
UPDATE: A cartoon from Josh drawn about a year ago has been added. See below.
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
The United Kingdom Independence Party, the only climate-skeptical party in Britain, has scored a crushing victory in Sunday’s elections to the Duma of the European Union.
Britain’s most true-believing party, the Greens, won one or two new seats, but the second most true-believing party and junior partner in the Children’s Coalition that currently governs at Westminster, the “Liberal” “Democrats” (who are neither), were all but wiped off the map.
The European Duma, like that of Tsar Nicholas II in Russia, has no real power. It cannot even bring forward a Bill, for that vital probouleutic function is the sole right of the unelected Kommissars – the official German name for the tiny, secretive clique of cuisses-de-cuir who wield all real power in the EU behind closed doors.
The Kommissars also – bizarrely – have the power to set aside votes of the elected Duma, which doesn’t even get to vote in the first place without their permission. Democratic it isn’t.
The outgoing Hauptkommissar, Manuel Barroso, is a Maoist – and, like nearly all of the Kommissars, a naïve true-believer in the hard-Left climate-extremist Party Line that is turning Europe into a bankrupt, unconsidered economic backwater.
In the Duma recently (where the Kommissars, though unelected, may sit and speak but not vote), Barroso said there was a “99% consensus” among scientists about the climate. Actually 0.5%, Manuel, baby: read Legates et al., 2013.
Because the Duma is a parliament of eunuchs, UKIP’s couple of dozen members of the European Parliament won’t be able to make very much difference to anything except their bank balances – they all become instant multi-millionaires.
However, after opposition to the EU’s militantly anti-democratic structure and to the mass immigration that has been forced upon Britain as a direct result, UKIP’s third most popular policy with the voters is its opposition to the official EU global-warming story-line.
It was I, as deputy leader of the party in 2009/10, who had the honor of introducing UKIP’s climate policy to the Press. Their reports, as usual, were sneeringly contemptuous. Now the sneers are beginning to falter.
The leadership thought long and hard before adopting the policy. I said we could not lose by adopting a policy that had the twin merits of being true and being otherwise unrepresented in British politics. Private polling confirmed this, so the policy was adopted.
For interest, here – in full – is UKIP’s climate policy as I promulgated it in 2010:
“Global warming: is it just a scam?
“The IPCC’s 1990 First Assessment Report made wildly-exaggerated projections of how global temperature would rise. Yet for the past 15 years [now nigh on 18 years] there has been no statistically-significant “global warming” at all, as a leading IPCC scientist has now admitted. For nine years there has been a rapid cooling trend. None of the IPCC’s computer models predicted that.
“The 1995 Second Assessment Report, in the scientists’ final draft, said five times there was no discernible human influence on climate. Yet one man rewrote the report, replacing all five statements with a single statement saying precisely the opposite. He later said IPCC processes permitted this single-handed rewrite, which has been the official policy ever since.
“The 2001 Third Assessment Report contained a graph contradicting the First Report by falsely abolishing the medieval warm period, which, like the Roman, Minoan, and Holocene optima, and 7500 of the past 11,400 years, and each of the four previous interglacial warm periods, and most of the past 600 million years, was warmer than today. Some 800 scientists from more than 460 institutions in 42 countries over 25 years have written peer-reviewed, learned papers providing evidence that the Middle Ages were warmer than today.
“The 2007 Fourth Assessment Report’s key conclusion that, with 90% confidence, most of the warming since 1950 was manmade is disproven by measurements. A natural decline in global cloud cover from 1983-2001 (Pinker et al., 2005) caused most of that warming.
“The IPCC’s false “90% confidence” estimate was not reached by scientists: it was decided by a show of hands among political representatives who had few scientific qualifications.
“A lead author of the Fourth Assessment Report admits that, “to influence governments”, he knowingly inserted a falsehood to the effect that the Himalayas will be ice-free in 25 years.
“Many other false conclusions of the IPCC were authored not by scientists but by campaigning journalists, members of environmental propaganda groups or IPCC bureaucrats.
“The first table of figures in the IPCC’s 2007 Report did not add up. Bureaucrats had inserted it, overstating tenfold 40 years’ contributions of Greenland and Antarctic ice to sea-level rise.
“The IPCC’s conclusion that CO2 has a major warming effect is false. In the pre-Cambrian era 750 million years ago the Earth was an ice-planet, with glaciers at sea level at the Equator: yet atmospheric CO2 concentration was 300,000 ppmv – 700 times today’s 388 ppmv. If CO2 had the large warming effect the IPCC imagines, the glaciers could not have been there.
