China and CO2

dotchinaco2new-blog480[1]Guest essay by David Archibald

While in Beijing early this year US Secretary of State John Kerry announced that China and the US, the world’s largest emitters of such gases, had agreed to intensify information-sharing and policy discussions on their plans to limit greenhouse gas emissions after 2020. A few days later in Indonesia, he warned Indonesians that man-made climate change could threaten their entire way of life, deriding those who doubted the existence of “perhaps the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction””. Last week President Obama didn’t wait for policy discussions with the Chinese to be completed and announced new EPA regulations that will gut the US economy. 

But what are the Chinese doing about carbon dioxide? As per a recent US naval officer’s observation on the Chinese that “Ninety per cent of their time is spent on thinking about new and interesting ways to sink our ships and shoot down our planes”, China is adopting new and interesting ways to burn more coal. China is currently burning four billion tonnes of coal per annum while the US burns one billion tonnes for power generation. The new thing they are doing is a massive investment in plants that produce synthetic natural gas from coal according to this article from Scientific American.

Being a post-modern publication, Scientific American doesn’t tell you how much coal those plants will consume. You have to calculate that from the carbon dioxide production figure which is considered to be much more important. And the result is 400 million tonnes per annum – about 40% of the coal that the US burns in power generation. All the pain and suffering the US might endure to reach the new EPA target reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of 30% will be offset by this new Chinese way of burning coal.


 

David Archibald, a Visiting Fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C., is the author of Twilight of Abundance: Why Life in the 21st Century Will Be Nasty, Brutish, and Short (Regnery, 2014).

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Joel O'Bryan
June 11, 2014 12:41 am

Secretary Kerry is moron. He rather throw his military medals in the dumpster and trash the country that gave him that right than admit he was wrong about the coming Global cooling.

johnmarshall
June 11, 2014 1:00 am

The Chinese are not stupid. They know the GHG theory is wrong so pay lip service to any agreement, and burn coal as much as they want. Power is necessary, but 24/7 power is the important thing, that and knowing that Obama is wrong.

Alex
June 11, 2014 1:25 am

Money is God in China and you don’t make money without electricity.

June 11, 2014 1:35 am

“All the pain and suffering the US might endure to reach the new EPA target reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of 30% will be offset by this new Chinese way of burning coal.”
At least there will still be a market for all that americal coal !
Like the XL pipeline fiasco, all the wailing will only change where all the “dirty” colourless gas get released.

pat
June 11, 2014 1:46 am

the most important CAGW news this week yet, except for the Guardian (online only no doubt & with no comments – see below) NO MSM have carried it, yet all subscribe to Reuters!
9 June: Reuters: David Stamway: Chinese official plays down emission cut expectations
Any near-term regulation of China’s greenhouse gas emissions would likely allow for future emissions growth, a senior government official said on Monday, discounting any suggestion of imminent carbon cuts by the biggest-emitting nation.
Sun Cuihua, deputy director of the climate change office at the National Development and Reform Commission, said it would be a simplification to suggest China would impose an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions from 2016.
No decision had yet been taken on a cap and the timing of such a measure was under discussion, she said. Several options were being considered and China would choose policies in accordance with its conditions and stage of development.
“Our understanding of the word ‘cap’ is different from developed countries,” Sun told a conference…
Sun’s comments are likely to cool hopes in international climate negotiations that China could significantly change the base lines by announcing sooner-than-anticipated CO2 cuts…
(Additional reportint by Kathy Chen; Writing by Stian Reklev; Editing by Ron Popeski)
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/09/china-climatechange-idUKL4N0OQ0WB20140609
9 June: Guardian: Chinese official plays down emission cut expectations
Comments likely to cool hopes in UN climate talks that China will announce sooner-than-anticipated CO2 cuts
Sun CuihuaSun Cuihua, deputy director of the climate change office at the National Development and Reform Commission, said it would be a simplification to suggest China would impose an absolute cap on greenhouse gas emissions from 2016…
“Our understanding of the word ‘cap’ is different from developed countries,” Sun told a conference…
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/09/chinese-official-plays-down-emission-cut-expectations

