Guest essay by David Archibald
A couple of years ago the question was asked “When will it start cooling?” Of course solar denialists misconstrued this innocent enquiry. There is no doubt – we all know that lower solar irradiance will result in lower temperatures on this planet. It is a question of when. Solar activity is much lower than it was at a similar stage of the last solar cycle but Earthly temperatures have remained stubbornly flat. Nobody is happy with this situation. All 50 of the IPCC climate models have now been invalidated and my own model is looking iffy.
Friss-Christenson and Lassen theory, as per Solheim et al’s prediction, has the planet having a temperature decrease of 0.9°C on average over Solar Cycle 24 relative to Solar Cycle 23. The more years that pass without the temperature falling, the greater the fall required over the remaining years of the cycle for this prediction to be validated.
The question may very well have been answered. David Evans has developed a climate model based on a number of inputs including total solar irradiance (TSI), carbon dioxide, nuclear testing and other factors. His notch-filter model is optimised on an eleven year lag between Earthly temperature and climate. The hindcast match is as good as you could expect from a climate model given the vagaries of ENSO, lunar effects and the rest of it, which gives us a lot of confidence in what it is predicting. What it is predicting is that temperature should be falling from just about now given that TSI fell from 2003. From the latest of a series of posts on Jo Nova’s blog:
The model has temperature falling out of bed to about 2020 and then going sideways in response to the peak in Solar Cycle 24. What happens after that? David Evans will release his model of 20 megs in Excel in the near future. I have been using a beta version. The only forecast of Solar Cycle 25 activity is Livingstone and Penn’s estimate of a peak amplitude of seven in sunspot number. The last time that sort of activity level happened was in the Maunder Minimum. So if we plug in TSI levels from the Maunder Minimum, as per the Lean reconstuction, this is what we get:
This graph shows the CET record in blue with the hindcast of the notch-filter model using modern TSI data in red with a projection to 2040. The projected temperature decline of about 2.0°C is within the historic range of the CET record. Climate variability will see spikes up and down from that level. The spikes down will be killers. The biggest spike you see on that record, in 1740, killed 20% of the population of Ireland, 100 years before the more famous potato famine.
I consider that David Evans’ notch-filter model is a big advance in climate science. Validation is coming very soon. Then stock up on tinned lard with 9,020 calories per kg. A pallet load could be a life-saver.
David Archibald, a Visiting Fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C., is the author of Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short (Regnery, 2014).
UPDATE:
For fairness and to promote a fuller understating, here are some replies from Joanne Nova
Now for the proper link:
http://joannenova.com.au/2014/07/the-solar-model-finds-a-big-fall-in-tsi-data-that-few-seem-to-know-about/
I’ve already seen enough spurious shapes and trends pop up when smoothing to not trust basing a hypothesis off something that only shows up with smoothing.
Nope, let’s discuss Lord Monckton’s missed chance. No need to get side tracked. I said I’d look into it and I will. Give me some links to start me off but until I have done that I won’t discuss that matter.
kadaka (KD Knoebel) says:
July 1, 2014 at 2:00 pm
…………..
Ended in a wrong blog, Robert the Bruce & Eric Bloodaxe
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vukcevic says:July 1, 2014 at 2:58 pm
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don’t wish to be sued for calling anyone ‘highly intelligent’.
Margaret Hardman:
At July 1, 2014 at 2:53 pm you say
I agree that there is “No need to get side tracked”. Indeed, only egregious trolls deliberately attempt to sidetrack threads.
The subject of this thread is the climate model of David Evans. So, I assume you will desist from promoting what you call “Lord Monckton’s missed chance” and any other side track.
Richard
Let’s discuss Michael Mann’s chart actions, shall we?
henry
no, let’s discuss the science shall we?
Are we all agreed now that TSI is basically useless and that declining solar polar field strength
http://ice-period.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/sun2013.png
is a much better proxy for declining earthly temperatures?
So, has anyone here now figured out yet where that solar field strength is going to go in time to come?
