By Joe Bastardi and Anthony Watts (based on an email exchange)
This is interesting. NOAA is forecasting the months of August, September, and October of 2014 to have above normal Arctic Sea ice extent. As readers know, late September is typically the time of the Arctic Sea Ice minimum, and this year the NOAA forecast has it slightly above normal. Here is the NOAA forecast graph:
UPDATE: I no more than finished this post and NOAA had a new updated forecast for May 23rd, added below. (h/t Ric Werme)
For the last three May 12th forecasts, this year’s forecast for summer is the highest of them.
Source: http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif
Notice how much higher this is than last years forecast at this time:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201305/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif
And also higher than in 2012:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/201205/imagesInd3/sieMon.gif
The CFSV2 forecasting model was not on line before that, but if we then go to the Northern hemisphere sea ice plot from Cryosphere today we can see how significant this would be if summer came out with a positive anomaly.
![seaice.anomaly.arctic[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/seaice-anomaly-arctic1.png)
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png
It appears that all summers since about 1996 have not had any positive anomalies. (see magnified view below)
At the very least if we get it positive and the melt season is the lowest since the AMO went warm it will be something that goes right at the heart of the arguments that recent Arctic sea ice deviations are entirely human caused.
In addition, given the Southern Hemisphere continues with well above normal sea ice, if it continues, it gives us a shot at a record breaking global sea ice in the satellite era.
On the other hand, it is a model forecast, and may not come to be. It will be interesting to watch though.
As always, check the WUWT Sea Ice Page for the latest information.
Here is the background on CFS:
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2)
The CFS version 2 was developed at the Environmental Modeling Center at NCEP. It is a fully coupled model representing the interaction between the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, land and seaice. It became operational at NCEP in March 2011.
Please reference the following article when using the CFS Reanalysis (CFSR) data.
Saha, Suranjana, and Coauthors, 2010: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1015.1057. doi: 10.1175/2010BAMS3001.1
Please reference the following article when using the CFS version 2 Reforecast model or data
Saha, Suranjana and Coauthors, 2014: The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 Journal of Climate J. Climate, 27, 2185–2208. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
So far Arctic ice extent 2014 has been running notably lower than it was in 2012.
Bearing in mind it tends to show an anti-correlation at a lag of one year (ie it tends to alternate from year to year) it may be expected to be lower than 2013. That’s not a hard cast rule but it’s a very strong pattern.
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/09/16/on-identifying-inter-decadal-variation-in-nh-sea-ice/
We’re still on the rising part of the circa 5 y pattern I found but the _anomaly_ will probably peak after the annual minimum in Sept. similar to 2008.
http://climategrog.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/art_nh_ice_area_short_anom_2007_detail.png
That last cycle was sloping down, the current one will tend upwards (by a similar amount if I’m correct).
Also last year’s marked increase in ice volume may start to reduce the large magnitude of the annual variability we have seen since 2007.
It seems unlike to me on the basis of several indication above that Arctic ice extent anomaly will be higher than last year by Sept., though it may peak later than that.
I expect Sept to be lower than last year but a disappointing year for those who are so concerned about the future of our climate that they are cheering it on every time ice melts.
mosher: uninteresting
RACookPE1978 : interesting
RACookPE1978 says:
May 23, 2014 at 10:09 pm
RACookPE1978,
Solid argumentation!
Mac
Also note that the Cyrosphere Today anomaly graph that WUWT posted at the top and my work are based on ice area , not ice extent which is the subject of the model.
It’s not quite the same thing , so best not to confound the two.
BTW the anti-correlation I mentioned indicates the presence of a fast acting negative regional feedback. None of the models have such a feedback and none work. Coincidence? I think not.
Open water apparently provides a stabilising effect, not a “tipping point”.
If there was positive feedback, even a mild one, last year would not have been possible. Once you are into a down trend due to a positive feedback you don’t come back out without a massive input.