Garfy
June 11, 2014 1:51 am

“money is god in china” and “in god we trust” – unfortunately it is the new world order – and we shall try to escape !!!
http://www.mondialisation.ca/monsanto-achete-les-services-de-blackwater-la-plus-grande-armee-de-mercenaires-du-monde/5344737

pat
June 11, 2014 1:52 am

***Bloomberg still ignoring the Sun Cuihua reuters’ report; still suggesting China is accelerating towards a “possible cap on carbon emissions”. the propaganda of the headline & opening paras is stunning. however, the second half of the article gives the finger to the Sierra Club:
****make note. Canada & Gulf of Mexico could be the winners.
10 June: Bloomberg: David J. Lynch: China’s Clean-Fuel Focus Tests U.S. Coal-Export Lifeline
Intense opposition on the U.S. West Coast, over climate change, rail congestion and damage to Native American fisheries, already is blocking new export terminals designed to ship coal across the Pacific Ocean. Now, China — which consumes almost as much coal as the rest of the world combined — is accelerating a planned switch to cleaner fuels, ***including a possible cap on carbon emissions and limits on new coal-fired plants…
For U.S. coal producers, getting there is the problem…
The latest setback came May 30 when Oregon state regulators put off until August a decision on the proposed Morrow Pacific terminal, the eighth in a series of delays that have frustrated investors and executives. Three days later, the Obama administration proposed regulations to cut carbon emissions, underscoring the imperative for coal producers to develop foreign markets.
“We’re winning,” says Cesia Kearns of the Sierra Club’s “Beyond Coal” campaign…
In January, China, the world’s biggest coal consumer, brought forward to this year a previously announced goal of reducing its dependence upon coal to less than 65 percent of its energy usage by 2017…
***The sheer size of the economy — now the world’s second largest — means that slower growth than this year’s 7.5 percent target won’t prevent electricity demand from increasing. As total power generation more than doubles by 2030, China will be adding capacity equal to the entire U.K. power grid each year with coal firing 58 percent of the system, according to a 2013 Bloomberg New Energy Finance study…
‘Staggering’ Consumption
“Look at any projections of the amount of coal that China is going to use in the next 20, 30 years, it’s quite staggering,” said Colin Marshall, chief executive officer of Cloud Peak Energy Inc. (CLD), a Gillette, Wyoming-based company that operates three surface mines in the Powder River Basin.
****And even if the West Coast terminals don’t materialize, Asia-bound exports could continue via Canada or through the Gulf of Mexico to an expanded Panama Canal, though less profitably, industry executives say…
The three terminals that are still alive — Morrow Pacific in Boardman, Oregon; Gateway Pacific in Cherry Point, Washington; and Millennium Bulk in Longview, Washington — could almost double U.S. exports…
Though Europe absorbs about half of U.S. exports, Asia — with roughly one-quarter — has been a faster-growing market for U.S. producers.
Since 2009, when China first became a net importer of coal, only the U.K.’s demand has increased faster…
Under an urbanization drive announced in March, China plans to move 100 million more rural residents to cities by 2020. Five new national transport corridors will knit together the country with new rail and road links, supporting demand for coal-fueled steel and electricity production…
China used 3.6 billion metric tons of coal in 2012 and is projected to need 4.8 billion in 2020, Liang Jiakun, vice head of the China National Coal Association, said last year…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-10/china-s-clean-fuel-focus-tests-u-s-coal-export-lifeline.html
11 June: Bloomberg: IEA Cuts Gas Use Growth Forecast as Coal, Renewables Gain
By Anna Shiryaevskaya
Global natural gas demand will increase at a slower rate than previously expected through 2019 amid weaker economic growth and competition from coal and renewables, according to the International Energy Agency. …
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-10/iea-cuts-gas-use-growth-forecast-as-coal-renewables-gain.html

pat
June 11, 2014 1:59 am

i fear this will go into moderation, but…
a tale to cheer the hear of CAGW sceptics:
9 June: Breitbart: Christian Toto: Obama to Talk Climate Change on Showtime’s ‘Years of Living Dangerously’ Finale
Now, the pay cable has recruited the Celebrity-in-Chief himself to personally push the panic button.
President Barack Obama will be interviewed by liberal columnist Thomas L. Friedman on the miniseries’ final installment, set to air at 8 p.m. EST tonight.
Obama and Friedman will explore how climate change, according to Showtime, “can be a stressor that can take a volatile political situation and push it over the edge.”…
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Hollywood/2014/06/09/obama-showtime-climate-change
“Years of Living Dangerously” doesn’t even make the Top 100 for its Obama finale!
10 June: TVbythenumbers: Sara Bibel: Monday 9 June Cable Ratings
http://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/2014/06/10/monday-cable-ratings-love-hip-hop-atlanta-wins-night-wwe-raw-major-crimes-hit-the-floor-longmire-more/272103/
***what viewers? LOL.
9 June: Epoch Times: Zachary Stieber: Years of Living Dangerously Season 2? Will Showtime Series Be Renewed or Canceled?
Years of Living Dangerously season 1 wraps up on Showtime on June 9 and ***viewers are wondering whether there will be a season 2…
There’s been no word yet on a season 2, but it doesn’t seem likely that there will be one.
The ratings have been so low that the show hasn’t been on the top 100 cable shows for its night for most of the season.
Showbuzz called the ratings “dismal,” coming in at about 45,680 households for one of the episodes. At the same time, the free full episode 1, available on YouTube through Showtime, has gotten over 500,000 views.
http://www.theepochtimes.com/n3/724937-years-of-living-dangerously-season-2-will-showtime-series-be-renewed-or-canceled/

