Peru says El Niño threat over, waters cooling and fish returning
LIMA (Reuters) – The worst of the potentially disastrous weather pattern El Nino is now behind Peru and cooling sea temperatures are luring back schools of anchovy, the key ingredient in fishmeal, authorities said on Friday.
Temperatures in Peru’s Pacific peaked in June, rising 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) above average levels, but have since retreated and will likely return to normal by August, the state committee that studies El Nino said.
“The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out,” said German Vasquez, the head of the committee.
Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html
h/t to Dennis Wingo
================================================================
A look at SST for the region shows cooler to neutral water in the majority, and no sign of the typical strong El Niño pattern:
![anomp.7.3.2014[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/anomp-7-3-20141.gif)
And another:
More at the WUWT ENSO Page
How disappointing. That could mean less precipitation for southwest USA including Texas.
JOE BASTARDI
“Get ready for a nasty winter, btw.” Joe, what do you mean nasty ? Last year was nasty, but I don’t see that type of a winter this coming winter .The 2010 winter was nasty as we had the 2009/2010 El Nino, but this El Nino will be weak in my opinion. So I think this coming winter may not be that nasty( with regional exceptions) Can you expand on what you mean ?
PAMELA GRAY
You could be right, but I am only referring to strong climate altering El Ninos like 86/87 and 97/98. Also the North Atlantic is cooling without any recent EL Ninos, so deep ocean currents also play a role especially in the Atlantic
Joseph Bastardi says:
July 6, 2014 at 4:34 am
“The pattern is much like the 1950s and the 1957-1958 enso event is another to look at.”
I, too, predicted a busted El Nino from a look at the cold water thinning out the hot in the Eastern Pacific plus a large intrusion of cold from the southern ocean rising up the west coast of Chile and Peru when Tisdale gave his last review of the approaching El Nino. BTW, I’m thrilled that Joe also makes use of the 60 yr cycle that has apparently fallen out of favor with the rise of the the anti-cycle analysts – Willis, etc. I’ve mentioned the ‘cycle’ in connection with Texas drought, western wild fires, hurricanes, tornadoes, cold spring/summer in the Pacific NW and floods over the last couple of years on threads here.
Five months.
ATheoK
“…cool breezy low humidity Virginia summer days are very unusual, and chilly.”
I am a Virginia native and this is normal post-hurricane weather. Don’t worry, summer will be back in full effect this coming week.
Bill Illis on July 6, 2014 at 6:09 am
What’s really happened is that all the cold water left-over in the eastern Pacific from the recent La Ninas (the cold PDO), (J. Bastardi’s description) (however it is described) has won the war against the warm water moving in from the equatorial under-current.
The warm water has now been mostly neutralized.
Another way of saying this is thay the “ground state” of the Pacific was not conducive of an el Nino. According to some authors the Pacific ground state switches with alternate phases of the PDO.
I remember when the present now defunct Kelvin wave first appeared, the equatorial temperature profile showed extensive cool anomaly which almost overnight seemed to switch to warm. My first thought was to wonder what had happened to all that cold water. You explanation would indicate that it had not in fact gone away but sapped the strength from the Kelvin wave so that the incipient el Nino has ultimately now failed to develop.
All this stored energy in the deep, supposedly fueling El Nino. What happened to it?
“The Gore Effect” is really quite broad. Algore doesn’t have to be present.
Gaia just won’t give the Warmistas the catastrophe they so desperately desire.
Our Earth strives for the truth.
Waiting for el Ninot
Scene 8
ESTRAGON
Hey Vlad – that film we watched last night, Frankenstein, its given me an idea.
VLADIMIR
You mean that one with Keith Branagh and Helena Bonham Carter?
ESTRAGON
Yes – this Frankenstein chap was putting dead body parts into amniotic fluid and giving them an electric shock and hey presto – they came back to life!
VLADIMIR
So all the congealed blood and bacterial and fungal decay disappeared in a moment and the organs functioned normally. ..
ESTRAGON
Exactly – so that a body stitched together from parts of several corpses would come to life – with big stiches all over its head for no reason.
Do you see where I’m going with this?
VLADIMIR
Surely you are not thinking about our late good friend El Ninot?
ESTRAGON
You’re on the ball today – yes, I have everything prepared. You up for it?
VLADIMIR
You bet – so, shovels at midnight?