There is no evidence of any massive change in forcing so last years increase in ice extent and above all the 50% increase in ice volume totally negates the hypothesis that the 1997-2007 slide was “run away melting” due to a positive feedback.
That was a reasonable hypothesis in 2007 when the down turn did look close to quadratic : the form created by a +ve feedback. Fortunately for the planet that pattern stopped in 2007. There is now enough data to say categorically that is not happening.
That’s an engineering analysis. The idiots will be flapping their arms for another 10-15 years until the extent is the same it was in 1997 and will then be wailing about something else.
See here, up to 2007 each segment was getting steeper. The data was short but one explanation could have been “run away melting”.
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/09/16/on-identifying-inter-decadal-variation-in-nh-sea-ice/
However, the last segment sees that backing off. That’s 5 years with less slope. That fundamentally incompatible with the quadratic model.
The rebound of 2013 was not even included in that last segment. 2007-2012 was already showing slower melting.
This suggests either the exposed water and the larger annual swings provided a negative feedback that slows the melting, or some long term external driver has changed direction.
The sea ice may be a bit higher this year than last year. I see a possibility for a cooler period starting towards the end of July and into September, which would help maintain the existing Arctic sea ice through the minimum. ENSO should be back to minus by then also.
Jimbo says:
May 23, 2014 at 4:30 pm
The North Pole has NEVER been ice free before. It really is much worse than we thought. LOL.
I think you will find that the events you discuss in your in post have little or nothing to do with the ice melting, or the pole being ice free. What you are talking about is “polynyas.” They are naturally occurring gaps in the ice and have nothing to do with the poles melting or otherwise. Certainly the USS Skate surfaced through one of these. So to imply the Skate just popped up because there was no ice around is misleading. Have a look at this http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/01/nasa-and-multi-year-arctic-ice-and-historical-context/#comment-909588
If there is so much worry about an ice-free Arctic, isn’t an ice-breaker cruise ship a bit of an embarrassment?
ossqss says:
May 23, 2014 at 4:08 pm
ossqss,
Aaaarrrrgggghhhh!
Clouds closed in about 11:50pm PDT – No meteorites for you!
Didn’t see anything significant……. but it was real nice, just listening to the frogs!
Mac
philincalifornia
STOP putting Monty Python sketches on here, I’ve just spent the last 140mims surfing through 97% of them & remembering my youth…..often wonder what happened to him ???
North Pole Camera One fell over yesterday, which annoys me hugely, as it had a wonderful picture of a nearby lead which had opened, frozen over, crushed shut to form a pressure ridge, reopened, and again frozen over. I was looking forward to studying that lead all summer, and then some stupid bear (I imagine) decided the camera looked like an interesting toy. The same thing happened last year, though not until early August. Those bears have no respect for taxpayers.
RE: Just The Facts says:
May 23, 2014 at 9:37 pm
That is an excellent animation, which shows how even in the Spring the Arctic Sea cracks up and freezes over. My suspicion is that every time the water is exposed it loses heat, until air temperatures get warmer than water temperatures for a seven week window between mid June and early August. In other words, for 45 out of 52 weeks open water enhances cooling. Also exposing the sea allows churning to disturb the stratification of the Arctic Ocean into interesting layers, wherein warmer, saltier water can lurk beneath colder, more-brackish water.
The past two winters have seen a lot of cross-polar-flows and even polar gales, which have smashed and crashed the ice a lot. Alarmists initially thought the cracking ice was a sign that we were in the last stages of the “death spiral,” and I think they are in shock about ice increasing. They felt any open water would suck up sunshine and lead to more melting, unaware that may be the case in July, but the rest of the year open water leads to cooling.
I don’t trust the model Mr. Bastardi is looking at, because I think it fails to factor in everything. The more I observe the arctic the more I am in awe of how many subtle factors you need to consider. For just one example, this spring seems stormier than past springs, which leads to more clouds, and clouds warm the air temperature while reducing the warming of direct sunshine….so is a stormy spring warming or not?
