As we mentioned yesterday, Tropical Storm Arthur is likely to become hurricane Arthur and threaten the Outer Banks of North Carolina on the Fourth of July, one of the busiest holidays there. A potential nightmare scenario.
NASA’s Earth Data page is great resource to get hi resolution satellite imagery from. This one shows how Arthur, off the coast of South Florida is becoming more organized.
16:30 UTC Tropical Storm Arthur (01L) off Florida
Source: http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/gallery.cgi
Click image for hi-res version.
Latest from NHC:
WTNT31 KNHC 011745 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 200 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014 ...TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 79.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NNW OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS LOCATED BY NOAA DOPPLER RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST. ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE AND MOVE EAST OF THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PASS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SETTLEMENT POINT OBSERVATION SITE ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND REPORTED A GUST OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM... MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
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So make this a lesson.
What is telling us in the great white fuzz that it is “getting organized”, and what does that phrase mean? Please consider me a weather ignoramus, with a knowledge level enough to read a weather rock.
“more organized =
-more circular in appearance
-distinctive center
-distinctive bands with more uniform radiation patterns
among others.
If this storm becomes a hurricane, that will be clear unambiguous proof of global warming
Have we ever had a hurricane threaten the U.S. in July? Could this be the earliest cane ever to hit the U.S.
motherlandhomelandmainland?This was an interesting perspective.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2014_01L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html
Robert Wykoff says: …
—
So what could possibly happen that alarmists would NOT claim is proof of climate change? Can you name anything?
This one shows how Arthur, off the coast of South Florida is becoming more organized.
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not just yet…still the same since dawn….the LLC is still looking for a home
Robert Wykoff says:
July 1, 2014 at 12:37 pm
If this storm becomes a hurricane, that will be clear unambiguous proof of global warming
Mark Stoval (@MarkStoval) says:
July 1, 2014 at 12:58 pm
If this storm becomes a hurricane, that will be clear unambiguous proof of global warming
Have we ever had a hurricane threaten the U.S. in July? Could this be the earliest cane ever to hit the U.S. motherland homeland mainland?
———————————————————————————————————————————-
Guys? I hope you are being sarcastic. If IIRC the earliest hurricane ever (in a year) was in January in 1938. AGW was really ripping back then. (That was sarcasm in case you could not tell.
“Guys? I hope you are being sarcastic.”
Well I guess I could have put in a tag to show I was being sarcastic, but I thought the “U.S.
motherlandhomelandmainland” part was a dead giveaway. No?This is absolute proof the planet is cooling.
There. It is in print.
Neil says:
July 1, 2014 at 12:26 pm
I have 2 weather rocks. One is well organized granite and the other is unorganized obsidian. At the moment they both claim “sunny.”
As for the “great white fuzz” – an animation would show that there is movement and that is what those with experience “see” in the photo provide by the host (Thanks, A.).
The concept is called cyclogenesis and the Wikipedia page says this “is an umbrella term for several different processes, all of which result in the development of …”
There, in the 3rd line, the word “cyclone” is a link. Go there for more background.
More thrilling climate terror! My word don’t we live in exciting times.
Null earth show it better
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-78.73,29.06,1106
Neil says:
July 1, 2014 at 12:26 pm
“What is telling us in the great white fuzz that it is “getting organized”, and what does that phrase mean? ”
———————————————————————————————————————
Fairly simply, the great white fuzz at the southern end of the storm looks like outflow beginning. Tropical storms need upper level outflow to intensify, meaning that the rising air in the center of the forming storm has to be able to be evacuated in order for more air to enter the system at the bottom, which then rises into the outflow, which enables more air to enter the bottom and so on.
As this process continues, other conditions being favorable, the speed of entry winds increases around the center strengthening the storm. Also look for bands of thunderstorms to begin to wrap around the center, a clear sign of strengthening. The big issue with tropical systems is their ability, when conditions are right, to intensify rapidly so while 40 mph winds seem innocent enough you must keep close watch because they can become 80+ mph winds fairly quickly.
You might also note the small, thin line of clouds along the west coast of Florida. That is a line of thunderstorms formed by the sea breeze. They bring welcome cooling to the immediate area underneath and provide needed heavy rains for a short period of time. My plants love it.
Louis says on July 1, 2014 at 1:07 pm:
Robert Wykoff says: …
—
So what could possibly happen that alarmists would NOT claim is proof of climate change? Can you name anything?
= = = = = = =
Climate Change – that’s what
Southeast Composite Radar Loop
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_lite_loop.php
Fairly simply, the great white fuzz at the southern end of the storm looks like outflow beginning
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Tom, that’s just coming off the land….the LLC still hasn’t found a home
Animate your radar off Melbourne
Latitude says:
July 1, 2014 at 2:37 pm
“Tom, that’s just coming off the land….the LLC still hasn’t found a home
Animate your radar off Melbourne”
———————————————————————————————————————-
Yes, reading the latest discussion there is wind shear from the northwest, although that is supposed to weaken very soon.
Jimbo, would you please happen to have a list of hurricane related predictions?
“the earliest hurricane ever (in a year) was in January in 1938. AGW was really ripping back then.”
OMG it’s worse than we thought. AGW can even go back in time, and cause hurricanes in the past. Truly, nothing is safe now.
I could swear Hurricane Agnes hit in June 1972, caused record flooding in Western New York.
I bet Al Gore is on his knees praying for this baby to grow up and cause some damage.
Cyclogenesis is also seen in storms heading westward across the Pacific off the coast of Mexico, but few seem to form typhoons. Is the surface water at that latitude of the Pacific cooler than the same in the Atlantic?
Yes, reading the latest discussion there is wind shear from the northwest, although that is supposed to weaken very soon
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keep your eye on the Melbourne radar….that blob you saw earlier is about to find a home
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=MLB
So what could possibly happen that alarmists would NOT claim is proof of climate change? Can you name anything?
I understand there’s another Bigfoot video circulating on the Internet …