Screwed up the bold again – I’ll have to go and practice.
This is something that people just don’t understand, even though a mere glance at e.g. HADCRUT4 or figure 9.2a in AR5 make it absolutely clear. All of the warming — that is all of the warming — of the last 75 years occurred in a single stretch of roughly 15 years, from 1983 to 1998. The warming over that stretch was significant, no doubt, but it was entirely driven by two extraordinary ENSO events, primarily the 1997/1998 “super” El Nino. Even so, the warming of the 1930s almost precisely matched it, to the point where if one cuts the 20th century temperature record into two pieces and display them side by side, it is not at all easy to tell which one is warming with the help of CO_2 and which is warming without it.
I repeat — of the last 75 years of the temperature record, 60 of them have been neutral to slightly cooling, 15 of them warming.
One then has a choice. One can either cherrypick the single 15 year stretch of warming and claim that this is somehow the correct behavior and everything else is anomaly, or one can not cherrypick at all and use the warming trend from (say) 1850 to the present of perhaps 0.05 to 0.06 C/decade as the trend of all of the data.
Either way, the climate has been neutral now for longer than the sole warming burst of the last 75 years lasted.
rgb
Zorba, You act as if you know it all. You’re so sure of yourself.
Perhaps you should stick around and abZorba some information here at WUWT.
I recommend you read WUWT privately so your “friends” don’t call you a heretic.
PAMELA GRAY
‘Herkimer, I believe it is the string of El Nino’s that is causing the oceans to cool. ‘ I think this is the vernier mode of ocean surface cooling and unless the El Ninos or La Ninas are strong, their impact is short lived .
Pamela you will note( as per one of Bob TISDALES graphs ) that Atlantic and Pacific SST’s were actually warming 1976- 2000 when we had two strong climate altering El Ninos per decade. The ocean heat content went up as well. I personally support the theories Prof . Emeritus William Gray and think that real clue is in the deep ocean currents and MOC. They are going to cause more upwelling of colder water especially in the Atlantic . The pattern of 1880-1910 and again 1910 t0 1945 is a good example. when despite the pattern of El ninos , the ocean SST pattern dropped and then rose with a pattern of its own( due to changing currents)
http://bobtisdale.files.wordpress.com/2013/07/figure-72.png
El sol frío mata al niño débil, como en las décadas de los años 50 y 60.
I suspect Obama’s advisors reassured him that he’d be able, by the fall, to point to a record-breaking GASTA fueled by this El Niño as vindication of his alarmism.
herkimer on July 6, 2014 at 10:44 am
I will have to read up on William Gray’s theories, I also feel that the deep ocean circulation has to hold the key to climate shifts on multidecadal to millennial time scales.
Ed Zuiderwijk says:
July 6, 2014 at 10:16 am
All this stored energy in the deep, supposedly fueling El Nino. What happened to it?
Heidi de Heet is still there. Keeping Heidi de Klein company, no doubt.
A lot of people don’t know this, but ‘el nino’ is spanish for ‘the nino’.
it’s what I stated on a previous WUWT Blog page ….
El Nino Nanny says:
June 4, 2014 at 9:53 am
Looks more like a “Modoki” el nino if you ask me.
Click my name to see the thread ^^^^
@ur momisugly kevin says:
July 6, 2014 at 12:20 pm
>>>>>
Kevin, actually it means “The Boy”
& La Nina is “The Girl”
“Modoki” is a classical Japanese word,
which means “a similar but different thing”.
do you all realize that the climate IS changing?
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/04/29/the-climate-is-changing/
“All this stored energy in the deep, supposedly fueling El Nino. What happened to it?”
We all hope like hell that sometime after about 2030 we will see it (this stored energy) released from the oceans over the following 30 or so years as a predominance of el Nino over la Nina. With any luck the trend since about 1850 will continue slowly upwards, unless there is a cyclical downturn indicating that the slow warming since the LIA is over for a while.
What this will all mean is that the climate is behaving as it always does , as far as we know.
@HenryP ^^^^
+1 to your linked website explanation.
Seems like You actually did some research into these matters,
and I wish that our Politicians had done the same, instead of
listening to “green” lobbyists and deceivers like Al Gore Jr.
If it gets mixed into and absorbed by deeper, more voluminous, and cooler layers of the ocean, it–or some of it–will effectively become “sequestered”–Right?