Peru says El Niño threat over, waters cooling and fish returning
LIMA (Reuters) – The worst of the potentially disastrous weather pattern El Nino is now behind Peru and cooling sea temperatures are luring back schools of anchovy, the key ingredient in fishmeal, authorities said on Friday.
Temperatures in Peru’s Pacific peaked in June, rising 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) above average levels, but have since retreated and will likely return to normal by August, the state committee that studies El Nino said.
“The possibility of us seeing an extraordinary Nino is ruled out,” said German Vasquez, the head of the committee.
Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/peru-says-el-nino-threat-over-waters-cooling-232314417.html
h/t to Dennis Wingo
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A look at SST for the region shows cooler to neutral water in the majority, and no sign of the typical strong El Niño pattern:
![anomp.7.3.2014[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/07/anomp-7-3-20141.gif)
And another:
More at the WUWT ENSO Page
Yes its looking like this El Nino is going to be a damp squib.
So l expect that the AGW agenda is likely to switch to Arctic sea ice extent. Which has taken a sharp dive over recent days, and may get close to or beat its recorded low of 2012.
Like HenryP I don’t want to say it either but I also told you so:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/04/30/the-201415-el-nino-part-6-whats-all-the-hubbub-about/#comment-1625798
This Gore effect is very powerful! Al flys in to Australia for a brief visit, the temperature plunges with freezing weather and excellent snowfalls in the Alpine Regions, and now the oceans cool, simply amazing!!!!
The ice looks fine to me. What graphs are you looking at?
phlogiston says:
“Always check the anchovies…”
Great line!
Been ranting against this since Spring , taking Trenberth etal apart showing how the physical drivers were not present and its much more in line with a cold pdo SPIKE with the MEI cold preceding. There will be an el nino likely to be a blend of the 02/09 events recently. The pattern is much like the 1950s and the 1957-1958 enso event is another to look at. Joe D and I have this getting to about a 1.5 or 1.6 in enso 3.4, but 1.2 is much cooler, not the center of it during winter. The Peruvians, IMO have caught on as their destructive enso events are when 1.2 is very warm as it is in warm PDO set ups.
Get ready for a nasty winter, btw
I find it amusing. For all our technology, NOAA NDBC, and all the satellites and other various ways we measure changes in ocean temperatures, currents, wind, etc., and all those computer models. It seems the defining factor in determining the existence of an El Nino is the catch of anchovy?
It’s been quite humid here in Southern California. I was hoping we’d get enough of an El Niño for some actual rain. 🙁
If the science the climate obsessed refers to was sound, they would not be so dependent on El Nino/ La Nina effects to support their claims. Consider how scientists since at least the 1980’s and possibly before have mis-reported the Pacific ocean oscillations. Their promotion of hype and fear raises the question as to how objectively they view science in general.
Mr Joe Bastardi: Any ideas on the effects of increased Antarctic extent on SH winters (ie South America, South Africa and Australia)? (if any)
As my granny used to say “never rely on El Nino to prove a hypothesis.” Well she didn’t actually say that. She said “never send a boy to mill”. But El Nino is just that boy in the climate world, unable to warm the planet enough to put the warmist models back in play.
Translation: Hopefully we can get away with this cherry-picked “warming hiatus” a couple more years yet.
Then we move onto the next piece of BS anti-science propaganda.
Steve from Rockwood says:
El Nino is just that boy in the climate world, unable to warm the planet enough to put the warmist models back in play.
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El Niño can’t provide enough warming to put the models ‘back into play’ because it is a natural phenomenon, and, to attribute El Niño warming as a validation of CO2 warming is false science. Not that the AGW proponents wouldn’t make the claim.
I predict that, if the El Niño fades and does not occur, sites like ‘Real Climate’ will quickly make the claim that CO2 ‘killed’ the El Niño and that this is proof positive that they are right, CO2 is ‘disrupting’ the cllimate.
Across the whole USA?
What’s really happened is that all the cold water left-over in the eastern Pacific from the recent La Ninas (the cold PDO), (J. Bastardi’s description) (however it is described) has won the war against the warm water moving in from the equatorial under-current.
The warm water has now been mostly neutralized.
Nino 3.4 will still go up over the next month as there is warm water at the surface which will move to the west with the Trades and the prevailing current but it won’t get to over 1.0C and it will dissipate rather quickly.
