
July 7, 2014 at 9:32 am
Definitely. Need to wait at least until Christmas along the tropical eastern Pacific coast, although maybe detectable earlier in mid-Pacific.
@ur momisugly Pamela…I wish I had the 99 bucks to spend. The preface sounds intriguing. I had to log off earlier because of an attack. I usually load pages and then disconnect to read. I overstayed the connection and someone reached out to touch me.
Goldminor, your thinking is in tune with what Bob Tisdale has speculated which is stored ocean heat layered by El Nino then echoing out as ripples in the multi-ocean SST temperature data series each time an El Nino sets up a release of heat. His labeled splicing of El Nino events with the temperature series is brilliant theory speculation that implies plausible mechanism. Eye candy that tickles my brain immensely.
Bob takes multi-ocean SST data and places it between El Nino SST data to demonstrate the mechanism. See his well-labeled graph here:
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/ssta-south-atlantic-indian-west-pacific-oceans.gif
And discusses it in this post:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/05/13/answer-to-the-question-posed-at-climate-etc-by-what-mechanism-does-an-el-nino-contribute-to-global-warming/
I think Bob is onto something that is undergirded by Earth’s dynamic systems: A perfect marriage between his recharge/discharge ENSO speculation that El Nino layered heat is echoed and added into other ocean basins, and what is being investigated among geophysical scientists studying atmospheric and oceanic dynamics and theory. These are important combined areas of research that could lead to an atmospheric oceanic climate dynamo theory (as you can see I am playing around with the title till I find one that fits just right) that is resistant to anything but powerful events, such as continental positions, axial tilt and orbital wobble, or catastrophic volcanic activity.
@goldminor “…I wish I had the 99 bucks to spend. The preface sounds intriguing. I had to log off earlier because of an attack. ”
If you get regular “attacks”, then there is something wrong with your PC or virus protection. My guess is that your PC is infected with various virus and trojans. The other possibility is you have no effective firewall working.
Typically, most people encounter virus’s only when they download information from old servers that are not well maintained and therefore have become infected, or from email from people that have infected PCs. For the majority of people, their virus checker will notify them that they encountered a virus and it is blocked. After encountering such a warning, I would notify the owner of the server so that they can fix it. You should never encounter such notifications while browsing well maintained commercial servers or for example while reading WUWT web pages. If you do get such warnings while loading pages from such servers, then probably your PC is already infected or else the firewall is not working. If you have a trojan or virus, this virus or trojan may attempt to run and send information or load data whenever you are connected to the internet. When this happens, you might sometimes get a notification or warning from the firewall or virus checker. If you are getting such notifications regularly, then your PC is probably heavily infected and probably is sending data or doing other things that you don’t know about without any warnings.
The solution – get a new virus checker and make sure it is working properly. There are often virus protections that get high ratings on the web. Many work very poorly. If you are not paying for the virus protection, you probably have a very poor virus checker. The ratings for virus checkers are very biased – PC magazine and others give high marks to virus checkers based on advertising revenue and etc. McAfee or Norton have been over time the best ones. Microsoft now provides virus protection but they don’t have a long track record. So, you won’t know if it is going to work well over time. Once you have a good virus protection, it should provide “status” to tell you if the firewall is on and working right. Make sure your new virus protection has loaded the latest update and manually have it do a full scan the first time it scans.
Goldminor
Your 99 bucks might be better spent on some anti virus software. Cureit by Dr Web is an effective and low price option. Plus go to control panel and programmes and uninstall anything that looks suspicious.
Most ENSO researchers agree that the actual el Nino and La Nina events have a nonlinear dynamic, being driven by the transient positive feedback of the Bjerknes mechanism (trades drive upwelling, upwelling drives trades). However there is disagreement as to whether rhe irregular ENSO os a continuous nonlinear oscillation or only intermittent, becoming suspended for intervals between ENSO events. There are scientists who hold both views. The intermittent view allows the possibility that stochastic or even astrophysical forcings can initiate ENSO events which once over a threshold are then carried on by a nonlinear dynamic.
Pamela… yes, I see something very similar to that. The first thought was along the lines of pulses or packets of solar energy into the oceans that are somehow able to maintain a specific signature. Can the oceans density and other oceanic forcings enable such behaviour? It would have to have a capability along those lines for this type of behaviour to work. Another thought in the background would be “is there another way to rethink what I am observing that involves the Sun itself? After a week of observing the details and thinking about what was in front of me, I noticed what might be an overlapping solar cycle sequence, but it is hard to grasp and explain. Shortly after that I was sidetracked heavily by the end of service for XP on April 8th. That had the effect of severely breaking my thought stream.The attacks were immediate and were successful in shutting my computer down for 2 days before I regained partial stability. It has been a cat and mouse game since then, and every now and then I have to restore from backup to keep going.