My own guess (and it is a sheer guess) is that, because the ice is so smashed up, we will see water absorbing more sunshine during the seven week summer-thaw window. Also the PDO temporarily switching to a “warm” phase will temporarily reverse the build-up of ice on the Pacific side. However the water under the ice is likely colder, which should resist melting-from-beneath. I imagine ice-levels will approach normal, but not get above normal.
I am aware of Polynyas. My point was to address those who tell us that it has never been ice-free – or for a million years etc.
Furthermore, there were non-Polynya induced ice-free periods during the Holocene. You may have missed my peer reviewed references HERE.
As you can see such claims of shock and horror about the North Pole ice free is basic drivel.
I didn’t believe forecasts of doom and I don’t believe this one. We are likely on the way to recovery but it won’t be that fast.
Did I imply that. I have seen the photos many times before AND I have seen the surrounding ice. The POLE is the POLE and not the Arctic. If it’s ice free then it’s ice free, Polynya or not. Please re-direct you misleading allegation to the Warmist side who make misleading and false statements about past Arctic sea ice conditions. If they are aware of Polynya’s then why make such claims?
Thanks. Now please run along and tell that to the Arctic specialists and climastrologists who raise alarm on this very issue. Please do you homework next time before coming out with “stupid” responses. PAY ATTENTION.
As you can see it has happened before and it’s nothing unusual. So why does Mosher attempt to insult and talk utter garbage. Look back at what you said Mosher.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/globalsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif
Middle of May, Atlantic on the equator, something happens.
Any idea what???
Here is something from sunshinehours yesterday. Is it worse than we thought?
Caused some real problems
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/alaskan-polar-bears-threatened-too-much-spring-ice-0
Steven Mosher says:
May 23, 2014 at 6:29 pm
Here is what ice free means : extent or area less than 1 million sq km
———————————————
I expect if it gets down to 1.5 million sq km, then that will be considered ‘close enough’ (for government work).
And then, shortly after, another bunch of eejits in canoes will have to rescued from the ice.
To what purpose does NOAA produce such forecasts? The Arctic is virtually uninhabited, and I can’t imagine the few people who live there are on NOAA’s distribution list.
NOAA’s forecast helps no one. It is useless. Consider this: who will be hurt if they are wrong?
One thing I like about Arctic ice is the way it makes fools out of all, who try to predict it.
With increasing global ice and flat GMT, greening deserts, increasing food production, no acceleration of SLR, decreasing severe weather… what is left for the catastofarians to complain about.
I guess, they were right, when they constantly broadcast “It’s worse than we thought!” Naked men throughout the community are realizing that they have no clothes. How embarrassing for them all. GK
An Ice free Arctic would be a HUGE benefit to those nations that border the Arctic Ocean. Imagine for a moment that the Atlantic, Pacific, or Indian Oceans were frozen over and what this would mean for the bordering countries.
Unfortunately, the doom and gloom crowd only see change as a portent of disaster rather than what it is – an opportunity. Yet the evidence argues strongly otherwise.
Human beings are perhaps the most opportunistic animal on the planet. In large part we exploit change. For example, Gore, Hansen, Mann and others have exploited climate change to gain fame and fortune.
Yet those same individuals would have us believe that while they have done very well as a result of climate change, the rest of us will do very poorly. This contradicts the evidence. Since climate change has been beneficial to those studying and promoting climate change – then the rest of us stand to make out like bandits doing the same.
The only group that has suffered as a result of climate change so far are those hapless taxpayers like those in the EU and BC that have had to pay carbon taxes that, unlike more typical other taxes, were subsequently traded away outside of EU and BC.
The billions in euro’s that went to India and China, those are gone. The hundreds of millions diverted from BC’s ratepayers and the public sector to Pacific Carbon Trust, again this money is gone. The true victims of climate change.
Ditto.
Ditto.