Garfy
June 11, 2014 2:26 am

Bill Gates Sponsoring Boko Haram To Replace Indigenous …
newsrescue.com/bill-gates-sponsoring-boko-haram-re…Traduire cette page
3 mai 2014 – Bill Gates Sponsoring Boko Haram To Replace Indigenous Farmers With Monsanto, GMO’s —Global Prolife Alliance. bill gates agric
what are they going to sponsor in China ??

ozspeaksup
June 11, 2014 2:38 am

Garfy, gate/msoft IBm etc have all taken a hit as Chinas got tired of their snooping..and they are shifting to home /asian made pcs and a Linux based system they developed
also Chinas refused GMO shipments from the usa and now has ruled that NO GMO foods are to be purchased for govt/Mil use.

Neville
June 11, 2014 2:48 am

This EIA chart shows the co2 emission projections for the OECD and non OECD ( China, India etc ) from 2010 to 2040.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/table20.cfm The OECD will almost flat line for those 30 years while the Non OECD emissions will be nearly 10 times as high.
Of course while China and India emissions have soared the USA has dropped emissions back to early 1990s levels over the last 5 years, due to more useage of gas.

Editor
June 11, 2014 3:28 am

Some more numbers here.
Coal consumption in 2012:
China – 3838Mt
USA – 821Mt
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/06/11/china-coal/

Steve from Rockwood
June 11, 2014 4:08 am

China still has a number of unplayed cards in its hands, two strong ones being the ability to upgrade existing dirty coal generating stations (to claim reductions in pollution) and then switching from coal to gas (major CO2 reductions without cutting energy use). By that time it will easily be the world’s largest economy, driving the global agenda and not simply ignoring it. I wonder what America’s economy will look like by then – 20 years or less.

June 11, 2014 4:26 am

What is that old saying? “Man plans, and God laughs”? Now it is Obama plans and the Chinese laugh.

kramer
June 11, 2014 5:06 am

Does anybody wonder why China’s emissions increased at a higher rate around 2002?
Answer: PNTR.
Near the end of 2000, Clinton, after he and the DNC were charged with taking illegal contributions from the communist Chinese government, granted them PNTR (along with the Republican congress).
You can see the results on the following graph of manufacturing jobs:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s%5B1%5D%5Bid%5D=MANEMP
This is why China is getting richer and we are getting poorer. Read “The Wealth of Nations” to get an idea of how manufacturing goods from natural resources creates wealth.
[You need to explain to other readers what your abbreviation PNTR means if you want other readers to understand your argument, or to agree with your argument, or to repeat your argument. .mod]

Don B
June 11, 2014 5:10 am

Obama’s carbon dioxide reduction schemes will cause the US to follow the UK down the rat hole.
“The UK government will today set out Second World War-style measures to keep the lights on and avert power cuts as a “last resort”. The price to Britons will be high.
“Factories will be asked to “voluntarily” shut down to save energy at peak times for homes, while others will be paid to provide their own backup power should they have a spare generator or two lying around. And as part of the government’s wider energy market reforms, electricity producers will be able to name their price for bringing mothballed fossil-fuel-powered plants back on line.
“The problem is that the energy plants were closed due to compliance with EU environmental regulations, but the UK has failed to build adequate replacements. This means the country can barely cope with peak winter demand. Successive governments have chosen to build expensive, unreliable renewables instead – which can’t meet the nation’s peak energy needs.”
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/06/10/uk_preps_ww2style_energy_rationing/