“In the Cambrian era 550 million years ago, CO2 concentration was 7000 ppmv (IPCC, 2001): yet that was when the first calcite corals achieved algal symbiosis. In the Jurassic era 175 million years ago, CO2 concentration was 6000 ppmv (IPCC, 2001): yet that was when the first aragonite corals came into existence. While the oceans continue to run over rocks, they must remain pronouncedly alkaline. Ocean “acidification” is a chemical impossibility.
“Many peer-reviewed papers (e.g. Douglass et al., 2004, 2008, 2009; Schwartz, 2007; Monckton, 2008; Lindzen & Choi, 2009) show that the IPCC has exaggerated the warming effect of greenhouse gases up to 7-fold. Without that exaggeration, there is no climate crisis.
“The economics of global warming
“Millions have died of starvation, or are menaced by it, because the world’s governments have unwisely trusted the UN’s climate panel (the IPCC) and the self-serving national scientific institutions that have profiteered by parroting its now-discredited findings.
“The World Bank has reported that three-quarters of the doubling of world food prices that occurred two years ago is directly attributable to the global dash for biofuels.
“Herr Ziegler, the UN’s Right-to-Food Rapporteur, has said that while millions are starving the diversion of farmland from food to biofuels is “a crime against humanity”.
“Lord Stern’s discredited report on climate economics unrealistically adopted a near-zero discount rate for appraisal of “investment” in carbon-dioxide mitigation and doubled the IPCC’s already-exaggerated high-end estimate of the warming to be expected from CO2. Without these grave economic and scientific errors, no case for spending any taxpayers’ money on mitigation of CO2 emissions can be made.
“A carbon-trading scheme that sets a low price for the right to emit a ton of carbon dioxide is merely a tax and does not affect the climate, while a high price drives our jobs and industries overseas to countries which emit more CO2 than us, raising mankind’s global CO2 footprint. The chief profiteers from carbon trading are banks.
“A steelworks at Redcar is closing with the loss of 1700 jobs, because the European carbon-trading scheme has made it uneconomic. Precisely the same steelworks will be re-erected in India. Net effect on the climate: nil. Net effect on British workers’ jobs: catastrophic.
“If we were to shut down the entire global carbon economy altogether, and go back to the Stone Age but without even the right to light a carbon-emitting fire in our caves, it would take 41 years to forestall just 1 C° of “global warming”. The cost is disproportionate.
“Even if the IPCC were right in imagining that a doubling of CO2 concentration will cause as much as 3.26 ± 0.69 C° of “global warming”, adaptation as and if necessary would be orders of magnitude cheaper and more cost-effective than attempting to limit CO2 emissions.
“Global warming gurus humbled
“Dr. Rajendra Pachauri, who chairs IPCC’s climate science panel, is a railroad engineer. The Charity Commission is investigating TERI-Europe, a charity of which Pachauri and his predecessor as IPCC science chairman were trustees. The charity filed false accounts three years running, under-declaring its income by many hundreds of thousands of pounds.
“Dr. “Phil” Jones, director of the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, on which the IPCC has relied for its global temperature record, has stepped down after a whistleblower published emails between him and other leading IPCC scientists revealing manipulation, concealment and intended destruction of scientific results.
“Dr. Jones has admitted that his Unit has lost much of the data on which the IPCC relies. The “Climategate” files show his Unit received millions in increased taxpayer funding so that it could investigate “global warming”.
“Al Gore has made hundreds of millions from “global warming”, and may become the first climate-change billionaire. In 2007 a High Court judge found nine errors in his film serious enough to require 77 pages of corrective guidance to be sent to every school in England.
“On Gore’s notion that sea level would imminently rise by 20 feet (6.1 m), the judge ruled: “The Armageddon scenario that he depicts is not based on any scientific view.” IPCC (2007) projects sea-level rise of 1-2 ft by 2100: Mörner (2004, 2010) projects just 4 ± 4 in.
“Gore said a scientific study had found polar bears dying as they swam to find ice. In fact, Monnett & Gleason (2006) had reported just four bears killed in a bad storm. For 30 years there has been no decline in sea-ice in the Beaufort Sea, where the bears died. There are many times more polar bears today than in 1940.
“Gore said Mount Kilimanjaro’s glacier had lost much of its ice because of “global warming”. In fact, the cause was desiccation of the atmosphere caused by regional cooling (Molg et al., 2003). Mean summit temperature has averaged –7 °C for 30 years and, in that time, summit temperature has never risen above –1.6 °C. The Fürtwängler glacier at the summit began receding in the 1880s, long before mankind could have had any influence over the climate. Half the glacier had gone before Hemingway wrote The Snows of Kilimanjaro in 1936.
