Eric Worrall writes:
The volcano Mount Sangeang Api in the Lesser Sunda Islands has just erupted, sending a huge ash cloud 12 miles into the air.
Wikipedia describes Sangeang Api as a volcano complex with 2 active cones, Doro Api 1,949 metres (6,394 ft) and Doro Mantoi. 1,795 m (5,889 ft). Indonesia has a number of very active volcanoes, including volcanoes which threaten major cities, such as the infamous Mount Merapi.
Merapi, which has erupted several times in the last decade, is located just 17 miles from the city of Yogyakarta, home of 2.5 million people.
Near equatorial volcanoes like Sangeang Api are useful to global warming modellers, as the ash cloud can usually be detected in both hemispheres. They provide a convenient excuse for the short term cooling of the entire Earth.
Some spectacular pictures in the following link:-
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All the major volcanic eruptions are correlated with important variations in solar activity (variations in the interplanetary magnetic field). In the last two weeks, the solar activity has collapsed.
It’s a solar max, disguise in the a solar minimum. Deep solar minimum = great geophysical event
http://michelecasati.altervista.org/index.html
Definitely looks to be hitting tropopause: classic anvil spreading
http://www.wired.com/2014/05/explosive-eruption-at-sangeang-api-in-indonesia/
http://volcanocafe.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/so2-h2so4-e-folding-bluthjg.png
GeoLurking says:
May 30, 2014 at 10:58 pm
Sorry, “two to three months.”
=========
Thanks, useful graph.
If the time-const is just under three months you would usually say it has ‘gone’ after 5 time-constants, not one. (depending upon what proportion of peak level is defined as “gone”).
Arno Arrak says: “Bob, you really do not understand the ENSO system and that is why your book is on the wrong track.”
There’s nothing wrong with my book. The errors are in your gross misunderstandings of ENSO and your horrendous portrayals of the processes that govern them.
Arno Arrak says: “You are quite mistaken about the lack of La Nina events between 1991 and 1994, There was a La Nina as big as life in 1993/94.”
A La Niña is characterized by a cooling of the sea surface temperatures of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific. Here’s a link to NOAA’s Oceanic NINO index. In 1993 and in 1994, the ONI NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies did not even reach into negative values.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml
A La Niña is also characterized by a positive Southern Oscillation Index. The fact that La Niña conditions did NOT exist in 1993 and 1994 is also confirmed by the Southern Oscillation Index, Arno. There are no extended periods with SOI values in excess of +8.0 during those years:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml
Once again, Arno, data contradict your misunderstandings of ENSO.
Greg Goodman says: “Indeed. After El Chinon there was rise in global temps (so much for the global cooling effect)…”
You’re forgetting the countering effects of the 1982/83 El Nino, Greg. It was second in strength to the 1997/98 El Nino in the 20th Century.
Greg Goodman says to Arno: “While I agree with most of you comments about El Nino this is specious.”
Most of Arno’s comments about ENSO are misleading, misrepresentative of basic ENSO processes, and not supported by data.
Sorry, the 3 months there is the peak not the fitted time constant. The tail shows it reaching insignificant levels (circa 1%) after about 30mo. My Pinatubo response curve lasts about 4.5 years, due to the lag added by the climate system. Principally ocean thermal inertia.
Bob Tisdale says:
May 31, 2014 at 1:24 am
Greg Goodman says: “Indeed. After El Chinon there was rise in global temps (so much for the global cooling effect)…”
You’re forgetting the countering effects of the 1982/83 El Nino, Greg. It was second in strength to the 1997/98 El Nino in the 20th Century.
====
I’m not forgetting anything Bob, I’m pointing out that one can’t have it both ways. If ENSO mattered in 82 it mattered in 92. This shows that most of what is usually attributed to Mt P is confounded with what would have happened anyway. The natural variation either side of both eruptions was far bigger than any volcanic dip. Quite how the two can be separated is less simple.
From the flux data we can see that there was a fairly smooth periodic variaiton under-lying the Mt.P dip. The effect on surface temps is a lot more noisy and a lot less clear.
http://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2014/03/erbe_adaptive_anom.png?w=814
BTW this new eruption should provide some useful insight since ENSO is fairly calm.
Alan Poirier says: “@Bob Tisdale: Will this eruption be enough to cancel the effects of the predicted El Nino?”
I don’t know enough about the strength of this volcano to answer your question. If this volcanic eruption was a strong as El Chichon, then it could suppress the effects of a strong El Nino. If it was a strong as Mount Pinatubo (and don’t believe it was), then it could overwhelm a strong El Nino.
Heh, guess no one else got the thiotimoline reference.
It’s so reactive that it actually reacts with water before you add it.
Greg Goodman, is there any way you can remove the coordinates of the East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) from ERBE data? That should cut down on the influence of ENSO.
David
The problem with the volcano theory, as with the example you cite and also 1258 and 1816 is that the weather had ALREADY turned down prior to the volcano and improved shortly after. Any effect appears short term and did not appear to precipitate the LIA as claimed by Miller and Mann,.
