While we have done this usually a week ahead in prior years, I’m very late out of the gate this year, as I have a lot of distractions and work on my plate.
Due to the deadline being today, this will be a short poll that will close at 5PM PST today. Get your votes in.
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From: http://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook
First Call for Sea Ice Outlook Contributions
June Report (Based on May data)
Submission deadline: Tuesday, 10 June 2014
Contact: Helen Wiggins, ARCUS
Since 2008, the annual SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) has obtained over 300 community predictions of the September sea ice extent.
This year represents a transition for the SIO, as it is now managed as part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project as a contribution to SEARCH. The goal of the SIO is to improve sea ice prediction on seasonal time-scales by developing a network of scientists and stakeholders to advance research on sea ice prediction. At a recent workshop and over the past few years, SIO contributors and users have offered many recommendations for expanding the SIO. Starting this year, the SIO reports will be responsive to these recommendations and will evolve to a more robust scientific tool. While keeping the same general structure for the SIO as before, it is time to encourage more model participation and expand the information provided from model activities.
For the June and July reports (using May and June data, respectively), we request pan-Arctic Outlooks. Later in the season (early August), while updates to pan-Arctic Outlooks will be welcome, we will primarily focus on regional forecasts. However, contributions for pan-Arctic and regional will be accepted during all periods.
We will also post a separate announcement calling for participants in a SIPN Action Team to work with us to further develop and steer the details of SIO reports as the season develops.
We encourage all past contributors to submit Outlooks this year and we also hope to see new participants.
==================================================================
The contest is to forecast the September monthly average Arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers).
For a primer, see the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page
This year, a model forecast from NOAA CFSv2 says that we might see something well above 6.0 million square kilometers:
Source: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif
If they are right, that line from September to October would put the average somewhere around 8 million, with a minimum of about 6.7 and much earlier. I find that a bit hard to believe, since it would be a return to minimum sea ice values of the 1980’s:
Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center (NERSC) – Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System (ROOS) – Click the pic to view at source
OTOH, Arctic temperature is running below normal:
Arctic Temperature:
Mean Temperature above 80°N
Danish Meteorological Institute – Click the pic to view at source
So since the possible range this year is so wide, I’m limiting the poll to increments of 250,000 sq Km instead of the 100,000 used in previous years. Otherwise I’ll exceed the maximum number of poll questions.
POLL CLOSED AS DEADLINE IS TODAY
As I did last year, I will submit the weighted average value of the top 5 vote-getters.
UPDATE: The poll closed as we have the deadline looming, and here are the results of the weighted average, which totals over 50 percent of the votes:
A value of 6.12 million sq km will be sent to ARCUS.
Tool: http://handymath.com/cgi-bin/wghtedavg4.cgi
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dbstealey says
“The only reason polar ice is discussed is because of the endless predictions that Arctic ice would soon disappear. The alarmist crowd is desperately hoping that it does. But so what if it does? It’s all good… and it’s all natural.”
Mmm .. so no worries if there is no Arctic sea ice then ? No concerns about the temperature jump that would cause in the Arctic leading to more rapid melting of the Greenland ice mass and other land based ice sheets in the north ?
People living in London, New York and many other coastal/estuary based cities might disagree.
James Abbott says:
Mmm .. so no worries if there is no Arctic sea ice then ? No concerns about the temperature jump that would cause in the Arctic leading to more rapid melting of the Greenland ice mass and other land based ice sheets in the north ?
No worries. But if you want to worry about that fake scare, go right ahead. It is amusing to rational folks.
Joseph Bastardi says:
June 10, 2014 at 8:49 am
Thanks for the Gray paper pdf, I see why you are enthusiastic about his work, and agree fully that deep ocean circulation is the key to climate at all timescales decadal and above. The literature of modelling of deep ocean circulation, the bipolar seesaw etc. seems to be much more meaningful than that of the atmosphere.