“What is to be done
“Royal Commission on global warming science and economics
“UKIP would appoint a Royal Commission on global warming science and economics, under a High Court Judge, with advocates on either side of the case, to examine and cross-examine the science and economics of global warming with all the evidential rigour of a court of law.
“The remit of the Royal Commission would be to decide –
Ø “Whether and to what degree the IPCC has exaggerated climate sensitivity to CO2 or other greenhouse gases;
Ø “Whether and under what conditions, if any, the IPCC’s imagined consequences of the present rate of atmospheric CO2 enrichment will be beneficial or harmful;
Ø “Whether and under what conditions, if any, mitigation of global warming by reducing carbon emissions will be cheaper and more cost-effective than adaptation as, and if, necessary;
Ø “Whether and under what conditions any emissions-trading scheme can make any appreciable difference to the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere, and whether and to what degree, if any, any such difference would affect global surface temperature.
“Other climate-change measures
“Pending the report of the Royal Commission, UKIP would immediately –
Ø “Repeal the Climate Change Act, and close the Climate Change Department;
Ø “Halt all UK contributions to the IPCC and to the UN Framework Convention;
Ø “Halt all UK contributions to any EU climate-change policy, including carbon trading;
Ø “Freeze all grant aid for scientific research into “global warming”.
“In any event, UKIP would immediately –
Ø “Commission enough fossil-fuelled and nuclear power stations to meet demand;
Ø “Cease to subsidize wind-farms, on environmental and economic grounds;
Ø “Cease to subsidize any environmental or “global-warming” pressure-groups;
Ø “Forbid public authorities to make any “global-warming”-related expenditure;
Ø “Relate Met Office funding to the accuracy of its forecasts;
Ø “Ban global warming propaganda, such as Gore’s movie, in schools;
Ø “Divert a proportion of the billions now wasted on the non-problem of global warming towards solving the world’s real environmental problems.
“UKIP has been calling for a rational, balanced approach to the climate debate since 2008, when extensive manipulation of scientific data first became clear. There must be an immediate halt to needless expenditure on the basis of a now-disproven hypothesis.
“Given our unprecedented national debt crisis, not a penny must be wasted, not a single job lost to satisfy vociferous but misguided campaigners, often led by ill-informed media celebrities, profiteering big businesses, insurance interests and banks. The correct policy approach to the non-problem of global warming is to have the courage to do nothing.”
If you know of any political party, anywhere, that has a climate policy more vigorously and healthily skeptical than UKIP, let me know in comments.
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More like 27.5%, an 11% increase.
Gareth Phillips says:
…UKIP received less than 10% of the UK vote…
Results.
Christoph beat me to it!
richardscourtney
You give the impression of the a person who when on holiday, if left alone long enough in a bedroom (a normal one, say in a B&B), after half an hour there’d be an awful kerfuffle coming from your room after you’d manage to get into a fight with the duvet…there is something of the Basil Fawlty about you.
And please, I don’t mean that as an insult, it’s just you sound like you love a good scrap! And at any time.
Hi Christoph Dollis, yes, they received 27.5% from those who voted, but only 35% of the UK population voted. Amongst the UK voters the share received by any party was less than 9%. UKIP did indeed have a substantial increase in votes, but it was from a very low base. It’s useful to look at local elections as an example of how people vote when they are directly affected by the outcome. In that particular election Labour gained 6 councils and an extra 338 seats. In contrast UKIP gained no councils, but did win an extra 161 seats. In comparison, Labour won a four figure amount of seats, but their victory was seen as a poor show, UKIP won a tenth of that, but the result was viewed as earth shattering. So it’s all about perspective. If I were a UKIP supporter I’d be happy, if I supported Labour I would not be overly concerned. But my party did better than expected so I am confident.
Is UKIP half-baked. Yes. Has its sudden success taken them by surprise? Yes. But don’t believe for a moment that it won’t quickly mature having surprised themselves. When prospects of forming a gov are remote, there is no hurry. One can experiment widely looking for a raison d’etre. They did already know that there was wide spread dissatisfaction across the policy spectrum and just to be against most of it was a good way to make room for a new party. Also, they have been listening to the unhappiness of the electorate. The other parties haven’t been. They’ve just rolled along merrily with the idea that they know what is best for all.