Here is an account of the weather in Britain around that 1315/6 period you cite;
——- ——- —–
1309/10
Around Christmas great frost and ice on the thames which was used as a passageway
‘such masses of encrusted ice were on the thames that men took their way thereon from queenhithe in southwark and from westminster into London and it lasted so long that the people indulged in dancing in the midst of it near a certain fire made on the same and hunted a hare with dogs in the midst of the thames; London bridge was in great peril and permanently damaged. And the bride a Rochester and the other bridges standing in the current were wholly broken down,.’
Said to be a north wind blowing then a great thaw and flooding that rose so fast the king had to hastily leave Salisbury cathedral lest he drowned. . this rage endured for two days.
1313 the past year was nether cloudy nor serene neither disturbed nor calm-an ordinary year
1314 great wind and rain through much of the year ‘so not seven serene days together could be found’
Generally there seemed to be great famines 1314-1316 caused by wet weather
the rain lasted from Whitsun of 1314 to Easter of 1315.
1315 great inundations of rain for nearly the whole year
1316 great inundation of rain in the summer and autumn
Said to be the last serious famine in England.
1317 very good summer and an early and plentiful harvest.
1318 in Ireland snow the like of which had not been seen for a long time fell.
1321 very hot dry summer according to Short.
Here are the actual crop references from the great Winchester church estates for the period which shows an already wet period.
1312 winter wet summer no ref autumn very wet and long
1313 winter wet summer no ref autumn very wet and long
1314 winter hard summer no ref autumn very wet and long
1315 winter wet flooding summer very wet flooding autumn very wet and long flooding
1316 winter flooding summer unstable flooding autumn wet flooding
1317 no weather ref but flooding reported
1318 winter no ref summer very dry autumn wet
——- ——
tonyb
“A La Niña is characterized by a cooling of the sea surface temperatures of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific. Here’s a link to NOAA’s Oceanic NINO index.”
I really have little time for an “index” based on a runny mean of 3mo averages in the presence of 6mo and 12mo cycles. That’s typical climatologists Mickey Mouse data processing.
If the volcano affects tropical SST how can you use a tropical SST index to determine what ENSO was doing, independently of the volcano? Certainly not by picking a few values off a table.
Equally tropical SST affects tropical SLP so SOI is confounding the effects too.
The problem is the variability in the surface records is as big or larger than the effect of volcanoes. They may not be inseparable but it’s going to need careful work.
TonyB ” Any effect appears short term and did not appear to precipitate the LIA as claimed by Miller and Mann,.”
My estimation is that a major eruption causes extra tropical cooling for about 4-5 years, near zero cooling in tropics. NO longer term offset.
On the contrary, there is a drop in stratospheric temps , which implies more energy making it to surface:
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=902
Now compare to reflected short-wave:
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=955
This latter effect may not be true of historic eruptions but one affect of Mt Pinatubo was 2 watt/metre2 EXTRA incoming energy after it had all settled out.
So far this seems to have gone conveniently unnoticed .
In case that’s not clear enough : volcanoes (at least late 20th ones) cause long-term WARMING not cooling
Let’s look at the stratosphere. What is the temperature at a height of 12 km?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_EQ_2013.gif
Greg
Nasa says that volcanos can cause winter warming which again seems to be forgotten. Their effect is certainly generally not as clear cut or as dramatic as the AGW narrative claims
tonyb
How was temperature at the equator in 1998 at the height of 12 km? Is not the same?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_EQ_1998.gif
The temperature in the stratosphere changes only due to ionization.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_NH_2013.gif
Greg says
“I really have little time for an “index” based on a runny mean of 3mo averages in the presence of 6mo and 12mo cycles. That’s typical climatologists Mickey Mouse data processing.”
Well at the moment it is a useful parameter that DOES allow us to make pretty reasonable conclusions about heat transfer in the ocean and associated transfer to the atmos. If the index is useless as you seem to think then I challenge you to come up with a more useful and use able alternative that is robust.
Boo! hoo! Sob! sob! There’s always some damn natural force getting in the way of global warming…first it was natural variability, then heat-eating oceans, and then polar vortices, now it’s a stupid volcano!!! Sniff…sniff!
Another update http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/sangeangapi/news/45013/Sangeang-Api-volcano-Sunda-Islands-Indonesia-eruption-continues-ash-spreads-to-Australia.html
David Said
“The 1315-1317 European famine was caused by a volcano. Erupted for 2 yrs. cooling the weather were the crops could not grow….”
Trouble is the volcano usually blamed was in New Zealand and the cooling was confined to NW Europe. Its hardly coincidence that this happened at the end of the Mediaeval Warm Period and we know from similar episodes in the 17th and 18th centuries the onset of a cooling period can produce extreme weather and consequent famines.
Terry” If the index is useless as you seem to think then I challenge you to come up with a more useful and use able alternative that is robust.”
A fair challenge but if I have to redo all that crap processing that is done in climatology just so this it can be ignored and the same garbage produced, I don’t think one man’s life time is enough. That does not mean that I do not have the right to criticise what is not done properly or chose not to use an index that I see as unreliable.
So I would suggest those who want such an index work out what they are trying to filter in/out and define a spec. then write a filter that fits the spec. That’s how engineering and science works.
About time those that get paid for this sort of thing learn enough of the last 2 or 3 centuries of science to do the job.