Dr. Indur Goklany writes:
Earlier today on WUWT in the post, UHI and Heat Related Mortality, a researcher from Arizona claims that, “Extreme heat is the leading weather-related killer in the United States.” I am afraid that this piece of nonsense is about to become conventional wisdom. However, this is based on cherry-picking one’s data source. The full story is given in the attached paper written in 2011.
Which is responsible for more U.S. deaths — Excessive Heat or Excessive Cold?
by Indur M. Goklany
The USGCRP Synthesis Report states that data on 19,958 deaths from weather related extreme events from 1970 to 2004 for the US indicates that heat/drought is responsible for the largest share (19.6%), followed by severe weather, defined to include fog, hail, wind and thunderstorm (18.8%) and winter weather (18.1%). This information is sourced to Borden and Cutter (2008), henceforth B&C. [Note that these estimates exclude deaths from excess winter mortality, which is a chronic phenomenon unrelated to extreme weather. Also, note that it’s not just global warming, but also the heat island effect that may contribute to excessive deaths in warm weathers.]
In contrast to B&C, other researchers have identified deaths from excessive cold as the single largest cause with twice as many dying from excessive cold as excessive heat (e.g., Deschenes and Moretti, 2009; Thacker et al., 2008; Goklany, 2007, 2009; Goklany and Straja 2000).
What accounts for this discrepancy?
As acknowledged by B&C (p. 10 of 13), it depends on data source as well as how the events are grouped. B&C used the Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS; available at www.sheldus.org) which is derived primarily from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) monthly Storm Data publications, while the other publications use death certificate data maintained by the Center for Disease Control (CDC) in the Compressed Mortality File. In the US, death certificates must be accompanied by a medical certificate of death signed by the attending physician at time of death. As such, the CDC’s Compressed Mortality File is the best source for the cause of death.
B&C justify their choice on the basis that “unlike Storm Data (upon which SHELDUS is based), the Compressed Mortality File is not solely focused on natural hazard events. Although both SHELDUS and the Compressed Mortality File likely suffer from undercounting hazard related deaths [4,39], it is known that the only reason any of the deaths appear in Storm Data (and SHELDUS) is because of some natural event. In the CDC’s Compressed Mortality File, deaths are interpreted from classifying the underlying cause listed on death certificates [4], whereas SHELDUS mortality is derived from Storm Data.” It also notes that the coding system used by the CDC was revised after 1998.
Neither of these reasons is compelling. First, Storm Data procedures were also changed in the 1990s (B&C, p. 3; Dixon et al., p. 939). More importantly, studies that have attempted to verify numbers from Storm Data or the Annual Summaries based on Storm Data, find that they substantially underestimate deaths (e.g., Ashley and Gilson, 2009; Goklany, 1999, 2007). To quote Dixon et al. (2005): “weather-related catastrophic ‘group kills’ rather than ‘individual kills’ are more likely to be included in Storm Data. Therefore, this may tend to give more complete numbers for weather-related categories, such as tornadoes, hurricanes, or heat waves, than for deaths from winter cold, and the multiple categories for excessive cold deaths can also introduce an underreporting of cold deaths.” They also observe that, “The CDC NCHS’s Compressed Mortality Database is, in general, a more comprehensive database. As such, it would more likely include weather-related ‘single kills’ than would Storm Data.”
This observation is critical because it is possible to have people die from excessive cold even in the midst of a “normal” winter because of exposure to elements as an unintended consequence of intended or unintended actions (e.g., taking a walk in the cold or through loss of heating, for whatever reason).
Dixon et al. also add that, “However, the Compressed Mortality Database is limited by the medical personnel’s actual determination of the ‘weather relatedness’ of death, and the database often runs years behind current events.” Regarding the first part of this argument, one should note that determining the cause of death requires medical expertise rather than meteorological expertise such as the NCDC possesses. With respect to the second part, one must respond that in a scientific exercise, speed of reporting cannot take precedence over the accuracy or completeness of data.
Finally, although NCDC is a part of NOAA, the data it provides (based on Storm Data) is sometimes at odds with data from other parts of NCDC. For example, its data on deaths from floods is different from that of the Hydrological Information Center (HIC), the group within NOAA charged with keeping data on flood deaths. And the compilers of the Storm Data-derived Annual Summaries, themselves have in the past suggested using the HIC compilation (Goklany, 1999, footnote 38, pp. 337-338; 2007, footnote 214, p. 457, 2009, pp. 105-106).
For all these reasons, it is more appropriate to use the CDC’s Compressed Mortality Database for deaths from excessive heat and cold. And this database indicates that on average twice as many people die from excessive cold than excessive heat.
Additional References
Ashley,W.S., and Gilson, C.W. 2009. A Reassessment of U.S. lightning mortality. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi: 10.1175/2009BAMS2765.1.
