Open Thread Weekend

open_threadThis holiday weekend, be sure to remember the U.S. Memorial Day, which is Monday. I’m offline except maybe for some time tonight and tomorrow morning.

Feel free to discuss the usual topics at WUWT.

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
PaulH

Great! That gives me a chance to catch up. 🙂 I have about a dozen WUWT articles on my reading list.

ENSO fans: In case you’re wondering if the ENSO meter is struck at +0.5, rest assured that my script is fetching data fine. The last few samples are:
data from 00Z19APR2014 to 00Z19MAY2014
“———-”
0.325631
0.471803
0.464477
0.537209
The last three all round to +0.5.

Bloke down the pub

I’ve just been watching an episode of Coast Australia, the BBC series that’s migrated to the antipodes. One of the talking heads on it was Tim Flannery. Good to see that Auntie found employment for him after he lost his job in Tony Abbots cuts. Te Hee.

No major news on the E-Cat front. Everyone is waiting for the publication of results for a multi-month independent run, hopefully around the end of June. There are various other things going on, but I’m not following them closely. http://www.e-catworld.com/

Anthony, enjoy your weekend!!!!

john

India hits U.S., China with solar imports anti-dumping duties
http://in.reuters.com/article/2014/05/23/uk-india-solar-idINKBN0E30YI20140523
(Reuters) – India will impose anti-dumping duties on solar panels imported from the United States, China, Taiwan and Malaysia to protect domestic solar manufacturers, according to a government statement seen by Reuters on Friday.
The order, almost certain to anger India’s trading partners, sets duties of between 11 and 81 U.S. cents per watt and comes after a investigation which started in 2011. The ruling by a quasi-judicial body has to be published by the Finance Ministry before it takes effect.
The decision adds to India’s growing trade disputes just before Narendra Modi takes office as prime minister on Monday.
“Imposition of anti-dumping measures would remove the unfair advantages gained by dumping practices,” said India’s Anti-Dumping Authority in its order released on Thursday.
Local manufacturers have long complained that U.S., Chinese and Malaysian companies enjoy state subsidies and are selling their products at artificially low prices to capture the Indian market.
India also believes that anti-dumping duties imposed on Chinese solar producers by the European Union and the United States have further driven down the price of Chinese solar products, to the detriment of Indian suppliers.

I welcome the Memorial Day holiday here in the US. It is the unofficial beginning of summer for many here . . . . .
John

Latest scare!
“Historic Houses To Catch Diseases From Climate Change”!
http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/05/24/historic-homes-at-risk-from-climate-change/

Weekend open thread buzzkill: Watched my first episode of “years of living dangerously” last night on showtime from 9-10pm EDT….the episode focused on Methane gas leaking out all over from pipelines and rigs, how the Kansas legislature almost rolled back renewable energy standards and the “climate denialist” industry featuring James Taylor from Heartland institute. The big-boned America Ferrera introduced him as a climate change “denier” and then asked him for his take on climate change?….Mr. Taylor: “CO2 is a greenhouse gas and more of it should lead to some warming” . Ms. Big-bones: “So you are denying that global warming is happening”
….we are all gonna die.

“North Pole Camera” #1 has fallen over and lies on its side, viewing the world like a drunk with one cheek against the snow. Even from that angle it has captured the building of a pressure ridge in the distance. (I have no idea why the camera fell. Maybe a bear thought it was a good toy, and maybe the ice shook when a collision between two floes occurred.)
Will someone please shell out the money to fly someone up there in a helicopter, to prop the camera back up? A lot of interesting stuff is happening up there, this year.
“North Pole Camera” #2 shows a new crack in the ice in the mid distance.
http://sunriseswansong.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/arctic-sea-ice-melt-the-pulverized-pole/
The ice is very bashed-up this year, but I don’t think that means it will melt faster. One odd thing, at this time of year, is that the ice can be warmer than the water it floats on, because the ice contains fresher water than the sea-water. You can have 31 degree ice floating on 29.5 degree water.
In the Sea-ice post before this post “Just The Facts” pasted this great video, which shows how smashed-up the ice is, even where the ice is thick, (and also shows how swiftly the cracks “heal”).
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/beaufortictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

Gordon Fosty

Since Climate Science is settled, why isn’t there just a single computer model with all the parameters affecting the climate agreed to by the 97% of scientists?

ren

Late May the situation in the Balkans (jet stream) will be repeated.
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=650&c=5
Here you can see how the jet stream will move over the Balkans.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t100_nh_f120.gif

Alan Robertson

Someone just sent me this link, which is highly entertaining, but is ultimately just a propaganda indoctrination of young people. http://loiter.co/v/why-are-we-not-funding-this-2/

Hope all of you in the US enjoy your Memorial Day Holiday. Here in UK, Monday is a Bank (public) holiday and guess what? It’s raining!
Can someone also please explain to me what is happening in the Antarctic? The last I heard was that the ice sheet there was bigger than ever and that the ice in the Arctic had shrunk!

