Will the forecasted El Niño later this year produce a new record? Spencer comments.
June 10th, 2014 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 5.6 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for May, 2014 is +0.33 deg. C, up from April (click for full size version):
The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 17 months are:
YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2013 1 +0.497 +0.517 +0.478 +0.386
2013 2 +0.203 +0.372 +0.033 +0.195
2013 3 +0.200 +0.333 +0.067 +0.243
2013 4 +0.114 +0.128 +0.101 +0.165
2013 5 +0.082 +0.180 -0.015 +0.112
2013 6 +0.295 +0.335 +0.255 +0.220
2013 7 +0.173 +0.134 +0.211 +0.074
2013 8 +0.158 +0.111 +0.206 +0.009
2013 9 +0.365 +0.339 +0.390 +0.190
2013 10 +0.290 +0.331 +0.249 +0.031
2013 11 +0.193 +0.160 +0.226 +0.020
2013 12 +0.266 +0.272 +0.260 +0.057
2014 1 +0.291 +0.387 +0.194 -0.029
2014 2 +0.170 +0.320 +0.020 -0.103
2014 3 +0.170 +0.338 +0.002 -0.001
2014 4 +0.190 +0.358 +0.022 +0.093
2014 5 +0.329 +0.326 +0.333 +0.173
This is the 3rd warmest May in the satellite record:
1998 +0.56 (warm ENSO)
2010 +0.45 (warm ENSO)
2014 +0.33 (neutral)
John Christy thinks the coming El Nino will give us a new temperature record, since it is superimposed on a warmer baseline than the super El Nino of 1997-98. I’m not convinced, since we are in the cool phase of the PDO, which favors weak El Ninos (like 2009-10).
As we finish up our new Version 6 of the UAH dataset, it looks like our anomalies in the 2nd half of the satellite record will be slightly cooler, somewhat more like the RSS dataset….but we are talking small adjustments here…hundredths of a deg. C.
The global image for May should be available in the next day or so here.
Popular monthly data files (these might take a few days to update):
uahncdc_lt_5.6.txt (Lower Troposphere)
uahncdc_mt_5.6.txt (Mid-Troposphere)
uahncdc_ls_5.6.txt (Lower Stratosphere)
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“.but we are talking small adjustments here…”
Wait, the historical record is being changed..
…hundredths of a deg. C.
Still no sign of the next ice age then?=
Dan,
Nor of the oceans boiling! Boring, eh?
So looking at the UAH temperature plot we see that currently we are about 0.4C warmer than in late 1996 on an annual basis or 0.3C warmer on the 13 month running mean.
We also see that since 2002 temperature has been fairly flat, but consistently warmer than pre-2000, apart from the 1998 El Nino spike.
Why does this matter ? Because Lord Monckton states as if fact that there has been no warming since August 1996. On the UAH record at least he is plainly wrong. If he said since 2002 he might have an argument.
Dr. Spencer, why does UAH and RSS seem more affected by changes in ENSO? It appears that the surface data sets show much less of variance in those events. Thank you for your explanation in advance.
James Abbott says:
…Lord Monckton states as if fact that there has been no warming since August 1996.
Lord Monckton is exactly right.
I was looking at the SOI a day or two ago, and it has slid back positive.
I don’t think the ENSOR temp stays up long enough to become a documented El Niño.
Temp this year holds steady and begins to fall next year with a new La Niña.
In reply to James Abbot, if you go to the link above the chart on Monckton’s article, the temperature record there substantiates his statement, but I found that the RSS interpretation of the data differs from UAH data. There are large discrepancies in the resulting record. Here is a link to the RSS record.
http://www.remss.com/data/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt
Wikipedia explains the difference, but with an obvious warmist disparagement.
Sidney Somes,
Satellite data is the very best because it is the most accurate. In effect, it takes a snapshot of the globe, whereas other methods use a thermometer network that leaves out large parts of the globe.
RSS is satellite data. This is from 1996:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1996.