Borden, K.A., and Cutter, S.L. 2008. Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States. International Journal of Health Geographics, doi:10.1186/1476-072X-7-64.
Deschenes, O., Moretti, E. 2009. Extreme Weather Events, Mortality and Migration. Review of Economics and Statistics 91(4): 659–681.
Dixon, P.G., Brommer, D.M., Hedquist, B.C., Kalkstein, A.J., Goodrich, G.B., Walter, J.C., Dickerson, C.C., Penny, S.J., and Cerveny, R.S.. 2005: Heat mortality versus cold mortality: A study of conflicting databases in the United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 937–943.
Goklany, I.M. 1999. Richer is More Resilient: Dealing With Climate Change and More Urgent Environmental Problems. In: Bailey, R., ed. Earth Report 2000, Revisiting the True State of the Planet. New York, NY: McGraw-Hill, pp. 155-187.
Goklany, I.M. 2007. The Improving State of the World: Why We’re Living Longer, Healthier, More Comfortable Lives on a Cleaner Planet. Washington, DC: Cato Institute: 167.
Goklany, I.M. 2009. Deaths and Death Rates from Extreme Weather Events: 1900-2008. Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 14 (4): 102-09.
Goklany, I.M., and Straja, S.R. 2000. “U.S. Death Rates due to Extreme Heat and Cold Ascribed to Weather, 1979-1997.” Technology 7S: 165-173.
Thacker, M.T.F., Lee, R., Sabogal, R.I., and Henderson, A. 2008. Overview of deaths associated with natural events, United States, 1979–2004. Disasters 2008, 32(2):303-315.
US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). 2009. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press.
2 June: KTHV: 6 surprising ways weather predicts health
1. Heart attack – In 2012 one U-S study found an 18 percent increase in heart attack deaths in winter and a 10 to 12 percent decrease in summer. Cold weather may constrict blood vessels or lead to more blood clots…
http://www.thv11.com/story/news/local/thv-this-morning/2014/06/02/6-surprising-ways-weather-predicts-health/9858785/
I rather agree that cold is by far more deadly than heat. But I have to make this observation also:
The best defense against both is exactly the same. A reliable, cost effective energy supply.
John Slayton says:
June 2, 2014 at 9:47 pm
John, I read the NYT article. Nowhere in it is any cause of death given for the “immigrants,” nor is there any mention of water.
Therefore, I must conclude that you just assumedthat those who perished had enough water. My assumption, by contrast, is that they did not have enough water, which is the most probable cause of death in a hot desert.
~
I’ve lived in very hot places, and very cold ones. I agree completely with what
Mark Luhman says:
June 2, 2014 at 9:01 pm
Which causes more deaths, hot or cold? Who cares. I mean, seriously, what a stupid and utterly pointless debate.
11 May: Observer-Report, Pennsylvania: Winter weather delays plants, crops
Several local greenhouses and nurseries said the harsh winter weather – mainly the long, deep freezes – resulted in the delay or damage of their products. As a result, some places had a minimal amount of products to sell for Mother’s Day…
At Joseph’s Nursery and Garden Center in Monessen, co-owner Michael Joseph said anything not grown in a greenhouse took a hit.
“What was in the fields, the deer did a lot of damage to the plants,” he said. “All the buds on the zinnias and rhododendrons, the deer spoiled. The groundhogs ate all the bark off the trees, as well.”
After 60-some years in business, Joseph said this was the first time wildlife had such an impact…
“It didn’t kill them,” he said. “But it did set them back. There won’t be any buds or flowers this year.”
Joseph said this past winter was difficult on everybody.
“I can’t remember when we had a winter that lasted so long. The snow stayed on so long that it froze things from the stem. Everything is going to be late coming out.”…
JoAnn Andrews, owner of Silver Creek Nursery, in McDonald said ground cover was especially affected this year. Andrews said she specializes in ground cover and never witnessed ivy “do what it did this year.
“I have ivy in my greenhouse that isn’t doing a thing. It’s just sitting there,” Andrews said. “And in people’s yards, it just burned out.”…
At Simmons Farm in McMurray, this year’s peach crop froze.
Co-owner Scott Simmons said there were “just too many days below minus-5 degrees.”
“The cold kills the buds,” he said. “But the trees are alive.”…
The weather also affected Simmons’ strawberry crop. Simmons said the berries are normally ready around May 25, the first week of June at the latest.
“I don’t think we’ll see any until June 10. Everything is behind in its normal schedule.”
That includes items grown in their greenhouses. Simmons said the annuals, perennials and hanging baskets are about “10 days behind.”
