While we have done this usually a week ahead in prior years, I’m very late out of the gate this year, as I have a lot of distractions and work on my plate.
Due to the deadline being today, this will be a short poll that will close at 5PM PST today. Get your votes in.
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From: http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook
First Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
June Report (Based on May data)
Submission deadline: Tuesday, 10 June 2014
Contact: Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Since 2008, the annual SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) has obtained over 300 community predictions of the September sea ice extent.
This year represents a transition for the SIO, as it is now managed as part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project as a contribution to SEARCH. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales by developing a network of scientists and stakeholders to advance research on sea ice prediction. At a recent workshop and over the past few years, SIO contributors and users have offered many recommendations for expanding the SIO. Starting this year, the SIO reports will be responsive to these recommendations and will evolve to a more robust scientific tool. While keeping the same general structure for the SIO as before, it is time to encourage more model participation and expand the information provided from model activities.
For the June and July reports (using May and June data, respectively), we request pan-Arctic Outlooks. Later in the season (early August), while updates to pan-Arctic Outlooks will be welcome, we will primarily focus on regional forecasts. However, contributions for pan-Arctic and regional will be accepted during all periods.
We will also post a separate announcement calling for participants in a SIPN Action Team to work with us to further develop and steer the details of SIO reports as the season develops.
We encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks this year and we also hope to see new participants.
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The contest is to forecast the September monthly average Arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers).
For a primer, see the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page
This year, a model forecast from NOAA CFSv2 says that we might see something well above 6.0 million square kilometers:
Source: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif
If they are right, that line from September to October would put the average somewhere around 8 million, with a minimum of about 6.7 and much earlier. I find that a bit hard to believe, since it would be a return to minimum sea ice values of the 1980’s:
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) – Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System (ROOS) – Click the pic to view at source
OTOH, Arctic temperature is running below normal:
Arctic Temperature:
Mean Temperature above 80°N
Danish Meteorological Institute – Click the pic to view at source
So since the possible range this year is so wide, I’m limiting the poll to increments of 250,000 sq Km instead of the 100,000 used in previous years. Otherwise I’ll exceed the maximum number of poll questions.
POLL CLOSED AS DEADLINE IS TODAY
As I did last year, I will submit the weighted average value of the top 5 vote-getters.
UPDATE: The poll closed as we have the deadline looming, and here are the results of the weighted average, which totals over 50 percent of the votes:
A value of 6.12 million sq km will be sent to ARCUS.
Tool: http://handymath.com/cgi-bin/wghtedavg4.cgi
Steven Mosher says:
June 10, 2014 at 1:00 pm
Can you do the same chart for 2013, 2012, 2011, … with the outcome marked on each graph so we can see how good it is as an estimator?
How can it be anywhere above 5.5 million sq km? 6 or 7 looks like what people voted, but that’s crazy. I know we have a bit more multi-year ice now, but just one bad wind pattern and it’s all gone.
6.8, but had to pick 6.75
I’m with you, MrX. I went for 5.25, but I probably was thinking of minimum rather than mean, so maybe 5.5 is a better guess. I’d feel better about pushing up towards NOAA’s estimates if any details were given of their model. Thick ice has indeed increased, but there’s still plenty of 1m ice to disappear.
Rich.
It is not at all clear to me what Source evaluation is being asked in the poll?
Is the September estimate to be from:
* NOAA NWS/NCEP/CPC
* National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC) – 15% or Greater?
* IARC – JAXA
* Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) – Centre for Ocean and Ice
* Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) – Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System (ROOS)
* NORSEX SSM/I (Nansen)
* Cryosphere
???
Stephen Rasey says:
June 10, 2014 at 3:39 pm
It is not at all clear to me what Source evaluation is being asked in the poll?
It’s based on the September mean of the NSIDC sea ice extent.
The crypto comment served its purpose.
What do people see when you show them an inkblot.
Pretty simple.
Surprised nobody figured out the purpose.
REPLY: Oh please, stop playing games. – Anthony
Steven, it appears to me you are making the same mistake solar enthusiasts make. Let me explain. You are connecting increased CO2 to decreased Arctic ice, ascribing a cause without plausible mechanism so you must depend on wriggle watching. Solar enthusiasts do the same thing. The Earth warmed while someone said the Sun was active so the cause must be an active Sun. Now that the Sun is quiet, any cooling must also be caused by the Sun. Wriggle watching. Trouble is, the historical data was not as accurate as we thought. So now the solar enthusiasts will be left without their cause. I believe you will too.
I doubt the minimum will be much different than last year for several reasons. First, it was a warm winter in the Arctic which means the ice did not thicken as much as it could have. Second, we still have lots of soot being emitted. Third, Russian river warmth is still going to impact the ice near them. Fourth, the geothermal impact off the northwest coast of Greenland appears to be strong. Finally, the warming due to the coming El Nino has already led to less ice on the Pacific side.
Given the time difference between the US and Japan, I wasn’t able to vote…
My prediction is 5.5 million KM^2.
