Guest essay by Dr. Tom Sheahen
Q. On TV I saw that the ice in Antarctica is collapsing, and that will raise sea level and inundate cities. Others reports say this will take thousands of years. How serious is the problem?
What you are witnessing here is a result of confusion between the public perception of the ordinary meaning of words, and the very special definitions used in scientific discourse.
Geologists deal with changes in the earth that occur over epochs of millions of years. Anything that happens in less than 10,000 years is “sudden,” and something happening in only 1,000 years is “instantaneous.” To geologists, the word “collapse” is appropriate for a 10,000 year process.
A hot-topic in the media these days has to do with the West Antarctic Ice Shelf (WAIS), a region comprising about 8% of the ice covering Antarctica. Within that region, there are two glaciers that are sliding down to the sea at a steady pace, as glaciers always do. They comprise about 10% of the WAIS, less than 1% of Antarctic ice. This descent has been in progress for several thousand years, and is neither new nor man-caused. It will go on for a few thousand more, after which they’ll be gone. In the parlance of geology, those two glaciers are collapsing.
If that doesn’t sound to you like your usual meaning of the word “collapse,” you’re absolutely right. It’s a specialized geological term.
Unfortunately, the major media overlook the distinction of meanings, and then make the further generalization from two specific glaciers to the entire WAIS, and moreover to Antarctica in general. Scientists who point out the small actual glacier size (and volume of ice) are brushed aside in the rush to get a headline or a flamboyant sound byte that will keep the viewers tuned in. Words like unavoidable collapse carry a sense of foreboding.
This isn’t just a problem from geology. Confusion over the meaning of words used in science crops up frequently. Laws of physics (e.g., conservation of energy) are said to be true in general, meaning “always true.” But if a physicist says “that is generally true,” a non-scientist hears “that is usually true” – meaning “most of the time, but not always.” Neither is aware of the other’s interpretation.
The word “average” is easily misunderstood. For any set of data, about any topic, you can construct an average. But it may be irrelevant – a good example being the “average temperature of the Earth.” Regional and seasonal variations are so great that a single average number is meaningless. And yet people have such familiarity with the word “average” – batting averages, school grade averages, etc. — that it’s commonplace to believe that any statistic called an “average” represents something real.
Climate change is another prime example. In the ordinary sense of the term, everyone realizes that the climate changes, and there is no argument about it. However, there is a very special limited definition given to the term by the U.N. around 1990: “Climate Change” refers only to changes caused by mankind’s emissions of CO2. Under that restricted definition, anyone who doesn’t think that CO2 is the cause of the changes we’re experiencing is labeled a “denier” of Climate Change. The frequently-recited figure of “97% consensus” is too small for the percentage of scientists who recognize climate change in the ordinary sense of the term; it’s much closer to 100%. But in the specialized U.N. sense (about CO2 driving the change), there is widespread disagreement based on reliable opposing scientific data.
In the absence of quotation marks, italics or capitals, ordinary citizens have no idea that the controversy is rooted in radically different meanings of the same words.
Elected officials striving to be responsive to their constituents’ concerns are often pressured by advocacy groups who have latched onto an incorrect interpretation of words. Scientists are sometimes guilty of riding a bandwagon that formed when the public misunderstood and exaggerated their original meaning; perhaps it’s convenient, prestigious and financially advantageous to let that confusion continue uncorrected. The effect snowballs and leads to new laws being passed, with expensive new regulations. Years later, with nothing accomplished, people ask “Oh, is that what you really meant?” Then the blame game begins, after much taxpayer money went down the drain unnecessarily.
Even words like “increase” and “decrease” get distorted. When a budget (national, state or local) goes up, you might think that’s an increase. But if the amount is less than the rate of inflation, those wanting the money call it a decrease, a budget cut. The problem is particularly troublesome at election time, when politicians hurl accusations at their opponents. Without precise definitions, clarity is very elusive.
Unfortunately, attending to precise definitions takes time and seems boring. The media don’t want to run the risk of being boring, and so they take shortcuts and oversimplify. Consequently, a lot of people are misled by statements that use scientific words incorrectly.
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“In the ordinary sense of the term, everyone realizes that the climate changes”
Name one place on earth has had its climate change in the last 100 years.
Dr. Tom is on target for certain.
Upon watching the news the other day on the ice collapse, I had to explain the timing of “possible” events to my parents who thought Tampa was going to be underwater soon.
Sad but true example.