Richard, I think David Evans’s idea has been thoroughly trashed. That Lord Monckton seems to think that waving his arms and shouting wins anything but bemused looks says it all really.
IEHO there actually is something serious here. The SORCE measurements do not really fit well with any of the models (and they mostly don’t agree with each other). Since one needs the models to go back before 1980, the cleft stick is either there is something wrong with the satellite instrument, or none of the models are really good enough.
Oh yeah, it is easy enough to sense
I heartily DISAGREE with sweeping this issue aside.
Skeptics rightly question the speculation that anthropogenic CO2 has driven the 20th and 21st century warming trend based on the anomaly data, but as a consequence we leave a void. All voids want to be filled and this one is no exception. Trouble is, all manner of speculation will try to fill that void. Therefore we, as a skeptical community, MUST be even MORE skeptical of OUR speculations than those posited by the AGW crowd. Why? We run the risk of bias among ourselves than we do looking across to the other side.
To that end, we must seek out the best actual data available and seriously vet the presentations of those here that speculate on other-than-CO2 drivers. We cannot run the risk of taking each other for their word and must vet what we propose against actual data. Leif is a source and expert of actual Solar data. Bob Tisdale is an excellent resource in terms of oceanic data. Roy Spencer provides close to the ground and up in the air information on global temperatures. Anth*** provides expert opinions on the reliability and validity of ground sensors. It is very interesting that at least the first two, Leif and Bob, have given notice that they make NO predictions or scenarios and have provided no models of future global temperatures. I haven’t seen a prediction from either Anth*** or Roy so they may also be reluctant to provide such predictions. It is wise to ponder this reluctance.
So, both David A. and David E., along with a host of others must present their speculations and graphs to a hopefully well trained down and dirty skeptical crowd who will wisely and diligently check everything that is proposed, IE will do the CORRECT job of peer review that we so often pan as “pal review” on the other side.
That this is a spirited conversation that is very much a blood sport is the way IT SHOULD BE! I’ve been there and done that in another area of research. I’ve experienced the political side (which I hated and which made me leave research) and the side that matters (vetted reproducibility). The fact that my work was vetted, torn apart, and eventually put back together and is now part of the growing “here is what we know” pool of understanding about my area of research is most satisfying and not the least bit upsetting from beginning to end. The political pal review side (in my case, who should publish first, etc) is what we want to avoid at ALL costs! And especially AMONG OURSELVES! We should NEVER give ourselves a pass. EVER!
Sorry about the shouting, but ya’ll got me feathers ruffled with this notion of playing nice with each other.
Leif has a download page here.
http://www.leif.org/research/download-data.htm
The first link provides a excel file of TSI reconstructions which provides for an identical TSI reconstruction to that linked by Joanne Nova. Leif’s own data is the same.
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/evans/graphs/prediction/total-solar-irradiance.gif
2003 was the middle of down-turn from the last solar cycle. It was already 0.5 W/m2 lower than peak of the last solar cycle in 2000 and 2001.
So Leif’s chart of TSI since 2003 starts in the middle of a downturn and ends at the top of the solar cycle. The end is supposed to be 0.5 W/m2 higher, not the same as middle of the last downturn (something approximating the average – we are supposed to be at the peak, not the middle) .
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-since-2003.png
I’m new around here, so I won’t offer advice to people who know more than I do, but it seems foolish to expend so much vitriol over a few days’ delay in publishing data and codes. Patience is a virtue.
Bill Illis says:
July 1, 2014 at 3:33 pm
2003 was the middle of down-turn from the last solar cycle. It was already 0.5 W/m2 lower than peak of the last solar cycle in 2000 and 2001.
TSI simply follows the sunspot number and since this cycle is much lower than the previous cycle, TSI at maximum will be correspondingly lower. That is not the issue, but the false claim that TSI now is lower than in 2003-2005 is. Stay with the ball, Bill.