300 metre ocean temperature anomaly. Watch equatorial Pacific.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pent_gif/xy/movie.h300.gif
The fuel driving the El Nino, has been used up.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/heat-last-year.gif
California should still get some increased precipitation from the event starting August/September but no big flooding rains.
timothybeatty says:
July 6, 2014 at 3:00 am
> All it means is that the Atlantic Hurricane season will be the rallying cry instead of flooding in California.
I was going to quote the June hurricane season forecast from Klotzbach and Gray at Colorado State, but I forgot they have a July 1 forecast, see http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2014/july2014/july2014.pdf . It starts out with:
Overall, they’re expecting about 70% of an average season.
In the previous forecast they had increased the prediction from 60% due to the weakness of the upcoming El Niño.
Other excerpts:
Zorba~ We get cherry-picked anti-science BS from the MSM every day that they report the newest AGW scare. Where have You been?
Increasing global cloudiness since around 2000 is gradually reducing the proportion of solar energy that enters the oceans to drive the climate system.
El Nino is gradually becoming less powerful relative to La Nina.
Thank you for the ENSO update.
When NOAA danced around singing about a super el Nino causing a hotter year, it was a good bet that they just lanced the ENSO this year. Warmists are still drooling about getting more hot air.
Joe Bastardi: Thank you for the winter warning, I think.
Given your spot on Arthur prediction I should start squirreling wood for the winter, now. Today.
Especially after the cold front that swept through Virginia the last few days; cool breezy low humidity Virginia summer days are very unusual, and chilly.
Zorba:
Cherry picked hiatus?
Are you referring to the last 17 years as something that is cherry picked? A hiatus that seems to have fully ended the 1990s warming trend.
Not forgetting that the very cherry picked 1990s warming trend just prior to the last seventeen years is almost anomalous, unless one likens it to the warming trend in the 1930s.
The real laugh is where CO2’s trend is continuous growth with no definitive link to flatlined temperatures.
Welcome once again to the WUWT sportscenter where we’re covering the epic match between The Merchants of Doubt vs. The Merchants of Fear.
Before we go live at ringside lets recap what’s happened so far between this David vs. Goliath match-up.
In round 1 the heavy weight Merchants of Fear dominated the light weight Merchants of Doubt culminating the round with a vicious right hook (hockeystick) that sent the Merchants of Doubt reeling.
In round 2 the Merchants of Doubt were kept on the defensive and just barely managed to avoid complete annihilation by countering the right hook with some fancy footwork (Wegman, M&M).
In round 3 The Merchants of Fear took one devastating blow (Climategate) after another (WUWT, CA, JoNova, etc.).
In round 4 The Merchants of Fear fought back with a dizzying attack from all sides (RealClimate, SkS, DeSmog, intimidation, extortion, fraud, fabrication, etc.)
In round 5 The Merchants of Doubt landed yet another devastating blow (Hiatus), a lessor opponent would have been out for the count but the colossal Merchants of Fear seemed barely fazed.
We now join our live correspondent ringside well into round 6:
In round 6 the Merchants of Fear came out strong with a series of jabs (super El Nino is coming!) but seems to be tiring out now. Have the Merchants of Fear fell for the ole rope-a-dope? The question on everyone’s mind here is whether the Merchants of Doubt will be able to take advantage of the situation and deal a debilitating blow to The Merchants of Fear. The crowd is positively electric with anticipation. The Merchants of Doubt seem to be positioning for attack and The Merchants of Fear seem to have stepped into a trap but it’s still a viper vs. a mountain, anything could happen.
Perhaps the albedo from record Antarctic sea ice extent is having an affect on temps in the Southern Ocean?
There are fewer strong or climate altering EL Ninos during global cooling cycles , one per decade . There will unlikely be another strong El Nino until the end of this decade. As the globe heads toward 2100 and the global temperatures continue to cool further due to ocean cooling( mostly North Atlantic at the moment). there will generally be fewer strong El Ninos.
Herkimer, I believe it is the string of El Nino’s that is causing the oceans to cool. We are losing ocean heat and not gaining it back. If we experience a strong series of La Nina’s, when oceans are recharged with heat, we may be okay. But a continued series of El Nino’s heats the land by losing heat from the oceans. The mechanism is clear. All this knicker twisting over land heat signaling global warming is wrong. The increased land heat was telling us that the oceans were actually cooling! Our heat engine is running out of gas.
Joseph Bastardi says:
July 6, 2014 at 4:34 am
“Get ready for a nasty winter, btw”
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And that would be different, how ? 🙂
I live in the Chicago suburbs.