I went with 6.25 million. I think the minimum extent will continue to rebound, but at a much lower rate since the new ice cover is reducing the outgoing IR from formerly open water. I’m also guessing that we won’t get any storms causing the ice to run pell mell out of the Arctic.
Last night I saw Springwatch on the BBC. They talked to eel fishermen from near Bristol who said that this year has seen an extraordinary jump in the abundance of elvers returning from the Sargasso sea. The numbers are some 30x higher than over the last decade, during which they were in serious decline. One of them speculated that it was due to a shift in the pattern of the gulf stream. He could well be right; if he is, this could represent the overturning of the AMO and also the start of a phase of Arctic ice recovery.
If you’re skeptical that the AMO is closely linked to Arctic ice, check out the first graph in this WUWT thread showing data from Levitus on the correlation between Barents Sea water temperatures and the AMO over the last century:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/08/new-paper-barents-sea-temperature-correlated-to-the-amo-as-much-as-4%C2%B0c/
June feels a lot cooler here in central Virginia than it used to…so I’m going with more ice: 7.75 MsqKM. “Today, I go for the gusto.”
rip
Because the real concern is “global” warming (or its absence), perhaps in the future the predictions ought to be threefold:
1. Arctic Sea Ice Minimum
2. Antarctic Sea Ice Maximum
3. Global Sea Ice Anomaly (against baseline of 1979-2014, or whatever is practical)
FergalR says:
June 10, 2014 at 9:26 am
Oldseadog;
Triple distilled Irish Whiskey is far superior to the Scots’ peat-soaked crud as you well know.
I was in Galway recently and discovered Paddys, truly a world class Irish whiskey. But the best Scottish malts deserve their global reputation also.
From the article: “The contest is to forecast the September monthly average Arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers).”
Seems some may be predicting the Minimum, vs the 6.75 mm sq kms.
The contest is for the Sept average, which is an amount above the minimum. That’s why the article mentions the NOAA number may be around 8 mm sq kms. Note in the bottom graph from NOAA, the Sept beginning number is about 7 mm and the Sept end number is about 9 mm. That’s the reason for the AVERAGE in Sept comment about 8 million. That would put the Sept Avg result near the 1980s, per the Red Line at the bottom of the trend chart.
Probably no way to go back and change votes now, but it appears that some are predicting the low, not the Sept average. They are not providing the number the forecast contest has asked them to generate… if I am reading it correctly.
Any clarifications are welcome.
Jim Hunt says:
June 10, 2014 at 9:32 am………?
Mr. Hunt thinks people aren’t aware of the tactics. If sea ice extent increases Warmists focus on volume. If volume increases they look somewhere else. 😉 They pretend that they were never concerned about extent yet forget their ice-free screaming over the years. It really is that bad.
Ben is right. I at least have placed my bet as if it were for the minimum. I would add 0.5M to make it the September average.
TheLastDemocrat says:
June 10, 2014 at 7:21 am
”None! You all can laugh at me now. But we will see who is laughing when I kayak ALL the way to the REAL North Pole in September. Whiskey or no, this is a GO!”
Is this how the Last Democrat comes about?
I went for 6.25. The 2m+ ice is about 7.5km^2 and in a normal year we basically lose 1m – 1.5m thick ice. There is even a small blob of ice on the SW shore of Lake Superior – surely a record in the satellite era
http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/sea-ice-page/great-lakes-ice-page/
and Hudson’s Bay still is covered and has some 3m ice on the west shore. The NW passage has some extensive 4m ice – no sailing this year and the DMI north of 80 temp is substantially below normal. I note the extent graphs are showing the curve bending up and close to crossing the last year’s line. We should close in on the climatology avg line after the steeper dip (skipping rope sag) after the end of June, cross it by the end of July and get into positive territory as. The thinning 2m+ ice starts should hold out as melting slows through mid August and levels off in mid September.
An August storm would undo the forecast of course but I think this is unlikely in a cooling arctic.
https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-extent
REPLY:IMHO, any graph that uses “death spiral” as part of the description should be ignored – Anthony
My forecast is that both Harrabin and Shukman will not be reporting from an ICE FREE North Pole this year.