I think that the warmest Arctic temps this winter since DMI temp records started in 1958, lead to less ice being formed in the Arctic this winter, which will lead to rapid thawing this summer.
This rapid thaw will lead to more open water in the Arctic and more Arctic ocean heat loss during the summer months, which will lead to a rapid ice recovery as witnessed in the fall of 2012 following the strong one-in-50-yr cyclone that tore up Arctic ice in the summer of 2012.
With the 30-yr AMO warm cycle winding down and the PDO 30-yr cool cycle already in effect since 2005, Arctic sea ice will slowly begin to recover and CAGW’s ice-free Arctic prediction will be yet another prediction not supported by empirical evidence….
This CAGW scam is starting to implode on a monthly basis. The CAGW advocates will get their 3-yr El Niño temp spike between now and 2016, but when the 2017 La Niña cycle occurs, the then 20+ year flat/falling trend will continue, which should pretty much put an end to the CAGW hypothesis by the end of 2018. The gigantic discrepancies between CAGW projections vs. reality will be too great to explain away.
It is noteworthy that temperature anomalies in the Atlantic. This is of course result of the circulation. Cooling is explicit, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico. This will have consequences for the Gulf Stream.
http://oi60.tinypic.com/i6a2d4.jpg
FergalR
Triple distilled Irish Whiskey is far superior to the Scots’ peat-soaked crud as you well know.
And don’t forget Chwisgi, we do make it in Wales! Most of it is fine with a drop of water, but not the awful habit of some cultures dropping large chunks of ice into a fine malt. Save the stuff for the Arctic!
phlogiston says:
June 10, 2014 at 10:18 am
I too saw that programme re the glass eel run on the Severn and agree completely with your post.
Now we need to see a recovery in the Sea Trout populations of the UK which declined in tandem with the warming AMO and whose numbers appear to me to have reponded to recent short cooling periods.
Certainly that seems to be the case as far as Herling are concerned.
The graph from Mr Pettit No 3 is labelled 2014 arctic sea ice extent projections based on 2003 – 2013 gains and losses. The one based on 2012 shows of course an even greater loss than 2012. It seems remarkable that the only input into the graphs is to take the starting point and then say run 2014 the same as year x with a probable 5% drop in all cases.
That is not a very clever idea, possibly kindergarten level as there is no scientific input of current conditions whatsoever and with the only idea to push the possibility of a lower extent this year.
For Steven to put up this simpleton graph shows the level of desperation he has sunk to. I have admired and do admire his ideas, intellect, arguments and input.
However when other people put up this sort of rubbish as an argument he slaps them down pretty hard and asks them to think. I would ask him to think pretty hard about his use of this simpleton’s graph.
Further to this Mr Pettit also has a couple of graphs up at the Arctic Sea Ice Blog. This site has run out of date graphs for the last 18 months to promote the idea of death spirals etc. Some have stayed stuck on 2012 to promote an erroneous idea of drastic cooling and low PIOMAS over the last 18 months. Mosher has praised the site on his visits in the past but obviously only reads the comments and does not look at the graphs.
The death spiral graph is pretty interesting from another point of view. Mr Petit starts off with 3 decades but skips the forth one (why?). He puts the last 12 years in grey (hard to see) outlines 2014 then compares it to a sum of the last 4 years. This effect is designed to be misleading. Mosher knows this but he puts it up anyway.
For a man of principles this is hitting below the belt, arguing with emotion not reason for once and I would like you to call him out on this and ask for an apology.
I would expect one and a “better set of graphs ” if he wants to play this game in future.
hummmm….
there had been more ice growth last year… but I would bet on 4.25 milions.
mostly because some parts melt every year(no matter their thickness), and those that dont do have thinner thickness this year… so 4 to 4.25.
my bet 4.25.
But My heart want to see 2! ans 0 next year… but of course, climate doesnt change that fast, or else we would be extinct in 50 years.
Mat says:
June 11, 2014 at 11:21 am
But My heart want to see 2! ans 0 next year
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It’s like I told you. You need to keep sticking the pins into that voodoo map of the Arctic, which I sent you. It just takes time. Be patient, the pin pricks are cumulative, and you can take that to the bank.
Is it possible that NOAA made this prediction artificially high so that the September headlines can read “Arctic Ice Even Lower than NOAA Predicted!” ?
You will not have to wait up to 5 years.
“Ice extent was lower than average in the Barents and Bering seas. While not visible in the monthly average extent plot, the evolution of the sea ice through the month of May is characterized by the opening of several polynyas along the coast of Siberia, northern Baffin Bay, and along the coast
of Hudson Bay. Nevertheless, satellites detected high sea ice concentrations over the Arctic as a whole.
This contrasts with 2006, 2007, and 2012 when broad areas of low-concentration ice were observed.
As the melt season is underway in the Arctic, freeze up is in progress in the Antarctic. Sea ice extent for May averaged 12.03 million square kilometers (4.64 million square miles). This is 1.24 million square kilometers (478,800 square miles) above the 1981 to 2010 average for the month. Antarctic sea ice for May 2014 currently ranks as the highest May extent in the satellite.”
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/