arthur4563
June 11, 2014 5:14 am

These claims about Chinese energy efforts are totally inadequate. They don’t even mention China’s current massive nuclear plant construction program, the fact that China is also moving ahead of the U.S. in fast reactor deployment (waaaay ahead), the fact that China can now build a complete version (and an enhanced version as well) of the Westinghouse AP1000,, the most advanced Gen 3 nuclear technology the U.S. has. In the past several months, China has powered up and grid-connected three new nuclear plants, and has 37 currently under construction.They will be adding one new plant per month for the next 3 years and have already given pre-orders for 25 Westinghouse AP1000 plants in addition to the hundreds they will build themselves. The last figures I saw was a plan for 600 nuclear plants by mid century and 1600 by 2100. Any report on Chinese energy plans that fails to even mention their nuclear program is flat-out incompetent. China has little in the way of natural gas or high quality coal, which is the major reason for their pollution. China is rightly most concerned about real pollution, not CO2 emissions. They are also building facilities to receive LPG as imports. Trying to avoid the high price of LPG is a very good reason for attempting to gassify their poor quality coal resources. The fastest means of combatting their pollution would be a switch to natural gas as quickly as possible, but that’s not their overall, long term solution. Nuclear power will also provide a source of power that cannot be controlled by a foreign country, especially when operating fast reactors.

Latitude
June 11, 2014 5:23 am

burning more coal….produces more CO2…..which causes temperatures to rise linearly
if this trend continues
….fail

Leo Geiger
June 11, 2014 5:42 am

The number that is relevant for emissions reduction policies and climate change is the total cumulative emissions, not annual emissions. Developed nations have a big emissions head start. In round numbers, the United States has still put 1.5 to 2 times more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere than China has up to now. Even with annual U.S. emissions reductions and annual Chinese growth, it will probably take until about 2030 for the Chinese to catch up.
http://www.pbl.nl/en/publications/countries-contributions-to-climate-change
The position of developing nations is simple: developed nations have led the way with their emissions and put the majority of the excess greenhouse gas into the atmosphere up until now, so they can lead the way with reductions.

beng
June 11, 2014 6:05 am

China is playing Obama & Kerry like fools.

Alex
June 11, 2014 6:06 am

There is a fundamental difference between China and western thinking. China is not the west + or- something. The western journalists in China hang around in journalist bars in Beijing and pick up releases from the government thereby justifying their expense accounts. The reality of things , on the ground, are totally different. Strange as it might seem but China is a strong believer in human rights. The right to have a full belly, the right to have a job, the right to look after your family and feel secure in your home, the right to not be ripped off by the government or some corporation, the right to speak out without causing disharmony in the community.
Under those rights the whole Wall st debacle would have never happened and if it did then the organs of those executives would be in other people now and their assets and those of their immediate family would have been stripped. I think more than 90% of US people would probably agree with the last part.
In conclusion ‘You know nothing John Snow’

richardscourtney
June 11, 2014 6:28 am

Leo Geiger:
At June 11, 2014 at 5:42 am you say

The number that is relevant for emissions reduction policies and climate change is the total cumulative emissions, not annual emissions. Developed nations have a big emissions head start. In round numbers, the United States has still put 1.5 to 2 times more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere than China has up to now. Even with annual U.S. emissions reductions and annual Chinese growth, it will probably take until about 2030 for the Chinese to catch up.

Our estimates differ.
I suggest it will probably take until about 2025 for the Chinese to catch up and after that to out-do the GHG emissions of “developed nations”.
Of course, none of this is “relevant for emissions reduction policies and climate change”.
If the improbable assertions of AGW are correct then what matters for policies to constrain AGW is increase to total atmospheric CO2 and the contributions of individual nations to that increase.
And if the policy objective is totalitarian control then the Chinese government already has it while constraint of GHG emissions is the policy tool other governments want to use to obtain it.
Richard