In elections, the best strategy, if it can be taken advantage of, is pumping on one’s record and belittling that of the others. Since this strategy, after the past two decades, is not available to the incumbents, then there is pretty much a level playing field in that department. You will see pols from labor to conservatives desperately looking for ways to adopt UKIP’s broad policy positions without appearing to. Emboldened, and matured, UKIP is going to look like a savior of last resort. People may not love UKIP but they are looking for something different. If Farage has any rhetorical flair and shows himself to be a thoughtful iconoclast, the “entitlement” parties will have no useful arrows in their quivers. In Canada, I recall an old Liberal saying that, after the corruption and negligence of the Liberal Party in two decades of power against little opposition, they do deserve some time in the “penalty box”. An idiot could redesign governance of the UK.
– – – – – – – –
richardscourtney,
If you go back and do a word search on this thread for the word troll, you will see that the thread was irretrievably distracted by Christopher Monckton’s initiation of taunting people by his troll name calling. There was only one other person on this thread who accused another of being a troll. That other person was you . . . . so you aided in Christopher Monckton’s thread diversion into troll name calling. You two created it as a diversion.
As to inventing words, enjoy it. All words were made up by somebody. N’est ce pas?
Will my invented word ‘trolloper’*** live beyond this thread? I do not know or care.
*** trolloper is defined as a person who habitually initiates taunts which consist of accusing fellow bloggers of being trolls when disagreeing with them.
John
Sure, but not 100% of the people vote in UK national elections so it’s still higher than the number you state, when you consider that. That said, they do better at the EU than nationally because people don’t want to waste their votes in the national election. That effect will hold, but be lessened, in the next UK election. I’ve seen political paradigms change, for example, in Canada. This is what you’re seeing here, and it’s Europe-wide. It won’t happen in one national election. More likely three.
No
No. This is precisely the task their leader set out for himself and communicated to the party. I knew damn well it would be a good showing for nationalist parties across Europe opposing accountability at the EU, excess immigration, and even a lack of respect for ethnic self-determination in parts of Ukraine.
It’s you who this took by surprise.
*opposing unaccountability at the EU
cd:
re your post at May 28, 2014 at 8:45 am.
Please provide evidence when making personal attacks of that type. Otherwise you could be assumed to be a troll of the John Whitman kind.
Richard
– – – – – – – – –
richardscourtney,
RE; the causers of the troll distraction can be found by Word Search (often by Ctrl+F) function. That is the observed evidence.
John
I will point out, Christopher, that you failed to make the case that climate had much to do with this result to an audience who would like to believe that it did.
Christopher Monckton,
Can you answer the open question to the general audience here that I asked in a comment yesterday on this thread? Where are the current (say in ~6 months) public statements explicitly made by the UKIP that indicates the existence of a current PR signal from the UKIP that it has a basically skeptical position toward significant or alarming AGW? I am not interested in what other parties or MSM say about the UKIP on alarming AGW, but I am interested in what the UKIP’s statements currently (in the last `6 months) signal about its position on alarming AGW.
I think that if the UKIP, in the last ~6 months or so, had virtually no public and explicit focus on alarming AGW then it seems that would not have been a very relevant factor in the election outcome.
John
Have UKIP made any recent statements about Climate Change?
Here is their 2014 Euro manifesto:
http://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/themes/5308a93901925b5b09000002/attachments/original/1398869254/EuroManifestoLaunch.pdf
And here is the relevant passage:
“Risk Of Blackouts
• The 2008 Climate Change Act costs an estimated £18bn per year – that’s more than £500 for every household in the UK. We will scrap this Act.
• EU renewables targets mean taxpayers’ money subsidises wind farms that require gas powered
back-up when the wind doesn’t blow.
• The EU Large Combustion Plant Directive will shut many vital oil and coal-fired power stations in 2015.
OFGEM warns that plant closures could cause blackouts.”
You must remember, in an election, it is important to remind the voters how current policy affects them and what is proposed so, it is the increased energy costs that need to be highlighted, and the action required to improve the situation is “scrapping the 2008 Climate Change Act”.
There have been many statements and discussions by UKIP members about the Science, or lack of it, and the manifesto was a short, no frills document outlining the party’s intended direction.
The 2008 Climate Change is one of many peculiar policies that have recently been foisted upon Britain.
When your children return from school on their first day at school and ask why no one in their class understands them, or why they get no teaching because their teachers are spending all their time trying to teach the non-English speakers some English, instead of improving their writing, reading and arithmetic skills, or they are forced to learn Arabic, so they can read the Koran, with the boys at the front of the class, the 2008 Climate Change Act pales into insignificance!