And it’s already taking a toll on business…
http://www.observer-reporter.com/article/20140511/NEWS01/140519914
TBear says:
June 2, 2014 at 10:35 pm
Your fatuous comment does not really deserve a serious response.
Nevetheless:
It’s only stupid and utterly pointless to those who have no curiosity, who were never Boy Scouts, who’ve never come close to freezing to death, and who have not a lick of common sense.
Boy Scout motto: Be prepared!
–sp (almost froze to death in -65F wind chill, rode bicycle in 115-120F heat on several occasions, maybe even tomorrow)
Seems we have two data sources, one based on events, one based on the general background situation.
Isnt that the definition of weather vs climate ?
I don’t anticipate making any more of it than the warmers, whose rhetoric is suddenly heating up ahead of Obama’s Cap and Trade push, and will escalate still further heading into the November elections when we can (hopefully) trow de bums out!
Unfortunately their awful policies will outlive their political careers, and that’s why I’m interested in the rationale they employ to promote those policies. Elevated numbers of heat-related deaths is one of the justifications they posit for ramming expensive energy legislation down our throats. It will be expensive and counterproductive.
Indur Goklany: Thanks for the post. I was hoping we’d hear from you on this topic. Have you seen any “excess mortality” data on the 2014 winter?
Jimbo,
I hate to be a pain but I don’t suppose you have a list on this subject??
A
Steve P:
Therefore, I must conclude that you just assumedthat those who perished had enough water. My assumption, by contrast, is that they did not have enough water, which is the most probable cause of death in a hot desert.
Actually, my assumption is the same as yours, that people unused to the extremes of southern Arizona desert did not bring enough water. One could argue for dehydration as the cause of death. But if you follow the general discussion, both on the internet and in the print media, I think you will find that extreme temperatures are widely cited as causal. The NYT article is clearly a case in point; look again at the section I put in bold type.
So my original question to Dr. Goklany remains. Are these deaths included in either of the data compilations he discusses as caused by weather? If so, how do they skew the results?
Even IF they proved beyond doubt that heat kills more people in the US than cold – so what? What does that tell me about global warming? Remove all triple and double glazing in Scandinavia and let me know the new death rate? Remove all air-conditioners from homes in Arizona and let me know the new death rate? Do it worldwide and let me know the results on death rates. Cold will kill more people than heat. Period.
Homo Sapiens are tropical animals.
Here is the quote you need to understand.
excessive heat definitely kills. But, the answer is more energy, not less.
Wiki claims:
National Geographic claims:
This is the general area they found ‘Lucy’. Other references say it is one of the hottest inhabited places on Earth. Maybe it was freezing cold in Lucy’s time. 🙂
The claim about cold V heat deaths is propaganda and deflection. Look at poverty metrics and UHI instead.
Streetcred
Ah Ha! Eric, that accounts for all of those strange people up Maryborough way in summer 😉
That, and the fact it is Maryborough… 🙂
” If you have reached the autumn of your years, watch out for winter! For reasons which are not wholly clear, from age 70 the odds of death in January or February are much higher than in the rest of the year. ”
http://sciencenordic.com/winter-can-be-ultimate-chill-out
” Countries with relatively warm
or moderate climate like Spain, Portugal, and Italy or the UK and Ireland
experience much larger excess winter mortality than countries with harsh
climatic conditions during winter such as Finland and Norway. ”
http://www.demogr.mpg.de/books/drm/003/2.pdf
Swedish mortality rate 2013:
Highest in January: 8 789
Lowest in June: 6 836
Swedish statistics ( only in swedish ):
http://www.scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Artiklar/Dodsfallen-fler-under-vintermanaderna/
Some great facts posted above. It is true that winter is tough on circulation and death rates from heart attack and stroke spike: http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/160/5/492/F1.large.jpg
Another thing to consider is about 500 deaths a year (US) from faulty heating equipment according to the National Fire Protection Association.
Since Warmists want to trumpet up heat deaths then please supply free air-conditioners to some of the poorest families in America. Also ensure that their energy costs are kept as low as possible. We must act now? Also disconnect heat supplies to wealthy residents in New York, Washington and Chicago, this is because the US the hottest evaaaaaaaaaaaah!
There should be an immediate halt for Scandinavians who stupidly and willingly visit the country called Kenya each year. The darn place is on the equator. We must act now to save the lives of naive Scandinavians visiting the Masai Mara National Reserve. We must ban the taking of saunas too.
Climate shock? Acclimatization? What is the story?
Warmists must realise they are riding on a pack of lies, distortions and propaganda.
So as I go north from the equator to the pole, do i see life becoming scarcer and harder or the opposite?
Do I need a big grant to work that one out?
Off topic but not.
The biggest killer in the USA is the EPA.
In June 1972, Ruckelshaus, new head of EPA, banned DDT as a carcinogen. IT WASN’T.