[snip – fake email address -mod]
I think it is of academic interest whether the hiatus is 20 or 15 years. I will wait for the next El Nino. And the supposed hidden warmth in the ocean. It should immerse…or else…
For those who missed the links I included on a couple of threads yesterday, I posted the full sea surface temperature update:
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/may-2014-sea-surface-temperature-sst-anomaly-update/
Regards
Andy, the main reason why ENSO is stronger in satellite data than in surface data is the due to the heat lost by the surface through evaporation (which cools the surface) is dumped in the middle and upper troposphere by the resulting condensation of that water vapor into precipitation.
It’s the “hot spot”, which exists for interannual climate variability, but apparently not in decadal trends.
James Abbott says: June 10, 2014 at 10:03 am
I’m pretty sure he says “there has been no statistically significant warming since whenever“, established by working backwards until warming does become statistically significant using least squares linear regression. And he is always careful to quote the R² value of the resulting linear trend line as being close to zero (i.e. meaningless).
He is deftly taking the Michael out of clowns with rulers who think linear regression can be usefully applied to complex coupled non-linear chaotic systems or, worse, that doing so implies predictive skill. More power to his exquisitely leather-clad elbow, one day reality may even sink in!
Can you feel a few tenths of a degree warming per decade and what is the usual variation where you live? Here’s a clue:
http://s28.postimg.org/mdztgmwaj/UAH.png
[297KB click on image in browser to enlarge, standard deviations on the right]
Andy says: “Dr. Spencer, why does UAH and RSS seem more affected by changes in ENSO? It appears that the surface data sets show much less of variance in those events. Thank you for your explanation in advance.”
Just in case Roy doesn’t reply, I believe the answer is: In the tropics, the lower troposphere is responding to the El Nino in two ways. First, the atmosphere is warming in response to the warmer surface temperatures. Second, the atmosphere is also responding to the additional evaporation taking place from the ocean surface, and warming when the additional moisture condenses back to a liquid. The same holds true for a La Nina, but cools with a cooler surface and with less evaporation and condensation.
There you have it, Andy. Not only did Roy reply, but he beat me to the answer.
Roy Spencer writes: “As we finish up our new Version 6 of the UAH dataset, it looks like our anomalies in the 2nd half of the satellite record will be slightly cooler…”
Any idea when you’ll be releasing Version 6?
James Abbott says: “Why does this matter ? Because Lord Monckton states as if fact that there has been no warming since August 1996. On the UAH record at least he is plainly wrong.”
But Christopher Monckton does not use UAH TLT data. He uses RSS TLT data. Both are valid. If memory serves, RSS and UAH simply use different satellites in recent years.
Bob, we keep thinking it’s going to be “next month” but we keep finding little issues here and there. All of our processing steps have been changed, and all of the software rewritten, so it’s been a major effort. We are SO close now.
Dan says on June 10, 2014 at 8:52 am:
“Still no sign of the next ice age then”
==+======
Oh yes there is (or are – as there are many) but not if you just look at the satellite records which only go back to the latter part of the 20th century.
But in any case, you and I may never have to worry about the coming of the next “Glaciation” (We have been in “an ‘Ice Age’ for a couple of million years – or a bit more – so far) so we can continue to look at (amuse ourselves with) “warm spikes” and “cold thoughts” for a few more years yet.
Has anyone else noticed that the average arctic temperature seems to now be stuck well below freezing when it’s supposed to be on the positive side by now?
I don’t recall the anomaly at the usual crossing date being near as negative last year, a sign of things to come?
AGT is only an indicator of global warming it is not necessarily linked. Many other observations must be considered to determine the warming or cooling of the planet. Satellites show the earth is retaining more heat – so, somewhere, it is warming. Probably deep ocean.
Mr Abbott say I state as fact that there has been no global warming since 1996. No, I state as fact that there has been no global warming on the RSS dataset since 1996. I publish regular posts looking at the mean of the RSS and UAH datasets, showing no warming for 13+ years on the combined datasets. Don’t pick nits.
Mr Abbot, do as you’re told, and please don’t tease the irascible Mr M 😉