John Boles

It was good to learn of the sting on Begley and the others. It seems a bit heavy handed, but I think it is okay to do once in a while, get them to show their true colors. What I would rather see is photos and vids of the McKibbens and Manns and Hansens and Lewandowskis driving cars and buying gasoline and flying on jets and heating their homes, etc. Begley lives pretty frugally to begin with, but he was an easy target because of his connection to Hollywood. I am very happy to have found WUWT, a great resource on the climate debate. Best regards to all.

climatebeagle

Thanks to Nick Stokes quoting of the CFv2 paper[1] we see that:
– models do make predictions and forecasts
– models can be compared to observations
So, is the some official climate “science” notification that indicates which models can be compared to observations and which cannot?
[1] http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/23/sea-ice-news-volume-5-2-noaa-forecasts-above-normal-arctic-ice-extent-for-summer/#comment-1644600

ren
Chris Edwards

Can someone here help and answer this? IF humans are causing a problem burning too much fossil fuel for the planet to handle (I doubt this) then would not the O2 content of the atmosphere be going down? And if the powers that be really thought that CO2 was bad would they not ban the catalytic converters we all are forced to use (for very little reason these days) that magnify the output of CO2 from our cars and trucks?

Walt Allensworth

Opinions sought on this topic:
How good a proxy for world temperatures is the GISP-2 Ice Core data?
This is a critical question because if it is a good proxy then the several large temperature swings in the Holocene in the past make the current temperature increase look rather mundane and average.
Thanks in advance!

Eric

US taxpayers fund $5.6 million “Climate Change Games” at Columbia U… seems to be a website full of “voicemails from the future”…WTF?! Hilarious… if it wasn’t costing us money.
http://freebeacon.com/issues/taxpayers-paid-5-6-million-for-climate-change-games/

Richard M

Walt Allensworth says:
May 24, 2014 at 8:37 am
Opinions sought on this topic:
How good a proxy for world temperatures is the GISP-2 Ice Core data?

I’d say it’s pretty good, especially for the Northern Hemisphere (the real amplitude is probably less). Keep in mind that it ends in 1854 and you must add on some amount of warming to get to present day. It is the amount of warming that is likely to be more questionable. Anywhere from .2C to about .8C depending on your views.

glen martin

When was the last time there was still ice on Lake Superior during Memorial Day weekend?

Chris Edwards says:
May 24, 2014 at 8:25 am
Can someone here help and answer this? IF humans are causing a problem burning too much fossil fuel for the planet to handle (I doubt this) then would not the O2 content of the atmosphere be going down?
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
O2 is about 20% IIRC of the atmosphere. So, about 200,000 ppm (parts per million)
Over the course of the industrial revolution, CO2 has gone from 280 ppm to about 400 ppm. If we were to assume that for every CO2 coming in, one O2 comes out, that would leave O2 at 199,880 ppm. In other words almost zero percent change. Given the accelerated growth of plants due to CO2 fertilization which releases the O2 from the CO2 back in to the atmosphere, it would be even less than that.

Gary Pearse

Gordon Fosty says:
May 24, 2014 at 7:33 am
“Since Climate Science is settled, why isn’t there just a single computer model with all the parameters affecting the climate agreed to by the 97% of scientists?”
Why don’t they lay off all but one climate scientist.

SC-Slywolf

john says:
May 24, 2014 at 7:01 am
India hits U.S., China with solar imports anti-dumping duties

Does Pachauri have iterests in Indian solar?

Patrick

“SC-Slywolf says:
May 24, 2014 at 10:02 am
Does Pachauri have iterests in Indian solar?”
Check out Pachauri and Tata. Tata pretty much have been given Land Rover, since about 2008, and British Steel as well as “renewables”.

Gunga Din

Here’s a thought. The “greens” are for all things natural and are always calling for “renewable” energy. They are also against coal and oil.
Aren’t coal and oil natural? Weren’t they formed by natural processes? Unless those natural processes have ceased, coal and oil are being slowly renewed.
Just a thought I don’t recall being brought up before.