My guess is 5.5: That is the highest Sept Avg number since 2006 Per this data.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv
My opinion is that we are now in a slow annual increase in Min ice cover over the next several years. Of course there will be large variations similar to the past 12 years.
I have been collecting this data daily for the past 5 years I have the file for all old data thru Dec 31 2013. On 1 Jan 2014 there was an interruption in the daily data; then all the daily data was again posted thru Jan 15th 2014 on that date. The new file daily data for Sept 2013 was all adjusted to smaller numbers by about 200K to 275K sq Km. The March daily data was adjusted down in the range of 194K to 348K sq Km.. All of the daily data for all years was adjusted down.
Joseph Bastardi says:
June 10, 2014 at 8:49 am
Lets remember that anything this year near normal is a huge win for those that have been preaching for years ( well before I) that its the AMO that is the major driver of arctic ice extent.
====
I agree….sick and tired of all the PDPDOPDO crap….like it’s the only water that does anything
So far this year we’ve seen a slightly above average amount of sea ice exiting through the Fram Strait. (I call it the Arctic Strait Flush.) Last year was shockingly light in this regard and I suspect the main factor in the increase in the minimum sea ice extent.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim365d.gif
5.75
Several months ago I had forecast the sea ice to come close to 6.0. That left me with a tough choice between 5.75 and 6.0. I went with 5.75. Although Arctic temperature is starting to look like it will set a new below average record for this year.
I cast my vote for 4.25 though I think it will be just slightly higher than that. There is likely to be another Polar Vortex this winter setteling deep cold over much of North America. However, this years vortex will be coupled with a moderate El-Nino that will bring increased winter precipitation (snow) that will cover an area greater than 80% of the lower 48 states and break many long standing records.
Most snow in a single storm
Deepest cover in a single season
Largest area covered by snow (all 50 states with snow though not 100% coverage)
This of course will be held up by Climate Scientists to the media as an example of the extremes brought about by Climate Change
A side vote on insurance rate for shipping in the much-vaunted Northwest Passage, ice-free Arctic is also in order.
“REPLY:IMHO, any graph that uses “death spiral” as part of the description should be ignored – Anthony”
True. But that not the chart folks need to look at.
The chart that is interesting is the one that takes the current conditions and stitches the historical data to the end.
So you see what the spread of history is and the boundary of past experience.
here.
This is the chart.
it is the third on the page.
But interesting reaction. Instead of looking at everything, some people stop at the first thing
they find objectionable.
one of the lessons behind making cryptic comments is this.
people choose to see what they want to see.
we all do. thats good to know
http://iwantsomeproof.com/extimg/sie_projections_from_current_date.png
REPLY: The real lesson here is for you to learn to stop making incomplete crypto-comments and expecting other people to know what the heck you are talking about. Why haven’t you learned this yet. C’mon Steve you are a smart guy, start acting like one when you leave comments. – Anthony
Joseph,
The autocorrect on your computer may be one problem for you – but seems to me some people like to “autocorrect” your climate statements as well. (SARC if I have to) Anyway, I enjoy your comments and the rest of you who are true climate observers (as opposed to scientists).
Mike
The chart that is interesting is the one that takes the current conditions and stitches the historical data to the end……and that sums up global warming science in a nut shell…..extending trends
Ben says:
June 10, 2014 at 10:34 am
Thanks for catching that. My estimates were based upon the Daily not the Monthly records. For the last 7 years, the Sept. Extents and Daily Min were:
Year Sept Daily Min
2013 5.35 5.08
2012 3.63 3.37
2011 4.63 4.33
2010 4.93 4.60
2009 5.39 5.05
2008 4.73 4.58
2007 4.3 4.16
So the Sept. Average is about 0.255 higher.
Base on my previous analysis of taking the melt % from the March max, I estimate a range of Sept. minimums for 2014:
High 5.14
Medium 4.54
Low 3.29