I’m just an interested layman, so I’m not going to offer science advice, but it seems disproportional to generate so much vitriol over the matter of a few days’ delay in publishing data and codes. Patience is a virtue after all, and most of you will want to get along after this discussion is concluded.
For heaven’s sake. Being from a very isolated Oregon county that is supremely very pioneering gawd-damn-independent in tone, I could give a rat’s ass about royalty titles or Lord titles and who has one and who doesn’t. If the good Lord says he inherited a title, fine. That has nothing to do with the good Lord’s threats because of Leif calling Evans out on a chart, Hell, I call David Archibald out on supporting the entire Evan’s speculation! Why? Because I think David engaged in pal review and therefore did not do his due diligence in presenting the post on Evan’s proposal.
Word to the wise: Don’t sue a redheaded Irish woman. The odds are decidely against you.
Pamela Gray says:
Skeptics rightly question the speculation that anthropogenic CO2 has driven the 20th and 21st century warming trend based on the anomaly data, but as a consequence we leave a void.
I am only interested in what’s happening. If evidence appears that confirms AGW, I want to know.
But so far, there isn’t any testable, measurable scientific evidence that quantifies the fraction of a degree of global warming due to human CO2 emissions — and I have been asking for that evidence for several years now.
Speaking for myself, I am a skeptic. If evidence is produced, that’s OK with me. So far though… there is none at all. That may change. Or not. Either way advances knowledge.
From HenryP on July 1, 2014 at 3:18 pm:
Is it much better to use cow plops than chicken entrails to predict the weather? Of course it is! Then you can still have eggs with your morning glass of milk.
Steve Keohane says:
July 1, 2014 at 4:28 am
Plants can’t use UV as an energy source for photosynthesis, but some pigments (cryptochromes & other receptors) can detect it.
For photosynthesis plants use wavelengths that chlorophyll molecules can absorb, ie blue (410-460 nm) & red (630-670 nm) light. Maximum absorption for chlorophyll-a is at 430 & 662 nm, while for -b it occurs at 453 & 642 nm. As noted above, plants appear green because green light is not absorbed by any pigment, neither by chlorophylls nor by phytochrome, carrotenoids, xanthophylls or others.
In coccolithophores, UV actually hampers photosynthesis.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0098847209001580
Coccolithophores are exposed to solar UV radiation (UVR, 280–400 nm) in their natural habitats. However, little has been documented on their physiological responses to UVR. We investigated the UV impacts on the photosynthesis, calcification, photochemical efficiency and growth of Emiliania huxleyi while culturing the cells under solar radiation. Presence of UVR significantly decreased the rates of photosynthesis and calcification. Shorter wavelengths of UV-B led to more damages to photosynthetic apparatus than to calcifying machinery, while longer wavelengths of UV-A resulted more harms to the calcification. As the cells were grown during long-term exposures to solar radiation, the ratios of repair to UV-related damage increased, indicating their acclimation to UV. The specific growth rate of the acclimated cells was inhibited by natural levels of UVR by about 25%, and the cells became bigger with more coccoliths, reflecting a slower cell division and enhanced calcification per cell, a trade off to counteract the UV-induced harms. The absorptivity of UV-absorbing compounds (peaked at 280 nm) increased tremendously in response to the exposure of UVR. UV-induced stress led to a protective strategy of E. huxleyi, sacrificing the growth by allocating energy for accumulation of these compounds and calcification.
Agnostic says:
July 1, 2014 at 8:21 am
So in your view it is “reasonable” for Lord Monckton to threaten legal action over a scientific question, in a venue where the truth is not a defense against libel? And it’s “reasonable” for Lord Monckton to threaten to try to have Leif fired or demoted?
OK, we can see that you are not “Agnostic” at all … so I’ll call you “TrueBeliever” instead.
Regarding Dr. Evans actions of continuing to conceal the data, the code, the out-of-sample test, and the rest of the secret items, back at post II I asked and even begged David Evans to release the whole thing.