He never bothered to read the Sweeny Committee report, published 2 months earlier, which concluded that DDT was not a carcinogenic hazard to man.
Actually, it was so safe people could eat it, & did so for 2 years in one experiment.
What DDT was, was a safe, cheap, out of patent anti-malarial agent.
Deaths Worldwide from malaria were down to ~ 50,000 pa.
After the ban, deaths increased to ~ 2 million pa.
That’s around 80 million deaths. More than Hitler killed. More than Mao killed. More than Stalin killed.
A final ironic cherry on this murderous cake?
DDT was never banned.
Rulers in the Third World were told : ” Keep ordering DDT, you get no more foreign aid”
Bribes to Third World rulers to stand by & watch their people slaughtered = Foreign Aid.
It’s the same, here in the UK.
That this planet is overcrowded is one of the pernicious myths we are ruled by.
http://www.drtimball.com & put overpopulation in his search box.
Try: http://www.overpopulationisamyth.com
Try: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kVeA07d2F_I
A 7 minute video.
OR, put 5 billion human beings to be murdered — New World…
into the youtube search box.
People no longer have families of 10 to look after their old age if they feel safe with a few quid of their own.
Prosperity is the best contraceptive.
The IMF & World Bank are on a mission to spread “Austerity”.
‘Nuff said.
Then look into Chemtrails:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v-zRREd8DZQ
OR: put Pilots must learn about Geoengineering and chemtrails, present…
1 hr 24 mins presentation by David Lim, a smart young University of Reading scientist.
The fruits of years of research.
My references for DDT?
1) Michael Crichton’s best selling novel: State of Fear.
2) Wildavsky, Aaron. But is it True? A Citizens Guide to Environmental Health and Safety Issues,
Cambridge: Harvard University Press. 1994 or 95.
25 pages on DDT, plus sections on Alar, Love Canal, Asbestos, The Ozone Hole, Global Warming & Acid Rain.
Wildavsky concludes that nearly all environmental claims have been either untrue or wildly overstated. Buy 10 copies of each & give 9 away.
The whole “Environmentalist” movement has been hijacked by control freak coward, chicken shit little “The Sky is Falling”, murderous dolts of Ehrlichers, aided & abetted by our politicians, institutions, such as EPA, & of course, the 1%sBanksters.
http://www.cfact.org/2014/05/14/big-greens-untold-billions/
Mods, you may edit this as you please. 🙂
Until CAGW became such a chic cause, the generally accepted fact was that cold resulted in more deaths. So we can add another thing AGW causes – bad statistics.
Keatinge e.a. show that the heat mortality in several European cities is only 1/10th of cold related moratlity:
http://www.bmj.com/content/321/7262/670
Moreover, after increased mortality during heat waves, there is less mortality in the following months, which points to mortality of people who would decease anyway a few weeks or months later. Not so during and after cold waves and related mortality…
From Curriero e.a.:
Heat and cold mortality in 11 USA cities:
http://aje.oxfordjournals.org/content/155/1/80.full.pdf+html
As some have stated, people are surprisingly heat tolerant. All we need is water — drink, dunk your head or shirt in water, etc, to keep cool. My cats are tough, but suffer during heat (ditto for dogs or most other animals) — it’s one thing that I can tolerate much better than them.
I live in the north. I love the snow and ice. When I first traveled south (a reptile hunting expedition, not killing just observing) on a trip to florida with my father at the age 12, I was amazed at the places people lived in. I couldn’t understand how people could survive without front doors or thick walls. People’s homes looked like shacks to me. Someplace we would store a snowblower, but not enough protection from the elements to live in. During the northern winters everything is close to death. Some predators do well since weak game is abundant. But, if winter persisted, almost eveything would die. If loggers cut-over a deer yard (an area suitable for deer to survive for winter), there are almost no deer in the area for the following decades. When everything is frozen, it is like a dessert. You are in danger of starving to death, freezing to death, and even though you are surounded by water dieing of dehydration. I love the snow and ice because it is a true battle against mother nature, surviving the elments. No hard science here, just a northerner’s amusment at people fearing warmer weather.
Is it actually possible to heat air to a point where contact between that air and (normal healthy, properly hydrated) humans is fatal? If so, does such superheated air ever occur naturally?
I know contact with cold air can kill at certain natural but very low temperatures.
How hard is it to see the difference? Cold is the enemy. Heat is our friend.
I actually lived a few years in north India where there is a legendary wind called ‘The Loo’ which ‘burns out your eardrums on contact’. I think that was hyperbole. I lived there through the summer and monsoon with no aircon, and frequent power cuts so no fan. 30 years ago when it was much poorer and a Soviet client. I loved it and I keep going back for the warmth.