Peru says El Niño threat over, waters cooling and fish returning
LIMA (Reuters) – The worst of the potentially disastrous weather pattern El Nino is now behind Peru and cooling sea temperatures are luring back schools of anchovy, the key ingredient in fishmeal, authorities said on Friday.
Temperatures in Peru’s Pacific peaked in June, rising 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) above average levels, but have since retreated and will likely return to normal by August, the state committee that studies El Nino said.
“The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out,” said German Vasquez, the head of the committee.
Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html
h/t to Dennis Wingo
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A look at SST for the region shows cooler to neutral water in the majority, and no sign of the typical strong El Niño pattern:
![anomp.7.3.2014[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/anomp-7-3-20141.gif)
And another:
More at the WUWT ENSO Page
For those who are new to this subject I found the following definition and page very educational.
When you are looking at the El Niño diagram, the trade winds and the “Walker Circulation” meet at Tahiti. During La Niña the “Walker Circulation” goes from E to W while the portion going from W – E is called the trade winds…
SST = Sea Surface Temperature
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/history/ln-2010-12/three-phases-of-ENSO.shtml
El Nino Nanny says:
July 6, 2014 at 12:24 pm
The appearance of warm water off the tropical Pacific coast of the Americas was named by 17th century fishermen “El Niño” for the Christ Child, since it usually arrived around Christmas.
As expected based on my ANN Artificial Neural Network, this ENSO warming phase is fast fading out and is in line with my forecast.
Expect a short La Niña or possible neutral condition at the end of this year.
I expect a medium or weak El Niño at the end of 2015.
The next prolonged and major El Niño is coming in 2018.
I’m currently compiling and putting together a Power Point Presentation in which I show how and why I did found out what it is that is causing ENSO variations. In this presentation I’m going to show from which source the forcing effects are coming from and the mechanisms that are involved in this process.
In this contect the climategate email number 1682 come to my mind.
“What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multidecadal natural fluctuation? They’ll kill us probably…”
@milodonharlani
Yes that’s correct. In common parlance in Spanish, the Christ Child is often called simply, “The Boy God”, “The Little Boy”, or simply just “The Boy” [ El Niño ], and indeed 17th Century South American Fishermen are credited with using the expression first for this phenomenon, for the reasons you say.
click my name for some images
it’s a reminder that we mere mortals do not control these ocean currents
Katherine and JJ: For an El Nino to be included on the Oceanic NINO Index, NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies have to remain at +0.5 deg C or greater for 5 consecutive “seasons”, where the seasons are a running 3-month average of NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies, so it’s not really 5 “months”.
And to answer Katherine’s question, unless the atmospheric side of El Nino decides to get involved, and get involved soon, it’s unlikely the present El Nino conditions will last long enough to be considered an “official” El Nino. One of the posts I’m working on for next week is titled “Is it too early to start thinking about La Nina?”
El Nino Nanny says:
July 6, 2014 at 3:04 pm
Love the images. Maybe to honor the Virgin Mary, warm phases of the ENSO should be shown in light blue instead of red or pink, & also because, well it’s a Boy!
Of course in normal mammalian parthenogenesis, the immaculate conception should have produced a girl identical to her mom, but I guess God but can do whatever He wants.
These are my musings.
I do not put much stock in surface temperatures. The top 700 meters is what I am interested in. I call it the oceanic dynamo climate theory.
I am interested in the discharge recharge dynamo (to steal a phrase from solar mechanics) theory posited by Bob Tisdale. The bottom of the ocean current is a very long term entity and may not play a huge role in temperature swings measured in decades, such as the recent global warming and the even more recent pause. The top 700 meters is where all the action is and this CAN explain temperature trends measured in decades of a 100 years or more.
When the sky is clear (and we are in La Nina cold, dry air in the Western states), the equatorial band is soaking up rays deeply (top 700 meters especially). This recharged layer then plays a dance between getting mixed versus getting layered. When it is mixed it stays in the ocean and we stay cold. When it gets layered warm goes to the top, cold to the bottom of that 700 meter layer, and we warm up as the oceans release that heat to the atmosphere.