Sasha
June 11, 2014 6:55 am

CHINA PLAYS THE AGW GAME
China will most likely never cooperate with the transatlantic oligarchy’s misanthropic, genocidal, and fraudulent global warming agenda, which is designed solely to keep developing nations in a backwards and primitive state. This can be concisely summarized by the term “eco-imperialism.”
China’s position on global warming:
1. There is no global warming at the moment; we’ve been in a global cooling period for years.
2. There is absolutely no empirical evidence showing that human activities have any discernible impact on the Earth’s climate.
China and India have no intention of reducing carbon output as it will destroy their developing economies. Can you blame them?..the US has built the major economy in the world on the back of cheap electricity. India has also said “We will not limit our emissions. Period.”
Copenhagen has made the world leaders realize the reality that the world doesn’t care about climate change. Man-made climate change is a fraud, and a joke-religion. The Earth will survive, mankind will adapt, dire consequences will not be realized.
China’s goal in 2010 was to reduce energy consumption per unit of economic output by 20% compared with 2005, and to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases per unit of economic output by 40 to 45% in 2020 compared with 2005. But even if China can make the promised improvements, the International Energy Agency now projects that China’s emissions of energy-related CO2 will grow more than the rest of the world’s combined increase by 2020. China, with one-fifth of the world’s population, is now on track to represent more than a quarter of humanity’s energy-related CO2 emissions.
China uses twice as much energy per dollar of output as the United States and three times as much as the European Union. The assumption is that China can greatly improve efficiency because it must still be relying mainly on wasteful, aging boilers and outmoded power plants. But David Fridley, a longtime specialist in China’s energy at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, said that the comparison to the United States and the European Union was misleading. Manufacturing makes up three times as much of the Chinese economy as it does the American economy, and it is energy-intensive. If the United States had much more manufacturing, Mr. Fridley said, it would also use considerably more energy per dollar of output.
China has passed the United States in the average efficiency of its coal-fired power plants. Demand for electricity is so voracious that in just one year (2009) China built new coal-fired plants with a total capacity greater than all existing power plants in New York State.
The central government has ordered cities to close inefficient factories like the vast Guangzhou Steel mill, where most of the 6,000 workers were laid off or pushed into early retirement. Between 2007 and 2010 China shut down more than a thousand older coal-fired power plants that used technology of the sort still common in the United States. China has also surpassed the rest of the world as the biggest investor in wind turbines and other so-called “clean” energy technology. And it has dictated tough new energy standards for lighting and gas mileage for cars.
China believes it should have the right to develop free from carbon reductions until their accumulated emissions are on par with industrialized countries. A Brookings Institute report: “Overcoming Obstacles to US-China Cooperation on Climate Change” articulated Beijing’s stance, which included the conviction that: “Countries should be held responsible not only for their current emissions but also for their cumulative historical emissions, given that greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere over many decades.” This plan is China’s most comprehensive effort to date to both highlight and quantify development inequalities as a justification for releasing China and other developing countries from emissions reduction expectations.
China insists that it is still a poor country deserving of the rest of the world’s assistance; not the other way around. As China sheds its status as a developing country, it will increasingly be able to act as a patron and stakeholder. In times like these, and on subjects like CO2 reduction, China plays the “developing country” card, in hopes it will give them reprieve from costly and complicated climate commitments.
A report “Journey to world top emitter,” published in Geophysical Research Letters, concludes that 50% of increases in Chinese CO2 emissions between 2002 to 2005 were due to export production, of which 60% came from goods exported to western countries. This study, and others like it, point to Western consumption-driven culpability.
The scholarship-supported assignment of guilt is shaping China’s position on the terms of the next climate change treaty. During a trip to Washington, senior climate official, Li Gao, insisted that China’s export sector be exempt from carbon emissions reductions in the next treaty on climate change. Given the state of the global economy, and China’s latest posturing on financial and environmental commitments, China’s leverage in the international arena is clearly on the rise.
The Chinese are very clever. They claim they’re doing all they can to lower their “bad emissions” and they chastise America for not doing the same. They must be very amused to watch the West injure their economies as their leaders ram their “clean, green” energy agenda down our throats. The Chinese must rub their hands together with glee to watch the great American empire destroy itself from within. Obama refers to this as a “redistribution” of wealth.
But even if America and western Europe destroy their economies in an ignorant and vain attempt to somehow control the climate, China has no intent or ability to control their growth and its production of CO2.
The Chinese have a seemingly insatiable appetite for the finer things in life, like heat the winter, air conditioning in the summer, adequate food, electricity to light their homes and power their tools and toys, and fuel for their automobiles and trucks. How can the climate hysterics keep all those Chinese “down on the farm” so-to-speak, and living in poverty? How dare they aspire to improve their lives? Don’t they know it is only rich, liberal Americans who deserve to live the “good life”? Just look to the Kerrys, Pelosis, Boxers, Reids, Gores and now the Obamas for examples of how to live the good life while telling everyone else they must sacrifice.

Scott
June 11, 2014 6:56 am

PM Harper of Canada stated it well the other day, Canada and Australia are more “frank” than other countries when it comes to cutting CO2. No country will intentionally destroy jobs and economy to meet CO2 outputs.
Personally he is being a bit naive as we have seen Spain and Germany doing that(Australia was and trying to reverse), but he must walk a fine line as he is constantly vilified by the GW crowd…

Alex
June 11, 2014 7:01 am

At some point common sense is going to ‘kick-in’ in the west. Lets hope it kicks in before we become provinces of China or maybe India

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