by Norm Buske
Although I am a long-time, casual skeptic of global warming, I agree that evidence of severe, largely anthropogenic warming of the Northern Thermal Hemisphere (NTH) is compelling. The warming of the NTH explains progressive loss of Arctic sea ice.
Meanwhile, the average temperature of the planet surface has evidently stabilized for the last dozen years or so:
[in: http://www.climate4you.com/Text/Climate4you_Year_2013.pdf ]
(Thick line is simple 3-year running average. Average of 1979-88 decade is set to zero.)
Therefore, global warming has evidently ceased, at least for now, because the Southern Thermal Hemisphere (STH) has entered a cooling phase, compensating for the anthropogenic warming of the NTH.
After an artifactual step change (in December 1991) in the NSIDC satellite record of the extent of Antarctic sea ice has been removed from the data, a recent increase in the extent Antarctic sea ice is evident:
[http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/adj_anom.jpeg]
[in: http://tamino.wordpress.com/2014/02/04/antarctic-sea-ice-increase/]
(Red curve is LOWESS smooth.)
William of Ockham might explain this increase of Antarctic sea ice extent as an effect of the STH having cooled, just as the loss of Arctic sea ice has been explained as an effect of the NTH having warmed.
Anthropogenic sources (of warming) are concentrated in the NTH, with fewer sources in the STH. So there is a prospect that the recent cooling of the STH is not anthropogenic. Or the thermal hemispheres might be coupled such that the warming of the NTH is becoming compensated by cooling of the STH.
–Here is a challenge for proponents of global warming: Show how anthropogenic warming of the NTH leads to cooling of the STH, or else allow that the cooling of the STH is practically independent.
I do believe the purpose of this post is so we can see the other side flounder about. Thank you for the humor. This casual septic agrees with the evidence of severe anthropogenic warming, which is somehow having a cooling effect.
So far, Norm Buske has not responded to any comments. I, too, would like for Norm to present the “compelling” evidence of Anthropogenic warming. I have been looking for this for years and have not fopund this. So if he could enlighten me, I would be greatful.
By the way, do not cite the warming of the Arctic as evidence. This warming is due to warmer SST which is not due to any enhanced “greenhouse effect”. For confirmation, see the laws of radiation physics, with particular attention to the opacity of water to IR.
Robert Brown says:
June 6, 2014 at 5:57 am
Excellent, as usual.
Consider also that Dr. Phil “adjusts” the sea record to accord with the land, thereby in effect extending the UHI induced man-made heating artifact to the other 70% of earth’s surface. When coupled with the fraudulent UHI adjustments which make readings warmer rather than cooler, most if not all of the “observed” warming in the 20th century (lacking so far in this century) can be explained.
DayHay said on June 6, 2014 at 6:51 am:
Okay…
You took this chart:
http://www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/File:Holocene_Temperature_Variations_Rev_png
You dropped a straight line over the wriggly average of the 8 reconstructions, from about the end of the initial warm-up to present,
Then added straight lines on nearly all of the leading edges of the squiggles, to show where the temps moved upwards over centuries.
…
What’s to explain? The temperature normally wriggles a few hundredths of a °C over a few hundred years. They have been saying the current increase was much more over a much shorter time, thus not natural.
What you should note is all those proxies showing higher temperatures than today where somehow life survived without air conditioning. Looks like all but one said temps were significantly higher for centuries, with the outlier examining European pollen.
Admad says:
June 6, 2014 at 12:26 am
OK, don’t want to trigger a firestorm here – is the implication from Mr Buske that maybe UHI heat propagation/leaching out into the environment is the cause of the NTH warming? That’s what I infer. Is this even feasible? I wouldn’t have thought that a UHI footprint could be big enough to cause any measurable hemispherical effect.
Well not causing hemispherical warming, but warming of the thermometers. I think the majority of the thermometers in the database are influenced by UHI – see Watts et al 2012 – unadjusted thermometers show huge differences between a selected certified group of stations in comparison to the rest.
There is a recent study that confirms everything this guys says with 100% accuracy! To replicate the study at home, place a beverage on a hot plate and turn on the heat. You’ll notice as the bottom warms up, the top cools off until the bottom is boiling and the top is covered with 1-2″ of ice. …and now you understand how this all works. Wild conjecture, rapid hand-waving, wild-eyed crazy looks, followed by “Trust me, I’m Bill Nye the science guy!”
His memory may appear to be faulty but not mine.
Quick view
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/07/31/arctic-ice-growth-since-1971/
Sea ice extent anomaly 1970 to 1990, IPCC 1990 – First Assessment Report
[PDF – 29MB]
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf
Evidence just in. Soot and warm weather was key to melting Greenland ice in 2012.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/06/06/study-greenlands-july-2012-insta-melt-was-triggered-by-a-combination-of-warm-weather-and-carbon-soot/#comment-1655729
http://www.pnas.org/content/111/22/7964.figures-only
By severe warming you mean warming so minute that it can only be witnessed on temperature anomaly plots scaled in tenths of a degree?