As long as we seasaw back and forth we have livable conditions and prosper as a species up here in the Northern latitudes (haven’t studied the Southern Latitudes so my apologies). We might be in that seasaw right now.
However, problems begin to happen when occasionally, more heat (more El Nino’s) is lost than gained. With El Nino’s layering our equatorial ocean band and causing clouds to obscure the equatorial Sun (which causes us to heat up on land) over time we slide jerkingly into global cooling/cold trends that leads to devastation because the oceans have emptied their gas tank.
Eventually though, the skies clear and once again open the door to heat soaking back into the top 700 or so meters. When things calm down and the equatorial ocean layers up, we will warm again.
Here is the scary scenario. If you look at the El Nino index, I get this worrying feeling that we have been losing a lot more heat than we have been replacing. The questions are 1) are we in a seasaw, 2) are we in the knee just before the slide, and 3) how do we know which one it is?
Pamela Gray says:
July 6, 2014 at 3:24 pm
IMO ENSO follows UV, solar wind & magnetic field fluctuations, probably via variations in ozone production, atmospheric pressure differences, creation of CCNs & direct heating of the surface.
Milo, the term we normally use for the mother of Jesus (“Virgin” Mary), meant “young” girl in Aramaic. Not “virgin” girl. And there is a big difference. The Aramaic term is in direct reference to being pre-menstrual. In that culture, girls were often given over to marriage before their first menstrual period. Why? So that they could still be considered “clean”. Girls that began their menstrual period prior to getting married were considered unclean. This explains the Catholic addition to her name, “the immaculate conception” which refers to Mary’s mother, not Mary. It means that Mary was conceived in her mother’s womb before her mother had her first period. Like mother, like daughter.
Pamela Gray says:
July 6, 2014 at 3:34 pm
The New Testament is written in Greek, in which language “virgin” is “parthenos”. Some Aramaic words of course do show up in the NT, but the word for virgin isn’t among them. Maybe you’re thinking about various interpretations of Hebrew (“almah” or girl) & Aramaic words in the Old Testament, such as Isaiah, which bear on whether or not the virgin birth satisfied OT prophecy. Maybe Matthew mistranslated the Hebrew or he didn’t, but that’s what it says in the NT. Same word as in the Parthenon, dedicated to goddess Athena.
You’re right about the IC, but Mary is not said to be her mom’s identical twin, either. However, Mary also allegedly conceived parthenogenically, letting Joseph off the hook, although apparently is it was common in Roman Palestine for betrothed couples to conceive before wedlock in order to make sure that they could do so.
The PDO phase continues to suppress
El Niño events. Has for well over a decade now.
Pamela Gray
I agree generally with your musings to explain the recent warming and the typical 60 year climate cycle . However when it comes to the longer term cool periods when oceans like the Atlantic ocean and AMO stay cold for 50- 60 years like 1790-1850 or 1600 to 1650 , your musings may not account for all the factors of what happens. I believe that during these longer cold cycles, the ocean conveyor belt is somehow altered through other mechanisms.( MOC changes? ). Personally I believe we are headed for one of these longer cool periods from now to possibly up to 2100 and I am focusing my research into this area..
herkimer says:
July 6, 2014 at 4:09 pm
IMO centennial scale cool & warm phases like the LIA & MWP are associated with major shifts in the AMO, for instance, if not in fact caused by them. These Bond “cycles” are the Holocene equivalent to D/O cycles during glacial times, related to fresh water pulses from Heinrich Events & the Dryases. Their frequency is similar, but the amplitude of climatic variation about an order of magnitude greater during glaciations as during interglacials. Many commenters here disagree vehemently.
My question is …… Have they deleted or edited the predictions of a “super” El Nino over at SKS?
( I have not read this entire thread yet.)
If they have not as of yet, someone should go do some screen catches and to shame them with later when the inevitably do edit/ delete them. I am not adept enough with a computer to do it myself.