He told me he was under no obligation to release the data until he felt like it, and he didn’t feel like it. This condition has continued for another 8 long posts, along with endless discussion both there, here, and around the web, and despite a number of people other than myself asking him to reveal the data.
As a result, my statement that “he refuses to reveal the data” was true then, and it is still true now.
Yes, it may not be true in the future, but that’s why we have tenses in English, so we can tell the difference between “Dr. Evans refuses …” (present) and “Dr. Evans will continue to refuse …” (future). You should read up on this whole “tenses” deal, it will keep you from making foolish mistakes in future.
So I fear your objection is simply false, and my statement is demonstrably true. Dr. Evans has refused, and continues to refuse, to reveal his data, his code, his averaging method, his out-of-sample tests, the equations underlying his model, and just about everything.
Will he reveal it in the future? Who cares? The damage has already been done. He has been using his position of power, what Lord Monckton described in his usual eloquently manner as being “sure in the knowledge that no one will be able to falsify what he refuses to make available”, for ten long posts now, using that unfair advantage in each and every one of his posts to “defeat” all those like myself who might question his work … imaginary “victories” which seem to have impressed the credulati. Along the way, he’s gathered a host of less-than-inquisitive folks like yourself, who are defending his model despite never having seen one single test of his method, tests which Jo says have already been done, but which despite repeated requests have never been revealed.
So yes, ‘TrueBeliever”, Dr. Evans does refuse, and has refused numerous times, to reveal his manifold secrets.
Which is what I said.
w.
A note: A search on the English libel law shows that new provisions came into effect in January of this year. As a result, I was slightly out of date, and Lord Monckton is correct about the current British libel law. It does allow for truth as a defense.
However, it also introduces the following provision, per the UK Parliament web site:
http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2012-13/defamation.html
Is there one person here who thinks that David Evans has “suffered serious harm” from Leif comment on a blog post?
In addition, there are still Australian states where truth is NOT a defense against libel … and regarding that, Lord Monckton states:
So once again, Lord Monckton is threatening a libel suit in a jurisdiction where truth is not a defense …
Now, if there is one person reading this who thinks that Lord Monckton’s repeated threat of legal action against Dr. Svalgaard in a scientific dispute, and bringing action in a place where truth is no defense is not a vile, sleazy, underhanded action, now is the time for you to speak up. Lord Monckton needs your help.
And for those who think it is a vile, sleazy, underhanded action … now is the time for you to speak up. Ethical behavior needs your help.
w.
At the beginning of this post I said that there are 50 IPCC climate models. Apparently that is not correct. There are at least 90 of them. Perhaps there may be more. Perhaps there are as many of them as there are stars. Anyway, the important thing is that they are all wrong. So you are all free to go about your lives without worrying about global warming. Great news indeed.
Mr Eschenbach, who has lost all reason, is yet again saying I have “threatened legal action”. I have not, and have no standing to do so. I have suggested that, if Dr Evans sustains damage from the disgraceful allegations on this site, the kindest course is to seek from the courts a declaration that he has not fabricated anything. Stop shouting and read.
And it is not for Mr Eschenbach to decide whether Dr Evans has been damaged. It is for Dr Evans (and, if necessary, the courts) to decide. The likely effect of the libel, if Dr Evans’ work turns out to be as important as the snappers and snarlers apprehend that it may be, for otherwise there would be no point in their snapping and snarling, would be that the climate communists would gleefully spread it everywhere. That has happened to me before, because I was not firm enough quickly enough.
As to the libel law, truth has always been at the core of the standard defence against libel in the law of England of Wales; of Scotland; and in all Australian states. And the purpose of the libel law is to prevent damage to the reputation of the innocent by malicious falsehoods. The wider the circulation, the greater the libel; and this blog has the widest circulation of all the climate blogs. I have now had some preliminary advice; and, subject to one or two details, it is that, as I had suspected, the attack on Dr Evans is a grave, unjustifiable libel and that damages, were he to decide to go down that route, would be substantial.