On another note, Lat snuck one in 😉
“””””…..Gary in Erko says:
May 21, 2014 at 6:53 pm
“Average temperature” is very much an incorrect term – It’s the midpoint between hot and cold extremes in a 24 hour period. I don’t think we have a mathematical term for this. It’s not the average temperature for the 24 hours and It’s not the median. Do we have an unambiguous scientifically recognised term for the midpoint of a range?……””””””
So Gary; let’s say we have a 24 hour maximum temperature of TM, and we have a 24 hour minimum Temperature of Tm.
So the mid point temperature mT is given by:-
mT = (TM + Tm) / 2.
Now imagine that we divide the temperature range, (TM – Tm) into an even integer number of equal segments; say 2N of them.
By this construction, we have an even number of “temperatures”, and by construction, mT is always the element in the middle of the range, no matter what the integer N is so long as it is greater than zero.
By any logical reasoning; mT fits the definition of the MEDIAN for and dataset.
In calculating the median of a data set; there never is ANY information for how long some set element exists. The set is a set of known numbers, and there is no time axis.
Now I agree with you that the midpoint mT is NOT a satisfactory substitute for Tav for what is actually a continuous time varying function.
But mT most certainly is the median value.
I can fully understand a scientist not understanding how the GP interprets a word. I feel victim to that myself one time. My job at the time was melting superintendent in an iron shop melting iron with coke and limestone. Small broken chips of coke called coke breeze were screened out and discarded but I collected it up in the spring to take to my father for boiling maple syrup.
Was late at night and the back of my truck was full of coke breeze tarpped down. The local police pulled me over for a burned out headlight and asked what I had in the back under the tarp at which point I said I had a load of coke. I quicklyI found myself spread eagle on the pavement, quite indignant at the rough treatment.
The police officer then asked what the black stuff was in the back of my truck at which point I replied “It’s Coke what the hell does it look like !” His reply was “You mean kinda like coal?” My reply was “Well its made from coal but its not coal its coke”.
The officer dusted me off, told me to get the headlight fixed and have a nice day. I was still fuming 20 miles down the road before I figured out the communication problem. I am sure there were laughs all around at the doughnut shop the next morning.
Dr. Sheahen said” Within that region, there are two glaciers that are sliding down to the sea at a steady pace, as glaciers always do.
The “steady” pace has doubled from the 80 billion tons/year in the 2005-2010 time period to 160 billion tons/year during the latest measurements. I wouldn’t call that a steady pace, I’d call it a rapidly increasing pace.
It’s amazing the amount of intentional CAGW disinformation (not misinformation) that exists in the general public. Most people are basically illiterate about science and are far too trusting of the MSM (although this trust is “collapsing”).
Often, when I show people hard evidence disproving their wrong CAGW assumptions, they simply say, “Well, 97% of scientists can’t be wrong, and I’m sure the scientists are well aware of that… Are you saying you know more than the scientists that hold PhDs in climatology?”
Then, when I try to explain the bogus nature of the “97%” meme, I get the eye roll, and some snide comment about conspiracy theories…
Once this CAGW hypothesis crashes and burns and lies smoldering on the trash heap of historic failed ideas, I’ll be amazed when these same people will boast of always being skeptical of CAGW…. at which time, I’ll be able to roll my eyes…
CAGW is truly, “A tale told by idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.”~ William Shakespear, Macbeth.
“Unprecedented” is my nomination for most abused word in a climate context. You just know that those who use it are ignorant of, or are deliberately ignoring, anything involving the Little Ice Age and before.
@george e. smith
Thanks for your comments but I disagree with your idea of median as it applies to a day of temperatures. Median is the middle value of a quantity of samples. In order to gain a real median (or quartile) we would need to sample the temperature at a regular interval during the day. The median for 24 hours sampled at 1 hour intervals would most probably not be equivalent to the median sampled at 5 minute intervals. Your method of dividing the range between max and min into whatever size equal increments doesn’t produce real world samples. Both average and median require real samples. Neither of them have any technical or scientific validity under their strict terminology via calculations from extremes.
This article is about misunderstandings due to terminology. The thing that’s called average temperature is not an average of the temperature – it’s the midpoint between extremes. I find it weird that anyone considers there’s a valid mathematical clue in an average of these local “averages” across the world and across time.
About 10 years ago, a 150 km ice shelf broke off in Antarctica. Anyway officials said it was caused when two collided, and there was no threat to shipping. It happens. But not due to climate change.
Lie. It is a Lie. They know it is a lie by the words chosen. To Lie.
The complicit media has created the opposite impression of what is transpiring in the Antarctic now.
This is referred to in many circles as a lie.