Anything is possible

GISS and the adjustment for Urbanization – this is a fun read :
http://oprj.net/oprj-archive/climate-science/31/oprj-article-climate-science-31.pdf

Ren. Thanks very much, that is an excellent graph. So the surface area of Antarctic ice in their Autumn is at an all time high. The AGW’ers can’t even get facts right, because they were banging on about the collapse of the Western ice shelf earlier in the week, which clearly isn’t going to happen, because the Sun is still moving North and will be until 21st June!

milodonharlani

UKIP (Chris Monckton’s party) gains in local elections (although share down from last year) bode well for 2015 general. The Guardian says that no one knows how a fourth competitive party will affect outcome of races in a first past the post system.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/23/editorial-local-elections-small-earthquake-england

milodonharlani

Anything is possible says:
May 24, 2014 at 11:15 am
Thanks! Abstract:
“NASA GISS are currently the only group calculating global temperature estimates that explicitly adjust their weather station data for urbanization biases. In this study, their urbanization adjustment procedure was considered.
“A number of serious problems were found with their urbanization adjustments:
1.) The vast majority of their adjustments involved correcting for \urban cooling”, whereas urbanization bias is predominantly a warming bias.
2.) The net e ffect of their adjustments on their global temperature estimates was unrealistically low, particularly for recent decades, when urbanization bias is expected to have increased.
3.) When a sample of highly urbanized stations was tested, the adjustments successfully removed warming bias for the 1895-1980 period, but left the 1980s-2000s period eff ectively unadjusted.
“In an attempt to explain these unexpected problems, a critical assessment of their adjustment procedure was carried out. Several serious flaws in their procedure were identi fied, and recommendations to overcome these flaws were given.
“Overall, NASA GISS’ urbanization adjustments were found to be seriously flawed, unreliable and inadequate. Until their adjustment approach is substantially improved, their global temperature estimates should be treated with considerable caution.”
But you already knew that shameless lying was going on.

mbur

Gunga Din says:
Aren’t coal and oil natural? Weren’t they formed by natural processes? Unless those natural processes have ceased, coal and oil are being slowly renewed.
Just a thought I don’t recall being brought up before.

I thought of that when i read this:
http://www.pnnl.gov/news/release.aspx?id=1029
as always,
Thanks for the interesting articles and comments

ossqss
milodonharlani

davidmhoffer says:
May 24, 2014 at 9:35 am
Chris Edwards says:
May 24, 2014 at 8:25 am
The effect of slightly increased traces of carbon dioxide on other gases in the atmosphere is even less significant when you consider that the percentages commonly quoted are for dry air. Water vapor content varies from over 40,000 ppm in the tropics to trace amounts at the poles.
By volume, dry air contains ~780,840 ppm nitrogen, 209,470 oxygen, 9340 argon, 395 carbon dioxide, 18 neon, five helium & small amounts of other gases. Call it 7808 N2 molecules per 10,000 dry air molecules, 2095 O2, 93 Ar & now almost four CO2, with the rest negligible. So nature doesn’t really notice the extra molecule of CO2 (up from about three to four) per 10,000 dry air molecules gained since AD 1850, especially with 400 or more molecules of the GHG water vapor in the tropical mix.

Tonyb

Walt
I think it’s pretty poor. It depends on where the Icelandic lows or highs sit. When they are in a certain position cold weather affects much of the northern hemisphere whilst the arctic itself is relatively warm and vice versa.
Cet provides a reasonably proxy for NH temps according to many scientists and that is because Britain is in effect a giant weathervane affected by winds, pressure systems, rainfall, jet stream etc.It often runs counter cyclical to the arctic.
I don’t see that the arctic has the same parameterNDEA Britain and don’t really think ice cores have any great credibility.
Tonyb

I have been complaining that this site refuses to allow me to use my WordPress account but no one seemed to pay much attention to my story. Now Steve Goddard is complaining of the same issue.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2014/05/24/whats-up-with-that/#comment-356789
Can anyone here use the WordPress button to log on and post here anymore?

george e. conant

Gunga Din, there is also the distinct possibility / probability that petroleum is not a fossil fuel at all , rather , an abiotic produced material from the intense crustal pressures below ground. Tectonic plates pressing and grinding together literally squeezing oil out into fissures and making pools of oil deep below. So oil can be thought of as a mineral product, coal is truly a fossil fuel so far as I know. Matter is made from electrons , neutrons and protons (among other particles I reckon) my thought is YES , burning these materials are more or less renewable. Oil perhaps will never run out thus peak oil in my thinking is highly unlikely.