And Dr Evans is working hard to update all the datasets, make sure the model is working as it should, take account of legitimate comments as opposed to petulant screeching, and to release his code and his data, in the most accessible and most comprehensive manner, just as soon as it is ready. He has admirably disclosed an outline of his work in advance, though he had no obligation to do so. And he will release the detail just as soon as he can. He is rightly not prepared to be bullied into releasing half-finished work.
And those who think I should have “corrected” a graph published without my knowledge alongside an article of mine would assist me if they were to let me know, after looking at the page in question, what corrections they would have made. The graphs did not purport to be the IPCC’s graphs and were not labeled as such: they were plainly schematics (as was the 1990 IPCC graph); and they seem to have been drawn with the intention of demonstrating that the 1990 graph showed the medieval warm period and the little ice age and no 20th-century uptick, while the 2001 graph showed no MWP or LIA but did show a 20th-century uptick (which the squidging of the graph to make it fit the page had the effect of minimizing).
I did get the date of the 1990 graph wrong by five years because the graph was sent to me by an eminent professor who had inadvertently misdated it, and I was not able to verify it directly because the IPCC reports in question were not then online and I was a very sick man, confined to barracks and quite unable even to travel to the nearest village, let alone to the nearest university library 150 miles away. It was not until two years later that I was cured, and by then the world had moved on.
The fuss over these graphs seems to have been circulated by a particular individual with the intention of doing harm to my reputation, and not with the intention of making any legitimate or serious scientific point. But, if there is some scientific significance to whatever is thought to be wrong with the two graphs in the form in which they appeared in the Telegraph, then I should be interested to be let in on the secret of what the significance is.
You guys certainly have stamina. I can’t believe that you have not moved on.
To an impartial observer, neither side is covered in glory, and neither can rightly lay claim to the high moral ground in this unedifying spat.
In due course when Evans finally formally publishes his paper, hopefully he will at the same time release his data and codes. If he fails to do so, and fails to comply with a request, after his paper is formally published, then if the data and code is not released, it will undermine what he says in his paper, and may render his paper valueless. That is the time to put up, or shut up. It is not now.
Come on guys, let go, and move on. It is getting boring, and it is not advancing either side’s case. .
PS. If anyone cares about English Law, and I can’t believe that anyone does, since what ‘we’ on this site are all interested in is the science, not the law, truth has always been a defence to the tort of defamation. It is a requirement of the tort that a false statement be published. That is not some recent development, and of course, most former colonies (and I include the States in that) have much of their law rooted in English Law. Of course, English Law, like other systeems of Law, is in a state of flux regarding how to deal with the advent of social media.
Good Lord I don’t care a flying fig about your graph or chart or legal issues (or that others have brought it up – don’t care about their opinion on that topic either). I care about alternate proposals, such as Evan’s ill-prepared pre-print speculation to CO2 AGW. He is the one who put it out there for public inspection so it should be sternly critiqued and thoroughly vetted. If he can’t stand the heat, get the hell out of the kitchen and good riddance. In fact I dare say the same thing about myself. That I could not stand the political nature of research was a good sign I was not cut out for such a career.
As for the topic of this thread. We should be FAR more diligent on our side. If a proposal has even the scent of hiding something, or cherry picking, or guesses, or whatever, the author should be brought to task immediately and with unfettered firmness. Why? To cut through our own bias crap as oppositional voices to CO2 proposals. And you dear sir, appear to be loaded with such bias crap. Thank God for the enema immediately provided by true friends. As for a fan club pal review environment, that should be soley the love child of CO2 AGW.
This thread is an embarrassment to the sceptical community. Much douchebaggery has been demonstrated here. Calling someone Jones and Mann. Really? Close to fraudulent? Haven’t released the data in a week. Must have something to hide. Wth? I don’t have half of the scientific knowledge of the average poster here, but I know shameful BS when I read it.
Disgusting.
Travis, it’s been way more than a week.