‘Only 1 x 2,500th of the entire atmospheric gas up in the sky is now CO2’ never did have quite the same appeal as ‘CO2 reaches 400ppm’. Thank goodness for my trusty Casio J-120T Electronic Calculator.
The specialized meaning of the term Climate ‘science’ was not addressed.
Inconvenient Truth == Convenient Misunderstanding
@Gary Young in Erko .. “Do we have an unambiguous scientifically recognised term for the midpoint of a range?”
I just found the term: ‘mid-range’ (or ‘arithmetic mean’). It is defined as: .. the (minimum number plus the maximum number) divided by two. When there are only two numbers in the range it is the same as the *colloquial ‘average’ (ie. the sum of a list of numbers divided by the number of elements in the list).
Maybe it would be better to take a reading for each hour during the 24 hour period. What you do with the resulting list of readings depends on what you want to achieve. Maybe you want to show how cold it can get during the mornings. In that case, you could try using the ‘mode’ or the reading that occurs the most in the list. .. Here is a diagram that compares the mean, median, and mode:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Comparison_mean_median_mode.svg
It also shows how the data can be skewed. (Called the ‘skewness’.)
Or, if you want to compare readings on a daily basis, maybe for a whole year or a number of years, you could use the arithmetic mean. Then you could determine if there was a *trend for the overall yearly readings to be increasing or decreasing. In that case, you would be using results that can be efficiently compared over the whole year (or years) — comparing apples with apples.
…. “I find it weird that anyone considers there’s a valid mathematical clue in an average of these local “averages” across the world and across time.”
I understand that point of view. But how else can we show when overall world temperatures were thought to be relatively warmer or relatively cooler? .. such as during the Roman period, Medieval period, and the ‘Little Ice Age’ (… as seen in the proxy records).
majormike1 says:
May 21, 2014 at 7:34 pm
My nomination is for “Robust”
How about a game of ‘Climate Change Bingo’?
The midpoint of a range, when listed in ascending or descending order, yes, it is called the median.
Quote: me @ur momisugly 9.06pm :-
“Maybe you want to show how cold it can get during the mornings. In that case, you could try using the ‘mode’ or the reading that occurs the most in the list.”
… That would only work if there were a large number of low temperatures for each hour during the mornings, and the temps increased gradually during the afternoons.
The word I want to mention is “normal”. It is a standard part of the National Weather Service data for every day. The so called normal low or high or rainfall or humidity, whatever, is actually the average of the last 30 years. With the constant variation of weather, to call that average normal is very misleading.
Jer0me says:
May 21, 2014 at 9:16 pm
How about a game of ‘Climate Change Bingo’?
Good suggestion Jer0me. Maybe you need to be more specific, ie. the type of ‘bingo’ played in a shady amusement arcade that smells of old chip fat which is next door to the dodgy Tarot Card lady at the far end of a dilapidated litter-strewn pier in a run-down seaside town. It’s ugly. It’s unpleasant. Yet people still fall for it.
Now it makes sense.
Another good example is ‘significant’. As in ‘97% of scientists agree that anthropogenic CO2 has caused significant warming’. To a layman, that means ‘large’. To a statistician it means discernible from noise.
John (Coleman), you beat me to it. The conflation of normal and average ‘does my head in’ to quote Shakespeare.
Was having to explain this very fact just the other day and found a useful mechanism. When, for instance, discussing that it’s not that common for any given date’s temperature to be bang on the average for that time of year (but that doesn’t mean it’s not normal), a useful rough analogy that people ‘get’ immediately is the old 2.4 children nuclear family; no one has the average number of children but does that mean that 1, 2 or 3 kids isn’t normal?
Cheers
Mark
The Pine Island Glacier is one of the west Antarctic glaciers they say is in risk of collapsing.
Pine Island Glacier moves about 1.5 kms/year. Every 5 to 7 years, a 10 km chuck of it breaks off and floats away. It has been recorded about 5 times now.
This is just what this glacier outflow channel does. One can pick an individual year and say the face has melted back by 10 kms versus the previous year or one could say it has increased by 9 kms versus where it was 6 years ago.. This December, right on schedule, a 10 km section broke off. If you measured the face from 2006 to 2012, one would have said it advanced 9 kms.
The climate scientists raising these alarm bells need to be clear about what a fast moving glacial outflow channel from the vast 100s of kms interior ice sheets is really about. They are not doing that.
Ah the difference between a scientific explanation by a scientist, and that of an alarmist using science sauce to flavour their biased confection of climate.
Mark Fawcett says:
May 21, 2014 at 10:13 pm
And almost everybody has more than the ‘average’ number of arms.