OK, but I think he made ad buys and public speeches—not something on the website 16 wonks who weren’t actually paid by a party or their media organisation to read, read.
*he meant
The 2008 Climate Change Act was passed by Parliament. Unusually, for Britain, the date for the re-election of members has already been pencilled in: it is next year.
The elections last week were for local and Eu representation. The leaflets were designed accordingly. It is well known that UKIP want to scrap the 2008 Climate Change Act, it is one of their USPs, but there are many aspects of the Green agenda that need to be addressed and some have been included in leaflets, such as “End[ing] wasteful EU and UK subsidies to ‘renewable energy scams’, such as wind turbines and solar farms”, dropping the EU Landfill Directive and closing unnecessary central government departments and quangos. I would think that the Environment Agency would be a good candidate for inspection!
The leaflets had the UKIP web address ukip.org and, on the home page, under the heading getINFORMED, you will find the information available. Not difficult to find, wonk or not!
As most of the British public are now sceptical of the ‘alarming AGW’, to me, it was sensible to move the discussion onto other subjects, including more details of cost savings that could be made around the Climate Change budget, as I have mentioned above.
Wow, Robert, that was a sensible argument. Much easier to follow than any which came before.
One question though—how did you manage to make a cogent statement without calling a bunch of people who generally agree with you trolls? I thought that was a necessary first step to any good rebuttal?
/sarc [but not at you]
Mr Dollis, who continues to fail to contribute anything constructive, says I did not convince a skeptical audience that the climate had much to do with UKIP’s election result. Of course not. Nothing in the head posting said or implied that, and I stated that the climate policy ranked third after leaving the EU and controlling immigration.
Mr Whitman asks which of UKIP’s recent public statements addresses the climate. Try the energy policy document, or Mr Farage’s head-to-head with Barroso in the European duma on supposedly melting sea ice, or the demand by one of our MEPs that the teaching of climate propaganda in schools should be banned, or Mr Helmer’s statement on the absence of “97% consensus”, or UKIP’s 2014 EU manifesto itself, which ranked climate change policy third after leaving the EU and controlling immigration, precisely as I had said in the head posting.
John Whitman:
re your post at May 28, 2014 at 10:14 am.
Of course, as you say, you are never the first to mention trolling. Similarly, a thief is never the first to mention theft.
You have a long history of supporting trolling on WUWT. It is your method of trolling and has obtained objections from others including me.
Richard
PS I notice that Philip Schaeffer – having had such success trolling this thread with your assistance – has now started trolling other WUWT threads e.g. here.
John Whitman says:
May 28, 2014 at 1:14 pm
Christopher Monckton,
…
I am not interested in what other parties or MSM say about the UKIP on alarming AGW, but I am interested in what the UKIP’s statements currently (in the last `6 months) signal about its position on alarming AGW.
I think that if the UKIP, in the last ~6 months or so, had virtually no public and explicit focus on alarming AGW then it seems that would not have been a very relevant factor in the election outcome.
John
===============================
Either you haven’t understood what Lord Monckton wrote in his original article or you are after something else. Lord Monckton showed us his contribution to UKIP policies and you come up with some sort of “show us this show us that”, which means distraction and obfuscating Moncktons arguments. Why do you expect UKIP focusing on a subject to your liking? UKIP, through its representatives at various meetings and speeches made clear what its attitude towards energy and climate policies is. Go and get informed yourself. It will certainly do you no harm.
I suppose you are after the man and not the ball. Foul play, that is.
Except for emphasising the key issues (which go further than the two you mentioned).
Anyway, you’ve certainly contributed a lot of shrill shrieks of, “Trolls! Trolls, trolls everywhere, I tell you!”
Further, brilliant job, Nigel. I didn’t even bring up Syria (I did bring up two other issues more critical to the electorate than climate in this election that you, Monckton, didn’t mention in your post, including Ukraine, i.e., Europe overstretching itself to the east dangerously), , but certainly it’s something I’ve talked about elsewhere several times..
Good on him for making the practical and moral argument about Syria too. It’s disgraceful that taxpayer dollars go to supporting Al Qaida affiliated groups with all their Syrian mass beheadings and other murders. European policy on Ukraine is abysmal too, in part for the reasons Nigel Farage mentions as well as the one I mentioned here. And racial harmony is also an important concern given the largely unwanted mass immigration, as he says and I alluded to also.
You may consider these and other issues unimportant, Monckton, but Nigel Farage and the British electorate disagreed, as did those across Europe writ large.
(I’m contrasting it with the purely economic arguments.)