G’day guys n gals (any around BTW?),
I do not know if you have been bombarded with the solar roads, but I have. Between the maintenance, cleaning and efficiency I think this to be one of the smartest less applicable ideas around. But it is my 1,000ft opinion. I just can’t see them working:

http://www.solarroadways.com/intro.shtml

pottereaton

Gavin Schmidt on Revkins’s DotEarth:
The models are always wrong but they’re wonderful

ch

Science invoked with great authority to show that CO2 is guilty. WUWT disparaged en passant. Where are the holes in the argument?

Gunga Din says:
Aren’t coal and oil natural? Weren’t they formed by natural processes? Unless those natural processes have ceased, coal and oil are being slowly renewed.
Just a thought I don’t recall being brought up before.
_________________________________________________
“There is no doubt that our research proves that crude oil and natural gas are generated without the involvement of fossils. All types of bedrock can serve as reservoirs of oil,” says Vladimir Kutcherov, who adds that this is true of land areas that have not yet been prospected for these energy sources.”
http://www.viewzone.com/abioticoil.html
Oh, no! Now I’m a “Fossel Fuel” Denier.

“Oil, The 4th Renewable Resource”, Shawn Alli (November 20, 2012), 174 pages
“The first and last book you’ll ever need to understand oil and the myth of fossil fuels. The myth of fossil fuels and peak oil has been a part of the North American lifestyle for almost 100 years. Beginning first in the schools, children are anxious for an education but instead are indoctrinated to believe this deception. As a student grows up they hear the same message propagating through governments, media and various interest groups, eventually accepting it as a scientific fact. But the truth is now within your grasp in finding this book. In Oil, The 4th Renewable Resource, you’ll learn: o How the myth of fossil fuels begins.
o How oil corporations are taking advantage of this myth.
o The beginning of the abiotic oil theory in 1877.
o How the myth of global warming and oil corporations go hand in hand.
o Which renewable resource is the best.
o And what actions you can take to affect change in the schools and government policy.”

The Other Phil

Franciso, thanks for the link. Very entertaining.

milodonharlani;
So nature doesn’t really notice the extra molecule of CO2 (up from about three to four) per 10,000 dry air molecules gained since AD 1850, especially with 400 or more molecules of the GHG water vapor in the tropical mix.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
This is a common misunderstanding. As you rise in altitude, temperatures fall. That causes water to precipitate out. The higher you go, the less water vapour there is, and the more significant CO2 becomes in terms of ratio between the two. The bulk of the poorly named greenhouse effect thus occurs above the altitudes where water vapour exists in any significant amount.

Jimbo

I change my mind! Could this man be wrong twice? We will have to wait and see.

My 1975 ‘Cooling World’ Story Doesn’t Make Today’s Climate Scientists Wrong
…….(Inside Science) – “The central fact is that, after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the Earth seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century.” – Newsweek: April 28, 1975
That’s an excerpt from a story I wrote about climate science that appeared almost 40 years ago. Titled “The Cooling World,” it was remarkably popular; in fact it might be the only decades-old magazine story about science ever carried onto the set of a late-night TV talk show……
http://www.insidescience.org/content/my-1975-cooling-world-story-doesnt-make-todays-climate-scientists-wrong/1640

clipe

Bloke down the pub says:
May 24, 2014 at 6:33 am

I’ve just been watching an episode of Coast Australia, the BBC series that’s migrated to the antipodes. One of the talking heads on it was Tim Flannery. Good to see that Auntie found employment for him after he lost his job in Tony Abbots cuts. Te Hee.

Coast is a visually excellent series and Flannery seems to have been kept on a short leash.
iPlayer via Media Hint
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b044vfjc/coast-coast-australia-2-sydney

Jimbo

Humans may soon become hungry Zombie apocalypse cannibals according to Paul Ehrlich in a new prediction. There will also be resource wars.

Daily Mail – 23 May 2014
Will overpopulation drive us to eat our own DEAD? Controversial academic claims humanity is moving towards cannibalism at ‘ridiculous speed’
…..’We will soon be asking is it perfectly okay to eat the bodies of your dead because we’re all so hungry?,’ he told HuffPost live host Josh Zepps.
He added that humanity is ‘moving in that direction with a ridiculous speed.
‘In other words between now and 45 years from now, 2.5 billion people will be added to the planet.
‘We are moving towards resource wars.

Steve Oregon

A curious question.
If Mann and Trenberth discovered iron clad scientific evidence that CO2 emissions were meaningless to the climate would they tell anyone?

Lil Fella from OZ

What disturbs me most in this whole climate change debate is that many good people (such as have appeared on the web page) have had to give up many years of their life, at least 18 years stating the truth about science while on the other side it is a deceptive action filled with fabrication ‘science.’ In many cases it could be well over a quarter of their productive life!!! I would very much like to thank them for their sustained efforts.