The elephant in the room that very few want to discuss – impacts of the steep rise of energy flux at / near the surface. Due to everything having to do with electricity, climate controlled structures and enclosures, motors, electro-magnetic transmissions and inadvertent emissions, etc, etc, etc. Yep, 7B people and quite a large fraction of them facilitating all this energy flux. And it is not limited to urban zones. Anywhere there are people and things installed or run by people (or which run themselves due to being programmed by people) this additional energy flux exists.
Jimbo says:
June 6, 2014 at 8:46 am
Phil. says:
June 6, 2014 at 7:54 am
Your memory appears to be faulty:
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/fig2-14.htm
His memory may appear to be faulty but not mine.
Quick view
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2013/07/31/arctic-ice-growth-since-1971/
Seriously, consider the source! Did you ever consider why Goddard produced a map at such low magnification that you can’t read the text? Hint it doesn’t show what he would like you to think it does!
Phil. says:
June 6, 2014 at 9:54 am
Hint…
====
You can click on the map…open it in another window…and magnify it as large as you want
Phil,
You should have looked further down the page I showed you from Goddard. The image is now linked directly. I was saving you from having to download 29MB. I will still try to save you from having to download 29MB – the following image is from the IPCC FAR. It shows a low extent in the early 1970s.
http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/screenhunter_170-jun-15-11-10.jpg
Sourced from:
Sea ice extent anomaly 1970 to 1990, IPCC – First Assessment Report
[PDF – 29MB]
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf
Fortunately for this paper the peer review has occurred after it was published in WUWT, otherwise it would have never been published.
We simply do not at present understand
the Global Climate system.
So what happened to the 30 years of data from 1850 to 1880 ??
Eric Sincere says:
June 6, 2014 at 8:39 am
There is a recent study that confirms everything this guys says with 100% accuracy! To replicate the study at home, place a beverage on a hot plate and turn on the heat. You’ll notice as the bottom warms up, the top cools off until the bottom is boiling and the top is covered with 1-2″ of ice. …and now you understand how this all works. Wild conjecture, rapid hand-waving, wild-eyed crazy looks, followed by “Trust me, I’m Bill Nye the science guy!”
____________________
Eric,
I’m a bit disappointed that you didn’t mention that on a global scale, the opposite effect exists. i.e., heat rises, so obviously as heat flows northward, the Arctic warms and Antarctica cools, having lost its heat upwards to the North Pole.
Arctic ice seems to be coming back. It certainly hasn’t worsened in recent years. NOAA’s prediction for this year is for summer minimum Arctic ice to be a positive anomaly. Looking at the 2m+ ice covering about 6 million km^2 at present suggests they should be right. Then the temp doesn’t look so Anthropo in the NH. Most skeptics accept 0.7C per century with Anthropo half or less of this and the rest natural recovery from the LIA. The rest of the anomaly is basically record fiddling of several tenths of C, poor recording and the like.
Once Obama destroys the USA, Man Made Global warming will disappear…. 😉 Get it?
Heat rises hence the top or northern part of the globe warms more.
/sarc
Rob says:
June 6, 2014 at 11:06 am
We simply do not at present understand
the Global Climate system.
________________________
“The debate is settled. Climate change is a fact.”
POTUS, SOTU Address, Jan, 2014
Perhaps his Friday is a bit hectic?
Twice now you’ve linked to the THIRD assessment report. However, the original quote …
… referenced the FIRST assessment report, which (thanks to Jimbo’s link) shows on page 224 (around 272 including the unnumbered pages) that jmrsudbury did NOT have a faulty memory. Either you are deliberately building a straw man, or you’re having trouble counting to three.
The figure in the THIRD report cuts out the inconvenient rise in Arctic sea ice from 1975 to 1980, which makes it a bald -faced lie in and of itself. Does anyone wonder why people are skeptical of a ‘scientific’ claim that is backed up by the need for such obvious manipulations of the data?
Latitude says:
June 6, 2014 at 10:16 am
Phil. says:
June 6, 2014 at 9:54 am
Hint…
====
You can click on the map…open it in another window…and magnify it as large as you want
Indeed you can as I did. If you do so you’ll find that what Goddard claimed was sea ice was in fact multiyear ice, a different matter altogether and yet another ‘misleading’ Goddard post!
Jimbo says:
June 6, 2014 at 10:18 am
Phil,
You should have looked further down the page I showed you from Goddard. The image is now linked directly. I was saving you from having to download 29MB. I will still try to save you from having to download 29MB – the following image is from the IPCC FAR. It shows a low extent in the early 1970s.
Apparently you missed the point about the map?
Also despite saving me loading all those MB it’s worthless without the legend.
This is a satire isn’t it? A parody, or what is known as a Poe http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Poe's_Law.
Or were we meant to take it seriously?