Worth remembering that our horror Australian droughts (a hundred years apart) Federation and Millennium, were associated with weak El Nino, and that 1998’s super El Nino was quite benign in Oz. Above all, when you consider that the lethal heat, drought and fire of 1939 occurred in a La Nina flanked by neutral years…well, you might think we need another International Geophysical Year where experts are obliged to go outside or at least open a window once a day. Seems the climate won’t come to them, so they may need to go to the climate. (Not Christian Turney, however. He can stay indoors, for everybody’s sake.)
Pamela Gray says:
July 6, 2014 at 7:58 am
… But a continued series of El Nino’s heats the land by losing heat from the oceans. The mechanism is clear. All this knicker twisting over land heat signaling global warming is wrong. The increased land heat was telling us that the oceans were actually cooling! Our heat engine is running out of gas….
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Thanks Pam, interesting comment.
I thinks the Polar circumpolar vortex can pull some heat out too.
Hey, Joe (Bastardi)!
You say that this coming winter is going to be a rather cold one. Do you think that the Great Lakes ice coverage will beat this past winter’s (#2 highest coverage) and the record set in 1979?
-Jack
“Peru says … fish returning”
From where? Did they flee to the hills?
There is absolutely no evidence of any virginity for
Mary. Lifelong virginity is attributed to James, called
the Just, attested by Paul in Acts to be the brother
of Jesus, ” in the flesh.”
James a lifelong Nazirite, had taken vows of poverty
and sexual abstinence. As the leader of the nascent Jerusalem church
and leader of the mass movement based at Qumram, as noted by Josephus, called
the Essenes, but in reality a messianic sect that fought
two bloody wars with Rome. Paul turned against James
and eventually killed him. The real story can only be found from extra biblical sources. The original book of Revelations comes from Qumram and was philo – Semitic but was overwritten and made anti- Semitic.
I agree with you about the heat, good work.
how is it that non -scientist’s can look at predictions made by scientists and computers and models and immediately see that they are not going to come true?
could it be that scientists are blinded by science and non scientists rely on common sense and observation. I’m not a climate scientist but when I saw theMega El Ninio predictions for 2014 I thought…maybe not I dont know why, i have no proof but I just doubted. If I/we are proved correct by the actual events (or non event) what does it say about the science and the scientists? or for that matter the media who believe the scientists?
Where do the Anchovies go ?
There is a lot of money riding on the La Nina/El Nino question.
…….follow the Anchovies is spot on.
from http://www1.american.edu/ted/anchovy.htm
Keith Minto says: “Animals which feed on the anchovy either migrate to where more food is available or die off.”
Dead animals decompose and produce gases that smell and react with old paint on old boats. The boats change color – such a weather induced event becomes The Callao Painter.
Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter) says:
July 6, 2014 at 1:02 am
No chance of a resurgence over the next few months? I have a few people who’s faces I’d like to shove this into.
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If for some uncanny reason my outlook on this continues to match reality, then ENSO will head towards slightly negative, with November being the furthest in that direction. By mid January there should be an uptick leading to a short El Nino around March/April. After that there will be a long La Nina, around 3 years.
See what threatens Japan.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/07/08/0900Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-233.86,28.69,2210
RoHa says:
July 6, 2014 at 7:55 pm
ru says … fish returning”
From where? Did they flee to the hills?
This is about fluctuation of populations year to year, and of early survival, not the where-abouts of a fixed number of immortal fish. The number of anchovy larvae – like any fish – which survive and grow to small fish varies enormously over orders of magnitude. It all depends on how many food items are to be found in the accessible vicinity of an anchovy larva drifting around in the east Pacific, with an ability to swim just a few cm in water which to an organism of that size feels like a viscous syrup. Spawning anchovies release millions of fertilized eggs but the critical factor is early survival. Upwelling brings nutrients to the surface waters meaning much more phytoplankton food items for baby anchovies. Thus upwelling causes enhanced early survival of anchovies and eventually a big year class of anchovies.